State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[smoltchanov]

Democratic Massachusetts house rep Jim Miceli for the 19th middlesex district passsed away today at a public event.

http://www.wcvb.com/article/state-rep-jim-miceli-dies-after-collapsing-at-massachusetts-event/19880530

Interesting. By Massachussetts standards at least this is a "conservative" district, and Miceli was rather socially conservative (though - pro-labor) Democrat. Special (if it will be held), and general election here may be interesting.

[smoltchanov]

So, both parties have reasons to be satisfied to some (but - not full) extent. Democrats held an important state Senate seat, and flipped relatively "low-hanging fruit" in AD10, but got a stern reminder in AD142: even in the North-East a "progressive" isn't always the best candidate (AFAIK - Buffalo area is full of "old school" Democrats: pro-labor, pro-gun and pro-life, for example). Republicans formally flipped AD142, and narrowly escaped defeats in 2 other districts, a sort of achievement in present environment..

[smoltchanov]

So, both parties have reasons to be satisfied to some (but - not full) extent. Democrats held an important state Senate seat, and flipped relatively "low-hanging fruit" in AD10, but got a stern reminder in AD142: even in the North-East a "progressive" isn't always the best candidate (AFAIK - Buffalo area is full of "old school" Democrats: pro-labor, pro-gun and pro-life, for example). Republicans formally flipped AD142, and narrowly escaped defeats in 2 other districts, a sort of achievement in present environment..

Well the new Assemblyman from district 142 is a union-backed registered Democrat who plans to caucus with the Democrats. I wouldn’t really call that a flipped seat

Thanks. I know that (that's why i used "formally"). But -  simply wanted to stress, that in different districts you need different types of candidates for victory. The obvious thing, that's too frequently forgotten...

[smoltchanov]

So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate?

No...scammer Simcha Felder is registered as D but votes R

Wait a minute. I don't have the link, but I read an article in the last day or two that Felder is expected, after extracting significant concessions from the party of course, to rejoin the Democratic caucus 2 stay in the majority.

It makes sense. I'm guessing he realizes that the IDC is, at least temporarily, crumbling and the chances of Republicans somehow keeping there Ultra fragile majority in the next year or two it is unlikely. Therefore he wants to extract his concessions now when they're worth a lot as opposed to in two years when the Democrats hold a 2 or 3 seat majority even without him.

Quite possible. That's how politics is usually conducted in New York....

[smoltchanov]

SPECIAL ELECTION ALERT: TX 13th State House election today. Republican incumbent resigned to take a lobbying job at Blinn.
The Republican candidates are Ben Leman and Jill Wolfskill and the Democratic candidate is Cecil Webster.
Should be a Republican hold.

79% Trump. Very likely - yes.

[smoltchanov]

In Oregon Democratic Primaries, Progressive Democrats notched up some key wins in State House and Senate Primary races, that could have a potential impact this November when it comes to a potential Democratic Party Super Majority within the State Legislature....

These gains occurred in a wide geographic and politically diverse and competitive parts of Oregon, so will be interesting to watch how this plays out in the November GE.

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/05/liberal_democrats_primary_wins.html#incart_river_index

Haven't had much time to look at the results between getting off work late and some PC issues, but this is obviously a major development on a larger Statewide Political scale....

Interesting. But good primary candidates are not always good GE candidates, with substantially different electorate. Some of these progressives will, undoubtely win, but some - may lose to more conservative GE opponents.

[smoltchanov]

In short - legislator represents his voters first, and his party - second. So, i am absolutely fine with any sort of mavericks in ALL parties - relatively conservative Democrats and relatively liberal Republicans included. My only complaint: there are too few of them (and way too much "loyal foot soldiers") everywhere... American politics became utterly boring as a result.

[smoltchanov]

A political party is perfectly fine to expel members who act against the interests of the wider party - the point of a political party is meant to be a machine to elect people who have broadly similar aims and goals.  Since Felder is sitting with the other party in the State Senate then the Democrats have a right to expel him since, as far as I am concerned, that is breaking rule number 1 of being a member of a political party.  He can still run as an Independent or as a Republican or whatever: it means that in the General Elections voters will actually have the opportunity to vote for a real alternative and that's a positive thing.

