State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Brittain33]

Are we sure it's accurate that the independent got 10% of the vote in AD-102? I'm reading on DKE that he's only getting a significant % (27%) in one county. It seems odd.

Makes sense to me in an election like this—he only turns out his neighbors.

[JerryArkansas]

Are we sure it's accurate that the independent got 10% of the vote in AD-102? I'm reading on DKE that he's only getting a significant % (27%) in one county. It seems odd.

Makes sense to me in an election like this—he only turns out his neighbors.

But getting 1800 votes from just one country?  I'm not so sure on that.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Only outstanding race is very close.

102nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 80,852)   Election Districts Reporting: 124 of 126
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Aidan S. O'Connor, Jr.   DEM   .   38.17 %   7,028   .   44.34 %   8,164
WOR   .   4.38 %   807           
WEP   .   1.79 %   329           
Christopher Tague   REP   .   34.47 %   6,347   .   45.84 %   8,439
CON   .   8.41 %   1,548           
IND   .   2.47 %   455           
REF      0.48 %   89           
Wesley D. Laraway   THE   .   9.72 %   1,789   .   9.72 %   1,789
Blank         0.02 %   4      0.02 %   4
Void         0.04 %   7      0.04 %   7
Write-in         0.04 %   8      0.04 %   8
Total Votes   18,411

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

102nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 80,852)   Election Districts Reporting: 126 of 126
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Aidan S. O'Connor, Jr.   DEM   .   38.16 %   7,110   .   44.32 %   8,259
WOR   .   4.37 %   814           
WEP   .   1.80 %   335           
Christopher Tague   REP   .   34.54 %   6,437   .   45.87 %   8,547
CON   .   8.39 %   1,563           
IND   .   2.45 %   457           
REF      0.48 %   90           
Wesley D. Laraway   THE   .   9.71 %   1,809   .   9.71 %   1,809
Blank         0.02 %   4      0.02 %   4
Void         0.04 %   7      0.04 %   7
Write-in         0.04 %   8      0.04 %   8
Total Votes   18,634

Final composition is 6-5 Dem, no overall change.

[Oryxslayer]

All done:

AD102 : Tague (R) 45.9%, 8,547 to O'Conner (D) 44.3% 8,295 to Laraway (I) 9.7% 1,809

AD107 : Ashby (R) 51.1% 7,558 to Doran (D) 48.7% 7,205

D+1 on the night thanks to oddities in Erie.

[LimoLiberal]

Goddamnit we could have had 3 pickups... we were less than 500 votes away.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Looks like a lot of New Yorkers were motivated to not vote.  I guess the attitude was it really did not matter.

[junior chįmp]

Looks like a lot of New Yorkers were motivated to not vote.  I guess the attitude was it really did not matter.

NY also has some of the most restrictive voting laws in America. Worse than any red state I can think of

[MaxQue]

Looks like a lot of New Yorkers were motivated to not vote.  I guess the attitude was it really did not matter.

NY also has some of the most restrictive voting laws in America. Worse than any red state I can think of

Which is why real progressives need to make everything so the fossils establishment and Cuomo are all primaried out.

[socaldem]

In a lot of the legislative races, it looks like Republicans won on the strength of the "Independence Party" ballot line.

The "Independence" vote made the difference in like 3 of the races...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Schedule for May

May 1

Florida
See also: Florida state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Florida House of Representatives District 39   
[show]☐ Florida House of Representatives District 114   
Massachusetts
See also: Massachusetts state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Massachusetts State Senate First Suffolk District   
South Carolina
See also: South Carolina state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ South Carolina House of Representatives District 69

May 5

Texas
See also: Texas state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Texas House of Representatives District 13

May 15

Alabama
See also: Alabama state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Alabama House of Representatives District 4   
[show]☐ Alabama State Senate District 26   
Pennsylvania
See also: Pennsylvania state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 48   
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 68   
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 178   

May 22

Arkansas
See also: Arkansas state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 16   
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 29   
[show]☐ Arkansas House of Representatives District 83   

[Ebsy]

Looks like a lot of New Yorkers were motivated to not vote.  I guess the attitude was it really did not matter.

