GOP primary between DPKdebator and me is very close, so I wouldn't make a winner. The one that wins is probably after a contested convention.
A General Election between me and Andriy would be weird, since we're both similar politically I think. In any case, I see two third party runs appearing, a left-democrat one against Andriy and a fiscal conservative one against me.
Ultimately, I think Andry's left-wing challenger hurts him more than me, especially in some key states; but nobody breaks 50% in the NPV.
Alancia: 342 Electoral Votes // 45% NPV
Andriy: 196 Electoral Votes // 38% NPV
Left-wing challenger: 0 Electoral Votes // 11% NPV
Fiscal conservative challenger 0 Electoral Votes // 5% NPV