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Author Topic: NJ-Gov 2005.  (Read 20400 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« Reply #150 on: November 06, 2005, 01:54:19 AM »

How dare Corzine actually fight back instead of taking the high road and losing like Kerry?

The only thing that can hurt Corzine right now is low turnout.  By escalating the ruckus, that's exactly what may happen. (and what I'm sure Forrester has in mind)
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #151 on: November 06, 2005, 10:26:36 AM »

Monmouth University/Gannett Poll:

NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR
Corzine 47%
Forrester 38%
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nickshepDEM
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #152 on: November 06, 2005, 10:30:47 AM »

Congressman Rob Andrews has a poll conducted by Bill Clinton's pollster, Stanley Greenberg, that says Jon Corzine leads Doug Forrester by twelve points, 48%-36%.

Date: November 5, 2005

To: Congressman Rob Andrews

From: Stan Greenberg and Al Quinlan
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research

RE: STATUS OF CONTEST FOR GOVERNOR


Jon Corzine maintains a healthy lead over Doug Forrester going into the final weekend of the campaign for Governor. A statewide survey conducted November 2-3 of 600 likely voters indicates Forrester's standing is particularly weak and Corzine maintains advantages in both personal standing and electoral support.

Corzine leads Forrester 48 to 36 percent in a survey in which half of the interviews were conducted Thursday evening after the most recent ads aired. Interviews conducted that evening indicated no significant shift in the race.

Corzine maintains a solid hold on his base of Democrats and leads Forrester among independents.

Forrester’s standing is particularly weak, and his negatives outweigh his positives by 10 percentage points. Corzine, on the other hand, has higher positives than negatives.

This survey of 600 likely statewide voters has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percent.


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WalterMitty
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« Reply #153 on: November 06, 2005, 10:45:57 AM »

how could more new jerseyians view corzine favorably than negatively?

i think it is obvious the man is a sleazebag.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #154 on: November 06, 2005, 11:26:30 AM »

"Lower drinking age to 18 - Corzine says that if it's good enough to fight in the army, it's good enough for drinking"

Note to Jon Corzine: NEW JERSEY TRIED THAT BEFORE!

Yeah and it was a disaster. Great idea, Jon.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #155 on: November 06, 2005, 12:46:16 PM »

Ed Gillespie just said on CNN that Forrester's going to win.  idiot
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
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« Reply #156 on: November 06, 2005, 12:48:50 PM »

Ed Gillespie just said on CNN that Forrester's going to win.  idiot

What is he supposed to say?

"Forrester is going to lose big man, its going to be a disaster, might as well stop volunteering or donating money because there is no hope for success"

?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #157 on: November 06, 2005, 12:50:50 PM »

Ed Gillespie just said on CNN that Forrester's going to win.  idiot

What is he supposed to say?

"Forrester is going to lose big man, its going to be a disaster, might as well stop volunteering or donating money because there is no hope for success"

?

"I don't know, it's going to be down to the wire.  Keep fighting, NJ freedom fighters"
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #158 on: November 06, 2005, 12:55:23 PM »

Ed Gillespie just said on CNN that Forrester's going to win.  idiot

What is he supposed to say?

"Forrester is going to lose big man, its going to be a disaster, might as well stop volunteering or donating money because there is no hope for success"

?

"I don't know, it's going to be down to the wire.  Keep fighting, NJ freedom fighters"

Maintaining confidence in the face of overwhelming odds is a hallmark of strong leadership.
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
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« Reply #159 on: November 06, 2005, 12:57:10 PM »

Maintaining confidence in the face of overwhelming odds is a hallmark of strong leadership.

But when a Democrat does he it he/she is "delusional".
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
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« Reply #160 on: November 06, 2005, 12:59:14 PM »

Maintaining confidence in the face of overwhelming odds is a hallmark of strong leadership.

But when a Democrat does he it he/she is "delusional".

Democrats are delusional anyway. Smiley
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
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« Reply #161 on: November 06, 2005, 01:06:17 PM »

On that subject, I actually learned a lesson about political delusion back in September.

