State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
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  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2  (Read 167340 times)
Badger
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« Reply #1725 on: March 22, 2019, 08:59:31 AM »

I’m going to have to manage this thread every damn Tuesday for the next two years, aren’t I.

You can get Limo banned from this board specifically to stop that, maybe Tongue
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Badger
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« Reply #1726 on: March 22, 2019, 09:01:30 AM »

Just comparing the special election results to 2016/2012 in ME/PA:

ME HD-124 went Democratic by 29 points, which is an 10.9% improvement on Clinton and a 7.6% improvement on Obama 2012.

PA HD-114 went Democratic by 24.8 points, which is a 32.5% improvement on Clinton and even a 6.5% improvement on Obama 2012.

Limo liberal and wulfric in disarray!!
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Badger
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« Reply #1727 on: March 22, 2019, 09:17:09 AM »


Miles, glad you "reappeared" here. Big thanks for your maps! It became my habit to look regularily at Decision Desk Twitter. One question: you have excellent knowledge of Southern politics. We discussed Mississippi in details recently. But what about Louisiana legislative elections? Term limits will cause very big turnover there, as lot of people, elected in 2007 (first time, when term limits were applied) are term-limited himself. Especially problematic, IMHO, is situation with few remaining white Democrats. If i am not mistaken - only 3 of them (Brown, Carter and White) may run for reelection, and chances of electing new ones in their seats, are,  usually, not good (many retiring white legislators come from 65-85% Trump districts). Your expertise would be very useful here...

It's been a while my friend! I've still been lurking around and uploading old races to the database here, but I'll likely post a bit more as Louisiana gets closer. Lots of interesting stuff happening in the legislature. Smiley

Miles has been contracted to make maps for Cook Political and Sabato before. Until anyone of us reaches that level, we do not have the right to decide what he makes and what he doesn't - unless he asks for input.

Thanks! It was great to work with them. Funny thing is they asked me for a lot of Presidential maps to help handicap downballot races. But now, I'm being told Presidential numbers are irrelevant Wink

You really don't have any idea of the amount and quality of the work Miles has consistently created and published, do you?

I'm surprised Miles even acknowledged the existence of this insignificant right-wing troll.
He must have had a slow day at the office.

Yeah, sometimes you just have to go for it on these slow days! The vast majority of you guys are awesome and I'm happy to put out the content, but always inevitably a few who just want to complain.

There was an special legislative election in Alabama last year. My map compared it to the 2017 Senate result. Jones' performance was/is obviously about the ceiling for Democrats there, so of course they underperformed him. Had a guy saying I should have compared to 2016 President instead. Can't win sometimes!

In any case, looking forward to mapping more of these special elections this year!

Keep going Miles. You and Lunar are making this forum proud.
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Badger
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« Reply #1728 on: March 22, 2019, 09:21:49 AM »

Lol



Mondale, that was quite rude of you to dox limo liberal.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1729 on: March 24, 2019, 02:18:31 AM »

I’ve finally gotten a bit of campaign mail. Some from Kiley and some from Dahle. If I’m not mistaken, the Dahle stuff said that his HQ is in Hilmar, which is far to the south of the senate district and his assembly district. Is that unusual?
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1730 on: March 26, 2019, 11:03:34 AM »

Today’s the day in California’s 1st and 33rd Senate Districts! Polls close at 8 PM Pacific (11 Eastern). I plan to be up until ~11 PM Pacific and will try to keep you guys updated on the results.
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Boobs
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« Reply #1731 on: March 26, 2019, 11:05:45 AM »

Today’s the day in California’s 1st and 33rd Senate Districts! Polls close at 8 PM Pacific (11 Eastern). I plan to be up until ~11 PM Pacific and will try to keep you guys updated on the results.

