State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Gass3268]

This is fun:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/983910196983599104

[Gass3268]

Obama lost this district by 5 against McCain, while winning the state overall by 9 points. Its a very Republican district.

[Gass3268]

Yep. Republican leading 55-45 in Erie County AD-142 with 50% reporting. R Flip incoming here.

https://www.erieelectionresults.com/nys.aspx

Y'all didn't believe me when I made my writeup.

AD-142 was more like a democratic primary in the general election IIRC, tho

Is this the district with one Dem on the GOP line and one on the Dem line?

Yeah but the one on the R line is a DINO who is handpicked by Paladino and plans to caucus with republicans

Uh, where did you hear that? That's completely wrong. The conservadem has promised to caucus with the Democrats (it would be stupid to do otherwise. Democrats have the majority now that the IDC has at least temporarily desolved.)

Yeah, I'm reading that he'll caucus with the Dems too.

[Gass3268]

This would be quite the upset if the Dem wins 102, even Romney won the seat by 6 points.

[Gass3268]

Something to note of course is that if 102 is this close, then Similar yet more dem friendly 107 is probably a D flip once we get more numbers.

102 is also in NY-19...

[Gass3268]

Just read that the NYGOP has held AD-10 since 1978. Good to see the up-ballot Democratic strength trickle down.

[Gass3268]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

The GOP held 4 of these seats coming into tonight. Tonight, they've won ADs 5, 17, and 107. 102 and 142 are uncalled but they lead in both. That's 5, one more than 4, if they sweep.

They held AD-10 before tonight and lost that.

They've held AD-10 since 1978.

[Gass3268]

Are we sure it's accurate that the independent got 10% of the vote in AD-102? I'm reading on DKE that he's only getting a significant % (27%) in one county. It seems odd.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/991457134712971265

[Gass3268]

If Vargas doesn't win, I'll quit Atlas for a week. He's going to win. Not concern-trolling, but Fernandez can't make that deficit up.

And, no, the blue wave is still on. This is just Cuban Republicans being Cuban Republicans.

Finally, why does Osceola only have 4% turnout? Is that a typo?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

[Gass3268]

As of now, Fernandez outperformed every Democrat in recent history here, except Clinton and Nelson.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/991464913469100039

[Gass3268]

We have final results in the non-competitive seat now:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Josie Tomkow   
REP   9,891   
59.88%
Ricky Shirah   
DEM   6,628   
40.12%
Total    16,519

Better than the 2016 result for the state legislature there, at least.

Only a very minor swing to the GOP from the Pres race too:

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/991465462100873221

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/991465447810916353

[Gass3268]

[Gass3268]

[Gass3268]

So, predictions on how much time it takes Twitter Republicans to declare the start of a Republican wave when they win TX HD-13?

5 minutes? 10?

Lol they claimed a Red Wave was coming when they lost PA18 by “only” 700 votes

I mean Ana Navarro started squealing about the "blue wave" when democrats won by 3% in a seat Clinton won by 20%

Unrelatable, and I do not recall such a race.

HD-114 it was literally this Tuesday and you were posting about it

Clinton did not win HD114 by 20 points.

Also it's still a big deal the Democrats won a seat that Cuban in a down ballot race.

[Gass3268]

Ok so tomorrow we got special elections in PA. According to Morris, PA178 is R+7  and PA48 is R+15. I'll admit that I'm a little nervous about tomorrow. I'm praying that we win 178 and come close in 48, lest we go through another slew of "BLUE WAVE IS DEAD" headlines

Indeed, how could Dems possibly defeat Barbara Comstock and Dean Heller if they can't even win R+15 districts?

Well what do you think is going to happen? If we win this district, then it's safe to say the Democrats are repairing their standing with the working class.

I'm guessing Lamb won this seat? Most of his best precincts from Washington County appear to be in this district.

[Gass3268]

Miles with the map:

[Gass3268]

Wow massive improvement for the Democrats vs Clinton in PA-48!

[Gass3268]

Wow massive improvement for the Democrats vs Clinton in PA-48!

5% improvement is impressive now? Clinton lost the district by 14, Mitchell is losing it by 9.

Massive!

[Gass3268]

Wait, there was no party label on the special elections in PA?

That's what the Washington County elections site is telling me.

[Gass3268]

Limo was never going to leave for a week anyway. He didn't last time he said he would.

Limo Liar!

[Gass3268]

16/28

Democrat   
Helen Tai   3,809   
52.0%

Republican   
Wendi Thomas   3,509   
48.0%

[Gass3268]

Heath getting just 18% of the vote in HD-68, underperforming Clinton's 20% there. Horrific night for Democrats so far.

A-OK Richard! Now get a life and go back to posting on RRH.

This ended up being a 0.44 Dem improvement from 2016.