Felder has every right to be a Democrat, period. We have free agency in this country.

free agency also allows a group to remove people who they feel act contrary to the aims of said group.  I don't know about how but sitting with the opposing political party when your party has a majority strikes me as meeting that definition.

IIRC - U.S. political parties were never built on strict ideological basis (unlike most of European ones, operating under multy-party, and, in most cases, parlamentary system). On the contrary - "big tent" (ideological diversity WITHIN both major parties) was proclaimed to be one of the main principles of party organization in US. If now they are built around ideology  - better change country's political  system to 10-party parlamentary, and then expel anybody, who differs from any party's "official dogma" (after all - there will be 9 other). But it will not be the US i knew... A system with only 2 ideologized parties leaves too many people utterly unrepresented.

P.S. In  fact - your words about "free agency....." almost literally describe Leninist approach to party building. It was widely used in Russia and Soviet Union. Do you want to follow that same path??? I live in Russia, and relations between our countries are tense now, but i don't want the same fate for US.

[smoltchanov]

It’s not good riddance Felder will have the same position he always has had come next year lol just Dems guaranteed their majority will be one seat smaller with this stunt

It won't make it smaller since Felder caucuses with the GOP anyway.

No, when Dems pick up the senate in November he would’ve switched. It does make it smaller.

And no, he isn’t going to lose lol. I don’t think you know what a hot take is OneJ

So the Democrats lost the support of a craven opportunist with no principles other that personal and political profit. Devastating loss indeed.

Most politicians fit your description....

[smoltchanov]

Bagel is morphing into LL's sidekick.

There's a reason Lear, hofoid, and now Bagel adopted the concern trolling strategy. It gets you the most bang for your buck in terms of effectiveness and getting attention for yourself, with the added bonus that the mods have made clear you can do it with impunity. Definitely the best market to invest in if you want to be a long term troll, as opposed to the more risky "be an outright Nazi" market, which may yield short term fortunes but with a grim longterm prognosis.

One must define first what the trolling is in this situation. For example: i am reasonably sure, that this year will be good for Democrats on all levels, except Senate, where cards are stacked heavily against them. The question is - how good? Do i think, that Democrats will win House in November? Not yet: gun to my head  (today) i would say that Republicans would narrowly hold it (about 219-216). But elections are not today, and i will not make forecast until 1 month before election. Is it "trolling"? I don't think so. IMHO - it's a honest cautious opinion.

[smoltchanov]

If Flores actually wins, then it means that Russians hacked the election totals to rig the results. No other rational explanation exists.

[snark]Of course - we did. We are SO interested in Texas state Senate race......[/snark]

[smoltchanov]

If Flores actually wins, then it means that Russians hacked the election totals to rig the results. No other rational explanation exists.

Lol. Mother Russia was looking out for us tonight.

Mother always cares about her stupid children)))

[smoltchanov]

When Flores ran for this seat in 2016 and lost he received almost FOUR TIMES as many votes as he did tonight.

That's how bad turnout was.

Well, if people don't care about who represents them - what can you do? Only - accept their choice. It will be interesting, BTW, to see how Flores votes in the state Senate: whether he will be closer to "ideologues" or "pragmatists"...

[smoltchanov]

As has already been alluded to by multiple posters, this wasn't particularly surprising. Areas where minorities - and in particular, low-propensity blocs such as young people, Latinos and Asians - disproportionately underperform in special elections. This is just like when the Republicans won a State Senate seat in GA by 2 points in 2015 that voted for Obama both times by 50 points. The GOP incumbent lost by 51 points in 2016.

I don't know the specifics of this district (yet), but if it's the slightest amount majority-Democratic in normal elections, it'll likely flip back in November.

Type	State	Dist	Date	Runoff	'16 Mar	'16 P Mar	Special Mar	Swing (Avg)
Senate	TX	19	9/18/18		D+15	D+12	R+6	R+20

IIUC - Flores is now state Senator until November 2020.

[smoltchanov]

Based on retirements alone, how many seats can Republicans expect to gain in the Louisiana legislature in 2019?  

Here are the current numbers:

Louisiana House (105 total members)

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 3
vacancies: 3

Louisiana Senate (39 total members)

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

IMHO - relatively few in state Senate. Out of 5 districts, represented by white Democrats (districts represented by Blacks are safe) only 2 look really vulnerable: 28th of LaFleur in Acadiana (very likely) and 38th of Milkovich (with his "nonstandard" voting record - more or less centrist on economy and extremely conservative on social issues). 2 of 3 others are majority-Black, and Gary Smith is strong enough to win.

