State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Bidenworth2020]

I'm told that the Attleboro numbers are final: Hawkins holds the seat for the Democrats, 3,927-3,633.

What was the swing?

15 points i believe, still embarassing cuz dems rans some guy

[Bidenworth2020]

Mayer up by 2024 votes now; if this doesn't start reversing very soon, I'm calling it:

is this an over and underperformance?

[Bidenworth2020]

Obvious disclaimers, but the Dem is leading in early returns in AR-16!!!

da,m lol

[Bidenworth2020]

Cool, the Republican won the race against the Republican! So riveting.

Anyway, onto the big show for today! MN!

I am queasy about this one. This was completely unnecessary, Walz should have picked somebody from a solid blue seat in the twin cities or somewhere else. Why pick somebody from this kind of a district? Why risk it? Surely there are qualified people from solid blue areas in the twin cities, duluth proper, rochester proper, moorehead proper, etc. all around the state.

Eh, C'est La Vie. All that matters at this moment is that we win this seat.

Hopefully, the GOP really geared up for this race and is taking it very seriously. They got a really good candidate. This was one of the very few areas that the GOP picked up in the US House in the entire nation in 2018. Granted, the incumbent left, but so did the incumbent here too. This is ripe flipping ground.

It is safe democrat, look at this objectively.

[Bidenworth2020]

Cool, the Republican won the race against the Republican! So riveting.

Anyway, onto the big show for today! MN!

I am queasy about this one. This was completely unnecessary, Walz should have picked somebody from a solid blue seat in the twin cities or somewhere else. Why pick somebody from this kind of a district? Why risk it? Surely there are qualified people from solid blue areas in the twin cities, duluth proper, rochester proper, moorehead proper, etc. all around the state.

Eh, C'est La Vie. All that matters at this moment is that we win this seat.

Hopefully, the GOP really geared up for this race and is taking it very seriously. They got a really good candidate. This was one of the very few areas that the GOP picked up in the US House in the entire nation in 2018. Granted, the incumbent left, but so did the incumbent here too. This is ripe flipping ground.

It is safe democrat, look at this objectively.

"Safe dem", lol, sorry, I bet even most of Atlas would not go that far.

it will be narrow, but there is an 100% chance that it goes democrat.

[Bidenworth2020]

Cool, the Republican won the race against the Republican! So riveting.

Anyway, onto the big show for today! MN!

I am queasy about this one. This was completely unnecessary, Walz should have picked somebody from a solid blue seat in the twin cities or somewhere else. Why pick somebody from this kind of a district? Why risk it? Surely there are qualified people from solid blue areas in the twin cities, duluth proper, rochester proper, moorehead proper, etc. all around the state.

Eh, C'est La Vie. All that matters at this moment is that we win this seat.

Hopefully, the GOP really geared up for this race and is taking it very seriously. They got a really good candidate. This was one of the very few areas that the GOP picked up in the US House in the entire nation in 2018. Granted, the incumbent left, but so did the incumbent here too. This is ripe flipping ground.

It is safe democrat, look at this objectively.

"Safe dem", lol, sorry, I bet even most of Atlas would not go that far.

it will be narrow, but there is an 100% chance that it goes democrat.

Lol no, Rarick has more than a 0% chance of winning, and a narrow race cannot be safe D.

ms sen special was safe r, and it was pretty narrow.

[Bidenworth2020]

Cool, the Republican won the race against the Republican! So riveting.


Anyway, onto the big show for today! MN!

I am queasy about this one. This was completely unnecessary, Walz should have picked somebody from a solid blue seat in the twin cities or somewhere else. Why pick somebody from this kind of a district? Why risk it? Surely there are qualified people from solid blue areas in the twin cities, duluth proper, rochester proper, moorehead proper, etc. all around the state.

Eh, C'est La Vie. All that matters at this moment is that we win this seat.

Hopefully, the GOP really geared up for this race and is taking it very seriously. They got a really good candidate. This was one of the very few areas that the GOP picked up in the US House in the entire nation in 2018. Granted, the incumbent left, but so did the incumbent here too. This is ripe flipping ground.

It is safe democrat, look at this objectively.

"Safe dem", lol, sorry, I bet even most of Atlas would not go that far.

it will be narrow, but there is an 100% chance that it goes democrat.

Lol no, Rarick has more than a 0% chance of winning, and a narrow race cannot be safe D.

ms sen special was safe r, and it was pretty narrow.

