State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Mr.Phips]

Obama lost this district by 5 against McCain, while winning the state overall by 9 points. Its a very Republican district.

And Obama's 2008 performance in Iowa is pretty much the high watermark for Dems.

[Mr.Phips]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

107th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 86,761)   Election Districts Reporting: 104 of 111
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Cynthia Doran   DEM   .   41.01 %   5,840   .   47.96 %   6,829
WOR   .   4.23 %   602           
WEP   .   2.72 %   387           
Jacob C. Ashby   REP   .   36.67 %   5,222   .   51.91 %   7,391
CON   .   10.00 %   1,424           
IND   .   4.60 %   655           
REF      0.63 %   90           
Blank         0.01 %   2      0.01 %   2
Void         0.01 %   1      0.01 %   1
Write-in         0.11 %   16      0.11 %   16
Total Votes   14,239

Wait, what?

[Mr.Phips]

BIG....Dems now have a real shot at taking the NY Senate (thanks to scammer Simcha)

https://www.twitter.com/CapitalTonight/status/989282706600222721

Unfortunately this district is very Republican downballot.  This is Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno's old district.  This district includes all of AD-107, which Dems lost narrowly last night.

[Mr.Phips]

Im fully expecting Dems to lose FL-HD-114.

[Mr.Phips]

Republican is up 52%-45% in FL-HD-114.

[Mr.Phips]

BART STUPAK

Hehe that guy was funny looking.

[Mr.Phips]

Good god.  And Flores only barely made to the runoff too.  Otherwise this would have been two Democrats.

[Mr.Phips]

Based on retirements alone, how many seats can Republicans expect to gain in the Louisiana legislature in 2019?  

Here are the current numbers:

Louisiana House (105 total members)

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 3
vacancies: 3

Louisiana Senate (39 total members)

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

IMHO - relatively few in state Senate. Out of 5 districts, represented by white Democrats (districts represented by Blacks are safe) only 2 look really vulnerable: 28th of LaFleur in Acadiana (very likely) and 38th of Milkovich (with his "nonstandard" voting record - more or less centrist on economy and extremely conservative on social issues). 2 of 3 others are majority-Black, and Gary Smith is strong enough to win.

Much worse in state House. This fall Democrats already lost 10th and 33rd. and next year they are likely to lose heavily in Acadiana and vicinity, where legislators elected in pre-Obama period will be term-limited. By my count - 28th, 30th, 32th, 38th and 54th are, most likely, gone (despite old Democratic tradition), and 18th (not in Acadiana) and 50th - are possible (but both are about 38% Black, so - less likely).

P.S. Louisiana and Mississippi (first - more quickly, as there are term limits) slowly go the way of Alabama (where only 1 centrist white Democrat in state Senate, and 1 white progressive in House (both from majority-Black districts) remain).  Everything else is polarized...

Isn't there a Republican seat that will be open in the Senate (Alario) in the NOLA area that even Hillary almost carried?  I'd think Dems would have a good shot at picking that up.

[Mr.Phips]

Based on retirements alone, how many seats can Republicans expect to gain in the Louisiana legislature in 2019?  

Here are the current numbers:

Louisiana House (105 total members)

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 3
vacancies: 3

Louisiana Senate (39 total members)

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

IMHO - relatively few in state Senate. Out of 5 districts, represented by white Democrats (districts represented by Blacks are safe) only 2 look really vulnerable: 28th of LaFleur in Acadiana (very likely) and 38th of Milkovich (with his "nonstandard" voting record - more or less centrist on economy and extremely conservative on social issues). 2 of 3 others are majority-Black, and Gary Smith is strong enough to win.

Much worse in state House. This fall Democrats already lost 10th and 33rd. and next year they are likely to lose heavily in Acadiana and vicinity, where legislators elected in pre-Obama period will be term-limited. By my count - 28th, 30th, 32th, 38th and 54th are, most likely, gone (despite old Democratic tradition), and 18th (not in Acadiana) and 50th - are possible (but both are about 38% Black, so - less likely).

P.S. Louisiana and Mississippi (first - more quickly, as there are term limits) slowly go the way of Alabama (where only 1 centrist white Democrat in state Senate, and 1 white progressive in House (both from majority-Black districts) remain).  Everything else is polarized...

Isn't there a Republican seat that will be open in the Senate (Alario) in the NOLA area that even Hillary almost carried?  I'd think Dems would have a good shot at picking that up.

There is. And Alario is a party-switcher himself (more or less centrist Democrat in the past, moderate-conservative Republican now). But, barring something unpredictable, that's, probably, the only state Senate seat Democrats may gain. Though it's too early to say with confidence..

