State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[kph14]

So, both parties have reasons to be satisfied to some (but - not full) extent. Democrats held an important state Senate seat, and flipped relatively "low-hanging fruit" in AD10, but got a stern reminder in AD142: even in the North-East a "progressive" isn't always the best candidate (AFAIK - Buffalo area is full of "old school" Democrats: pro-labor, pro-gun and pro-life, for example). Republicans formally flipped AD142, and narrowly escaped defeats in 2 other districts, a sort of achievement in present environment..

Well the new Assemblyman from district 142 is a union-backed registered Democrat who plans to caucus with the Democrats. I wouldn’t really call that a flipped seat

[kph14]

Im fully expecting Dems to lose FL-HD-114.

The important election is in November anyway.

[kph14]

Gonna be a close race.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/991453052157808640

Dems need around 60% of NPA with these numbers. Looks doable to me

[kph14]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

In-person early vote is not in that number. Should be good enough for at least 500 votes in the margin

[kph14]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

You are insufferable.

Nothing I wrote in that blurb is wrong. The blue wave isn't dead. But it's still a bad loss for Florida democrats, and really casts doubt on the ability to topple Carlos Curbelo.

Matthew Isbell is still calling it a tossup

[kph14]

Early voting now in
Vargas(R) 49.69% 6450
Fernandez(D) 47.59% 6178

[kph14]

The rest of the early vote came in, narrowed the margin to under 300. Still waiting on E-day:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Andrew Vargas   
REP   6,450   
49.69%
Javier Fernandez   
DEM   6,178   
47.59%
Liz de las Cuevas   
NPA   353   
2.72%
Total    12,981

Fernandez has this.

[kph14]

Early voting now in
Vargas(R) 49.69% 6450
Fernandez(D) 47.59% 6178

Wow. Fernandez is winning... if I’m reading that correctly. That’s not Election Day, right?

Yes, that is in-person early voting + absentee voting.

This electorate was 46% GOP, 37% Dem, 17% NPA

[kph14]

If Vargas doesn't win, I'll quit Atlas for a week. He's going to win. Not concern-trolling, but Fernandez can't make that deficit up.

And, no, the blue wave is still on. This is just Cuban Republicans being Cuban Republicans.

Finally, why does Osceola only have 4% turnout? Is that a typo?

300 vote difference and 3000 election day votes. Fernandez will win by 1-3 points.

[kph14]

Miami-Dade updated!!!

Fernandez (D) 50.84% 8433
Vargas (R) 46.70% 7747

[kph14]

Miami-Dade updated!!!

Fernandez (D) 50.84% 8433
Vargas (R) 46.70% 7747

55/64 precincts

[kph14]

Fernandez was endorsed by Joe Biden a few days ago. In the Trump era, Joe's something like 16 to 1 now

[kph14]

https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/991465447810916353

Lol. I don't want to see any bragging from a Miami dem. While this area is more gop downballot, this should have been a much bigger dem win.

FL dems really need to start organizing.

Obama only won by a point here in 2012...

[kph14]

This was the result of the CT race tonight btw

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1003812390495023104

Any comparison to previous years? CT Dems are in a bad spot so I’d be curious if that result reflects the human anchor that is Dan Malloy

Democrats won it 87-12 in 2016 while Clinton carried it 88-6. So a swing in the Dems favor but what is it worth with a turnout of around 700 votes?

[kph14]

Trump won this area by like 17 points

He won the seat 52-48, Kander won it 55-45 and Koster won it 52-48

[kph14]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1003984539847454720

[kph14]

Welcome to the last major state legislative special elections of the 2017-18 cycle. While there will be one election in CA and one election in AR in August, neither is expected to be competitive. The excitement, for all intents and purposes, ends tonight. Polls will close at 9 ET tonight.

For both elections, results are reported individually by county. Add up results from all counties to get the total result.

-----------------------------

WI Senate 1:

Brown County - https://www.co.brown.wi.us/i_brown/d/county_clerk/election_results/06122018/el45_zero-reports.pdf?t=1526917179

Calumet County - http://www.co.calumet.wi.us/index.aspx?NID=139

Door County - No page available?

Kewaunee County - http://www.co.kewaunee.wi.gov/section.asp?linkid=2231&locid=192

Manitowoc County - http://elections.co.manitowoc.wi.us:8011/nsccalo/eltotals

Outagamie County - http://www.outagamie.org/home/showdocument?id=57713

------------------

WI Assembly 42:

Columbia County - http://www.co.columbia.wi.us/columbiacounty/countyclerk/ElectionInformation/ElectionReturnResults/June12,2018ElectionResults/tabid/3685/Default.aspx (though in another annoyance of covering these elections, you have to manually total up each precinct to get the total - there is no running total for the whole county on the page. An alternative source would be welcome if one can be found.)

Dane County - https://elections.countyofdane.com/electiondetail.aspx?id=97

Dodge County - http://www.co.dodge.wi.gov/home/showdocument?id=28239

Fond Du Lac County - something may appear at http://www.fdlco.wi.gov/departments/departments-a-e/county-clerk/election-results eventually.

Green Lake County - No page available?

Marquette County - http://www.co.marquette.wi.us/home/showdocument?id=11173

Door County: http://www.co.door.wi.gov/docview.asp?docid=10563&locid=137

[kph14]

Door county completely in Frostman(D) wins it 4712-2804.

He is now up in my total count: 10055-8700 (54-46)

[kph14]

Frostman wins Outagamie 55-45. He has this. D+1

[kph14]

Candidate
Votes
Percent
Caleb Frostman
11,545
52%
Andre Jacque
10,540
48%
Precincts Reporting: 71 of 93
Percent Reporting: 76%

All depends on Outagamie county. Clinton only lost it 40-54 in SD-01. Frostman needs to do well (break even) to keep the 1000 vote cushion from Door.

Like I said, Frostman won it 55-45