NY also has some of the most restrictive voting laws in America. Worse than any red state I can think of

This is, of course, due to Republican control of the state senate.

[Sestak]

Looks like a lot of New Yorkers were motivated to not vote.  I guess the attitude was it really did not matter.

NY also has some of the most restrictive voting laws in America. Worse than any red state I can think of

This is, of course, due to Republican control of the state senate.

Actually, Cuomo and the NY Dems also hold a good share of the blame here.

[smoltchanov]

So, both parties have reasons to be satisfied to some (but - not full) extent. Democrats held an important state Senate seat, and flipped relatively "low-hanging fruit" in AD10, but got a stern reminder in AD142: even in the North-East a "progressive" isn't always the best candidate (AFAIK - Buffalo area is full of "old school" Democrats: pro-labor, pro-gun and pro-life, for example). Republicans formally flipped AD142, and narrowly escaped defeats in 2 other districts, a sort of achievement in present environment..

[rob in cal]

  With the latest anemic GOP performance in a congressional special election tonite, New York actually offers up some ok news for them.  If I was Trump I'd twitter about this, not Arizona.

[kph14]

So, both parties have reasons to be satisfied to some (but - not full) extent. Democrats held an important state Senate seat, and flipped relatively "low-hanging fruit" in AD10, but got a stern reminder in AD142: even in the North-East a "progressive" isn't always the best candidate (AFAIK - Buffalo area is full of "old school" Democrats: pro-labor, pro-gun and pro-life, for example). Republicans formally flipped AD142, and narrowly escaped defeats in 2 other districts, a sort of achievement in present environment..

Well the new Assemblyman from district 142 is a union-backed registered Democrat who plans to caucus with the Democrats. I wouldn’t really call that a flipped seat

[smoltchanov]

So, both parties have reasons to be satisfied to some (but - not full) extent. Democrats held an important state Senate seat, and flipped relatively "low-hanging fruit" in AD10, but got a stern reminder in AD142: even in the North-East a "progressive" isn't always the best candidate (AFAIK - Buffalo area is full of "old school" Democrats: pro-labor, pro-gun and pro-life, for example). Republicans formally flipped AD142, and narrowly escaped defeats in 2 other districts, a sort of achievement in present environment..

Well the new Assemblyman from district 142 is a union-backed registered Democrat who plans to caucus with the Democrats. I wouldn’t really call that a flipped seat

Thanks. I know that (that's why i used "formally"). But -  simply wanted to stress, that in different districts you need different types of candidates for victory. The obvious thing, that's too frequently forgotten...

[Tekken_Guy]

Wow, the Dems' performances in NY-05 and NY-17 were absolutely pathetic. There weren't even big swings, let alone wins. Wasn't this supposed to be big suburban territory?

And I don't get the hype for the two Senate seats. Both seats were vacated by Democrats. The wins don't mean anything IMO.

[Virginiá]

I don't know what it is about New York and New Jersey, but they don't seem to see large seat turnovers in waves. New Jersey seems even more frozen in place. Republicans couldn't flip a single seat in 2013 despite winning the state Senate popular vote comfortably, and Democrats only won 1 more Senate seat despite crushing Republicans by like almost 20 points. Likewise New York Democrats only made marginal improvements in the state Senate in 2006 and 2008.

[KingSweden]

I don't know what it is about New York and New Jersey, but they don't seem to see large seat turnovers in waves. New Jersey seems even more frozen in place. Republicans couldn't flip a single seat in 2013 despite winning the state Senate popular vote comfortably, and Democrats only won 1 more Senate seat despite crushing Republicans by like almost 20 points. Likewise New York Democrats only made marginal improvements in the state Senate in 2006 and 2008.