I was helping the Republican nominee in a special State Senate race in the most Democratic district in Tennessee.  We were running against the powerful Ford machine in their home area.  It is heavily African-American.  Bush only got 19% of the vote in the district.

Nobody thought we would even get above 30% of the vote with a perfect campaign, let alone come close to victory.

We only fell short of victory by 13 votes out of 9,000 cast and are challenging the result as we speak.  We won tons of precincts that Kerry won in '04, won one majority-black precinct, and got over 15% in many 95%+ black precincts.

Only one man maintained full confidence in victory, despite the overwhelming odds - and that was the candidate himself.
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Jake
dubya2004
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« Reply #162 on: November 06, 2005, 01:08:30 PM »

How'd you committ that much voter fraud? I seriously must give you credit for that.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
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« Reply #163 on: November 06, 2005, 01:11:50 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2005, 01:20:46 PM by HumanRights® (htmldon) »

How'd you committ that much voter fraud? I seriously must give you credit for that.

No fraud was committed on the Republican side.  We had an excellent GOTV campaign that was running against the worst possible Democrat candidate, coming out of a deeply divided primary.

We believe that there was fraud committed on the Democrat side as there were convicted felons who were found to have voted in precincts that she won.

Most of our precincts had above 20% turnout.  Precincts that went for Ophelia Ford (D) barely had 3-4% turnout.

Come to think of it, I should probably post some maps from that race. Smiley
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #164 on: November 06, 2005, 05:21:14 PM »

Maintaining confidence in the face of overwhelming odds is a hallmark of strong leadership.

But when a Democrat does he it he/she is "delusional".

Semi-realistic - Forrester winning.
Delusional - Kyl only winning by 10%.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #165 on: November 06, 2005, 05:47:04 PM »

Re-interview of likely voters shows Corzine at 48% compared to Forrester's 44%.

http://politics.nexcess.net/polls/
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #166 on: November 06, 2005, 06:25:50 PM »

Semi-realistic - Forrester winning.
Delusional - Kyl only winning by 10%.

Switch those around and you'll have it right.
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #167 on: November 07, 2005, 09:56:23 AM »

From the Star Ledger 11/7/05:

Sharp, public criticism of Democrat Jon Corzine by his ex-wife has pushed independent voters toward Republican Doug Forrester, but Corzine retains a six percentage point lead in the closing days of the caustic campaign for governor, a Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers Poll shows.

Corzine leads Forrester 43 percent to 37 percent among likely voters, according to the poll. About 9 percent of those surveyed remain undecided. Corzine held a seven-point lead in an October poll.

"There appears to be a trend toward Forrester," poll director Murray Edelman said, "but I don't see this being a strong enough trajectory for him to win."


      
                    
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AuH2O
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« Reply #168 on: November 07, 2005, 11:26:58 AM »

I think its clear Forrester has momentum. In a low-turnout race, which this surely will be, that does open the possibility of a shock upset. Forrester doesn't really need people to suddenly become Republicans, he just needs center-left types to stay home in substantial numbers.

That said, if the polls are right Corzine will win, because there isn't time but for so much movement. I think the polls may not be right for structural reasons, but how significant a difference that constitutes is unclear (if real).
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BRTD
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« Reply #169 on: November 07, 2005, 11:49:07 AM »

Tradesports is giving a 94.5% chance of a Corzine win.
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
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« Reply #170 on: November 07, 2005, 11:50:50 AM »

Tradesports is giving a 94.5% chance of a Corzine win.

What about Kilgore?
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nickshepDEM
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #171 on: November 07, 2005, 12:39:36 PM »

What are the odds of Independents pulling a Whitman and going 3 to 1 or so for Forrester?
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #172 on: November 07, 2005, 12:58:37 PM »


Kaine's ahead actually. He has 70%
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nickshepDEM
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #173 on: November 07, 2005, 01:17:08 PM »

The latest Quinnipiac University poll.

NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR
Corzine 52%
Forrester 45%

Rasmussen pegs the race at a 5% lead for Corzine.

NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR
Corzine 44%
Frrester 39%
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nickshepDEM
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #174 on: November 07, 2005, 02:46:47 PM »

SUSA:

Forrester 44%
Corzine:  50%
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