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August 25, 2019, 07:00:29 am
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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2  (Read 93688 times)
Silurian
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« on: April 10, 2018, 07:26:24 pm »

9% turn out in a safe dem seat. Doesnít mean anything

As has been stated hundreds of times before, averaging them together as a group is actually decently predictive of future general election results. The more special elections, the more accurate.

That being said, this swing isn't abnormal by any means. It is in line with other special election results. And it's not historically normal either. When Obama was president, Democrats consistently under-performed in special elections and got blown out in each midterm.
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Silurian
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« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2018, 10:06:17 pm »

mfw when expectations are so high you are almost underwhelmed when you lose a Romney/Trump midwest seat by double figures.

Democrats have been over-performing very consistently in special elections of all sorts, and a number of high-profile specials has moved the bar to the point where not winning seats that they wouldn't ordinarily be expected to win even in a wave* somehow becomes disappointing and used as "proof" by Republicans (or others who think Democrats will perform poorly in Nov) that their success is petering out. This has become a regular thing now both by Republicans in general and occasionally by some users here.

I'd love for my party to win them all, but I don't expect it.


* not sure how well downballot Democrats have performed in this seat over the past 10 years
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Silurian
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« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2018, 10:09:16 pm »

I'd love for this to happen, but if Iowa still voted for Trump by 9.5% after he ran a very anti-TPP campaign when farmers were one of the few specific occupational demographics which TPP was supposed to unequivocally benefit.

I think it might matter more if the people see a direct cause and effect that leads to financial problems (for themselves or people they know). Keep in mind that, as said before, Trump may have had a big winning margin but actual support wasn't that impressive. It was smaller than Obama 2012, which makes it seem more anti-Clinton than pro-Trump. With that in mind, it's not hard to see Iowa voting out a bunch of Republicans (possibly including Trump in 2020) with or without a burdensome trade war.
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Silurian
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« Reply #3 on: April 25, 2018, 10:53:29 am »

I don't know what it is about New York and New Jersey, but they don't seem to see large seat turnovers in waves. New Jersey seems even more frozen in place. Republicans couldn't flip a single seat in 2013 despite winning the state Senate popular vote comfortably, and Democrats only won 1 more Senate seat despite crushing Republicans by like almost 20 points. Likewise New York Democrats only made marginal improvements in the state Senate in 2006 and 2008.
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Silurian
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« Reply #4 on: April 25, 2018, 09:23:10 pm »

BIG....Dems now have a real shot at taking the NY Senate (thanks to scammer Simcha)

https://www.twitter.com/CapitalTonight/status/989282706600222721

Unfortunately this district is very Republican downballot.  This is Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno's old district.  This district includes all of AD-107, which Dems lost narrowly last night.

SD-43 doesn't seem too bad. It's 48.53 - 45.59% Trump, from 52.88 - 45.21% Obama. All things considered, it's not a lock, but it at least seems doable.

^ That was what I was going to post, but then I double-checked the spreadsheet, and it seems like if presidential numbers held a lot of sway here like they do in some other states, the state Senate would have long ago flipped. Republicans hold tons of Obama 2012 districts. Some of these aren't even remotely close either, like SD-56 (Robach), which went for Clinton and Obama by large double digits. How is it Republicans hold on so well to these seats? If these were the presidential numbers of seats in Virginia, Republicans would be little more than a rump party, a la OK Democrats.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1513373530
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Silurian
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« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2018, 10:31:01 pm »

More specifically, why do Republicans in the state Senate overperform so much compared to the Assembly? Assembly Republicans have been powerless since the 70s. Meanwhile, Democrats don't even hold a single Senate seat in Monroe County.

I'm thinking that, at best, New York could see a little house cleaning with Republicans over the next two cycles. The Virginia GOP held a decent number of Obama/Clinton seats until 2017, when Democrats were finally able to exploit the unpopular nature of a Republican president and turn voters against basically every politician with an R next to their name - politicians these voters were content to reelect when Obama was crushing the spirits of downballot Democrats during his presidency. It doesn't work the same for all states (as I mentioned before, NJ/NY seem to be resistant somewhat), but usually a change in the White House "shocks" the system and forces trends that existed only at the presidential level to begin developing downballot. Similar to how Bill Clinton and Obama caused mass carnage for Democrats in Southern states, where the local party had still been strong for an absurdly long time. It wouldn't be unreasonable to think this would happen in NY - even NJ Democrats performed extremely strongly in the popular vote in 2017 - far better than anytime in possibly decade(s), it's just the seat turnover was poor, maybe because of the legislative maps (?).

