State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[MAINEiac4434]

GOP Candidate for Maine's 124th District Special Election Made Racist, Misogynist Posts on Social Media

Seat is Safe D anyway, but the Maine GOP still isn't sending their best.

[smoltchanov]

GOP Candidate for Maine's 124th District Special Election Made Racist, Misogynist Posts on Social Media

Seat is Safe D anyway, but the Maine GOP still isn't sending their best.

May be it preserves them for winnable disticts, and runs idiots in districts like this?

[PApolitics]

PA STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 114 SPECIAL OVERVIEW
In October of 2018, Democrat State Rep. Sid Michaels Kavulich died. He had served in the State Assembly since 2011, and was unopposed in the upcoming election. Speaker of the House Mike Turzai announced that a special election would be held on March 12.

The 114th District is entirely within Lackawanna County. It snakes through the county, avoiding the City of Scranton but including several of it's subrubs. This district is interesting for a few reasons. First, it includes areas and demographics have begun to move in different directions. In the north-central region sits The Abingtons, a traditionally Republican, suburban well-off area that voted for Romney in 2012, but swung to Clinton in 2016. Then there are towns in the southern and eastern edges of the district that were traditionally working class, Democrat neighborhoods, like Carbondale and Old Forge. These places swung heavily to Trump in 2016. Overall, Trump won the district with around 52%, a big change from 2008, when Obama fell just short of 60% here. However, in 2018, it swung back sharply to the Democrats. Tom Wolf, Bob Casey, and Matt Cartwright all won the district by double digits.

The candidates for the special election are Old Forge School District President Frank Scavo (R), and registered nurse Bridget Malloy Kosierowski (D) of Clarks Summit. With the back and forth of this district recently, it is hard to tell who is favored, but Scavo does have one advantage over Kosierowski. He was the Republican nominee for State Senate in 2018, which means he should have more name recognition going into the campaign.

As of right now, I personally would rate the race Lean D, due to the recent results and political environment. But, of course, anything could happen before March 12.

[Virginiá]

Special election watch?

https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/court-records-arizona-lawmaker-david-stringer-charged-child-porn-1983-11183294

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[YE]

^Didn’t we almost flip Arizona State Senate last near? If so, this could be big. I’m guessing the seat isn’t competitive though since Prescott isn’t exactly left wing.

[Virginiá]

^Didn’t we almost flip Arizona State Senate last near? If so, this could be big. I’m guessing the seat isn’t competitive though since Prescott isn’t exactly left wing.

>= 66% Trump district iirc

[Landslide Lyndon]

Arizona doesn't have special elections for the state legislature, IIRC.

[PApolitics]

Republican State Senator Don White of Pennsylvania has announced his resignation today, triggering a special election. He won in 2016 with 68% of the vote.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results coming in from Texas HD 145:


RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 145               
Elias De La Garza   DEM   54   3.41%   54   3.41%
Oscar Del Toro   DEM   54   3.41%   54   3.41%
Martha Elena Fierro   REP   309   19.51%   309   19.51%
Ruben Dario Gonsalez   DEM   11   0.69%   11   0.69%
Clayton Hunt   LIB   12   0.75%   12   0.75%
Christina Morales   DEM   586   37.01%   586   37.01%
Alfred Moreno   DEM   27   1.70%   27   1.70%
Melissa Noriega   DEM   530   33.48%   530   33.48%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      1,583      1,583   
Precincts Reported      1   of   46 Precincts      2.17%

Results at: https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/public/jan29_338_state.htm

District 79 will be here when it comes in: https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/public/jan29_339_state.htm

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 79               
Arthur "Art" Fierro   DEM   1,397   50.80%   1,397   50.80%
Michiel "Mike" Noe   DEM   813   29.56%   813   29.56%
Hans Sassenfeld   REP   540   19.63%   540   19.63%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      2,750      2,750   
Precincts Reported      1   of   38 Precincts      2.63%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 145               
Elias De La Garza   DEM   54   3.41%   58   3.10%
Oscar Del Toro   DEM   54   3.41%   58   3.10%
Martha Elena Fierro   REP   309   19.51%   374   20.05%
Ruben Dario Gonsalez   DEM   11   0.69%   11   0.58%
Clayton Hunt   LIB   12   0.75%   13   0.69%
Christina Morales   DEM   586   37.01%   719   38.55%
Alfred Moreno   DEM   27   1.70%   27   1.44%
Melissa Noriega   DEM   530   33.48%   605   32.43%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      1,583      1,865   
Precincts Reported      9   of   46 Precincts      19.57%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Runoff:


RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 145               
Elias De La Garza   DEM   54   3.41%   99   2.86%
Oscar Del Toro   DEM   54   3.41%   96   2.77%
Martha Elena Fierro   REP   309   19.51%   872   25.20%
Ruben Dario Gonsalez   DEM   11   0.69%   13   0.37%
Clayton Hunt   LIB   12   0.75%   33   0.95%
Christina Morales   DEM   586   37.01%   1,238   35.78%
Alfred Moreno   DEM   27   1.70%   32   0.92%
Melissa Noriega   DEM   530   33.48%   1,077   31.12%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      1,583      3,460   
Precincts Reported      46   of   46 Precincts      100.00%


----------------------

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 79               
Arthur "Art" Fierro   DEM   1,397   50.80%   2,015   52.09%
Michiel "Mike" Noe   DEM   813   29.56%   1,082   27.97%
Hans Sassenfeld   REP   540   19.63%   771   19.93%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      2,750      3,868   
Precincts Reported      16   of   38 Precincts      42.11%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WINNER:

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 79               
Arthur "Art" Fierro   DEM   1,397   50.80%   2,514   53.34%
Michiel "Mike" Noe   DEM   813   29.56%   1,256   26.64%
Hans Sassenfeld   REP   540   19.63%   943   20.00%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      2,750      4,713   
Precincts Reported      38   of   38 Precincts      100.00%

Next Elections are on February 5

[PApolitics]

Is that a flip?

