State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Wasnt surprised by the D underpreformance, the Ds also underpreformed in minority based seats in GA and FL. What did surprise me is how much they underpreformed, almost 25 points!

This can mean two things:
A. Hurd is likely to overpreform results, and Latino turnout will be rather weak in 2018

B. This means nothing, as its just the typical drop in turnout in minority based seats when its not election day

I don't know why they aren't turning out, given the rather...urgent situation emanating from the White House right now. 

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wasnt surprised by the D underpreformance, the Ds also underpreformed in minority based seats in GA and FL. What did surprise me is how much they underpreformed, almost 25 points!

This can mean two things:
A. Hurd is likely to overpreform results, and Latino turnout will be rather weak in 2018

B. This means nothing, as its just the typical drop in turnout in minority based seats when its not election day

I don't know why they aren't turning out, given the rather...urgent situation emanating from the White House right now. 

I know right.

[Zaybay]

Wasnt surprised by the D underpreformance, the Ds also underpreformed in minority based seats in GA and FL. What did surprise me is how much they underpreformed, almost 25 points!

This can mean two things:
A. Hurd is likely to overpreform results, and Latino turnout will be rather weak in 2018

B. This means nothing, as its just the typical drop in turnout in minority based seats when its not election day

I don't know why they aren't turning out, given the rather...urgent situation emanating from the White House right now. 

I know right.

I dont know either. I mean, we have seen this before, in the FL state elections and the GA state elections, those not held on the primary date, but this drop is huge. Its probably a combination of both A and B, IMO.

Edit: Apparently, turnout overall was abysmal. Im going to try to find the numbers.

[Beet]

Wasnt surprised by the D underpreformance, the Ds also underpreformed in minority based seats in GA and FL. What did surprise me is how much they underpreformed, almost 25 points!

This can mean two things:
A. Hurd is likely to overpreform results, and Latino turnout will be rather weak in 2018

B. This means nothing, as its just the typical drop in turnout in minority based seats when its not election day

I don't know why they aren't turning out, given the rather...urgent situation emanating from the White House right now. 

It's almost as if they are just trying to get on with their lives and don't always feel the need to vote in an ethnically tribalistic way.

[IceSpear]

Who had the bright idea to unban Andrew after like 2 seconds just so he could start up the same schtick for the 47th time? The mods are starting to make Charlie Brown look distrustful and skeptical of Lucy by comparison.

[NOVA Green]

The only thing a Democratic loss would tell me here is that the NYT's poll on TX-23 is probably accurate, considering how much the two overlap.

Started a thread on TX CD-23 a few weeks back upon special request of an Atlas poster, spent about Ten hours pulling raw precinct data and sifting numbers, but nobody appeared interested, so I haven't really spent much time on the project recently....

Why spend tons of time and investment on just one CD outside of SE season, versus other activities?

Thoughts about TX CD-23?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=300604.0

[YE]

Who had the bright idea to unban Andrew after like 2 seconds just so he could start up the same schtick for the 47th time? The mods are starting to make Charlie Brown look distrustful and skeptical of Lucy by comparison.

He was only banned from the Congressional board.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who had the bright idea to unban Andrew after like 2 seconds just so he could start up the same schtick for the 47th time? The mods are starting to make Charlie Brown look distrustful and skeptical of Lucy by comparison.

The Dems deserve every ounce of criticism and limo liberal trolling they're getting. This result was embarrassing and there's no excuse for it.

[IceSpear]

Who had the bright idea to unban Andrew after like 2 seconds just so he could start up the same schtick for the 47th time? The mods are starting to make Charlie Brown look distrustful and skeptical of Lucy by comparison.

The Dems deserve every ounce of criticism and limo liberal trolling they're getting. This result was embarrassing and there's no excuse for it.

Maybe so, but pretending a single obscure low turnout state legislature special election can be extrapolated to the nationwide political environment while ignoring everything else is the definition of trolling. Just more of the same intellectual disingenuousness designed to annoy people and provoke responses, which of course it accomplished with flying colors. Even hofoid's "cave bump" theory looks like scholarly genius by comparison.

[smoltchanov]

If Flores actually wins, then it means that Russians hacked the election totals to rig the results. No other rational explanation exists.

