State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2  (Read 167329 times)
💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #425 on: May 01, 2018, 08:39:23 PM »

Any Floridians wanna explain what's going on around West Miami? Swingy in 2016 and a return to form in 2018. Why did it trend opposite of the rest of the state (and most of the rest of the country, lol) from 16 to 18? Was there just something really odd about one of the candidates in 2016?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #426 on: May 01, 2018, 08:42:14 PM »

West Miami is extremely cuban, moreso than almost any other neighborhood in Miami. Marco Rubio is from there.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #427 on: May 01, 2018, 08:43:08 PM »

Any Floridians wanna explain what's going on around West Miami? Swingy in 2016 and a return to form in 2018. Why did it trend opposite of the rest of the state (and most of the rest of the country, lol) from 16 to 18? Was there just something really odd about one of the candidates in 2016?

Something, something, Cuban voters.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #428 on: May 01, 2018, 08:46:29 PM »

HD-114 shifted 10 points to the right in margin from the 2016 presidential election. FL-26, if it followed the same shift, would elect a Democrat by 6 points in November. But Curbelo is a very strong incumbent. Si fuera Curbelo, respiraría un poco más tranquilo esta noche.

But this result shows the energy that Democrats still have. It is a Republican area downballot and Vargas seemed to have many advantages, including stronger ground organization and fundraising along with the district's Republican tradition. Many observers recognized this and called the race a tossup, leading me to my rating.

I find it interesting that there was basically no shift from 2016 in HD-39, even as this area was closer in 2012. Someone brought up a great point that an Alabama candidate spent 2K while his Republican candidate spend 25 times as much and still overperformed Hillary by double digits. Ricky Shirah (D) was similarly outspent. But he didn't overperform Hillary at all. This comes as Trump hits yearly highs in approval as categorized in the RCP and 538 aggregators. We can never know if Trump's recently expanding popularity has had an effect on these elections, considering each's obscurity. But perhaps that's something to look out for in the future, with Democrats barely (or not all) putting up swings in recent NY and FL state legislative specials.

Whatever the case, it's clear that Democrats still have energy. I won't be so quick to assume that a Republican will win an election (even with seemingly stronger organization and enthusiasm) in districts that shifted left from 2012 to 2016.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #429 on: May 01, 2018, 08:51:08 PM »

HD-114 shifted 10 points to the right in margin from the 2016 presidential election. FL-26, if it followed the same shift, would elect a Democrat by 6 points in November. But Curbelo is a very strong incumbent. Si fuera Curbelo, respiraría un poco más tranquilo esta noche.

But this result shows the energy that Democrats still have. It is a Republican area downballot and Vargas seemed to have many advantages, including stronger ground organization and fundraising along with the district's Republican tradition. Many observers recognized this and called the race a tossup, leading me to my rating.

I find it interesting that there was basically no shift from 2016 in HD-39, even as this area was closer in 2012. Someone brought up a great point that an Alabama candidate spent 2K while his Republican candidate spend 25 times as much and still overperformed Hillary by double digits. Ricky Shirah (D) was similarly outspent. But he didn't overperform Hillary at all. This comes as Trump hits yearly highs in approval as categorized in the RCP and 538 aggregators. We can never know if Trump's recently expanding popularity has had an effect on these elections, considering each's obscurity. But perhaps that's something to look out for in the future, with Democrats barely (or not all) putting up swings in recent NY and FL state legislative specials.

Whatever the case, it's clear that Democrats still have energy. I won't be so quick to assume that a Republican will win an election (even with seemingly stronger organization and enthusiasm) in districts that shifted left from 2012 to 2016.

Limo, you promised...
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
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« Reply #430 on: May 01, 2018, 09:23:19 PM »

West Miami is extremely cuban, moreso than almost any other neighborhood in Miami. Marco Rubio is from there.

So I am guessing Baez is a Cuban candidate and syphoned off enough votes from West Miami in 2016 to pass the finish line?
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #431 on: May 01, 2018, 09:42:17 PM »

West Miami is extremely cuban, moreso than almost any other neighborhood in Miami. Marco Rubio is from there.

So I am guessing Baez is a Cuban candidate and syphoned off enough votes from West Miami in 2016 to pass the finish line?

Even if all the Baez votes went to the GOP (which they wouldn't necessarily, she sent out mailers calling herself a "true progressive"), the Dem would have still won.

It's just that Cuban voters are very GOP downballot still, which would be shown even more because it's more likely to be older Cubans than younger Cubans (lower turnout = older electorate usually). Older Cubans are loyal GOPers, younger Cubans are more Dem leaning.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #432 on: May 01, 2018, 09:54:15 PM »

HD-114 shifted 10 points to the right in margin from the 2016 presidential election. FL-26, if it followed the same shift, would elect a Democrat by 6 points in November. But Curbelo is a very strong incumbent. Si fuera Curbelo, respiraría un poco más tranquilo esta noche.

But this result shows the energy that Democrats still have. It is a Republican area downballot and Vargas seemed to have many advantages, including stronger ground organization and fundraising along with the district's Republican tradition. Many observers recognized this and called the race a tossup, leading me to my rating.

