State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[lfromnj]

Would conor Lamb have lost in the old district?
I think so.

[lfromnj]

whens the PA senate election special?
Thats probably the most important one thats coming up. Its basically a mini version of Conor Lambs current district.

[lfromnj]

whens the PA senate election special?
Thats probably the most important one thats coming up. Its basically a mini version of Conor Lambs current district.

May be a tad more Republican, but yeah, that's a pretty good way to describe it.

it actually matched the statewide margin for wolf and casey this year which was +13 and +17 but PA had a lot of split ticketing.

[lfromnj]

There may be a special election in the 5th senate district of texas. It's a mix of Texas 10th and texas 17th. Pretty republican overall. However I'm keeping at likely r as the Democrat base here is white liberals in austin so they should be fired up unlike low turnout hispanics.

[lfromnj]

There may be a special election in the 5th senate district of texas. It's a mix of Texas 10th and texas 17th. Pretty republican overall. However I'm keeping at likely r as the Democrat base here is white liberals in austin so they should be fired up unlike low turnout hispanics.

Almost 61% Trump. Not impossible, but - difficult target for Democrats.

Yeah only reason dems have a hope in the se is due to the fact it has fired up resistance voters.

[lfromnj]

Damn. It wasn't even close. And that's before tonight's centrist SOTU speech. Trump landslide 2020?

Damn. It wasn't even close. And that's before tonight's centrist SOTU speech. Trump landslide 2020?

This is likely. His approval is following Reagan's and will soon jump up into the high 50s.

How can you guys have such terrible takes? This is the kind of district where you'd expect a bad result given that it's a rapidly Republican trending part of Minnesota. Democrats don't even need to win this seat to win statewide, Ellison lost here by 5 and still won statewide.

I mean id expect a bad result in the GE. But all the statewide D's still won it in 2018 besides Ellison and this is a special election which means Ds should be more energized to vote. This doesn't signify the end of special election turnout for D's but it is in no way a good result

[lfromnj]

whats the odds the CT obama trump district flips?

[lfromnj]

Have the dems made a single gain this year?

[lfromnj]

Looks like the GOP picked up that Obama Trump district too. HD 99 I think.

[lfromnj]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_New_York%27s_26th_congressional_district_special_election

Could we actually being see a temporary pendulum swing back?(No im not LL here) but just talking about a swing back.  Im pretty sure excluding LA dems have underperformed in almost every SE this year.

[lfromnj]

IMO the Minnesota 11b is a tossup. Obama only lost the area by 4 points

[lfromnj]

So far looks close to what the MN senate special is. In the bluer parts of the districts the D's are hitting their benchmarks (Carlton and Elliot) but the more GOP areas are gonna overwhelm the rest of the district. However Pike will decide it.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/VVertuccio/status/1103084432511111169

For a second I read that as 72% R and was like "NO".

I told ya that Elliott can be won back with some good' ol fashioned #Populism

Just drop the identity politics, and grow a flat top haircut, and Appalachia will be yours.

Obama won Elliot twice despite getting obliterated in Appalachia

It was one county out of hundreds and it still swung 20 points from 04.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/VVertuccio/status/1103084432511111169

For a second I read that as 72% R and was like "NO".

I told ya that Elliott can be won back with some good' ol fashioned #Populism

Just drop the identity politics, and grow a flat top haircut, and Appalachia will be yours.

Obama won Elliot twice despite getting obliterated in Appalachia

It was one county out of hundreds and it still swung 20 points from 04.

It held in 2012 too, I dont think a Dem is gonna win it in 2020 but its not impossible

It is impossible.

I think in a Double Digit Dem Victory Elliot would flip.


Up to an 8 point Dem win Elliot will be solidly R but then after that it would begin swing hard and flip Dem around a 12 point Dem victory

And people think IceSpear and I are coming up with straw men when we mock Atlas for having a lot of people that think Trump could lose Elliott County and win Hays County

I could see the latter happening if College turnout is SUPER Low due to a bad D candidate for college students along with VERY restrictive laws on college voting by the Texas GOP.

From what I remember the courts forced the GOP to extend early voting here after they did something illegal. But the county is almost certainly the first Romney Trump D 2020 county and if the D's somehow lose it they are losing in a landslide anyway.

[lfromnj]

While the district was a little winding, it doesn't seem like an egregious gerrymander. Plus, Morgan, Elliot, and Martin all have major prisons, so it could be viewed as the prison guard district.  If it had swung up into Boyd instead of down into Pike it could have had four major prisons (plus the worst county lockup in the country). Maybe redistricting can make that happen.  Since the region can't draw in any other economic development, it becomes one of those places that get packed with state and/or federal prisoners much like WV and SW VA. 

the entire area is a prison.

[lfromnj]

The Democrats can't grow until they start appealing to rural areas again. That means expanding healthcare, supporting labor unions, and expanding Social Security.

Exactly. Stress economic, not social, issues here. Many rural residents are populist enough on economy, but - strongly socially conservative. Candidates must reflect that.

So much #populism here

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/maine-ballot-measure-medicaid-expansion


Barely passed in ME 2nd(mind you this isnt even some super republican district) this is a obama district.

[lfromnj]

Interesting and short twitter thread on PA-114

https://twitter.com/xenocryptsite/status/1105521011674497025

Includes this accounting of 2016 votes showing, erm, discrepancies upballot from the downballot results which are solidly D.

DKE has it as +18 Obama and +8 Trump.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1371575098

[lfromnj]

After the result in PA-LD-114 it's clear that Democrats have regained their special election edge.

Don't draw too many conclusions from one district.  In some places like this they'll do as well or better than last year, in others they won't.

One general observation I've noticed:

Obama -> Trump rural areas have stayed pretty Republican. Minnesota's SD-11 is a good example of this.

Obama -> Trump urban/suburban areas seem to have jumped back, either to 100% Obama levels or a mix of Obama/Clinton areas. Last night's special in Pennsylvania would be a good example of this.

The MN special held ture to this. Carlton county jumped back. The southern farming portion didnt jump back.

[lfromnj]

well looks like Dem's are either gonna lose or lightly win the OC seat even with 6 republicans running a credible D candidate. I guess Trump' gonna win Orange county in 2020. Tossup/Tilt R.

[lfromnj]

The advantage for D's in CA senate 1 is that the district overall has a lot of #resistance white liberals compared to a minority base.

[lfromnj]

Despite the horrible performance of the orange county D's with Loretta Sanchez I think the CA SD 1 will be decent for D's because the D's that are there are much of the #resistance rather than minorities moving in.