Does anyone know what the likely partisan composition of the New York state senate would be under a fair map?
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Silurian
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« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2018, 12:08:14 pm »

Probably one of the better trolls on the internet if he gets even a fraction of the collective outrage he generates among Atlas users, lol.

I still think this guy is LimoLOLbral

I don't know if I would call it trolling (although if it was, it would be top-notch). If you look at some of the videos/gifs of himself he posts on his feed, he is 100% involved in politics, to the point where he is spending a lot of time sending actual thank you letters to Trump voters, and standing on intersection sidewalks with skinny jeans holding MAGA signs.

I think he 100% believes what he says. That level of delusional is more common than we'd like to admit, and applicable to more than just politics.
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Silurian
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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2018, 05:14:07 pm »

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10? Smile
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Silurian
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2018, 12:55:45 am »

Yeah Tai is going to win. Tale of Two Pennsylvanias indeed.

Democrats absolutely cannot take control of the state house if they lose ancestrally democratic SW PA seats like these.

I'm curious how many of these ancestrally democratic Trump seats are held by Democrats right now, and how many will be open seats in November. That does matter, after all. It's pretty easy to see those incumbents holding these seats down until either redistricting scrambles the map sufficiently enough or they retire. It would be a different story if this was president Clinton though, where we could reasonably expect a wholesale cleansing of those Democratic holdovers. But that's not the case. Clinton-seat Republicans will have to watch their backs for the time being.
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Silurian
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« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2018, 06:04:01 pm »

Would it actually hurt Felder to switch to the Republican Party? His district is, iirc, a Romney/Trump district, although it did swing left in 2016. Going purely by the presidential numbers, if anything, the Democratic label seems like a liability rather than an asset in that district.
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Silurian
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« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2018, 03:24:42 pm »

Felder has every right to be a Democrat, period. We have free agency in this country.

Eh, there are legitimate reasons to strip some people of their Democratic Party affiliation, such as if a Republican blatantly switches to the Democratic Party just to worm their way into a safe Democratic seat, only to switch parties after and/or commit to caucusing with Republicans. If their intent is to bolster the GOP, they should be forced to run as a Republican, or anything other than a Democrat.

My only issue is how this would be enforced, which could lead to abuse. Though to be honest, I wasn't even aware they could do this in the first place, so if they actually can and it's not unconstitutional, then it doesn't seem ripe for abuse.
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Silurian
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« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2018, 04:33:52 pm »

Well if Felder is ever going to be kicked out of the party, then by that same (extremely twisted) logic, the hundreds of thousands of Orthodox Jews who he represents should be kicked out also. He's representing them very well, and just like his constituents, he chooses to be affliated as a Democrat.

Not necessarily. I don't hesitate to admit my logic is directed at elected officials who actually engage in policy making.

Legitimizing this would just make stupid, idiotic jfern-esque litmus tests easier to push in our political system, and that is an end result that is not A.O.K.

Maybe. That is why I stated that I had an issue with how it would be enforced, which I then went on to say that if they've been able to do this all along, then clearly it hasn't been abused as of yet. Still, litmus tests do become a possibility I guess, but so far they only seem to be taking umbrage with him caucusing with Republicans.
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Silurian
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« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2018, 06:31:28 pm »
« Edited: May 31, 2018, 06:34:32 pm by Virginia »


From what Iím reading, anger about the gas tax hike isnít limited t9 Republicans.

Not to mention that this gas tax is also bringing about a wave of ridiculous ballot initiatives to handicap the legislature's ability to govern in regards to taxes. Who knew that the CAGOP, almost completely powerless on any standard level, would still find a way to obstruct the lawmaking process. Lowering taxes and obstructing government is pretty much the only thing Republicans can do, and damn do they do it well.

At any rate, maybe it's time CA stops requiring a special blend of gasoline and makes other efforts to bring down gas prices. There has to be some give and take on this. If major infrastructure funding is needed, you can't just keep inflating gas prices via regulations and taxes without respite. The people will eventually get pissed off, as they are doing now, and it might just lead to incredibly boneheaded ballot initiatives that lawmakers will be dealing with for decades.
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Silurian
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« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2018, 01:48:43 pm »

Glad to be of service.   Guess we are good at forcing up your blood pressure, too.

