State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Badger]

The district went 25% for Clinton. This is a 23% swing to the Democrats.

But Atlas told me FL-Sen was tossup

This is indeed a bad sign for Rick Scott.

9% turn out in a safe dem seat. Doesn’t mean anything

And how many special elections now have we told ourselves that? OH WAIT!! There was almost no D shift or even a small R one in a single GA house race!! And DON"T FORGET OSSOF!!! Clear evidence the other dozens and dozens of special and off year elections spread across the country showing near universal hard shifts to the Dems are all meaningless. Hooray!!

Dude, let's stop whistling past the graveyard. Trump is going to f$%k our party over in November. Horrendously.

[Badger]

So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate?

No...scammer Simcha Felder is registered as D but votes R

Wait a minute. I don't have the link, but I read an article in the last day or two that Felder is expected, after extracting significant concessions from the party of course, to rejoin the Democratic caucus 2 stay in the majority.

It makes sense. I'm guessing he realizes that the IDC is, at least temporarily, crumbling and the chances of Republicans somehow keeping there Ultra fragile majority in the next year or two it is unlikely. Therefore he wants to extract his concessions now when they're worth a lot as opposed to in two years when the Democrats hold a 2 or 3 seat majority even without him.

[Badger]

^called it. He could hardly contain himself for an hour!

Oh Richard, can't you save this for rrh?

[Badger]

Heath getting just 18% of the vote in HD-68, underperforming Clinton's 20% there. Horrific night for Democrats so far.

A-OK Richard! Now get a life and go back to posting on RRH.

[Badger]

Well shoot I was looking forward to a week without Limo

He would've never kept his promise. Just like last week.

[Badger]

Might as well rename this thread "LimoLiberal Andrew trolls users who bother to engage his nonsense megathread v2"

FTFY

[Badger]

Wow. Clark Mitchell (D) in HD-48 ends up losing 44-55 with all precincts in. Just a 3% improvement over Clinton's historically bad performance in this SW PA district.

Helen Tai looks like she'll narrowly pull of the win, but there are still 3 precincts outstanding.

Choke! Choke! Choke! Choke! Choke! Choke!

[Badger]

Yeah Tai is going to win. Tale of Two Pennsylvanias indeed.

Democrats absolutely cannot take control of the state house if they lose ancestrally democratic SW PA seats like these.

Limo Liar Richard 1918. Limo Liar Richard 1918. Limo Liar Liar Limo Sock Sock Sock Sock Sock.

(Hum a jaunty tune to this phrase and it works).

[Badger]

Look at how disgustingly gerrymandered that AD-42 district is. I can't even.

[Badger]

In a special runoff primary election for State Senate District 8 in Fort Smith the candidate backed by Governor Hutchinson won the nomination:

               Rep. Matthew Pitsch            2,069       51%
               Frank Glidewell.                     1,985       49%

In the Primary the vote was

                Frank Glidewell              4,193       39.83
                Matthew Pitsch.            3,641.       34.59
                Denny Altes                    2,693        25.58
 
Altes backed Glidewell in the runoff.  Glidewell opposed and Pitsch supported the Governor’s efforts to extend Medicaid.  The Governor did not support anyone in the primary.

Pitsch will only have Liibertarian oppositiontion.

Good for Pitsch.

[Badger]

66% in:

Vanessa Delgado
(Party Preference: DEM)
20,898   
51.8%
Rita Topalian
(Party Preference: REP)
19,466   
48.2%

Democrats have a thirty point registration advantage in this mostly LA district and they are nearly blowing this race. Not a good sign for November.

Give me a break. The Democratic candidate literally said she probably won't take the seat if elected. This seat is up in three months and will snap back to blowout Democratic margins in November.

#Wulfricanalysis

[Badger]

Who had the bright idea to unban Andrew after like 2 seconds just so he could start up the same schtick for the 47th time? The mods are starting to make Charlie Brown look distrustful and skeptical of Lucy by comparison.

[Badger]

Next moderated post from you Limo and I'm banning you from this board.

(pleaseletithappenpleaseletithappenpleaseletithappenpleaseletithappenpleaselet....)

[Badger]

So apparently Democrats have a chance to eat into the PAGOP's Senate majority a little bit further before 2020:

http://www.wesa.fm/post/special-election-looms-37th-district-attracting-bipartisan-interest

51 - 45% Trump

I suppose the PA Supreme Court is going to overturn the state legislative maps.

