State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2 (user search)
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  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2  (Read 168349 times)
LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« on: April 03, 2018, 02:41:14 PM »
Republicans are probably going to pick up the Massachusetts seat. They have a strong candidate (veteran and Attleboro councilwoman).
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2018, 07:16:44 PM »


Cano (D) winning in Rhode Island 73-27.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2018, 07:22:12 PM »

Crap I linked the wrong tweet. Here you go -->
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2018, 07:23:13 PM »
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2018, 07:24:37 PM »
Quote from: AMB1996 on April 03, 2018, 07:23:47 PM
MA 2nd Bristol District

Hawkins (D)3,92751.94%
Hall (R)3,63348.06%

15/15 precincts, but no word on whether this is a final total. 28.9% turnout.

Could you at least say where these numbers are coming from.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2018, 09:32:25 AM »
Quote from: PNM on April 10, 2018, 09:20:21 AM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on April 10, 2018, 09:07:35 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on April 10, 2018, 08:55:40 AM
Are there any interesting special elections tonight?

There is a safe dem seat in florida, and a potentially competitive one in Iowa.

Florida will be interesting to watch for margins. It was a part of the state where Rick Scott did worse than Trump (margins-wise) in 2014.

The dem candidate is a state rep and the R candidate is just the head of the local party committee, so I expect it to be a landslide.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2018, 06:24:59 PM »
Tami L. Donnally   
REP   4,570   
25.5%
Lori Berman   
DEM   13,354   
74.5%

Early and absentee reported. No election day vote.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2018, 06:32:36 PM »
Quote from: Singletxguyforfun on April 10, 2018, 06:30:33 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 10, 2018, 06:24:59 PM
Tami L. Donnally   
REP   4,570   
25.5%
Lori Berman   
DEM   13,354   
74.5%

Early and absentee reported. No election day vote.

Florida or Iowa?

Florida. 61-36 Clinton seat, so the democrat is putting up a 24 point margin swing so far.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2018, 08:00:22 PM »
Have a feeling the Republican is going to win by 15+ in Iowa. The republican candidate has a great profile (former state rep) while the dem candidate is kind of meh.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2018, 09:06:20 PM »
First one to post results gets 100 colombian pesos.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2018, 09:09:22 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 10, 2018, 08:00:22 PM
Have a feeling the Republican is going to win by 15+ in Iowa. The republican candidate has a great profile (former state rep) while the dem candidate is kind of meh.

Yep. Republican leading 61-38 in Hardin county early vote. Going to be a disappointing night.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2018, 09:13:18 PM »
All of Hardin county in. Sweeney (R) won it 61.5 - 38.5. Clinton lost the two-party vote 65.5 - 34.5 in 2016 for the portion in SD-25.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2018, 09:16:28 PM »
Story county is the big democratic stronghold here. Clinton only lost the SD-25 portion 53-39. Freese needs to run up the score there to keep it close.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2018, 09:20:26 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on April 10, 2018, 09:17:33 PM


Freese leading in the absentees in Story County

*IF* she can hold that percentage (58-42) she can make this a race. Story county casts the most votes in this district.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #14 on: April 10, 2018, 09:25:59 PM »
Freese WINS Story county 56-44: http://www.storycountyiowa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/8228

But, she only nets 300 votes.

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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #15 on: April 10, 2018, 09:28:19 PM »

Sweeney (R) leads Freese (D) 53-47 (2943-2560). Massive underperformance from 2016 if it holds. But two conservative counties still to come in should push that margin up.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #16 on: April 10, 2018, 09:31:29 PM »
Let's hope that Freese lives in Grundy and owns a small business in Butler...
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #17 on: April 10, 2018, 09:35:15 PM »
Freese is screwed. Sweeney represented both Butler and Grundy counties in her state house seat. I think we'll see a final margin of 57-43 for the Republican.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #18 on: April 10, 2018, 09:37:39 PM »
Story county really, really, really had awful turnout night. Way underrepresented in the final totals.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #19 on: April 10, 2018, 09:56:32 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on April 10, 2018, 09:54:19 PM
Okay, Butler County, how bad is it? 60% R? 70% R? 80% R?

The SD-25 portion went 66-29 while the county as a whole went 66-29 for Trump. But Obama only lost here in 2012 54-44, so Freese conceivably could stem the bleeding if she matched his margin. Seems ancestrally more democratic.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #20 on: April 10, 2018, 10:06:33 PM »
All of Butler county in: Freese loses it 57.5 - 42.5 with the Republican netting about 140 votes.

https://www.butlercoiowa.org/images/SPECIAL_ELECTION_RESULTS_WILL_BE_POSTED_AS_SOON_AS_THEY_BECOME_AVAILABLE.pdf
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #21 on: April 24, 2018, 08:05:27 PM »
Looking back on the 2017 AD-09 special in Suffolk we flipped, we didn't start getting results until 9:40.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #22 on: April 24, 2018, 08:16:35 PM »


That would be 56-44.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #23 on: April 24, 2018, 08:18:07 PM »


Could you link the page for this?
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #24 on: April 24, 2018, 08:33:39 PM »
Uh-oh. Stern (D) losing narrowly in early results from Suffolk County AD-10 where a flip was expected. It's an obama-clinton seat.

http://apps.suffolkcountyny.gov/boe/eleres/18s1/flashresults.html
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