It was Likely R.

no, it was safe r, you said so

[Bidenworth2020]

Cool, the Republican won the race against the Republican! So riveting.


Anyway, onto the big show for today! MN!

I am queasy about this one. This was completely unnecessary, Walz should have picked somebody from a solid blue seat in the twin cities or somewhere else. Why pick somebody from this kind of a district? Why risk it? Surely there are qualified people from solid blue areas in the twin cities, duluth proper, rochester proper, moorehead proper, etc. all around the state.

Eh, C'est La Vie. All that matters at this moment is that we win this seat.

Hopefully, the GOP really geared up for this race and is taking it very seriously. They got a really good candidate. This was one of the very few areas that the GOP picked up in the US House in the entire nation in 2018. Granted, the incumbent left, but so did the incumbent here too. This is ripe flipping ground.

It is safe democrat, look at this objectively.

"Safe dem", lol, sorry, I bet even most of Atlas would not go that far.

it will be narrow, but there is an 100% chance that it goes democrat.

Lol no, Rarick has more than a 0% chance of winning, and a narrow race cannot be safe D.

ms sen special was safe r, and it was pretty narrow.

It was Likely R.

no, it was safe r, you said so

I also said she would win 61-39, hindsight changes things. With hindsight, that was likely R.

link to results

[Bidenworth2020]

Rarick is now surging ahead.

lmao, just wait till it crashes

[Bidenworth2020]

Rarick is now surging ahead.

lmao, just wait till it crashes

You thought it was safe D and gave Rarick a 0% chance dunce.

and the above is still accurate

[Bidenworth2020]

Ratico has this. Crushing loss for the Minnesota DFL.

lol, he is going to lose, no doubt

[Bidenworth2020]

Ratico has this. Crushing loss for the Minnesota DFL.

lol, he is going to lose, no doubt

This post will looks so dumb in about 30 minutes.

lol k,same for you

[Bidenworth2020]

Ratico has this. Crushing loss for the Minnesota DFL.

lol, he is going to lose, no doubt

This post will looks so dumb in about 30 minutes.

lol k,same for you

Ok Safe D 0% Rarick.

you mean being perfectly accurate?

[Bidenworth2020]

The race isnt even over you two. Quit it with the #DemsInDisarray garbage.

dude, lourey is winning newberg precincts, this is over the other way

[Bidenworth2020]

The race isnt even over you two. Quit it with the #DemsInDisarray garbage.

dude, lourey is winning newberg precincts, this is over the other way

I expect an apology when this is over.

as long as you do the same when lourey wins

[Bidenworth2020]

lourey takes the lead... like i was surprised

[Bidenworth2020]

The race isnt even over you two. Quit it with the #DemsInDisarray garbage.

dude, lourey is winning newberg precincts, this is over the other way

I expect an apology when this is over.

as long as you do the same when lourey wins

I don't owe jack schitt regarding that Safe D 0% Rarick. I said that this would be a close 51-46 race, and it is not over yet.

was talking to limo my dude

[Bidenworth2020]

hmm... oh boy i dont wanna apologize to limo

[Bidenworth2020]

how much did hillary win by?

[Bidenworth2020]

Lamont backlash maybe? Honestly I have no idea what happened.

[Bidenworth2020]

The Connecticut results are kinda surprising, and concerning I guess (sort of).    Voter apathy I guess?

Yeah, the turnout was utterly pitiful. Like honestly it makes me concerned.

[Bidenworth2020]

I'm not really bothering to follow special anymore, they were of limited utility in predicting the wave in 2018. However, during the 2017-2018 special election cycle, Democrats underperformed in Connecticut as well as the deep south quite a bit.

The classic response to a warning sign of a problem - disregard and pretend everything is fine. The Problem - everything is not fine.

The trend of special elections is worrying, yes, but I do not think it is time to go into panic mode yet. I would start to ig dems dont pick up the PA seat, though.

[Bidenworth2020]

Okay, after reading more about Lamont, I'm not as surprised about losing in Connecticut anymore. 

Raising taxes on groceries?

Having all vehicles pay tolls?

Eliminating the estate tax?

This governor is awful, no wonder people are at pissed at CT Dems.   They deserved this loss. 

On the other hand, though, he managed to get a surplus. So pretty impressive in my book.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1103093254428463104

this is pike or the total seat?

[Bidenworth2020]

hey, it wasn't THAT bad. I'd rank this is a net positive in the 2019 gov race.