[snark]Of course - we did. We are SO interested in Texas state Senate race......[/snark]

[smoltchanov]

If Flores actually wins, then it means that Russians hacked the election totals to rig the results. No other rational explanation exists.

Lol. Mother Russia was looking out for us tonight.

Mother always cares about her stupid children)))

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

When Flores ran

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

When Flores ran for this seat in 2016 and lost he received almost FOUR TIMES as many votes as he did tonight.

That's how bad turnout was.

[smoltchanov]

When Flores ran for this seat in 2016 and lost he received almost FOUR TIMES as many votes as he did tonight.

That's how bad turnout was.

Well, if people don't care about who represents them - what can you do? Only - accept their choice. It will be interesting, BTW, to see how Flores votes in the state Senate: whether he will be closer to "ideologues" or "pragmatists"...

[Adam Griffin]

As has already been alluded to by multiple posters, this wasn't particularly surprising. Areas where minorities - and in particular, low-propensity blocs such as young people, Latinos and Asians - disproportionately underperform in special elections. This is just like when the Republicans won a State Senate seat in GA by 2 points in 2015 that voted for Obama both times by 50 points. The GOP incumbent lost by 51 points in 2016.

I don't know the specifics of this district (yet), but if it's the slightest amount majority-Democratic in normal elections, it'll likely flip back in November.

Type	State	Dist	Date	Runoff	'16 Mar	'16 P Mar	Special Mar	Swing (Avg)
Senate	TX	19	9/18/18		D+15	D+12	R+6	R+20

[smoltchanov]

As has already been alluded to by multiple posters, this wasn't particularly surprising. Areas where minorities - and in particular, low-propensity blocs such as young people, Latinos and Asians - disproportionately underperform in special elections. This is just like when the Republicans won a State Senate seat in GA by 2 points in 2015 that voted for Obama both times by 50 points. The GOP incumbent lost by 51 points in 2016.

I don't know the specifics of this district (yet), but if it's the slightest amount majority-Democratic in normal elections, it'll likely flip back in November.

Type	State	Dist	Date	Runoff	'16 Mar	'16 P Mar	Special Mar	Swing (Avg)
Senate	TX	19	9/18/18		D+15	D+12	R+6	R+20

IIUC - Flores is now state Senator until November 2020.

[Adam Griffin]

As has already been alluded to by multiple posters, this wasn't particularly surprising. Areas where minorities - and in particular, low-propensity blocs such as young people, Latinos and Asians - disproportionately underperform in special elections. This is just like when the Republicans won a State Senate seat in GA by 2 points in 2015 that voted for Obama both times by 50 points. The GOP incumbent lost by 51 points in 2016.

I don't know the specifics of this district (yet), but if it's the slightest amount majority-Democratic in normal elections, it'll likely flip back in November.

Type	State	Dist	Date	Runoff	'16 Mar	'16 P Mar	Special Mar	Swing (Avg)
Senate	TX	19	9/18/18		D+15	D+12	R+6	R+20

IIUC - Flores is now state Senator until November 2020.

Oh, that sounds right: I forgot they have four-year terms.

[Brittain33]

Who had the bright idea to unban Andrew after like 2 seconds just so he could start up the same schtick for the 47th time? The mods are starting to make Charlie Brown look distrustful and skeptical of Lucy by comparison.

I don't believe LimoLiberal was banned from the Gubernatorial/Statewide board, only the Congressional board.

[Politician]

I think this helps prove that the rust-belt is still the best target for Democrats. Some Clinton or narrow Trump suburban districts are worth targeting as well. Hispanic turnout is incredibly unreliable and Ortiz Jones is weaker than Gallego, so Hurd should survive.

[LimoLiberal]

The evidence is mounting, and it ain't pretty:


1. TX-23 polls show Hurd easily winning and Latino turnout weak.
2. SD-19 special elections shows swings to Republicans in heavily Latino areas.
3. Polls/primaries in CA-21, CA-39, CA-25, FL-26, and FL-27 all show Democrats underperforming Hillary numbers - by a lot.
4. New Nevada polls show Democrats, Arizona Senate race has become very tight after Sinema seemed to have a clear lead for months.
5. Ted Cruz is surging in Texas.