One can only pray. And then that they move on the Columbus seven, beat them up and throw them out of their offices, and do the same thing here.

[Badger]

Since nobody posted about these, I may as well post about them. 3 state legislative specials, one in Dec. 2018 and two in 2019. I put in candidates where I am aware of any.

Virginia State House District 24 (Dec 18, 2018)

Candidates: Ronnie Campbell (R) vs. Christian Worth (D)
Location: All of Rockbridge/Bath counties, most of Amherst County, SW Augusta County, independent cities of Lexington/Buena Vista

2017 Governor: 65-34 Gillespie
2016 POTUS: 66-30 Trump

Virginia State Senate District 33 (Jan 8, 2019/incumbent Jennifer Wexton resigned after election to Congress)

Candidates: Jennifer Boysko (D) vs. Joe May (R)
Location: NoVa, 73% Loudoun County/26% Fairfax County (Sterling/Herndon/Reston/Leesburg/etc)

2017 Governor: 67-32 Northam
2016 POTUS: 62-32 Clinton

South Carolina State Senate District 6 (March 26, 2019/incumbent William Timmons resigned after election to Congress)
Candidates: TBD (Primary Jan 22/Runoff Primary Feb 5)
Location: Greenville and suburbs
2016 POTUS: 61.8-31.4 Trump
2012 POTUS: 67.4-30.6 Romney

VA HD-24 is Safe R, VA SD-33 is Safe D, SC SD-06 is Safe R.

Although the Virginia seat appears to be solidly Republican, wouldn't a theoretical Democratic win their flip the house?

[Badger]

Has anyone heard of this?

https://www.twincities.com/2019/01/03/tim-walz-tony-lourey-mn-human-services/

Seat located in Pine and Carlton and went heard for Trump.

What the hell is walz sinking?!? Picking up Democratic senator from me hard Trump swing District which could endanger control of the state senate? When you could have picked literally anyone and everyone under the sun qualified to fill this position?

This is why Democrats lose, and it's not just Republican and Trump voters that fail to respect them.

[Badger]

Has anyone heard of this?

https://www.twincities.com/2019/01/03/tim-walz-tony-lourey-mn-human-services/

Seat located in Pine and Carlton and went heard for Trump.

What the hell is walz sinking?!? Picking up Democratic senator from me hard Trump swing District which could endanger control of the state senate? When you could have picked literally anyone and everyone under the sun qualified to fill this position?

This is why Democrats lose, and it's not just Republican and Trump voters that fail to respect them.

Republicans already control the State Senate

By one damn seat prior to this move. A single resignation/death (sorry to be morbid) or maybe promoting a somewhat fed up Republican from a swing district to the cabinet? Bad move.

[Badger]

Another vacancy in the Maine House of Representatives

Bath’s state rep. announces resignation to take ‘unique career opportunity’ at telecom company

A long-time Bath city councilor died just two days before DeChant's resignation announcement, and his death seems to have become known the same day as DeChant's announcement that she was resigning, so that has "quieted the politics" as one friend told me.  Also, in Maine a vacancy in the State House can't be declared until a municipal governing body in one of the municipalities affected (in this case the Bath City Council) requests that a vacancy be declared, and they may want to time it so the two special elections coincide, but they obviously don't want to make such a declaration on the council vacancy before the deceased's funeral, so it may be a week or two before we know when the special election to replace DeChant will be.

‘A giant in the city’: Bath mourns longtime city councilor, civic icon Bernie Wyman

So asking the inevitable Atlas question, what are the prospects of this seat flipping. The State House seat that is.

[Badger]

Trump won this by 13 points but it’s pretty much solidly Democratic downballot, right? I’ll guess D+9.

Lmao. What happened here?

The Dems winning streak is over. Also, this district isn't really strongly Democratic, Stauber and Wardlow carried it.

I know, but Democrats have won special elections in districts FAR more Republican than this one is, often by a lot.

Yes, but that time period is over now. The pendulum is swinging back to Rs.

On the basis of narrowly lost race for a Minnesota Senate District which Trump won.

Wulfric, you magnificent bastard. Never change.

[Badger]

JAMES BURCHETT - REP42.50%1,494
BARBARA GRIFFIN - DEM4.10%144
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.13%1,516
BARBARA SEIDMAN - DEM10.27%361


Another disappointment for the Democratic party.