What do we know about the three independents and the three current vacancies in the House?  Next year, would they likely go Republican?  Because if so, that would mean Republicans could win up to 75 seats at the end of the 2019 elections once all the votes are counted.  

Terry Brown is a "conservative Independent", who, nevertheless, twice beat Republican candidates. Looking at his voting record - he seems to be more of "conservative populist" type: again, more conservative on social issues, then on economy. Jerome Richard is not so far from "normal Republican", but prefers to stay Indie. He is term-limited though. Both districts (84 and 70% Trump accordingly) seem very unlikely to go Democratic. Joseph Marino - another matter. Elected unopposed from suburban (and - narrow Clinton) district, he seems to be genuine moderate, so IF he would choose - my guess is he would choose Democratic label over Republican one.

Vacansies? One - 18th, i already mentioned. Major Thibaut was among more conservative Democrats, but district is about 38% Black and had rather strong Democratic tradition in the past, so, theoretically it can elect almost anyone: from liberal Democrat to conservative Democrat to (somewhat less likely) conservative Republican (still - 59% Trump). Kenny Havard's 62th leans Republican, but not especially overwhelmingly (58.5% Trump). Jeff Hall's 26th is solidly Democratic and majority Black.

Looking at the 18th, that one even went for Mary Landrieu in 2014.  Dems should be able hold that one.

Also, there are a couple Republican seats in the Baton Rouge area that Trump only won by single digits (or low double digits) that Dems could take.

[Mr.Phips]

whens the PA senate election special?
Thats probably the most important one thats coming up. Its basically a mini version of Conor Lambs current district.

May be a tad more Republican, but yeah, that's a pretty good way to describe it.

[Mr.Phips]

A 17-point swing is nothing to be ashamed of. Good to see that Democrats remain energized.

That, probably, will be a fixture while Trump is a President. It's difficult to imagine better "irritator" for Democrats.

It's sad that it took someone like Trump for Democrats to realize that elections matter.  Of course when he's gone, Dems will likely go back to their lazy, uninformed, uninterested selves that they were during the Obama years.

[Mr.Phips]

It looks like Rs are going to flip two seats tonight.

REPUBLICANS JUST FLIPPED A 60-37 CLINTON SEAT (SD-6) AND IT WASN'T PARTICULARLY CLOSE.

THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG, DEMOCRATS.

Lol do you think any Democrat is actually going to listen or notice?  I went through this already in 2009/2010.  Democrats just don’t care.  They’ll keep coming back with this idiotic “all politics is local” excuse, which has never been the case since at least the mid 1990s.

[Mr.Phips]

It looks like Rs are going to flip two seats tonight.

REPUBLICANS JUST FLIPPED A 60-37 CLINTON SEAT (SD-6) AND IT WASN'T PARTICULARLY CLOSE.

THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG, DEMOCRATS.

Lol do you think any Democrat is actually going to listen or notice?  I went through this already in 2009/2010.  Democrats just don’t care.

Democrats were cleaning house in special elections in that time period though, lol

Uh, if you look at state legislative specials, Dems were getting killed. 

[Mr.Phips]

If Dems don’t pick up the PA state senate seat with a good nominee next month then that would be time to start raising the alarms. There’s been too many mixed results thus far.

I would agree with this.  Dems should be able to pick up that seat in PA.  Dems have a good candidate running against a perennial loser Republican.

[Mr.Phips]

Who do you think wins the KY-SD-31 special? Seat located in Eastern KY went to Trump 80-18 but is Democratic downballot.

Funny thing this area is that John Kerry tied Bush here as recently as 2004.  This is probably one of the biggest swings of anywhere in the country.

[Mr.Phips]

A nice start, but Pike is what really matters

Yes indeed.

[Mr.Phips]

A nice start, but Pike is what really matters

The last time we say the type of margins in Elliott that we are seeing right now at the presidential level was in 2004. Also that year, Kerry won Pike County.

Kerry and Bush basically tied in the district.  Bush won Martin 66%-33%, so Pugh is below where he needs to be in Martin and about where he needs to be in Lawrence.  He needs to win Pike by a decent margin to have any shot.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1103093254428463104

That’s the ballgame.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1103093254428463104

Republican gerrymandering strikes again.

Lol can you draw a Dem district in this part of Kentucky?

[Mr.Phips]

4th blue to red flip this year. Panic time?

Nah, Democrats never notice the headlights until they are flashing in front of their faces.