Rise of the New Age Rockefeller Republican

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Rise of the New Age Rockefeller Republican

Since the surprising election win by Donald Trump; Republicans are left bracing themselves for a tough midterm after a string of major losses in local elections and special elections since Trumps Inauguration. However on top of just 2018 many in the party are concerned about how  the parties struggles with visible minorities and increasingly college educated whites will effect their future electoral prospects. It appears that while the party may have a lot of power now it is in increasingly shaky ground going forward.

While this TL is not meant be a prediction of the future it is designed to look at one realistic possibility for how future political events may play out. 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

April major events

April 6th-Thomas G. Bowman nominated to replace David Shulkin as VA Secretary

President Trump today announced he is replacing controversial VA Secretary David Shulkin who is alleged to have used taxpayer funds for personal travel. This move comes after a series of changes to Trumps cabinet and staff have occurred over the last several months. The President seemingly indicated more changes may be made over the next couple months.

April 24th-Debbie Lesko (R) elected to Arizona 8th Congressional District

Former State Senator Debbie Lesko won a special election to replace former Rep. Trent Franks in the Phoenix suburban district of Arizona 8. Despite holding this seat Republicans still saw a signification swing away from the Republican baseline in 2016.
Debbie Lesko (R) 53% (-5%)
Hiral Tipirneni (D) 44% (+7%)
Other 3% (-2%)
(Swing are from 2016 Pres. Vote as their was no Dem. candidate for this seat in 2016)

End of April Averages 2018
Trump Approval rating
Approve 42%
Disapprove 53%
Undecided 5%

Generic Ballot
Democrats 47%
Republicans 40%
Undecided 13%

[DKrol]

Go on...

[Pragmatic Conservative]

May major events

Major Primaries (All incumbents are assumed to be renominated unless otherwise stated. )
Indiana Republican Senate Primary
Todd Rokita 51%
Luke Messer 29%
Mike Braun 20%

Ohio Republican Governor Primary
Mike DeWine 57%
Mary Taylor 43%

Ohio Democratic Governor Primary
Richard Cordray 51%
Dennis Kucinich 33%
Other 16%

West Virginia Republican Senate Primary
Evan Jenkins 35%
Patrick Morrisey 32%
Don Blankenship 30%
Other 5%

Idaho Republican Governor Primary
Brad Little 37%
Raul Labrador 35%
Tommy Ahlquist 21%
Other 7%

Georgia Republican Governor Primary
Casey Cagle 37%
Hunter Hill 23%
Brian Kemp 21%
Other 19%

Runoff
Casey Cagle 52%
Hunter Hill 48%

Georgia Democratic Governor Primary
Stacey Abrams 56%
Stacey Evans 44%

May to be continued

[Pragmatic Conservative]

May major events continued

May 3rd: Mexican and Canadian officials withdraw from NAFTA negotiations claiming that their was no realistic path to a deal
Both Canadian and Mexican officials today stated that they would not continue to entertain NAFTA negotiations after saying their is not a realistic path to a deal. President Trump blasts both countries as being stubborn; suggesting that he was fully prepared to make concessions to get a deal done and both Mexico and Canada were uncooperative when it came to negotiations. Trump has expanded his steal and Aluminum tariffs to include both Canada and Mexico. The president has threatened to withdraw from NAFTA if neither Canada and Mexico go back to the bargaining table.


May 15th:Donald Trump has reached an agreement with North Korea to end the countries nuclear weapon threat
The Nuclear Weapon threat from North Korea may be over as the USA has come to an agreement that will see North Korea end its nuclear weapon program and disarm its current nukes. The current agreement will see the following:
-North Korea disarms its current nukes and ends its nuclear weapon program
-North Korea releases all American prisoners held captive in North Korea back to the USA.
-The USA lifts all sanctions on North Korea
-The USA will provide 2.5 billion in aids money to help alleviate North Korea’s mass poverty.
The deal is highly controversial among Senators from both parties who see the deal as not containing enough controls to prevent North Korea from violating the agreement. A poll of general voters shows 45% support the deal and 43% oppose the deal. The deal was eventually ratified by the Senate (54-46) with significant opposition.

