State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Oryxslayer]

Are there any interesting special elections tonight?

There is a safe dem seat in florida, and a potentially competitive one in Iowa.

[Oryxslayer]

Obama lost this district by 5 against McCain, while winning the state overall by 9 points. Its a very Republican district.

And Obama's 2008 performance in Iowa is pretty much the high watermark for Dems.

Iowa voted for Dukakis 1988, and Clinton 1996 by double digits.

The era of the farm bill is long past us, we got several new political generations in the state now.

[Oryxslayer]

Asides from the DDHQ reports we don't have anything from the competitive seats. All thats in is from the Safe D inflexible city seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Gr...Upstate why you so slow.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW, since nobody has yet stated it we can call, AD-39, AD-72, AD-80, and SD-32 for the dems. All City seats that were never going to move thanks to heavy partisanship.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW dems ahead in AD102 with 1 precinct in (LUL)

dems ahead 896-697 with 17 precincts in AD107

[Oryxslayer]

AD5 - Slinkosky D 1159 (38.6%), Smith R 1839 (61.4%) 53/82

AD10 - Stern D 4250 (57.1%), Smitelli R 3191 (42.9%) 79/105

AD102 O'Conner D 37 954.4%), Tague R 31 (45.6%) 1/126

Ad17 Doran D 896 (56.1%), Ashby R 697 (43.6%) 17/111

[Oryxslayer]

More from 102:

35/126

O'Conner 47.6% - 2322

Tague 50.4% - 2458

[Oryxslayer]

64/126

O'Conner 4474 51.11%

Tague 4133 47.22%

[Oryxslayer]

AD102 67/126

O'Conner 50.53% 4656

Tague 47.7%  4396

[Oryxslayer]

Something to note of course is that if 102 is this close, then Similar yet more dem friendly 107 is probably a D flip once we get more numbers.

[Oryxslayer]

AD102  79/126

O'Conner 50.62% 5364

Tague 47.58% 5042

[Oryxslayer]

BTW 5 and 10 are all done. Final margins:

AD5: Smith (R) 2,840 63.06% to Slinkosky (D) 1,658 38.81%

AD10: Stern (D) 5,748 59.12% to Smiteli (R) 3,962 40.82%

[Oryxslayer]

Finally AD17:

83/109

Malin (D) 32.2% 806

Mikulin (R) 66.75% 1670

[Oryxslayer]

And 142 isn't even a "R" its just weird.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

The GOP held 4 of these seats coming into tonight. Tonight, they've won ADs 5, 17, and 107. 102 and 142 are uncalled but they lead in both. That's 5, one more than 4, if they sweep.

They held AD-10 before tonight and lost that.

Right, but one of 102 or 107 is currently held by Ds (forget which), and 142 is also D-held.

No they were both R held https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/4/21/1758947/-April-24-New-York-s-Spring-Special-Elections-Spectacular

R's lost one if we assume 142 stays in caucus, or wash if take the label at face value

[Oryxslayer]

All done:

AD102 : Tague (R) 45.9%, 8,547 to O'Conner (D) 44.3% 8,295 to Laraway (I) 9.7% 1,809

AD107 : Ashby (R) 51.1% 7,558 to Doran (D) 48.7% 7,205

D+1 on the night thanks to oddities in Erie.

[Oryxslayer]

Today there are 4 specials - 2 in florida and one each in Massachusetts and in South Carolina. Only the Florida ones are contested by both sides though. We should get our results quickly, if  past results are to judge, thankfully.

[Oryxslayer]

Considering Democrats only gained the 114th in Florida in 2016 by a narrow margin at the same time that Trump was massively underperforming there, it would not particularly surprise me if they don't hold on to this one tonight. Unless either candidate wins in a landslide, I doubt it will tell us much of anything about the congressional elections in South Florida, given that Trump is absolutely going to be a factor in those races.

It will be interesting to compare thus to the SD40 race last fall, and see what has changed.

[Oryxslayer]

http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/ElectionResults/default?Election=05/01/2018 <- SOS page

[Oryxslayer]

Early voting now in
Vargas(R) 49.69% 6450
Fernandez(D) 47.59% 6178

Wow. Fernandez is winning... if I’m reading that correctly. That’s not Election Day, right?

Yes, that is in-person early voting + absentee voting.

This electorate was 46% GOP, 37% Dem, 17% NPA

Wow, so the Dem won the lion’s share of independents.

Probably some of the GOP as well, like we have seen in the past in areas where GOP registration outpaces clinton vote.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm just realizing now that this is a Dem hold rather then a gain. I thought this was another open Cuban seat like the ones last year.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/996374995722035201?s=19



JMC giving us nice maps. Wouldn't be suprised if this flips, especially with the fierce D primary being fought in PA-01.

[Oryxslayer]

I remarked some weeks ago on AAD about how hilarious 48 & 178 looked side-by-side:

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It makes a lot of sense that they'd actually both flip in this climate. A New Pennsylvania!

Moral of the Story: Hold a special election off cycle - you get wild swings like in PA-18. Hold a special election on cycle - you get correlated swings like in VA-Deleagtes.

[Oryxslayer]

Would it actually hurt Felder to switch to the Republican Party? His district is, iirc, a Romney/Trump district, although it did swing left in 2016. Going purely by the presidential numbers, if anything, the Democratic label seems like a liability rather than an asset in that district.

I don't think it'll matter much for him in all honesty. He is popular with the Orthodox Jewish majority in his district, and that will keep him safe unless that popularity changes.

Yep. This image would probably be just reinforced if he became a iindie.