State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[KingSweden]

Decent swing in tough territory

[KingSweden]

Yep. Republican leading 55-45 in Erie County AD-142 with 50% reporting. R Flip incoming here.

https://www.erieelectionresults.com/nys.aspx

Y'all didn't believe me when I made my writeup.

AD-142 was more like a democratic primary in the general election IIRC, tho

Is this the district with one Dem on the GOP line and one on the Dem line?

[KingSweden]

I didn't really follow politics closely back then, but were republicans successful at flipping state legislature seats before 2010 midterms?

Yeah, but it was more of a long slog thing. A few here, a few there.

[KingSweden]

FFS Wulfric both candidates in 142 are Democrats

[KingSweden]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

It’s a Democrat with the R ballot line, because New York has to be special that way

[KingSweden]

I don't know what it is about New York and New Jersey, but they don't seem to see large seat turnovers in waves. New Jersey seems even more frozen in place. Republicans couldn't flip a single seat in 2013 despite winning the state Senate popular vote comfortably, and Democrats only won 1 more Senate seat despite crushing Republicans by like almost 20 points. Likewise New York Democrats only made marginal improvements in the state Senate in 2006 and 2008.

Probably a function of them being less idieological transactional machines states

[KingSweden]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

You are insufferable.

[KingSweden]

The polk county dump was way to much for the dem to withstand in 39

[KingSweden]

Bye Felicia. See you in a week

[KingSweden]

I sent a message to LimoLiberal asking him to come on here and make a concession speech, but he doesn't appear to be responding.

I love you.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/WalshFreedom/status/991522846592643077

Hey a Woke Joe Walsh sighting!

[KingSweden]

Remarks from @ScottPresler:

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If they think Michelle Wolf will cost Democrats seats, Democrats will gain 100+ seats in the house.

I’d already forgotten a Michelle Wolf was a thing

[KingSweden]

SPECIAL ELECTION ALERT: TX 13th State House election today. Republican incumbent resigned to take a lobbying job at Blinn.
The Republican candidates are Ben Leman and Jill Wolfskill and the Democratic candidate is Cecil Webster.
Should be a Republican hold.

79% Trump. Very likely - yes.

I live in this district and it looks like there is a high turnout for the early voting. I wouldn't be surprised if the Republicans have around a total 70% of the vote.

70% would be an underperformance of Prez toplines, then.

[KingSweden]

THE BLUE WAVE IS DEAD

[KingSweden]

I’m more curious how TX munis went

[KingSweden]

If Clark Mitchell doesn't lose, I will actually not go on Atlas for the seven days from Wednesday 5/16 - Wednesday 5/23. I am very confident that Republicans will flip this seat.

Boy you are bold making these kinds of pledges after backing out of every “bet”
You’ve made on this site

[KingSweden]

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Dems flip the Bucks seat while losing the SWPA seat.

[KingSweden]

Well shoot I was looking forward to a week without Limo

[KingSweden]

I remarked some weeks ago on AAD about how hilarious 48 & 178 looked side-by-side:

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It makes a lot of sense that they'd actually both flip in this climate. A New Pennsylvania!

I was just thinking this earlier today.

[KingSweden]

I wonder what did Clark Mitchell in more - the Saccone-Guy primary or living in his mom’s basement.

[KingSweden]

Yeah Tai is going to win. Tale of Two Pennsylvanias indeed.

Democrats absolutely cannot take control of the state house if they lose ancestrally democratic SW PA seats like these.

Presumably they won’t run sentient fedoras in any other Demosaur seats

[KingSweden]

The Missouri election could also give us a sense of where the US Senate contest is at. A big margin for Arthur would bode well for Claire.

[KingSweden]

If a legislator has lost the confidence of their constituents based on a vote or votes that they cast, I see little reason not to recall them.

There’s a reason why recalls aren’t allowed for members of Congress. It would ensure even less gets done.

I thought the Wisconsin recalls were a clear abuse of it, and so is this.

+100,000,000

[KingSweden]

This was the result of the CT race tonight btw

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1003812390495023104

Any comparison to previous years? CT Dems are in a bad spot so I’d be curious if that result reflects the human anchor that is Dan Malloy

[KingSweden]

My predictions:
SD-01: 52-47 Dem
AD-42: 54-46 Rep

I’ll go with this.