End of May Averages 2018
Trump Approval rating
Approve 40% (-2)
Disapprove 54%(+1)
Undecided 6%(+1)

Generic Ballot
Democrats 49%(+2)
Republicans 40%(-)
Undecided 11%(-2)

[DPKdebator]

I'm intrigued...

[Pragmatic Conservative]

June-August major events

(I will try and go at a bit of a faster pace)

Cabinet Changes

June 11th-Ben Carson announces his resignation as HUD Secretary effective June 30th; Carson stresses that he would like to return to work in the private sector. Carson had fallen under controversy over his use of funding furnishing his office. President Trump nominated Pam Patenaude to replace Carson at HUD.

Major Supreme Court Rulings
The Supreme Court made three major rulings at the end of June all along 5-4 decisions. 
1. Found that Unions can not mandate payment of fees from non union members for collective bargaining purposes.
2. Found that religious beliefs are not a sufficient reason for refusing service to individuals.
3. Ruled that deliberate partisan gerrymandering is unconstitutional; mandating that the efficiency gap must be used in redistricting. The Supreme Court however mandated that the ruling should only directly take effect for the next redistricting session for all states; however mandated that Maryland and Wisconsin redraw their maps for 2020.

Next Major primary results for June-August

[Deblano]

I'm assuming based on this title the GOP loses BIGLY in 2018 and the GOP moderates come back with a vengeance?

Can't wait to see what comes next.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

May major events

Major Primaries (All incumbents are assumed to be renominated unless otherwise stated. )
Indiana Republican Senate Primary
Todd Rokita 51%
Luke Messer 29%
Mike Braun 20%

Ohio Republican Governor Primary
Mike DeWine 57%
Mary Taylor 43%

Ohio Democratic Governor Primary
Richard Cordray 51%
Dennis Kucinich 33%
Other 16%

West Virginia Republican Senate Primary
Evan Jenkins 35%
Patrick Morrisey 32%
Don Blankenship 30%
Other 5%

Idaho Republican Governor Primary
Brad Little 37%
Raul Labrador 35%
Tommy Ahlquist 21%
Other 7%

Georgia Republican Governor Primary
Casey Cagle 37%
Hunter Hill 23%
Brian Kemp 21%
Other 19%

Runoff
Casey Cagle 52%
Hunter Hill 48%

Georgia Democratic Governor Primary
Stacey Abrams 56%
Stacey Evans 44%

May to be continued

What about the Ohio Republican senatorial primary? It will be held at the same day as Indiana.

Jim Renacci won with roughly 70% of the vote. I don't show primaries that aren't overly competitive or for races where the winner has only a small chance at victory in the general.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I'm assuming based on this title the GOP loses BIGLY in 2018 and the GOP moderates come back with a vengeance?

Can't wait to see what comes next.

More or less yes; though I don't want to spoil everything right away.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

So what happens in NC-09?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

June-August major primaries

California Senate
Dianne Feinstein 40%
Kevin de León 19%
Other (none got more then 10% each) 39%

Total Party Vote
Democrats 63%
Republicans 32%
Other 5%

California Governor
Gavin Newsom 33%
John Cox 19%
Travis Allen 16%
Antonio Villaraigosa 13%
John Chiang 9%
Other 10%


Total Party Vote
Democrats 60%
Republicans 37%
Other 3%

In the competitive house races Republicans manage to have CA-48 and CA-39; saving two house seats that may have gone Democrat otherwise. However Democrats were able to advance a candidate to the top two in all the other house races.

Iowa Democratic Governor Primary
Nate Boulton 31%
Fred Hubbell 25%
Andy McGuire 22%
Other 30%

Montana Republican Senate Primary
Matt Rosendale 47%
Troy Downing 23%
Russell Fagg 21%
Other 9%

[America Needs R'hllor]

This isn't looking that rosey for Democrats so far... I'm hoping the so-called "Rockfeller Republicans" aren't Trumpists but actual moderates

[Pragmatic Conservative]

So what happens in NC-09?

