State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Tartarus Sauce]

So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate tonight?

[Tartarus Sauce]

BIG....Dems now have a real shot at taking the NY Senate (thanks to scammer Simcha)

https://www.twitter.com/CapitalTonight/status/989282706600222721

Unfortunately this district is very Republican downballot.  This is Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno's old district.  This district includes all of AD-107, which Dems lost narrowly last night.

SD-43 doesn't seem too bad. It's 48.53 - 45.59% Trump, from 52.88 - 45.21% Obama. All things considered, it's not a lock, but it at least seems doable.

^ That was what I was going to post, but then I double-checked the spreadsheet, and it seems like if presidential numbers held a lot of sway here like they do in some other states, the state Senate would have long ago flipped. Republicans hold tons of Obama 2012 districts. Some of these aren't even remotely close either, like SD-56 (Robach), which went for Clinton and Obama by large double digits. How is it Republicans hold on so well to these seats? If these were the presidential numbers of seats in Virginia, Republicans would be little more than a rump party, a la OK Democrats.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1513373530

More specifically, why do Republicans in the state Senate overperform so much compared to the Assembly? Assembly Republicans have been powerless since the 70s. Meanwhile, Democrats don't even hold a single Senate seat in Monroe County.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Wow, NY Senate Republicans are retiring like crazy. This should be more than enough seats being vacated to secure at least one of them and flip the chamber.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Why are they all retiring? Did the special elections scare them that much? I mean, the special elections were fairly good for dems margin-wise and suggest dems take the senate, but they weren't like terrifying wave territory.

They do only hold the majority by one seat thanks to Simcha Felder, so it's not unreasonable at all to assume they will lose the Senate even if they perform above the national environment. Democrats are practically assured to dismantle the gerrymandered map if they control the chamber for the next round of redistricting, so I guess they're deciding to jump ship before it fully sinks.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I’d be willing to wager Andrew, re: Wisconsin specials. If Dems win both seats, you lock yourself out of your account/request a permanent-ban from the mods. If one or both lose, I do. That way Atlas can be rid of one of us forever!

Hell no, this means you'll jinx it. The Democrats will lose, you leave the forum, and we get stuck with LimoLobotomy.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I’d be willing to wager Andrew, re: Wisconsin specials. If Dems win both seats, you lock yourself out of your account/request a permanent-ban from the mods. If one or both lose, I do. That way Atlas can be rid of one of us forever!

Hell no, this means you'll jinx it. The Democrats will lose, you leave the forum, and we get stuck with LimoLobotomy.

I volunteer as tribute. Worst thing that could happen is I am forced to stop using Atlas, which I was planning on doing sooner or later anyway. Probably after the 2020 election.

Nobody wants you to volunteer as tribute to a guy that broke his promise to take a break from the forum last time he got a prediction wrong. He wouldn't fulfill his end of the deal so there's no point in you throwing your accounty away. Save your dramatic exit for something more meaningful.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Own goal on behalf of Walz, although DFL are still on track to take back the state senate in 2020.