The blue wave will be irrelevant in Hispanic heavy areas. Thus, I am changing my rating of the House from Lean D (where I have had it for about a month) to Lean R. Once sure pickups, like TX-23, CA-25, CA-39, and FL-27 look different and democratic candidates are even struggling in sunbelt districts with a small minority population like TX-07 and AR-02.

The blue wave is over.

[ON Progressive]

The evidence is mounting, and it ain't pretty:


1. TX-23 polls show Hurd easily winning and Latino turnout weak.
2. SD-19 special elections shows massive swings to Republicans in heavily Latino areas.
3. Polls/primaries in CA-21, CA-39, CA-25, FL-26, and FL-27 all show Democrats disastrously and devastatingly underperforming Hillary numbers - by a lot.
4. New Nevada polls show Democrats collapsing, Arizona Senate race has become very tight after Sinema seemed to have a clear lead for months.
5. Ted Cruz is surging in Texas.

The blue wave will be irrelevant in Hispanic heavy areas. Thus, I am changing my rating of the House from Lean D (where I have had it for about a month) to Lean R. Once sure pickups, like TX-23, CA-25, CA-39, and FL-27 look drastically different and democratic candidates are even struggling in sunbelt districts with a small minority population like TX-07 and AR-02.

The blue wave is over.

Let me break down this trainwreck of a post one step at a time, even though it's not going to convince concern trolls like you about anything:

1. Polls can't tell you about Latino turnout at all. I hate when people explain poll results by saying "THERE'S LOW LATINO/(insert whatever subgroup) TURNOUT IN THIS AREA IN MIDTERMS" because polls can't predict turnout.

2. How much of that SD-19 swing was because turnout dropped hard for an obscure special election, thus meaning the electorate could've been much whiter than the actual demographics? It'll probably be a significantly more Hispanic electorate in 2018, let alone 2020 when this seat comes back up again.

3. CA-21 was never on the board at all because that area has laughable turnout AND a strong incumbent. The CA-39 poll had Trump approval at even in a Clinton +9 seat which isn't believable at all. That was also probably our toughest of the OC seats. CA-25 is still a tossup, given that Knight is only up 3 and he's under 50 in a 42-52 Trump approval seat.

FL-26 was always going to be tough because the GOP incumbent is really well liked (and even that isn't preventing his race from being within 3 points AND below 50 against an opponent with 32% name recognition LOL), and the two FL-27 polls are internals. One of those internals is from McLaughlin, which is a notoriously terrible firm that's missed races by 30+ points consistently. The other is from a random firm I've never heard of, and it could very well be just being pushed out to tell people "DONATE TO ME!!!!!"

4. The Nevada polls are in line with what we've seen in other Nevada polls, and Nevada polls have a LONG history of underestimating Democrats, as this post by IceSpear shows: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=301205.msg6407307#msg6407307

5. What surge? We have two outlier polls with Cruz +9 and O'Rourke +2, which cancel out largely to be a Cruz +4-5 race. Cruz +4 or Cruz +5 would be very much in line with what the race has been stuck at for months.

[Zaybay]

The evidence is mounting, and it ain't pretty:


1. TX-23 polls show Hurd easily winning and Latino turnout weak.
2. SD-19 special elections shows massive swings to Republicans in heavily Latino areas.
3. Polls/primaries in CA-21, CA-39, CA-25, FL-26, and FL-27 all show Democrats disastrously and devastatingly underperforming Hillary numbers - by a lot.
4. New Nevada polls show Democrats collapsing, Arizona Senate race has become very tight after Sinema seemed to have a clear lead for months.
5. Ted Cruz is surging in Texas.

The blue wave will be irrelevant in Hispanic heavy areas. Thus, I am changing my rating of the House from Lean D (where I have had it for about a month) to Lean R. Once sure pickups, like TX-23, CA-25, CA-39, and FL-27 look drastically different and democratic candidates are even struggling in sunbelt districts with a small minority population like TX-07 and AR-02.

The blue wave is over.