Thank you! You are making Orly proud!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1732 on: March 26, 2019, 12:00:29 PM »

I'm excited for next week's PA-37 Senate race.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1733 on: March 26, 2019, 01:38:26 PM »

We will also have a special election for SC SD 6 tonight
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Politician
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« Reply #1734 on: March 26, 2019, 06:15:56 PM »

This district voted for Romney by 37 and Trump by 30, so don't expect anything interesting. My prediction is R+24.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1735 on: March 26, 2019, 06:53:27 PM »

This district voted for Romney by 37 and Trump by 30

Please report any “time for Dems to panic?” trolling from the usual suspect to moderators tonight.
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bluesolid
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« Reply #1736 on: March 26, 2019, 07:18:46 PM »

DEM Tina Belge 2,499 44.32%
REP   Dwight A Loftis 3,137 55.63%

27/40 precincts reporting (67.5%)

Big overperformance so far.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #1737 on: March 26, 2019, 07:20:28 PM »

The Democrat in SD-6 is doing fantastic considering the voting history of the district.
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Politician
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« Reply #1738 on: March 26, 2019, 07:28:24 PM »

Wow, amazing overperformance of Clinton so far. I think it's safe to say after this, PA-HD-114, and IA-SD-30 Dems have regained their special election edge.
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bluesolid
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« Reply #1739 on: March 26, 2019, 07:51:49 PM »

"38/40 precincts reporting (95%) and Republican Dwight Loftis leads Democrat @TinaforSenate6 56-44 in South Carolina's #SD06. Pretty stunning over-performance here compared to Clinton's 31% in 2016."

— Chris Lee (@politico_chris)
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Sestak
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« Reply #1740 on: March 26, 2019, 08:00:31 PM »

Time for Dems to panic!
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1741 on: March 26, 2019, 08:12:14 PM »

Final:

Tina Belge 44.33% 3,537
Dwight A Loftis 55.63% 4,439
Write-In 0.04% 3
7,979

Not a bad start.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1742 on: March 26, 2019, 08:15:05 PM »

Just under two hours until CA polls close.

SD 1: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-senate/district/1
SD 33: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-senate/district/33

For both elections, a candidate needs an absolute majority to win tonight. Otherwise, there will be a runoff in June.
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Sestak
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« Reply #1743 on: March 26, 2019, 08:18:41 PM »

Well, the closest thing we could've had to a competitive race today ended in a Democratic overperformance. The over- or under- performance in CA-SD33, for example, is a lot less relevant unless it's massive.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1744 on: March 26, 2019, 08:39:39 PM »

Despite the horrible performance of the orange county D's with Loretta Sanchez I think the CA SD 1 will be decent for D's because the D's that are there are much of the #resistance rather than minorities moving in.
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Sestak
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« Reply #1745 on: March 26, 2019, 08:46:47 PM »

Well, the closest thing we could've had to a competitive race today ended in a Democratic overperformance. The over- or under- performance in CA-SD33, for example, is a lot less relevant unless it's massive.

No, Clinton lost CA SD-01 by a much closer but still large 54-38

Yeah, just realized that. My mistake.

Hopefully we can get a similar level overperformance in SD-01, then!
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1746 on: March 26, 2019, 09:06:36 PM »

Well, the closest thing we could've had to a competitive race today ended in a Democratic overperformance. The over- or under- performance in CA-SD33, for example, is a lot less relevant unless it's massive.

No, Clinton lost CA SD-01 by a much closer but still large 54-38

Yeah, just realized that. My mistake.

Hopefully we can get a similar level overperformance in SD-01, then!

What will be interesting to see is how Steve Baird does. He’s on the ballot as a Dem, but he was basically running a campaign mocking the Democratic Party before he dropped out a few weeks ago. Baird was a pro-Jefferson Republican when he ran for the seat in 2016.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1747 on: March 26, 2019, 10:02:45 PM »

Polls are closed.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1748 on: March 26, 2019, 10:09:03 PM »


Plus the usual situation that ballots received by Friday that are postmarked today will still be counted.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1749 on: March 26, 2019, 10:15:58 PM »

SD 1 - 6% in:

   Steve Baird
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,901   
5.2%
Silke Pflueger
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,414   
25.8%
Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
7,116   
19.5%
Theodore Dziuba
(Party Preference: REP)
550   
1.5%
Rex Hime
(Party Preference: REP)
3,657   
10.0%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
13,798   
37.9%



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