Probably a function of them being less idieological transactional machines states

[junior chįmp]

BIG....Dems now have a real shot at taking the NY Senate (thanks to scammer Simcha)

https://www.twitter.com/CapitalTonight/status/989282706600222721

[Mr.Phips]

BIG....Dems now have a real shot at taking the NY Senate (thanks to scammer Simcha)

https://www.twitter.com/CapitalTonight/status/989282706600222721

Unfortunately this district is very Republican downballot.  This is Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno's old district.  This district includes all of AD-107, which Dems lost narrowly last night.

[Virginiá]

BIG....Dems now have a real shot at taking the NY Senate (thanks to scammer Simcha)

https://www.twitter.com/CapitalTonight/status/989282706600222721

Unfortunately this district is very Republican downballot.  This is Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno's old district.  This district includes all of AD-107, which Dems lost narrowly last night.

SD-43 doesn't seem too bad. It's 48.53 - 45.59% Trump, from 52.88 - 45.21% Obama. All things considered, it's not a lock, but it at least seems doable.

^ That was what I was going to post, but then I double-checked the spreadsheet, and it seems like if presidential numbers held a lot of sway here like they do in some other states, the state Senate would have long ago flipped. Republicans hold tons of Obama 2012 districts. Some of these aren't even remotely close either, like SD-56 (Robach), which went for Clinton and Obama by large double digits. How is it Republicans hold on so well to these seats? If these were the presidential numbers of seats in Virginia, Republicans would be little more than a rump party, a la OK Democrats.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1513373530

[LimoLiberal]

BIG....Dems now have a real shot at taking the NY Senate (thanks to scammer Simcha)

https://www.twitter.com/CapitalTonight/status/989282706600222721

Unfortunately this district is very Republican downballot.  This is Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno's old district.  This district includes all of AD-107, which Dems lost narrowly last night.

SD-43 doesn't seem too bad. It's 48.53 - 45.59% Trump, from 52.88 - 45.21% Obama. All things considered, it's not a lock, but it at least seems doable.

^ That was what I was going to post, but then I double-checked the spreadsheet, and it seems like if presidential numbers held a lot of sway here like they do in some other states, the state Senate would have long ago flipped. Republicans hold tons of Obama 2012 districts. Some of these aren't even remotely close either, like SD-56 (Robach), which went for Clinton and Obama by large double digits. How is it Republicans hold on so well to these seats? If these were the presidential numbers of seats in Virginia, Republicans would be little more than a rump party, a la OK Democrats.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1513373530

Wow, you're right. This helps contextualize the special election results as well. Makes Mayer's 57-43 win in a 59-38 Clinton district seem very impressive, as well as the democratic over-performances around Albany.

[Tartarus Sauce]

BIG....Dems now have a real shot at taking the NY Senate (thanks to scammer Simcha)

https://www.twitter.com/CapitalTonight/status/989282706600222721

Unfortunately this district is very Republican downballot.  This is Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno's old district.  This district includes all of AD-107, which Dems lost narrowly last night.

SD-43 doesn't seem too bad. It's 48.53 - 45.59% Trump, from 52.88 - 45.21% Obama. All things considered, it's not a lock, but it at least seems doable.

^ That was what I was going to post, but then I double-checked the spreadsheet, and it seems like if presidential numbers held a lot of sway here like they do in some other states, the state Senate would have long ago flipped. Republicans hold tons of Obama 2012 districts. Some of these aren't even remotely close either, like SD-56 (Robach), which went for Clinton and Obama by large double digits. How is it Republicans hold on so well to these seats? If these were the presidential numbers of seats in Virginia, Republicans would be little more than a rump party, a la OK Democrats.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1513373530

More specifically, why do Republicans in the state Senate overperform so much compared to the Assembly? Assembly Republicans have been powerless since the 70s. Meanwhile, Democrats don't even hold a single Senate seat in Monroe County.