Let me break down this trainwreck of a post one step at a time, even though it's not going to convince concern trolls like you about anything:

1. Polls can't tell you about Latino turnout at all. I hate when people explain poll results by saying "THERE'S LOW LATINO/(insert whatever subgroup) TURNOUT IN THIS AREA IN MIDTERMS" because polls can't predict turnout.

2. How much of that SD-19 swing was because turnout dropped hard for an obscure special election, thus meaning the electorate could've been much whiter than the actual demographics? It'll probably be a significantly more Hispanic electorate in 2018, let alone 2020 when this seat comes back up again.

3. CA-21 was never on the board at all because that area has laughable turnout AND a strong incumbent. The CA-39 poll had Trump approval at even in a Clinton +9 seat which isn't believable at all. That was also probably our toughest of the OC seats. CA-25 is still a tossup, given that Knight is only up 3 and he's under 50 in a 42-52 Trump approval seat.

FL-26 was always going to be tough because the GOP incumbent is really well liked (and even that isn't preventing his race from being within 3 points AND below 50 against an opponent with 32% name recognition LOL), and the two FL-27 polls are internals. One of those internals is from McLaughlin, which is a notoriously terrible firm that's missed races by 30+ points consistently. The other is from a random firm I've never heard of, and it could very well be just being pushed out to tell people "DONATE TO ME!!!!!"

4. The Nevada polls are in line with what we've seen in other Nevada polls, and Nevada polls have a LONG history of underestimating Democrats, as this post by IceSpear shows: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=301205.msg6407307#msg6407307

5. What surge? We have two outlier polls with Cruz +9 and O'Rourke +2, which cancel out largely to be a Cruz +4-5 race. Cruz +4 or Cruz +5 would be very much in line with what the race has been stuck at for months.

You are talking to Limo, there is no point in using logic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Limo was right and y'all were wrong, deal with it.

Wow. He just kept picking the Republican until one finally won. Wow. So impressive.

Country saying: even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then.

[Torie]

The evidence is mounting, and it ain't pretty:


1. TX-23 polls show Hurd easily winning and Latino turnout weak.
2. SD-19 special elections shows massive swings to Republicans in heavily Latino areas.
3. Polls/primaries in CA-21, CA-39, CA-25, FL-26, and FL-27 all show Democrats disastrously and devastatingly underperforming Hillary numbers - by a lot.
4. New Nevada polls show Democrats collapsing, Arizona Senate race has become very tight after Sinema seemed to have a clear lead for months.
5. Ted Cruz is surging in Texas.

The blue wave will be irrelevant in Hispanic heavy areas. Thus, I am changing my rating of the House from Lean D (where I have had it for about a month) to Lean R. Once sure pickups, like TX-23, CA-25, CA-39, and FL-27 look drastically different and democratic candidates are even struggling in sunbelt districts with a small minority population like TX-07 and AR-02.

The blue wave is over.

Less is more LL. And all of that "extreme hyperbole" fits right in to the clarified definition of trolling. Don't do this on any thread that I moderate, particularly when I am in a cranky mood, like now.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The evidence is mounting, and it ain't pretty:


1. TX-23 polls show Hurd easily winning and Latino turnout weak.
2. SD-19 special elections shows massive swings to Republicans in heavily Latino areas.
3. Polls/primaries in CA-21, CA-39, CA-25, FL-26, and FL-27 all show Democrats disastrously and devastatingly underperforming Hillary numbers - by a lot.
4. New Nevada polls show Democrats collapsing, Arizona Senate race has become very tight after Sinema seemed to have a clear lead for months.
5. Ted Cruz is surging in Texas.

The blue wave will be irrelevant in Hispanic heavy areas. Thus, I am changing my rating of the House from Lean D (where I have had it for about a month) to Lean R. Once sure pickups, like TX-23, CA-25, CA-39, and FL-27 look drastically different and democratic candidates are even struggling in sunbelt districts with a small minority population like TX-07 and AR-02.

The blue wave is over.

Less is more LL. And all of that "extreme hyperbole" fits right in to the clarified definition of trolling. Don't do this on any thread that I moderate, particularly when I am in a cranky mood, like now.

Also, most of his post isn't even on topic. TX-07 is not a statewide election, LL is just mentioning it here as a way to avoid his ban.