State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Member of the State Assembly, 39th District (Unexpired Term Ending December 3, 2018)
D
Luz Maria Rivas   40.96%   
3,602
R
Ricardo Antonio Benitez   25.26%   
2,221
D
Antonio Sanchez   16.66%   
1,465
D
Patty Lopez   9.17%   
806
D
Yolie Anguiano   5.47%   
481
D
Patrea Patrick   2.49%   
219
26 of 169 precincts reporting (15.38%)Voter Nominated

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: CA-45 will be D v. R Runoff

Member of the State Assembly, 45th District (Unexpired Term Ending December 3, 2018)
D
Jesse Gabriel   31.22%   
5,168
R
Justin M. Clark   30.06%   
4,976
D
Tricia Robbins Kasson   15.40%   
2,550
N
Dennis P. Zine   9.36%   
1,549
D
Ankur Patel   7.11%   
1,177
D
Raymond J. Bishop   2.70%   
447
D
Jeff Bornstein   2.36%   
391
D
Daniel Brin   1.80%   
298
11 of 204 precincts reporting (5.39%)Voter Nominated

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Member of the State Assembly, 39th District (Unexpired Term Ending December 3, 2018)
D
Luz Maria Rivas   41.07%   
3,790
R
Ricardo Antonio Benitez   25.08%   
2,314
D
Antonio Sanchez   16.97%   
1,566
D
Patty Lopez   8.99%   
830
D
Yolie Anguiano   5.43%   
501
D
Patrea Patrick   2.46%   
227
37 of 169 precincts reporting (21.89%)Voter Nominated

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: CA-39 will be D v. R RUNOFF:

Member of the State Assembly, 39th District (Unexpired Term Ending December 3, 2018)
D
Luz Maria Rivas   41.42%   5,454
R
Ricardo Antonio Benitez   22.69%   2,988
D
Antonio Sanchez   18.41%   2,425
D
Patty Lopez   9.99%   1,316
D
Yolie Anguiano   4.93%   649
D
Patrea Patrick   2.56%   337
137 of 169 precincts reporting (81.07%)Voter Nominated

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

That's all for tonight. Two more special elections on the 10th - Iowa Senate 25 and Florida Senate 31.

[Gustaf]

Ethan Berkowitz over 57% of the vote in Anchorage,  so we can safely say he’ll win even with the rest of the post-marked ballots. Seems like a pretty strong result for a Democratic mayor in a light red city. 2020 senate run?

As long as he does better than in his 2010 gubernatorial run...

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Republicans are DOA in the next California runoffs.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republicans are DOA in the next California runoffs.

Yes, but honestly even making it into the runoffs is an accomplishment for the party in its current state.

[Holmes]

Republicans are DOA in the next California runoffs.

Yes, but honestly even making it into the runoffs is an accomplishment for the party in its current state.

I guess, but each race had one Republican and 5+ Democrats. /shrug

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are there any interesting special elections tonight?

[Oryxslayer]

Are there any interesting special elections tonight?

There is a safe dem seat in florida, and a potentially competitive one in Iowa.

[LimoLiberal]

Are there any interesting special elections tonight?

There is a safe dem seat in florida, and a potentially competitive one in Iowa.

Florida will be interesting to watch for margins. It was a part of the state where Rick Scott did worse than Trump (margins-wise) in 2014.

The dem candidate is a state rep and the R candidate is just the head of the local party committee, so I expect it to be a landslide.

[Brittain33]

Are there any interesting special elections tonight?

There is a safe dem seat in florida, and a potentially competitive one in Iowa.

Florida will be interesting to watch for margins. It was a part of the state where Rick Scott did worse than Trump (margins-wise) in 2014.

The dem candidate is a state rep and the R candidate is just the head of the local party committee, so I expect it to be a landslide.

I just saw on Twitter that the only reason Rs ran a candidate was to prevent Berman from being sworn in early as "uncontested" and participating in government.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results for tonight:

Florida Senate 31 (7 ET): http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/ElectionResults/default?Election=04/10/2018

Iowa Senate 25 (10 ET)

Hardin County: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTw24eE8uc3hEvsn3lBUeEPrNFsm0FANpr-1vx9D2T4AHcqO1TAghh3u0sICqpQU0rnrqoPJrfOaKGN/pubhtml

Story County: http://www.storycountyiowa.gov/index.aspx?NID=1287

Butler County: https://www.butlercoiowa.org/departments/elections/results

Grundy County: Not finding a page for this county. Any help is appreciated.

Add up the results from all counties to get the full result.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Results for tonight:

Florida Senate 31 (7 ET): http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/ElectionResults/default?Election=04/10/2018

Iowa Senate 25 (10 ET)

Hardin County: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTw24eE8uc3hEvsn3lBUeEPrNFsm0FANpr-1vx9D2T4AHcqO1TAghh3u0sICqpQU0rnrqoPJrfOaKGN/pubhtml

Story County: http://www.storycountyiowa.gov/index.aspx?NID=1287

Butler County: https://www.butlercoiowa.org/departments/elections/results

Grundy County: Not finding a page for this county. Any help is appreciated.

Add up the results from all counties to get the full result.

Grundy County: https://www.grundycounty.org/departments/auditor/election-results

[LimoLiberal]

Tami L. Donnally   
REP   4,570   
25.5%
Lori Berman   
DEM   13,354   
74.5%

Early and absentee reported. No election day vote.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Tami L. Donnally   
REP   4,570   
25.5%
Lori Berman   
DEM   13,354   
74.5%

Early and absentee reported. No election day vote.

Florida or Iowa?

[LimoLiberal]

Tami L. Donnally   
REP   4,570   
25.5%
Lori Berman   
DEM   13,354   
74.5%

Early and absentee reported. No election day vote.

Florida or Iowa?

Florida. 61-36 Clinton seat, so the democrat is putting up a 24 point margin swing so far.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

43% in:


Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Tami L. Donnally   
REP   5,764   
25.69%
Lori Berman   
DEM   16,670   
74.31%
Total    22,434

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The district went 25% for Clinton. This is a 23% swing to the Democrats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The district went 25% for Clinton. This is a 23% swing to the Democrats.

But Atlas told me FL-Sen was tossup

This is indeed a bad sign for Rick Scott.

[Strudelcutie4427]

The district went 25% for Clinton. This is a 23% swing to the Democrats.

But Atlas told me FL-Sen was tossup

This is indeed a bad sign for Rick Scott.

9% turn out in a safe dem seat. Doesn’t mean anything

[Virginiá]

9% turn out in a safe dem seat. Doesn’t mean anything

As has been stated hundreds of times before, averaging them together as a group is actually decently predictive of future general election results. The more special elections, the more accurate.

That being said, this swing isn't abnormal by any means. It is in line with other special election results. And it's not historically normal either. When Obama was president, Democrats consistently under-performed in special elections and got blown out in each midterm.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tami L. Donnally   
REP   7,614   
25.18%
Lori Berman   
DEM   22,621   
74.82%

99% in

25-point shift to the Democrats

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Iowa closes at 10:00 Est if this follows the same rules as usual for the state.