I find it interesting that there was basically no shift from 2016 in HD-39, even as this area was closer in 2012. Someone brought up a great point that an Alabama candidate spent 2K while his Republican candidate spend 25 times as much and still overperformed Hillary by double digits. Ricky Shirah (D) was similarly outspent. But he didn't overperform Hillary at all. This comes as Trump hits yearly highs in approval as categorized in the RCP and 538 aggregators. We can never know if Trump's recently expanding popularity has had an effect on these elections, considering each's obscurity. But perhaps that's something to look out for in the future, with Democrats barely (or not all) putting up swings in recent NY and FL state legislative specials.

Whatever the case, it's clear that Democrats still have energy. I won't be so quick to assume that a Republican will win an election (even with seemingly stronger organization and enthusiasm) in districts that shifted left from 2012 to 2016.

Limo, you promised...

While this post offers a good recap of the race, LimoLiberal was only authorized to come back on here  to make a concession speech regarding his calling of the race for the republican. This makes no mention of his call and therefore is not such a speech, and the moderators should remove the post.
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Atlas Force
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« Reply #433 on: May 01, 2018, 10:22:19 PM »

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #434 on: May 02, 2018, 02:58:04 AM »

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #435 on: May 02, 2018, 03:01:48 AM »

Remarks from @ScottPresler:

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #436 on: May 02, 2018, 03:07:02 AM »
« Edited: May 02, 2018, 04:12:45 AM by PittsburghSteel »

Remarks from @ScottPresler:

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Lol, so NOW that moron cares about margins? He called the AZ-08 a “massive blow” to the Democrats and brushed off PA-18 simply because Lamb won by only 700 votes. The idiocy of that guy is infuriating.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #437 on: May 02, 2018, 08:54:02 AM »



Hey a Woke Joe Walsh sighting!
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Virginiá
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« Reply #438 on: May 02, 2018, 12:08:14 PM »

Probably one of the better trolls on the internet if he gets even a fraction of the collective outrage he generates among Atlas users, lol.

I still think this guy is LimoLOLbral

I don't know if I would call it trolling (although if it was, it would be top-notch). If you look at some of the videos/gifs of himself he posts on his feed, he is 100% involved in politics, to the point where he is spending a lot of time sending actual thank you letters to Trump voters, and standing on intersection sidewalks with skinny jeans holding MAGA signs.

I think he 100% believes what he says. That level of delusional is more common than we'd like to admit, and applicable to more than just politics.
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #439 on: May 02, 2018, 03:57:44 PM »

IDC is done

Fourth Republican announces Senate retirement

Long Island Sen. Tom Croci made his rumored departure official and told his Republican colleagues that he won’t be pursuing re-election in November.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #440 on: May 02, 2018, 05:52:18 PM »

Kane (The wrestler) won the republican primary for Knox county, TN!!
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #441 on: May 02, 2018, 06:03:17 PM »

Kane (The wrestler) won the republican primary for Knox county, TN!!

lol
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #442 on: May 02, 2018, 06:52:19 PM »

Kane (The wrestler) won the republican primary for Knox county, TN!!

lol

Yes, the Democratic Party is the party of celebrities.
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #443 on: May 02, 2018, 07:28:08 PM »

Another one!

Sen. Bill Larkin plans to hold a press conference on Thursday to announce what is expected to be his decision to forego re-election, a retirement that would cap a 40-year career in Albany and make him the fifth Republican senator in the last two weeks to announce their departure.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #444 on: May 02, 2018, 07:33:49 PM »

Remarks from @ScottPresler:

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Lol, so NOW that moron cares about margins? He called the AZ-08 a “massive blow” to the Democrats and brushed off PA-18 simply because Lamb won by only 700 votes. The idiocy of that guy is infuriating.

Probably one of the better trolls on the internet if he gets even a fraction of the collective outrage he generates among Atlas users, lol.

I still think this guy is LimoLOLbral
Probably a parody of rabid Trump supporters and pessimistic pundits.
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Rhenna
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« Reply #445 on: May 02, 2018, 08:59:44 PM »

Remarks from @ScottPresler:

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If they think Michelle Wolf will cost Democrats seats, Democrats will gain 100+ seats in the house.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #446 on: May 02, 2018, 10:21:08 PM »

Remarks from @ScottPresler:

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If they think Michelle Wolf will cost Democrats seats, Democrats will gain 100+ seats in the house.

I’d already forgotten a Michelle Wolf was a thing
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Badger
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« Reply #447 on: May 03, 2018, 01:11:25 AM »

^called it. He could hardly contain himself for an hour!

Oh Richard, can't you save this for rrh? Roll Eyes
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #448 on: May 03, 2018, 09:27:43 AM »

Democratic Massachusetts House Rep for the 6th Middlesex District Chris Walsh passed away yesterday.

http://www.wbur.org/news/2018/05/03/chris-walsh-mass-house-died
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #449 on: May 03, 2018, 05:15:30 PM »

IDC=ded

Fifth NY GOP state senator in a week announces retirement plans
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