I'm not from California, so it doesn't bother me quite the same way. I just think all these restrictions on the legislature is pretty stupid. They already require a 2/3rds majority to pass new taxes. That is already a significant hurdle.

Interesting though to see you lending credence to the idea that all modern conservatism is anymore is trolling people they disagree with.
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Silurian
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« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2018, 08:45:40 pm »

What was that 27% in 2016 vs the overall result though? I guess itís probably hard to get that information but itís hard to say what that means at this point.

What was the overall district result in 2016 btw, at the presidential level?

2016: 56.19% - 38.51% Trump
2012: 51.87% - 47.03% Romney
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Silurian
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« Reply #15 on: June 12, 2018, 08:51:03 pm »


WAKE UP CALL

Walker to Republican lawmakers: Draw up new voter suppression legislation immediately!
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Silurian
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« Reply #16 on: June 12, 2018, 08:51:38 pm »


He's on mod review right now. He actually PM'd me a post he wanted made (I think)
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Silurian
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« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2018, 09:02:05 pm »

So is Frostman registered to run for the primary for SD-01? This seat is up again this cycle, iirc. So he probably has to begin campaigning immediately (again).
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Silurian
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« Reply #18 on: June 12, 2018, 09:07:58 pm »


I'm not sure of the exact PVI, but I think so. SD-01 went for Trump by a lot more than CD-01. Both were close in 2012, by similar numbers I think.

edit:

Congressional results:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections

Wisconsin Senate:
https://docs.google.com/a/d2j.us/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1077872047
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Silurian
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« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2018, 09:25:56 pm »

Tomorrow - Wisconsin SD-01 and AD-42

My predictions:
Democrats lose SD-01 47-53
Democrats lose AD-42 44-56

It's so weird. He keeps getting these races wrong and for some reason always seems to favor Republicans (wrongly). I don't understand why. I'm just so perplexed by this!
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Silurian
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« Reply #20 on: July 31, 2018, 07:41:26 pm »

Wait, so, I know I'm late to this, but is Pete Gallego actually working backwards, so to speak? I don't think it's very common at all that former Congresspeople go back to state legislatures, no?

He must really want to hold public office bad.
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Silurian
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« Reply #21 on: July 31, 2018, 07:55:56 pm »

It happens in Ohio a surprising amount.

Congresscritters that have gone back to the State Legislature in the past 30 years: Tom Sawyer, John Boccieri, Mary Rose Oakar, Eric Fingerhut. There may be more I don't know about.

I would have thought there would be a perceived loss of prestige or something, given the nature of Congress. I guess not!

Wait, so, I know I'm late to this, but is Pete Gallego actually working backwards, so to speak? I don't think it's very common at all that former Congresspeople go back to state legislatures, no?

He must really want to hold public office bad.

Of course, in California a State Senator actually represents more people than a US Congressman.

That's a good point. Given the size of California, that is practically like a mini-Congress.
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Silurian
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« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2018, 01:30:08 am »

Margin was a bit wider in 2014, but still pretty close for CA-32. Turnout seems really low compared to total votes cast in 2014.

I'm not really going to read into this, but if I had to guess, it's possible that poor turnout from non-whites but particularly Latino voters caused a close margin and low turnout. Elections held since 2016 have shown a lot of the Democratic base is fired up, but Latino voters not so much. This fits that pattern, which is why it shouldn't worry anyone. Turnout will pick up in November and they'll hold the seat anyway.
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Silurian
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« Reply #23 on: September 19, 2018, 01:04:28 pm »

Next moderated post from you Limo and I'm banning you from this board.
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Silurian
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« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2018, 03:33:16 pm »

Next moderated post from you Limo and I'm banning you from this board.

Do what you want with Limo, I could care less, but don't pretend that this special wasn't a horrible result for Dems, especially considering the YUGE drop from the equally obscure jungle primary.

lol it was terrible. There is no disagreement from me. But I do understand in part why it happened.

My post wasn't really about that. Limo just used it to go into a tangent rife with hyperbole and krazen-like commentary, reminiscent of the posting that got him banned from the Congressional board. In discussion about this in the cave, the type of behavior that got him banned in the first place happened on both boards, but for whatever reason, he was only booted from Congressional. I don't know why that was, but if he keeps it up, I'm just going to finish the job. The gist is that I am not going through this bs for months more with him. I'm sick of it.

And gj with that straw man Wulfric.
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