Much worse in state House. This fall Democrats already lost 10th and 33rd. and next year they are likely to lose heavily in Acadiana and vicinity, where legislators elected in pre-Obama period will be term-limited. By my count - 28th, 30th, 32th, 38th and 54th are, most likely, gone (despite old Democratic tradition), and 18th (not in Acadiana) and 50th - are possible (but both are about 38% Black, so - less likely).

P.S. Louisiana and Mississippi (first - more quickly, as there are term limits) slowly go the way of Alabama (where only 1 centrist white Democrat in state Senate, and 1 white progressive in House (both from majority-Black districts) remain).  Everything else is polarized...

[smoltchanov]

Based on retirements alone, how many seats can Republicans expect to gain in the Louisiana legislature in 2019?  

Here are the current numbers:

Louisiana House (105 total members)

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 3
vacancies: 3

Louisiana Senate (39 total members)

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

IMHO - relatively few in state Senate. Out of 5 districts, represented by white Democrats (districts represented by Blacks are safe) only 2 look really vulnerable: 28th of LaFleur in Acadiana (very likely) and 38th of Milkovich (with his "nonstandard" voting record - more or less centrist on economy and extremely conservative on social issues). 2 of 3 others are majority-Black, and Gary Smith is strong enough to win.

Much worse in state House. This fall Democrats already lost 10th and 33rd. and next year they are likely to lose heavily in Acadiana and vicinity, where legislators elected in pre-Obama period will be term-limited. By my count - 28th, 30th, 32th, 38th and 54th are, most likely, gone (despite old Democratic tradition), and 18th (not in Acadiana) and 50th - are possible (but both are about 38% Black, so - less likely).

P.S. Louisiana and Mississippi (first - more quickly, as there are term limits) slowly go the way of Alabama (where only 1 centrist white Democrat in state Senate, and 1 white progressive in House (both from majority-Black districts) remain).  Everything else is polarized...

Isn't there a Republican seat that will be open in the Senate (Alario) in the NOLA area that even Hillary almost carried?  I'd think Dems would have a good shot at picking that up.

There is. And Alario is a party-switcher himself (more or less centrist Democrat in the past, moderate-conservative Republican now). But, barring something unpredictable, that's, probably, the only state Senate seat Democrats may gain. Though it's too early to say with confidence..

[smoltchanov]

Based on retirements alone, how many seats can Republicans expect to gain in the Louisiana legislature in 2019?  

Here are the current numbers:

Louisiana House (105 total members)

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 3
vacancies: 3

Louisiana Senate (39 total members)

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

IMHO - relatively few in state Senate. Out of 5 districts, represented by white Democrats (districts represented by Blacks are safe) only 2 look really vulnerable: 28th of LaFleur in Acadiana (very likely) and 38th of Milkovich (with his "nonstandard" voting record - more or less centrist on economy and extremely conservative on social issues). 2 of 3 others are majority-Black, and Gary Smith is strong enough to win.

Much worse in state House. This fall Democrats already lost 10th and 33rd. and next year they are likely to lose heavily in Acadiana and vicinity, where legislators elected in pre-Obama period will be term-limited. By my count - 28th, 30th, 32th, 38th and 54th are, most likely, gone (despite old Democratic tradition), and 18th (not in Acadiana) and 50th - are possible (but both are about 38% Black, so - less likely).

P.S. Louisiana and Mississippi (first - more quickly, as there are term limits) slowly go the way of Alabama (where only 1 centrist white Democrat in state Senate, and 1 white progressive in House (both from majority-Black districts) remain).  Everything else is polarized...

Isn't there a Republican seat that will be open in the Senate (Alario) in the NOLA area that even Hillary almost carried?  I'd think Dems would have a good shot at picking that up.

There is. And Alario is a party-switcher himself (more or less centrist Democrat in the past, moderate-conservative Republican now). But, barring something unpredictable, that's, probably, the only state Senate seat Democrats may gain. Though it's too early to say with confidence..

What do we know about the three independents and the three current vacancies in the House?  Next year, would they likely go Republican?  Because if so, that would mean Republicans could win up to 75 seats at the end of the 2019 elections once all the votes are counted.  