[ON Progressive]

Is that a flip?

No. Both of the Texas seats up last night are seats that are very safely Democratic.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Republican State Senator Don White of Pennsylvania has announced his resignation today, triggering a special election. He won in 2016 with 68% of the vote.

Do we have presidential numbers?

[PApolitics]

I know this isn't a state legislature related event, but Lou Barletta has decided not to run in the PA-12 Special Election.

[Kevinstat]

Another vacancy in the Maine House of Representatives

Bath’s state rep. announces resignation to take ‘unique career opportunity’ at telecom company

A long-time Bath city councilor died just two days before DeChant's resignation announcement, and his death seems to have become known the same day as DeChant's announcement that she was resigning, so that has "quieted the politics" as one friend told me.  Also, in Maine a vacancy in the State House can't be declared until a municipal governing body in one of the municipalities affected (in this case the Bath City Council) requests that a vacancy be declared, and they may want to time it so the two special elections coincide, but they obviously don't want to make such a declaration on the council vacancy before the deceased's funeral, so it may be a week or two before we know when the special election to replace DeChant will be.

‘A giant in the city’: Bath mourns longtime city councilor, civic icon Bernie Wyman

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

California’s 1st Senate District (March 26th)

Candidates
Steven Baird (D) Manager/Broker/Author
Brian Dahle (R) Farmer/Businessman/Assemblyman
Theodore Dzuiba (R) Businessman
Rex Hime (R) Taxpayer Advocate
Kevin Kiley (R) Assemblyman/Small Businessman
Silke Pflueger (D) Safety Advocate/Businesswoman

Their current and former party affiliations

Six candidates, notably missing Beth Gaines (a former assemblywoman for the district now held by Kiley). Speaking of him, Kevin Kiley represents the 6th assembly district, encompassing the Sacramento suburbs (parts of Sacramento, El Dorado, and Placer Counties). Brian Dahle represents most of the northern part of the district: Siskiyou, Shasta, Modoc. Lassen, Plumas, Sierra, Nevada, and parts of Butte and Placer counties.

There’s also Theodore Dzuiba, a businessman who wants to help remake the Republican Party in CA; he also serves on several local boards. Rex Hime is a taxpayer advocate and President and CEO of the California Business Properties Association, an advocacy group.

On the Democratic side, Silke Pflueger is a left leaning political activist in the style of Bernie Sanders; she is also a businesswoman. The other uhh... Democrat? is... interesting. Steven Baird is a former Republican now running as a Democrat. He had been in favor of the state of Jefferson when he ran in 2016. I’m thinking his candidacy is trying to lampoon the Democrats by advocating policies on his website like ”Late term abortions up to and including the 25th year”. I think his candidacy is mostly an attempt to sell his book.

[Badger]

Another vacancy in the Maine House of Representatives

Bath’s state rep. announces resignation to take ‘unique career opportunity’ at telecom company

A long-time Bath city councilor died just two days before DeChant's resignation announcement, and his death seems to have become known the same day as DeChant's announcement that she was resigning, so that has "quieted the politics" as one friend told me.  Also, in Maine a vacancy in the State House can't be declared until a municipal governing body in one of the municipalities affected (in this case the Bath City Council) requests that a vacancy be declared, and they may want to time it so the two special elections coincide, but they obviously don't want to make such a declaration on the council vacancy before the deceased's funeral, so it may be a week or two before we know when the special election to replace DeChant will be.

‘A giant in the city’: Bath mourns longtime city councilor, civic icon Bernie Wyman

So asking the inevitable Atlas question, what are the prospects of this seat flipping. The State House seat that is.

[MAINEiac4434]

Another vacancy in the Maine House of Representatives

Bath’s state rep. announces resignation to take ‘unique career opportunity’ at telecom company

A long-time Bath city councilor died just two days before DeChant's resignation announcement, and his death seems to have become known the same day as DeChant's announcement that she was resigning, so that has "quieted the politics" as one friend told me.  Also, in Maine a vacancy in the State House can't be declared until a municipal governing body in one of the municipalities affected (in this case the Bath City Council) requests that a vacancy be declared, and they may want to time it so the two special elections coincide, but they obviously don't want to make such a declaration on the council vacancy before the deceased's funeral, so it may be a week or two before we know when the special election to replace DeChant will be.

‘A giant in the city’: Bath mourns longtime city councilor, civic icon Bernie Wyman

So asking the inevitable Atlas question, what are the prospects of this seat flipping. The State House seat that is.

0%. DeChant got over 70% of the vote in 2018.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Special Elections Tonight!

GA HD 5 Runoff (R v R) (7 ET): https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/94211/Web02-state.225387/#/
MN SD 11 (9 ET): https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/Results/StateSenate/119?districtid=499

[MT Treasurer]

Trump won this by 13 points but it’s pretty much solidly Democratic downballot, right? I’ll guess D+9.

[ON Progressive]

Trump won this by 13 points but it’s pretty much solidly Democratic downballot, right? I’ll guess D+9.

It's Trump +11, but Smith/Walz carried it too. Wardlow and Stauber did carry it with 49% pluralities otoh.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1087948417513504768

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1087949099729670150

Other Candidates Maps are enclosed in the tweets. The last time this seat was up: