State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Brittain33]

Are there any interesting special elections tonight?

There is a safe dem seat in florida, and a potentially competitive one in Iowa.

Florida will be interesting to watch for margins. It was a part of the state where Rick Scott did worse than Trump (margins-wise) in 2014.

The dem candidate is a state rep and the R candidate is just the head of the local party committee, so I expect it to be a landslide.

I just saw on Twitter that the only reason Rs ran a candidate was to prevent Berman from being sworn in early as "uncontested" and participating in government.

[Brittain33]

BTW 5 and 10 are all done. Final margins:

AD5: Smith (R) 2,840 63.06% to Slinkosky (D) 1,658 38.81%

AD10: Stern (D) 5,748 59.12% to Smiteli (R) 3,962 40.82%

That is an incredible differential in turnout! I suppose the Dem didn’t seriously contest AD-5, so the Republican slunk in on Trump-era turnout?

[Brittain33]

Are we sure it's accurate that the independent got 10% of the vote in AD-102? I'm reading on DKE that he's only getting a significant % (27%) in one county. It seems odd.

Makes sense to me in an election like this—he only turns out his neighbors.

[Brittain33]

2 more GOP NY State Senators flee:

Hudson Valley Republican John Bonacic won’t run for re-election to the state Senate.

Sen. John DeFrancisco won’t seek re-election to the state Senate in November, according to his spokeswoman.

Cuomomander is so close to being finished

What are the PVIs of those seats? Are they probable D pickups?

Both are districts that voted for Obama twice but then swung toward Trump so it's possible

Looking at the maps, these both look gerrymandered to keep Democratic voters in other neighboring districts. I guess they both stay R unless the NY Senate is heading toward a massive blue wave.

[Brittain33]

If Clark Mitchell doesn't lose, I will actually not go on Atlas for the seven days from Wednesday 5/16 - Wednesday 5/23. I am very confident that Republicans will flip this seat.

If you mean this, I can ask other moderators to institute a 7-day temporary ban on you at your request. Since you didn't keep the pledge you made last time, I don't think the honor system will work. Let me know.

[Brittain33]

Results really pouring in from Kewaunee County.

[Brittain33]

42nd Assembly District Filling Vacant Seat
36% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
    Jon Plumer (R)   1,677   62%
    Ann Groves Lloyd (D)   993   37%
    Gene Rubinstein (I)   39   1%

http://www.wkow.com/category/250104/election-results

[Brittain33]

Frostman (D) up 1,137 to 1,121 in Kewaunee County with 11 of 14 units in. It went 61% in favor of Trump btw.

Jaques wins Kewaunee County 1760-1664. 51%-49%.

[Brittain33]

Frostman (D) up 1,137 to 1,121 in Kewaunee County with 11 of 14 units in. It went 61% in favor of Trump btw.

Jaques wins Kewaunee County 1760-1664. 51%-49%.

Dallet lost Kewaunee, FWIW, even while winning this district by 7 points. This is looking conservatively promising for Frostman.

[Brittain33]

45% in, Frostman narrows the gap. Trails 48-52%

Where are you getting this?

Kevin Binversie on Twitter

Cut out the middleman

http://fox11online.com/news/election/2018-senate-district-1-special-election

[Brittain33]

SHUT THE FRONT DOOR

[Brittain33]

Candidate
Votes
Percent
Caleb Frostman
11,545
52%
Andre Jacque
10,540
48%
Precincts Reporting: 71 of 93
Percent Reporting: 76%

[Brittain33]

We're all conceding AD42 to the Republican, right?

[Brittain33]

Caleb Frostman
13,528
52%
Andre Jacque
12,481
48%
Precincts Reporting: 84 of 93
Percent Reporting: 90%


This is looking close to over.

[Brittain33]

Jacque just won another precinct with 24 votes to 16 for Frostman. If there were 120 precincts like that outstanding...

[Brittain33]

Total incl. Jacque's Brown dump:


Candidate
Votes
Percent
Caleb Frostman
14,432
52%
Andre Jacque
13,406
48%
Precincts Reporting: 90 of 93
Percent Reporting: 97%

[Brittain33]

Tomorrow - Wisconsin SD-01 and AD-42

My predictions:
Democrats lose SD-01 47-53
Democrats lose AD-42 44-56

[Brittain33]

I may have to change my name again. The Governor Race is now Tilt R, down from Solid...those are some great numbers in the North-Eastern Corner of the state. If they can replicate even half of Obama '08 margins, Wisconsin Dems might have a shot next redistricting.

Hard to see how Walker wins.

[Brittain33]

Who had the bright idea to unban Andrew after like 2 seconds just so he could start up the same schtick for the 47th time? The mods are starting to make Charlie Brown look distrustful and skeptical of Lucy by comparison.

I don't believe LimoLiberal was banned from the Gubernatorial/Statewide board, only the Congressional board.

[Brittain33]

A note on trolling and moderation for a new year of special elections:

There is a healthy tradition on Atlas of people being boastful, even gloating about good election results for them or poor election results for the other team. Moderators tend to tread lightly here and are averse to engaging in fact checking.

There's no bright shining line for trolling, but repeatedly posting dishonest and disingenuous claims that have already been hashed out and disproven in order to get a response or "own" the other party crosses that line.

I haven't tracked all of the results for special elections so far and if LimoLiberal's posts are accurate or not, but so far, it looks like we have too little data to say at this point that he's being disingenuous or dishonest in his claims. If you think a post is trolling, mark it and Virginia or I will review.

[Brittain33]

JAMES BURCHETT - REP42.50%1,494
BARBARA GRIFFIN - DEM4.10%144
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.13%1,516
BARBARA SEIDMAN - DEM10.27%361


Another disappointment for the Democratic party.

Well, 65% White, 25% Black and 7% Hispanic rural Southern district, is, of course, Republican now, but - i still expected better performance from Democratic candidates.

lol at the idea that rural Hispanics in GA are even registered.  

Even 25 is considerably more, then 15.. AFAIK - Blacks vote freely now. It's not 1950's anymore...

True, but if you have two viable campaigns with two Republicans facing off in a Republican district, and two Dem some guys with no campaigns, you're not going to get much turnout at all for the some guys in a special election which most people don't know is happening.

[Brittain33]

What happened to Democrats over-performing in these special elections? Rasmussen has Trump at 50-48, I guess the national environment has shifted.

Rasmussen is known to be a complete outlier on national polling for Trump. They also predicted R+1 in the 2018 special elections. You know that, right?

[Brittain33]

Can’t wait for that PA special so we can determine if the stumble in CT represents local issues/fatigue with Dems in that state or the start of something more widespread.

Didn’t Dems underperform in CT specials before last Election Day and the Dem success on Election Day there was something of a surprise?

[Brittain33]

Can’t wait for that PA special so we can determine if the stumble in CT represents local issues/fatigue with Dems in that state or the start of something more widespread.

Didn’t Dems underperform in CT specials before last Election Day and the Dem success on Election Day there was something of a surprise?

Yes that will be more indicative as well the State Supreme Court election in Wisconsin April 2nd.

And they did underperform in CT and ended up surprising on Election day.

It's really hard to gain any sort of partisan understanding from the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race given that it's non-partisan.

The party affiliations of the candidates are well known though

To those in the know, but not everyone.

Yes, but do those others vote?

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1103100150652829696?s=20

Republicans in Disarray

Time to panic?