Terry Brown is a "conservative Independent", who, nevertheless, twice beat Republican candidates. Looking at his voting record - he seems to be more of "conservative populist" type: again, more conservative on social issues, then on economy. Jerome Richard is not so far from "normal Republican", but prefers to stay Indie. He is term-limited though. Both districts (84 and 70% Trump accordingly) seem very unlikely to go Democratic. Joseph Marino - another matter. Elected unopposed from suburban (and - narrow Clinton) district, he seems to be genuine moderate, so IF he would choose - my guess is he would choose Democratic label over Republican one.

Vacansies? One - 18th, i already mentioned. Major Thibaut was among more conservative Democrats, but district is about 38% Black and had rather strong Democratic tradition in the past, so, theoretically it can elect almost anyone: from liberal Democrat to conservative Democrat to (somewhat less likely) conservative Republican (still - 59% Trump). Kenny Havard's 62th leans Republican, but not especially overwhelmingly (58.5% Trump). Jeff Hall's 26th is solidly Democratic and majority Black.

[smoltchanov]

Based on retirements alone, how many seats can Republicans expect to gain in the Louisiana legislature in 2019?  

Here are the current numbers:

Louisiana House (105 total members)

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 3
vacancies: 3

Louisiana Senate (39 total members)

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

IMHO - relatively few in state Senate. Out of 5 districts, represented by white Democrats (districts represented by Blacks are safe) only 2 look really vulnerable: 28th of LaFleur in Acadiana (very likely) and 38th of Milkovich (with his "nonstandard" voting record - more or less centrist on economy and extremely conservative on social issues). 2 of 3 others are majority-Black, and Gary Smith is strong enough to win.

Much worse in state House. This fall Democrats already lost 10th and 33rd. and next year they are likely to lose heavily in Acadiana and vicinity, where legislators elected in pre-Obama period will be term-limited. By my count - 28th, 30th, 32th, 38th and 54th are, most likely, gone (despite old Democratic tradition), and 18th (not in Acadiana) and 50th - are possible (but both are about 38% Black, so - less likely).

P.S. Louisiana and Mississippi (first - more quickly, as there are term limits) slowly go the way of Alabama (where only 1 centrist white Democrat in state Senate, and 1 white progressive in House (both from majority-Black districts) remain).  Everything else is polarized...

Isn't there a Republican seat that will be open in the Senate (Alario) in the NOLA area that even Hillary almost carried?  I'd think Dems would have a good shot at picking that up.

There is. And Alario is a party-switcher himself (more or less centrist Democrat in the past, moderate-conservative Republican now). But, barring something unpredictable, that's, probably, the only state Senate seat Democrats may gain. Though it's too early to say with confidence..

What do we know about the three independents and the three current vacancies in the House?  Next year, would they likely go Republican?  Because if so, that would mean Republicans could win up to 75 seats at the end of the 2019 elections once all the votes are counted.  

Terry Brown is a "conservative Independent", who, nevertheless, twice beat Republican candidates. Looking at his voting record - he seems to be more of "conservative populist" type: again, more conservative on social issues, then on economy. Jerome Richard is not so far from "normal Republican", but prefers to stay Indie. He is term-limited though. Both districts (84 and 70% Trump accordingly) seem very unlikely to go Democratic. Joseph Marino - another matter. Elected unopposed from suburban (and - narrow Clinton) district, he seems to be genuine moderate, so IF he would choose - my guess is he would choose Democratic label over Republican one.

That's two districts also likely to go Republican, then.  

With the independents accounted for, how about the three vacant seats?  They seem to have been represented mainly by Democrats.    

Look up. I added info to my previous post.

[smoltchanov]

So in January 2020 once the legislators have been sworn in, do you think this is likely going to be the partisan makeup of the Louisiana legislature, with Republicans having a 2 to 1 majority ratio in both chambers?


Louisiana House

Republicans: 70
Democrats: 35


Louisiana Senate

Republicans: 26
Democrats: 13

I would expect House being about 68-37 or 67-38 Republican (numbers may be smaller if Indies are present), and Senate - either 26-13 or 25-14  (27-12 in absolutely worst case) in their favor. Yeah, 18th has rather strong Democratic tradition, but with conservative slant. It will not elect a "bold progressive"... Before Thibaut it elected Donald Cazayoux, who was slightly more liberal, but - no more then centrist in general.

