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August 20, 2019, 10:57:17 am
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  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2  (Read 93124 times)
Politician stands with Sanchez
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« Reply #1750 on: March 26, 2019, 07:28:24 pm »

Wow, amazing overperformance of Clinton so far. I think it's safe to say after this, PA-HD-114, and IA-SD-30 Dems have regained their special election edge.
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« Reply #1751 on: March 26, 2019, 07:51:49 pm »

"38/40 precincts reporting (95%) and Republican Dwight Loftis leads Democrat @TinaforSenate6 56-44 in South Carolina's #SD06. Pretty stunning over-performance here compared to Clinton's 31% in 2016."

— Chris Lee (@politico_chris)
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« Reply #1752 on: March 26, 2019, 08:00:31 pm »

Time for Dems to panic!
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1753 on: March 26, 2019, 08:12:14 pm »

Final:

Tina Belge 44.33% 3,537
Dwight A Loftis 55.63% 4,439
Write-In 0.04% 3
7,979

Not a bad start.
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« Reply #1754 on: March 26, 2019, 08:15:05 pm »

Just under two hours until CA polls close.

SD 1: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-senate/district/1
SD 33: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-senate/district/33

For both elections, a candidate needs an absolute majority to win tonight. Otherwise, there will be a runoff in June.
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« Reply #1755 on: March 26, 2019, 08:18:41 pm »

Well, the closest thing we could've had to a competitive race today ended in a Democratic overperformance. The over- or under- performance in CA-SD33, for example, is a lot less relevant unless it's massive.
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« Reply #1756 on: March 26, 2019, 08:39:39 pm »

Despite the horrible performance of the orange county D's with Loretta Sanchez I think the CA SD 1 will be decent for D's because the D's that are there are much of the #resistance rather than minorities moving in.
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« Reply #1757 on: March 26, 2019, 08:46:47 pm »

Well, the closest thing we could've had to a competitive race today ended in a Democratic overperformance. The over- or under- performance in CA-SD33, for example, is a lot less relevant unless it's massive.

No, Clinton lost CA SD-01 by a much closer but still large 54-38

Yeah, just realized that. My mistake.

Hopefully we can get a similar level overperformance in SD-01, then!
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1758 on: March 26, 2019, 09:06:36 pm »

Well, the closest thing we could've had to a competitive race today ended in a Democratic overperformance. The over- or under- performance in CA-SD33, for example, is a lot less relevant unless it's massive.

No, Clinton lost CA SD-01 by a much closer but still large 54-38

Yeah, just realized that. My mistake.

Hopefully we can get a similar level overperformance in SD-01, then!

What will be interesting to see is how Steve Baird does. He’s on the ballot as a Dem, but he was basically running a campaign mocking the Democratic Party before he dropped out a few weeks ago. Baird was a pro-Jefferson Republican when he ran for the seat in 2016.
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« Reply #1759 on: March 26, 2019, 10:02:45 pm »

Polls are closed.
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« Reply #1760 on: March 26, 2019, 10:09:03 pm »


Plus the usual situation that ballots received by Friday that are postmarked today will still be counted.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1761 on: March 26, 2019, 10:15:58 pm »

SD 1 - 6% in:

   Steve Baird
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,901   
5.2%
Silke Pflueger
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,414   
25.8%
Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
7,116   
19.5%
Theodore Dziuba
(Party Preference: REP)
550   
1.5%
Rex Hime
(Party Preference: REP)
3,657   
10.0%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
13,798   
37.9%



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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1762 on: March 26, 2019, 10:18:15 pm »

Most of this first dump is from Kiley’s assembly district. Some is from Plumas too (that’s part of Dahle’s district and he’s doing well there).

Edit: So far, Pflueger is far surpassing Baird, which is nice to see.
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« Reply #1763 on: March 26, 2019, 10:28:21 pm »

SD 1 - 23% in:

Steve Baird
(Party Preference: DEM)
4,259   
5.4%
Silke Pflueger
(Party Preference: DEM)
20,909   
26.6%
Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
17,370   
22.1%
Theodore Dziuba
(Party Preference: REP)
1,478   
1.9%
Rex Hime
(Party Preference: REP)
7,941   
10.1%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
26,794   
34.0%

Dziuba, Baird, and Hime have lost at this point. Any combo of the other three is possible for the runoff.
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« Reply #1764 on: March 26, 2019, 10:29:42 pm »

So far Rs are leading this 68%-32%.
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« Reply #1765 on: March 26, 2019, 10:31:22 pm »

Currently an R overperformance (slightly) but I'm not sure what's in yet.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1766 on: March 26, 2019, 10:35:39 pm »

Breakdown:

Brian Dahle is the incumbent for California's 1st Assembly (Not Senate) District. That district covers the following counties:

Modoc, Lassen, Siskiyou, Shasta, Plumas, Nevada, Sierra, and part of Placer (mainly the town of Colfax and northern Lake Tahoe communities). Portions of Butte County are also in the 1st Assembly District, but are not in the 1st Senate District.