[Badger]

Here's some context for you deniers - a Republican has 37% in the Texas seat. Trump got 33% there in 2016, and Cruz probably got like 28%.

Only one takeaway from these special elections: Republicans surging.

Back to the same old shtick, eh?

[Badger]

Based off Lawrence county, looks like another devastating loss for Democrats.

You're absolutely insane if you think narrowly losing a district that was 80-17 Trump in 2016 is a devastating loss for Democrats.

Trump percentages are not everything. This districts had extremely strong Democratic tradition, electing Democrats ONLY for state Senate for almost 50 years before now. Essentially the same - with state House and many local offices. That's why this loss is still a sensitive blow for local Democrats at least. For me - it's neither an achievement, nor source of panic. It's only a sign, that Democratic bleeding in rural areas (especially - in Appalachia) - continues. Let's wait until early April, and state Senate election in suburban Pennsylvania. AFTER that - first preliminary conclusions can be made..

On behalf of all Democrats anywhere, I don’t care about us losing a Trump 80% district. That bled out several years ago.

And still elected Democrats. Until now....

Well, essentially Democrats conduct "ignore rural areas, because they (people, living there) are reactionary and racist". And count on simple fact, that 51% (people, living in suburbs) is substantially more, then 17% (people, living in rural areas). Yes, it's so. The question is - wheter a process of suburbs moving to Democrats, which became especially clear with Trump election, is a long term, or it's caused in large part by Trump's personality? Well to do subirbs never liked too much high taxes on people like them, which are quite possible with continuing "progressivization" of Democratic party...

P.S. (An example) Be prepared to rather big losses in Lousiana's state legislative elections this year with your approach. Democrats still hold substalntial number of heavily Trump districts (at least 1 in state Senate and 3 in state House are above 70% Trump, with one being 88% Trump, in addition to 65+% Trump districts...). While nimber of Republican held district NOT supporting (or barely supporting) Trump is minimal.....

My goodness! These results strong indicate Trump is favored to win Kentucky next year! Democrats are DOOOOOOOMMMMMED!

[Badger]

I’m going to have to manage this thread every damn Tuesday for the next two years, aren’t I.

You can get Limo banned from this board specifically to stop that, maybe

[Badger]

Just comparing the special election results to 2016/2012 in ME/PA:

ME HD-124 went Democratic by 29 points, which is an 10.9% improvement on Clinton and a 7.6% improvement on Obama 2012.

PA HD-114 went Democratic by 24.8 points, which is a 32.5% improvement on Clinton and even a 6.5% improvement on Obama 2012.

Limo liberal and wulfric in disarray!!

[Badger]

Miles, glad you "reappeared" here. Big thanks for your maps! It became my habit to look regularily at Decision Desk Twitter. One question: you have excellent knowledge of Southern politics. We discussed Mississippi in details recently. But what about Louisiana legislative elections? Term limits will cause very big turnover there, as lot of people, elected in 2007 (first time, when term limits were applied) are term-limited himself. Especially problematic, IMHO, is situation with few remaining white Democrats. If i am not mistaken - only 3 of them (Brown, Carter and White) may run for reelection, and chances of electing new ones in their seats, are,  usually, not good (many retiring white legislators come from 65-85% Trump districts). Your expertise would be very useful here...

It's been a while my friend! I've still been lurking around and uploading old races to the database here, but I'll likely post a bit more as Louisiana gets closer. Lots of interesting stuff happening in the legislature.

Miles has been contracted to make maps for Cook Political and Sabato before. Until anyone of us reaches that level, we do not have the right to decide what he makes and what he doesn't - unless he asks for input.

Thanks! It was great to work with them. Funny thing is they asked me for a lot of Presidential maps to help handicap downballot races. But now, I'm being told Presidential numbers are irrelevant

You really don't have any idea of the amount and quality of the work Miles has consistently created and published, do you?

I'm surprised Miles even acknowledged the existence of this insignificant right-wing troll.
He must have had a slow day at the office.

Yeah, sometimes you just have to go for it on these slow days! The vast majority of you guys are awesome and I'm happy to put out the content, but always inevitably a few who just want to complain.

There was an special legislative election in Alabama last year. My map compared it to the 2017 Senate result. Jones' performance was/is obviously about the ceiling for Democrats there, so of course they underperformed him. Had a guy saying I should have compared to 2016 President instead. Can't win sometimes!

In any case, looking forward to mapping more of these special elections this year!

Keep going Miles. You and Lunar are making this forum proud.