State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Oryxslayer]

Wow there are a lot of these happening tomorrow.

List?

ME HD 124
MS HD 32
MS HD 71
MS HD 101
PA HD 114
PA HD 190
TN SD 32

Here's a little breakdown:

ME HD 124: A seat that takes Northern Bangor and Orino. Even when Clinton lost Penobscot, she still easily carried these towns. Recent elects of King and Mills confirmed that these places are still loyal to team Dem. Supposedly the Republicans have made a mistake with who they nominated here. However, the Pop per district is miniscule, so while this should be safe Dem, things can easily go awry.

MS: In MS, there are three types of Districts: White Republican, Black Democrat, and White Republican with a Democratic history. HD 32 and 71 are black seats, and HD 101 is a white seat. Everyone is on a nonpartisan ballot, so things might end up interesting, but don't expect districts to differ from their ethnic alligence.

PA HD114: A seat that takes much of northern and central Lakwanna county, but cleverly avoids Scranton herself. This was a Trump-Democrat seat until it became open, with Trump winning it 52-45. The seat however was carried by the statewide 2018 nominees, so there is still plenty of downballot juice for Dems here. Dems also hold more redder seats to the west purely off of their legacy of the past, so the PA dems do have some reason to rejoice. If the Democrats cannot hold this, then it is clear the national mood has shifted.

PA HD190: Black west Philadelphia seat. Not much interesting from the Two-Party perspective. Interestingly, there is a dude, Amen Brown, running under a 3rd party that bares his name for the seat.

TN SD32: The seat has all of Tipton county and then heads into Shelby to grab Memphis's White suburbs. While the Democrats did well in Memphis in 2018, advancing in many seats and capturing one, it was nowhere close to the Republican wipeout seen in Nashville. This reflects the segregated nature of Memphis which is more "Deep Southern" then the central or eastern parts the state. To this end, AA turnout in Memphis tends to plumit during the off season, represented by the fact that Dems only took control of the county local govt in 2018. So whatever hope the Dems have here should be thrown away, this seat is likely safe Republican.

[ON Progressive]

Here are the partisan affiliations of candidates in MS tonight:

HD 32 has Solomon Osbourne (Democrat) and Troy D. Brown (Democrat, although he ran as an indy in 2011 for this seat). I have no idea about the third guy, a bunch of googling implies he didn’t even qualify for the ballot.

All the HD 71 candidates are confirmed Democrats.

All the HD 101 candidates are Republicans (Even Jim Hood only got 26% in this seat, after all).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Omg . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRzWrncdJjc

[MaxQue]

Here are the partisan affiliations of candidates in MS tonight:

HD 32 has Solomon Osbourne (Democrat) and Troy D. Brown (Independent, ran as an Indy in 2011). I have no idea about the third guy, a bunch of googling implies he didn’t even qualify for the ballot.

All the HD 71 candidates are confirmed Democrats.

All the HD 101 candidates are Republicans (Even Jim Hood only got 26% in this seat, after all).

Troy D. Brown was the Democrat candidate against Trent Lott in 2000.

[ON Progressive]

Here are the partisan affiliations of candidates in MS tonight:

HD 32 has Solomon Osbourne (Democrat) and Troy D. Brown (Independent, ran as an Indy in 2011). I have no idea about the third guy, a bunch of googling implies he didn’t even qualify for the ballot.

All the HD 71 candidates are confirmed Democrats.

All the HD 101 candidates are Republicans (Even Jim Hood only got 26% in this seat, after all).

Troy D. Brown was the Democrat candidate against Trent Lott in 2000.

Ballotpedia never mentioned that for some reason on his campaign page, thank you. I'll edit to note that.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Schedule for Tonight:

7 ET

GA HD 176 Runoff (R v R): https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/94969/Web02-state.225387/#/

8 ET

TX HD 125 Runoff: https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/public/mar12_342_state.htm
ME HD 124 : Page not up yet
MS HD 32, 71, 101 : Page not up yet
PA HD 114: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/OfficeResults?ElectionID=70&ElectionType=S&IsActive=1
PA HD 190: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/OfficeResults?ElectionID=69&ElectionType=S&IsActive=1
TN SD 32: https://elections.tn.gov/results.php?ByOffice=Tennessee%20Senate%20District%2032

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls have closed in Georgia. Get results at: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/94969/Web02-state.225387/#/

[ON Progressive]

TX HD-125 turnout:
https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1105606292331266048

Add this to 5228 early votes, total turnout is 8117 with an hour to go.