Kevin Kiley is the incumbent for California's 6th Assembly District.

That district contains parts of Placer (the more populous areas, such as Lincoln, Granite Bay, and Rocklin), the far western parts of El Dorado County (El Dorado Hills and Cameron Park), and parts of Sacramento County (Fair Oaks, Orangevale, and Folsom). Roseville, part of Placer County, is also in Kiley's assembly district, but is not part of the 1st Senate District.

Both Kiley and Dahle are Republicans and are the two leading Republicans.
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« Reply #1767 on: March 26, 2019, 10:45:23 pm »

SD 1 - 39% in:

Steve Baird
(Party Preference: DEM)
6,603   
5.6%
Silke Pflueger
(Party Preference: DEM)
32,171   
27.1%
Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
34,877   
29.4%
Theodore Dziuba
(Party Preference: REP)
2,295   
1.9%
Rex Hime
(Party Preference: REP)
10,714   
9.0%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
31,868   
26.9%

Well this was a shift lol
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1768 on: March 26, 2019, 10:46:16 pm »

El Dorado is showing strong for Kiley (35%) and Pflueger (28%). Dahle is at 19% here. Not sure how many are reporting from here.

Placer claims about 50% reporting. 41-26-16 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Plumas claims 100% reporting. 14-25-45 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Sierra is also 100% reporting. 14-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Siskiyou doesn't say their reporting status. 11-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.



As I guessed earlier, Dahle is doing well in his district and Kiley seems to be doing well in his.

198k ballots cast in Dahle's district compared to 226k for Kiley's district. Kiley only beat Dahle by about 6,000 votes if you look at just their numbers. This could be close, given that Roseville is not in this senate district.

A note on % reporting: Many people in California vote by mail. CA state law allows ballots postmarked by today that arrive by Friday to be counted. Also, Sacramento County is nearly entirely mail-in. I believe that Alpine and Sierra are also mostly, if not all, mail-ins.

Edit: While typing that, more votes came out. I'd disregard most of the post before "As I guessed..."
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1769 on: March 26, 2019, 10:46:21 pm »

SD 33 - 3% in:

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
974   
4.8%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
608   
3.0%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,271   
6.3%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
502   
2.5%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
6,120   
30.4%
Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,513   
7.5%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,572   
7.8%
José Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,319   
6.5%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,127   
5.6%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,556   
7.7%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
3,286   
16.3%
Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
307   
1.5%
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« Reply #1770 on: March 26, 2019, 10:49:43 pm »

The Sacramento County numbers that aren't on the SOS site:
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1771 on: March 26, 2019, 10:58:26 pm »

Alpine has less than 100 votes in (doubt they'll break 300 or so). Pflueger leads there, as is expected for Alpine. Overall, it's 8-44-27% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

El Dorado is still 35-28-19 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. No update on reporting either.

Lassen: no votes yet.

Modoc: 9-10-70 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Not shocking.

Nevada: 10-40-35 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Pflueger is from Truckee, located in Nevada County.

Placer: 41-26-16 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Kiley's home county. It's larger than a fair number of the counties in Dahle's district. I'm not fast enough to copy/format the SoS numbers into a post, so they're just percentages.

Plumas claims 100% reporting. 14-25-45 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. No change?

Sacramento claims nearly 100% reporting, but earlier caveats about Sac County are still in play. The portions of Sac County in this senate district are the more conservative (though somewhat trending Dem) parts of the county. 45-26-10 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Shasta: 16-14-53 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle

Sierra: 14-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. I don't think this one changed.

Siskiyou doesn't say their reporting status. 11-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1772 on: March 26, 2019, 11:02:02 pm »

Even in what is probably one of the more liberal parts of the district, I don't think that I saw any signs for Pflueger. Take that for what its worth, but I did see a fair number of Kiley and Hime signs (most Sacramento and Placer Counties). I don't think I got any mailers from Pflueger either.
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« Reply #1773 on: March 26, 2019, 11:05:56 pm »

It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.
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« Reply #1774 on: March 26, 2019, 11:07:39 pm »

It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.

What makes Kiley preferable?
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