P.S. And yes - there are some districts, held now by Republicans, where Democrats may have rather good chances in 2019. In NOLA area - it's almost surely 92th, probably - 105th, and may be - 103rd and 94th. In BR area - may be 68th and 70th, but Republicans will still be likely favored there. As usual - nothing in rural areas, where Democrats are almost annihilated.

[smoltchanov]

After looking at state legislative results i have a sort of observation and question simultaneously. Generally, it seems, state legislative elections followed House pattern: Democrats held cities, gained (sometimes - massively) in suburbs, and lost in rural areas. Overall results vary from state to state: if in Pennsylvania, Washington, Michigan, and even Georgia, Texas and North Carolina (and some other states) suburban gains were very impressive, and were main part of "Democratic improvement", in some other - situation is more mixed. I already mentioned Kansas: quantitatively elections to it's House were almost a"wash" (IIRC - Democrats lost 1 seat), but it became tangibly more conservative, as almost all Democratic gains were in suburbs at the expense of very moderate Republicans (Gallagher and Rooker were, probably, more liberal, then some Democrats), while losses - almost exclusively in rural areas to very conservative Republicans. In Oklahoma and Arkansas some gains in suburbs only compensated rural losses, but - no more. And  the worst state (from Democratic point of view) was, probably, Alabama - no change in state Senate and loss of 4-5 rural seats without any compensation in suburbs (it's, probably, the first time in Alabama's history, when whole Democratic caucus consists of centrists and liberals, without single conservative, and, as i said in another thread - it's almost completely Black, substantially more so, then even in Mississippi and Louisiana). Thoughts, explanations?

P.S. Strictly speaking - this post is not about SPECIAL elections, though it's about state legislative elections. If moderators want, and know more suitable thread for it - move it, please..

[smoltchanov]

Schedule for the rest of the year:

November 27 - Mississippi Runoffs (House 31 & 85)
December 4 - GA HD 28 (R v. R) and SOS
December 8 - LA HD 90 (R v. R) and SOS
December 11 - TX SD 6
December 18 - VA HD 24

The MS house races tomorrow should be Safe D. District 31 is 73% black, and District 85 is 67% black.

Given that TX SD 6 was almost 74% Clinton, and VA HD 24 - almost 68% Trump in 2016 - nothing interesting, except GA SOS race (LA's will easily go Republican)

[smoltchanov]

The CA Sen-1 Clown car continues to fill up. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley of the 6th District is running and incumbent Ted Gaines’ wife, Beth (also Kiley’s predecessor) is thought to be planning a run.

Source: The Sacramento Bee

That brings it up to 3 confirmed Republicans, with a 4th likely to announce soon. No Democrats have announced; it’s a very Republican district.

Party Affiliations: 41% R, 28.5% D, 22.5% NPP

If I had to pick a Republican to win, I’d vote for Kiley so that my assembly district gets a special election.

Isn't Kiley's district Republican too?

[smoltchanov]

The CA Sen-1 Clown car continues to fill up. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley of the 6th District is running and incumbent Ted Gaines’ wife, Beth (also Kiley’s predecessor) is thought to be planning a run.

Source: The Sacramento Bee

That brings it up to 3 confirmed Republicans, with a 4th likely to announce soon. No Democrats have announced; it’s a very Republican district.

Party Affiliations: 41% R, 28.5% D, 22.5% NPP

If I had to pick a Republican to win, I’d vote for Kiley so that my assembly district gets a special election.

Isn't Kiley's district Republican too?

Yeah, Kiley won something like 58-42 or so this year.

So, you will simply get another Republican in Assembly...

[smoltchanov]

A 17-point swing is nothing to be ashamed of. Good to see that Democrats remain energized.

That, probably, will be a fixture while Trump is a President. It's difficult to imagine better "irritator" for Democrats.

[smoltchanov]

There may be a special election in the 5th senate district of texas. It's a mix of Texas 10th and texas 17th. Pretty republican overall. However I'm keeping at likely r as the Democrat base here is white liberals in austin so they should be fired up unlike low turnout hispanics.

Almost 61% Trump. Not impossible, but - difficult target for Democrats.