State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Brittain33]

Jacque just won another precinct with 24 votes to 16 for Frostman. If there were 120 precincts like that outstanding...

[they don't love you like i love you]

Andrew is conspicuously quiet

He's on mod review right now. He actually PM'd me a post he wanted made (I think)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Frostman up 52-48% with only 8 precincts left to count. This race is over.

Cue the Walker-Twitter meltdown.

[Matty]

Can someone explain to me why in 2010 there were so few special elections on the state level? Same holds for 2006, 2014, etc.

Why is this year so unusually packed with state level special elections?

[Gass3268]

The Republican is romping in AD-42.

Oh yeah, this one is over. Democrat did awful in Columbia County.

[Virginiá]

SD-1 is to the right of CD-8, right?

I'm not sure of the exact PVI, but I think so. SD-01 went for Trump by a lot more than CD-01. Both were close in 2012, by similar numbers I think.

edit:

Congressional results:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections

Wisconsin Senate:
https://docs.google.com/a/d2j.us/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1077872047

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone explain to me why in 2010 there were so few special elections on the state level? Same holds for 2006, 2014, etc.

Why is this year so unusually packed with state level special elections?

Its #Metoo and movements like it. A bunch of retirees these past two years have been because of scandals (Particularly in states with long serving legislators like OK) and flips have historically happened much more easily when the voters are disgusted with the previous incumbent.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Brown

Jacques- 3,684
Frostman- 2,955

Jacques needed more than a thousand votes there, but he didn’t get it. Frostman still up 1,026 votes

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nothing from Walker or S. Pressler yet.

[ON Progressive]

Brown

Jacques- 3,684
Frostman- 2,955

Jacques needed more than a thousand votes there, but he didn’t get it. Frostman still up 1,026 votes

Where did you get that Brown result? Can't find it on the county website. Still has it 2783-2067 Jacques

[Thunder98]

Nothing from Walker or S. Pressler yet.

We will hear him soon. Maybe Trump will give a rant about that as well.

[Brittain33]

Total incl. Jacque's Brown dump:


Candidate
Votes
Percent
Caleb Frostman
14,432
52%
Andre Jacque
13,406
48%
Precincts Reporting: 90 of 93
Percent Reporting: 97%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I’m getting the Brown numbers from locals

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1006721048199548929?s=21

Apparently local media have called it for Frostman.

[john cage bubblegum]

Per that Fox11 News link, Frostman up by 1026 votes with 90 of 93 precincts reporting.  This thing's over.

[Ebsy]

Brown

Jacques- 3,684
Frostman- 2,955

Jacques needed more than a thousand votes there, but he didn’t get it. Frostman still up 1,026 votes

Where did you get that Brown result? Can't find it on the county website. Still has it 2783-2067 Jacques

https://www.co.brown.wi.us/i_brown/d/county_clerk/2018/el-111_180612204906.pdf?t=1528855852

[Gass3268]

Total incl. Jacque's Brown dump:


Candidate
Votes
Percent
Caleb Frostman
14,432
52%
Andre Jacque
13,406
48%
Precincts Reporting: 90 of 93
Percent Reporting: 97%

Last three precincts are from Manitowoc County.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Thank you for tracking down those last 5 brown precincts.


Manitowoc:

9 Of 12 Units Have Reported

Office   Candidate Name   Votes
STATE SENATOR 1ST DIST.   REP-ANDRE M JACQUE    1864
STATE SENATOR 1ST DIST.   DEM-CALEB FROSTMAN    1506
STATE SENATOR 1ST DIST.   SCATTERING    0


So with 3 precincts left, Totals are:

Frostman (D) 14432 52%
Jacque (R) 13406 48%

[Brittain33]

Tomorrow - Wisconsin SD-01 and AD-42

My predictions:
Democrats lose SD-01 47-53
Democrats lose AD-42 44-56

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Oh and in less inspiring news, Republicans held the other seat:

42nd Assembly District Filling Vacant Seat
98% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
    Jon Plumer (R)   5,648   53%
    Ann Groves Lloyd (D)   4,816   45%
    Gene Rubinstein (I)   278   3%

Matches my prediction exactly

[libertpaulian]

Tomorrow - Wisconsin SD-01 and AD-42

My predictions:
Democrats lose SD-01 47-53
Democrats lose AD-42 44-56

Well, he went 1 for 1...not bad

[Gass3268]

98% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
Jon Plumer (R)   5,648 53%
Ann Groves Lloyd (D)   4,816 45%
Gene Rubinstein (I) 278 3%

It's a loss, but also a 6 point swing to the Democrats. Ann Groves Lloyd performed like crap in Columbia County.

[Virginiá]

Tomorrow - Wisconsin SD-01 and AD-42

My predictions:
Democrats lose SD-01 47-53
Democrats lose AD-42 44-56

It's so weird. He keeps getting these races wrong and for some reason always seems to favor Republicans (wrongly). I don't understand why. I'm just so perplexed by this!

[LimoLiberal]

Bye Atlas! (I'm mod locked anyways, but I said on discord I would leave Atlas for three days for each special election pickup in Wisconsin)

Frostman (D) ran a stellar campaign. Congrats. Blue wave is rearing its head in Wisconsin.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Manitowoc is done:

12 Of 12 Units Have Reported

Office   Candidate Name   Votes
STATE SENATOR 1ST DIST.   REP-ANDRE M JACQUE    2258
STATE SENATOR 1ST DIST.   DEM-CALEB FROSTMAN    1680
STATE SENATOR 1ST DIST.   SCATTERING    0


Final Totals:

Frostman (D) 14606 51%
Jacque (R) 13800 49%

Again, another exact match of my prediction. I accept my accolades.

[Gass3268]