For context, the first round a month earlier had total turnout of 6127.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Early Vote out of GA:

JAMES BURCHETT - REP63.10%648
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP36.90%379
1,027

[Oryxslayer]

TX HD-125 turnout:
https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1105606292331266048

Add this to 5228 early votes, total turnout is 8117 with an hour to go.

For context, the first round a month earlier had total turnout of 6127.

Well, the seat is safe democrat, so its nice to see high turnout (for a special) in a uncompetative race.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2/17 in:

JAMES BURCHETT - REP56.08%812
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.92%636
1,448

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Interesting and short twitter thread on PA-114

https://twitter.com/xenocryptsite/status/1105521011674497025

Includes this accounting of 2016 votes showing, erm, discrepancies upballot from the downballot results which are solidly D.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

4/17 in:

JAMES BURCHETT - REP46.62%1,028
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP53.38%1,177
2,205

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls have closed in all races.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

6/17 in:

JAMES BURCHETT - REP46.16%1,063
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP53.84%1,240
2,303

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Early Vote out of TN:

Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Paul Rose   Republican   3,042   83.92%
Eric R. Coleman   Democratic   583   16.08%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

14/17 in:

JAMES BURCHETT - REP62.12%2,212
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP37.88%1,349
3,561

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Very Early Numbers from TX:

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 125               
Ray Lopez   DEM   3,303   56.89%   3,303   56.89%
Fred A. Rangel   REP   2,502   43.10%   2,502   43.10%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      5,805      5,805   
Precincts Reported      1   of   60 Precincts      1.67%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Very Early Numbers from TX:

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 125               
Ray Lopez   DEM   3,303   56.89%   3,303   56.89%
Fred A. Rangel   REP   2,502   43.10%   2,502   43.10%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      5,805      5,805   
Precincts Reported      1   of   60 Precincts      1.67%

Holy f#ck, that's horrid.

[Boobs]

Very Early Numbers from TX:

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 125               
Ray Lopez   DEM   3,303   56.89%   3,303   56.89%
Fred A. Rangel   REP   2,502   43.10%   2,502   43.10%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      5,805      5,805   
Precincts Reported      1   of   60 Precincts      1.67%

Holy f#ck, that's horrid.

Uhh, it means Rangel has to win the Election Day vote with 64% in order to tie, lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very Early Numbers from TX:

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 125               
Ray Lopez   DEM   3,303   56.89%   3,303   56.89%
Fred A. Rangel   REP   2,502   43.10%   2,502   43.10%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      5,805      5,805   
Precincts Reported      1   of   60 Precincts      1.67%

Holy f#ck, that's horrid.

You're making judgments based on ONE precinct? #PeakAtlas

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Very Early Numbers from TX:

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 125               
Ray Lopez   DEM   3,303   56.89%   3,303   56.89%
Fred A. Rangel   REP   2,502   43.10%   2,502   43.10%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      5,805      5,805   
Precincts Reported      1   of   60 Precincts      1.67%

Holy f#ck, that's horrid.

You're making judgments based on ONE precinct? #PeakAtlas

Based off of the entire ev, dude.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Rangel only got 36% of the early vote in the jungle, and rest were dems, now it is 43%, tsk tsk dude

https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/public/feb12_340_state.htm

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is still all early vote.

Tennessee Senate District 32
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Paul Rose   Republican   5,834   87.95%
Eric R. Coleman   Democratic   799   12.05%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Very Early Numbers from TX:

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 125               
Ray Lopez   DEM   3,303   56.89%   3,303   56.89%
Fred A. Rangel   REP   2,502   43.10%   2,502   43.10%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      5,805      5,805   
Precincts Reported      1   of   60 Precincts      1.67%

Holy f#ck, that's horrid.

Uhh, it means Rangel has to win the Election Day vote with 64% in order to tie, lol.

well duh, the republican stands no chance, we hold it, but this will prolly be a terrible underperformance