Robert Pit­tenger is the Republican nominee narrowly holding back a primary challange 40-37 and the Democratic candidate is Dan McCready. 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

The Home Stretch

(This will be the final update before the midterm posts)

End of August Averages 2018
Trump Approval rating
Approve 40% (-)
Disapprove 55%(+1)
Undecided 5%(-1)

Generic Ballot
Democrats 51%(+2)
Republicans 41%(+1)
Undecided 8%(-3)

Ayanna Pressley defeated Mike Capuano for the Democratic  nomination in MA-7. Brianna Wu also defeated Stephen Lynch for the Democratic nomination for MA-8. These are the only two instances of incumbents losing renomination for Congressional races in 2018.

With the midterm fast approaching Congress has been unable to pass much of anything major. Republicans have been unable to formulate a Infrastructure bill; while any negotiations on DACA have seemed to stall. Democrats have pledged that DACA renewal will be priority #1 if they recapture Congress along with passing a moderate infrastructure bill.Republicans meanwhile have been running commercials non stop stating Democrats will spend all their time impeaching Trump; this is despite Pelosi's claims that impeachment would only be entertained if Muller recommends so.
President Donald Trump and his inner circle were interviewed by the Mueller team in late October; with the goal of wrapping up the investigation by January 2019.

From August Republicans held on to OH-12 with reduced margins
Ohio 12 Special Congressional election
Kevin Bacon 55% (-11%)
Danny O'Connor 44% (+11)
Other 1%

I will be showing Midterm results state by state with county maps. Please note I will show individual results for state wide races; I will only show which party won for House seats and just changes in margins for state legislatures. Please feel free to ask questions for detailed results.

Eve of Election Day Averages 2018
Trump Approval rating
Approve 41% (+1)
Disapprove 56%(+1)
Undecided 3%(-2)

Generic Ballot
Democrats 53%(+2)
Republicans 45%(+4)
Undecided 2%(-6)

[Idaho Conservative]

June-August major events

(I will try and go at a bit of a faster pace)

Cabinet Changes

June 11th-Ben Carson announces his resignation as HUD Secretary effective June 30th; Carson stresses that he would like to return to work in the private sector. Carson had fallen under controversy over his use of funding furnishing his office. President Trump nominated Pam Patenaude to replace Carson at HUD.

Major Supreme Court Rulings
The Supreme Court made three major rulings at the end of June all along 5-4 decisions. 
1. Found that Unions can not mandate payment of fees from non union members for collective bargaining purposes.
2. Found that religious beliefs are not a sufficient reason for refusing service to individuals.
3. Ruled that deliberate partisan gerrymandering is unconstitutional; mandating that the efficiency gap must be used in redistricting. The Supreme Court however mandated that the ruling should only directly take effect for the next redistricting session for all states; however mandated that Maryland and Wisconsin redraw their maps for 2020.

Next Major primary results for June-August

so wait, is this how the court would rule if the Rockefellers were in charge?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

June-August major events

(I will try and go at a bit of a faster pace)

Cabinet Changes

June 11th-Ben Carson announces his resignation as HUD Secretary effective June 30th; Carson stresses that he would like to return to work in the private sector. Carson had fallen under controversy over his use of funding furnishing his office. President Trump nominated Pam Patenaude to replace Carson at HUD.

Major Supreme Court Rulings
The Supreme Court made three major rulings at the end of June all along 5-4 decisions. 
1. Found that Unions can not mandate payment of fees from non union members for collective bargaining purposes.
2. Found that religious beliefs are not a sufficient reason for refusing service to individuals.
3. Ruled that deliberate partisan gerrymandering is unconstitutional; mandating that the efficiency gap must be used in redistricting. The Supreme Court however mandated that the ruling should only directly take effect for the next redistricting session for all states; however mandated that Maryland and Wisconsin redraw their maps for 2020.

Next Major primary results for June-August

so wait, is this how the court would rule if the Rockefellers were in charge?

No this is how the current Supreme Court ruled on these issues. Parties generally need to lose elections first before they change; so you won’t see any real shift until  after the midterms. I will post the house results tomorrow (completed the map but have to upload it to atlas) and can say Democrats pick up 55 house seats.

