State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[junior chįmp]

The NY Assembly is already so Democratic that picking up another seat don't mean much

Until the Cuomomander is undone...the Senate will stay R

[junior chįmp]

Tague (R) is gonna win in AD-102

Look at Scoharie county: https://www.google.com/search?q=scoharie+county+election+results&oq=scoharie+county+elec&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j0j69i57j0l3.2206j0j1&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Which is not reported on the NYS Board site.

Will u calm down already

[junior chįmp]

So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate?

No...scammer Simcha Felder is registered as D but votes R

[junior chįmp]

Looks like a lot of New Yorkers were motivated to not vote.  I guess the attitude was it really did not matter.

NY also has some of the most restrictive voting laws in America. Worse than any red state I can think of

[junior chįmp]

BIG....Dems now have a real shot at taking the NY Senate (thanks to scammer Simcha)

https://www.twitter.com/CapitalTonight/status/989282706600222721

[junior chįmp]

More specifically, why do Republicans in the state Senate overperform so much compared to the Assembly? Assembly Republicans have been powerless since the 70s. Meanwhile, Democrats don't even hold a single Senate seat in Monroe County.

I'm thinking that, at best, New York could see a little house cleaning with Republicans over the next two cycles. The Virginia GOP held a decent number of Obama/Clinton seats until 2017, when Democrats were finally able to exploit the unpopular nature of a Republican president and turn voters against basically every politician with an R next to their name - politicians these voters were content to reelect when Obama was crushing the spirits of downballot Democrats during his presidency. It doesn't work the same for all states (as I mentioned before, NJ/NY seem to be resistant somewhat), but usually a change in the White House "shocks" the system and forces trends that existed only at the presidential level to begin developing downballot. Similar to how Bill Clinton and Obama caused mass carnage for Democrats in Southern states, where the local party had still been strong for an absurdly long time. It wouldn't be unreasonable to think this would happen in NY - even NJ Democrats performed extremely strongly in the popular vote in 2017 - far better than anytime in possibly decade(s), it's just the seat turnover was poor, maybe because of the legislative maps (?).

Does anyone know what the likely partisan composition of the New York state senate would be under a fair map?

A fair map would have on average 38 D seats:

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[junior chįmp]

So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate?

No...scammer Simcha Felder is registered as D but votes R

Wait a minute. I don't have the link, but I read an article in the last day or two that Felder is expected, after extracting significant concessions from the party of course, to rejoin the Democratic caucus 2 stay in the majority.

It makes sense. I'm guessing he realizes that the IDC is, at least temporarily, crumbling and the chances of Republicans somehow keeping there Ultra fragile majority in the next year or two it is unlikely. Therefore he wants to extract his concessions now when they're worth a lot as opposed to in two years when the Democrats hold a 2 or 3 seat majority even without him.

There's no reason for Felder to join the Dems. He has nothing to gain and he can never lose. His district goes through the heart of Jewish Midwood, Boro Park and Flatbush, and has the largest concentration of Jews in N America. If it wasn't for gerrymandering, there would be 2 GOP Jewish districts and a third GOP Catholic district in Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst.

[junior chįmp]

2 more GOP NY State Senators flee:

Hudson Valley Republican John Bonacic won’t run for re-election to the state Senate.

Sen. John DeFrancisco won’t seek re-election to the state Senate in November, according to his spokeswoman.

Cuomomander is so close to being finished

[junior chįmp]

2 more GOP NY State Senators flee:

Hudson Valley Republican John Bonacic won’t run for re-election to the state Senate.

Sen. John DeFrancisco won’t seek re-election to the state Senate in November, according to his spokeswoman.

Cuomomander is so close to being finished

What are the PVIs of those seats? Are they probable D pickups?

Both are districts that voted for Obama twice but then swung toward Trump so it's possible

[junior chįmp]

Another LimoLib self own

[junior chįmp]

We have final results in the non-competitive seat now:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Josie Tomkow   
REP   9,891   
59.88%
Ricky Shirah   
DEM   6,628   
40.12%
Total    16,519

Better than the 2016 result for the state legislature there, at least.

Only a very minor swing to the GOP from the Pres race too:

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/991465462100873221

Not lookin good for Prick Scott

[junior chįmp]

IDC is done

Fourth Republican announces Senate retirement

Long Island Sen. Tom Croci made his rumored departure official and told his Republican colleagues that he won’t be pursuing re-election in November.

[junior chįmp]

Another one!

Sen. Bill Larkin plans to hold a press conference on Thursday to announce what is expected to be his decision to forego re-election, a retirement that would cap a 40-year career in Albany and make him the fifth Republican senator in the last two weeks to announce their departure.

[junior chįmp]

IDC=ded

Fifth NY GOP state senator in a week announces retirement plans

[junior chįmp]

Wow, NY Senate Republicans are retiring like crazy. This should be more than enough seats being vacated to secure at least one of them and flip the chamber.

Rumor has it there may be up to 5-6 more GOP retirements in the State Senate. About 40% of the GOPers in the State Senate may bail before November

[junior chįmp]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/996563263788904449

Blue tsunami imminent

[junior chįmp]

Yuge blue tsunami imminent. 40% swing is insane. If that keeps up, dems win the PV by 42%

The worst night of Republicans lives - Mitch McConnell found dead beneath coal grave.

[junior chįmp]

Looks like Helen Tai will win in a crushing defeat to Andrew_1918

Resident clown Krazen self owns yet again with his classic "Moore in the lead!" prediction:

Wendi Thomas with a massive lead!

178th Legislative District County Breakdown
TAI, HELEN D
(DEM)
39.03%
    Votes: 402
THOMAS, WENDI
(REP)
60.97%
    Votes: 628

[junior chįmp]

BIG

https://www.twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/997574306472321024

[junior chįmp]

Do it please.

LOCK HIM OUT

[junior chįmp]

They called the race for Teresa Gallegos on Kark.com, a branch of MSNBC. Is that a Dem pickup?

The GOP is finished

[junior chįmp]

BIG

https://www.twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/997574306472321024

Felder is done

https://www.twitter.com/BlakeMorris4NYS/status/999448071267405825

[junior chįmp]

MN Senate in play

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[junior chįmp]

Erotic Eric is apparently asphyxiating the MO GOP in the upcuming special elections:

https://www.twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1000756245303910400

[junior chįmp]

This is like the 4th or so most Republican district in the state. It'll be a real challenge.

True....but Klobuchar did carry the district:

https://www.twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1001847320248545280

Could be a possibility in this enviorment