State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Sestak]

Which CD is this district in?

[Sestak]

Republican held districts are 10,17,102, and 107, right?

[Sestak]

BTW 5 and 10 are all done. Final margins:

AD5: Smith (R) 2,840 63.06% to Slinkosky (D) 1,658 38.81%

AD10: Stern (D) 5,748 59.12% to Smiteli (R) 3,962 40.82%

Smith actually overperformed Limo's AD-5 prediction.

[Sestak]

Where is the results page?

[Sestak]

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

[Sestak]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

[Sestak]

No. They had 5,10,17,102,107.

(At least according to Limo's thread)

[Sestak]

Looks like a lot of New Yorkers were motivated to not vote.  I guess the attitude was it really did not matter.

NY also has some of the most restrictive voting laws in America. Worse than any red state I can think of

This is, of course, due to Republican control of the state senate.

Actually, Cuomo and the NY Dems also hold a good share of the blame here.

[Sestak]

LmaoLiberal. Back to Virginia form, are we? I'm disappointed. Enjoy your week off.

Still don't support banning him. He's much more reasonable than Lear (he did think Lamb would win IIRC), and is actually capable of backing up his slightly hackish predictions. And I want SOMEONE to get owned in November.

[Sestak]

Not a special election, but reposting from the Congressional thread:

Holy Crap!

https://twitter.com/AP/status/999091671789899777

[Sestak]

Are there even any specials today? I thought only next week...

[Sestak]

Guys, OF F[inks]ING COURSE THEY WEREN’T GOING TO KEEP OVDRPERFORMING. That’s generally what happens after you have a successful election. Trend currently is concerning but we’ll see how it goes with time. Worth noting that presidentials do have different dynamics than midterms due to the fact that everything in pretty much every race is swayed by how the national candidates so far.

Also we’ve been sliding in CT for a while; especially considering the margin in the gov race vs national environment.

I’m not entirely relaxed about it; it’s worrisome. But not time for panic mode just yet either.

[Sestak]

Guys, OF F[inks]ING COURSE THEY WEREN’T GOING TO KEEP OVDRPERFORMING. That’s generally what happens after you have a successful election. Trend currently is concerning but we’ll see how it goes with time. Worth noting that presidentials do have different dynamics than midterms due to the fact that everything in pretty much every race is swayed by how the national candidates so far.

Also we’ve been sliding in CT for a while; especially considering the margin in the gov race vs national environment.

I’m not entirely relaxed about it; it’s worrisome. But not time for panic mode just yet either.

2018 was not a successful election by any stretch of the imagination for Democrats. They missed the mark on all the parameters that measure Democratic success tooled for the 2018 elections:

Success in House: Do Democrats have 243 or more seats in the House? No, failure of a cycle.
Success in Senate: Do Democrats have 51 or more seats in the Senate? No, failure of a cycle.
Success in Governorships: Do Democrats have 30 or more total Governorships? No, failure of a cycle.

2018 was a complete failure for the Democrats on every level.

Uh, what kind of idiotic benchmarks are those? Dems only hit one of those in 2006 (the Senate one), and Republicans only one (the Governorship one, and number of governorships is something in which Republicans have a systemic edge) in 2010.

[Sestak]

Wow there are a lot of these happening tomorrow.

[Sestak]

Wow there are a lot of these happening tomorrow.

List?

ME HD 124
MS HD 32
MS HD 71
MS HD 101
PA HD 114
PA HD 190
TN SD 32

[Sestak]

LMAO Miles

[Sestak]

Miles, glad you "reappeared" here. Big thanks for your maps! It became my habit to look regularily at Decision Desk Twitter. One question: you have excellent knowledge of Southern politics. We discussed Mississippi in details recently. But what about Louisiana legislative elections? Term limits will cause very big turnover there, as lot of people, elected in 2007 (first time, when term limits were applied) are term-limited himself. Especially problematic, IMHO, is situation with few remaining white Democrats. If i am not mistaken - only 3 of them (Brown, Carter and White) may run for reelection, and chances of electing new ones in their seats, are,  usually, not good (many retiring white legislators come from 65-85% Trump districts). Your expertise would be very useful here...

It's been a while my friend! I've still been lurking around and uploading old races to the database here, but I'll likely post a bit more as Louisiana gets closer. Lots of interesting stuff happening in the legislature.

Miles has been contracted to make maps for Cook Political and Sabato before. Until anyone of us reaches that level, we do not have the right to decide what he makes and what he doesn't - unless he asks for input.

Thanks! It was great to work with them. Funny thing is they asked me for a lot of Presidential maps to help handicap downballot races. But now, I'm being told Presidential numbers are irrelevant

You really don't have any idea of the amount and quality of the work Miles has consistently created and published, do you?

I'm surprised Miles even acknowledged the existence of this insignificant right-wing troll.
He must have had a slow day at the office.

Yeah, sometimes you just have to go for it on these slow days! The vast majority of you guys are awesome and I'm happy to put out the content, but always inevitably a few who just want to complain.

There was an special legislative election in Alabama last year. My map compared it to the 2017 Senate result. Jones' performance was/is obviously about the ceiling for Democrats there, so of course they underperformed him. Had a guy saying I should have compared to 2016 President instead. Can't win sometimes!

In any case, looking forward to mapping more of these special elections this year!

Keep doing what you do, man. Your maps are great!

[Sestak]

Time for Dems to panic!

[Sestak]

Well, the closest thing we could've had to a competitive race today ended in a Democratic overperformance. The over- or under- performance in CA-SD33, for example, is a lot less relevant unless it's massive.

[Sestak]

Well, the closest thing we could've had to a competitive race today ended in a Democratic overperformance. The over- or under- performance in CA-SD33, for example, is a lot less relevant unless it's massive.

No, Clinton lost CA SD-01 by a much closer but still large 54-38

Yeah, just realized that. My mistake.

Hopefully we can get a similar level overperformance in SD-01, then!

[Sestak]

Currently an R overperformance (slightly) but I'm not sure what's in yet.

[Sestak]

It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.

What makes Kiley preferable?