[Idaho Conservative]

I agree on the union one, but I think the baker is going to win in the cake case(which is a VERY good thing).  Not sure about gerrymandering.  If they have any regard for precedent, they will uphold the gerrymandering, but Kennedy does have a mind of his own.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

House Results

Map:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1h_jfUNraRiQW5qeEJkVkpvMDBsSkwtOFppb3hNZzhzbno4

Democrats 250 seats (+55) 55%
Republicans 185 seats (-55) 44%
Other 0 seats (-) 1%

Democrats made major gains in the House wining several traditionally republicans suburban seats as well as a few rural seats.

[MycroftCZ]

Like this so far! Keep it up!

[MRX]

House Results

Map:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1h_jfUNraRiQW5qeEJkVkpvMDBsSkwtOFppb3hNZzhzbno4

[Democrats 250 seats (+55) 55%
Republicans 190 seats (-55) 44%
Other 0 seats (-) 1%

Democrats made major gains in the House wining several traditionally republicans suburban seats as well as a few rural seats.

You need to adjust your map to include the new districts for PA.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

House Results

Map:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1h_jfUNraRiQW5qeEJkVkpvMDBsSkwtOFppb3hNZzhzbno4

[Democrats 250 seats (+55) 55%
Republicans 190 seats (-55) 44%
Other 0 seats (-) 1%

Democrats made major gains in the House wining several traditionally republicans suburban seats as well as a few rural seats.

You need to adjust your map to include the new districts for PA.

Yes I am aware of that. However because of the fact PA new district lines only went into effect a few weeks ago; the template I found online had the old lines. 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I will be doing a live election night format for the Senate and Governor races for this TL.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night 2018 Your Voice Your Vote


6:00 PM EST:
Wolf Blitzer: Good evening after months of campaigning and hours of voting we are ready for an exciting night in both the House and Senate. Tonight in particular we will be preparing for several close Senate battles in North Dakota, Montana, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee that will determine control of the Senate. We also expect many close Governor races in Florida, Nevada, NH, Wisconsin, Connecticut, and Ohio. So buckle up it's going to be a long night. Let's first send it over to Jake Tapper who will go over the Democrats path to a Senate majority.   

Jake Tapper: Thanks Wolf! Good evening to all of you who are watching what should be an interesting and exciting election night. Currently Republicans hold a narrow 51-49 majority in the Senate; now for Dems. to recapture the senate they'll need to first off run or come close to running the table with their own seats this means winning vulnerable seats in Indiana, Missouri, ND and Montana. Next Dems. will need to win both Arizona and Nevada and if they lose one seat Tennessee. We do give Beto O'Rourke an outside chance in Texas but it's probably more likely that Dems. run the table tonight then win in Texas.

Wolf Blitzer: We will be back around 7pm est for our first projections.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

7 pm est:

Wolf Blitzer: Polls have closed in South Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, Vermont, Kentucky and Indiana. For senate we can project independent senator Bernie Sanders will win re-election in Vermont and Democratic Senator Tim Kaine will win re-election in Virginia. Indiana is too close to call

Turning to Governor races we can project  South Carolina Republican Governor Henry McMaster has been re-elected and in Vermont it is too early to call with Phil Scott in the lead but only narrowly above the all important 50% threshold in our exit poll. In Georgia the race is too close to call.


Let’s take a live look at the current results (projected results are shown at 100%)

Vermont Senate
Bernie Sanders 73%
John MacGovern 23%
Other 5%

Virgina Senate
Tim Kaine 55%
Corey Stewart 43%
Other 2%

Indiana Senate 12%
Todd Rokita 52%
Joe Donnelly 46%
Other 2%

Vermont Governor 1%
Phil Scott 52%
Matt Dunne 44%
Other 4%

Georgia Governor 1%
Casey Cagle 66%
Stacey Abrams 30%
Other 4%

South Carolina Governor
Henry McMaster 55%
James Smith 43%
Other 2%

We will pass it over for exit polls!