Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 21, 2019, 03:18:46 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  NOVA GREEN's Election Analysis Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 Print
Author Topic: NOVA GREEN's Election Analysis Thread  (Read 14274 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: April 07, 2018, 07:04:18 pm »

So shots out to nclib, in a metaphorical hip-hop style, not like I just got off a homemade shooting range with one of son in laws that like to occasionally like to do some target practice on some family land outside of City limits....

If we look at the "Flagship State Colleges and Universities" (Although there are some legitimate arguments as to to merits of inclusion when it comes to a few states in our Great Union, we need to roll with the classic definitions to sake of common discussion, rather than wrangle in the weeds about the merits of Academic Inclusion into this most coveted list).

We see the following results:



Now if we were to roll it into an Atlas map by % of support for the winning candidate we see something like the following:



Naturally, one must assume that UT-Austin would vote more Democratic than the County at large, same gig with NM, AZ.

Certainly Chapel Hill NC would fit into that equation as well....

The initial numbers I ran on Grand Forks, ND appear that Trump won the City by significant numbers...

SD haven't played around with yet, let alone the great unknown of Pacific Northwest City of Fairbanks Alaska...

Very curious about exact numbers from Lexington Kentucky, but once again this will be solid Clinton Country, more curious about the margins myself....

Missoula is pretty much a given heavy Dem City, and generally one of the most Democratic Cities in Montana, but again more interested in the margins and overall percentages than the result.

Pretty amazing map if you look at it, especially considering that those graduating from the public universities with the highest status and prestige can pretty much roll out of college and get a job anywhere, and essentially represent the next generation of leaders in the worlds of business/commerce, math/science, political leadership, arts/culture, are voting so overwhelmingly against the party of Trump....

I still remember the days as a Gen Xer where the College Students were so much more conservative than the "townies" during the days of the "Reagan Youth", including working class precincts like mine....
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: April 07, 2018, 07:07:00 pm »

Ok--- time to update the Flagship University City map and numbers....








So, also I decided to add in the 3rd Party combined vote by Flagship University City to see the extent to which voters in these college towns defected from the two major party candidates....

In five states thus far the combined 3rd Party vote exceeded the Republican candidates vote totals   (Berkeley, California--- Amherst, Massachusetts---- Salt Lake City, Utah---- Burlington, Vermont---- Seattle, Washington)

Additionally, I coded Gray Flagship University Cities where the combined 3rd Party vote exceeded 10% (Although I accidentally skipped Morgantown WV).... the list would look something like the following:

Fayetteville, Arkansas--- 10.1%
Moscow, Idaho--- 20.8% (!!!)
Lincoln, Nebraska-- 10.4%
Eugene, Oregon---  11.6%
Morgantown, West Virginia--- 11.1%
Laramie, Wyoming--- 17.3% (!!!)

Now Moscow and Laramie are likely partially explainable because they are part of two states that are at the heart of the "Mormon Belt", so a decent chunk of the 3rd Party defections went to McMullin, as well as your typical Johnson/Stein voters seen throughout most states.....

Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: April 07, 2018, 07:58:41 pm »

So, started a thread initially looking at how Division 1-A Football Communities voted in 2016, initially as a concept to see how Millennial Voters in College communities voted, that was later expanded towards a more detailed analysis of on-campus / off-campus College Undergrad precincts....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.150

PAC-12 North:

So here are the basic numbers for PAC-12 North University Precincts splitting the "Dorm Vote" from the off-campus precincts that are overwhelmingly Undergrad College students...





Needless to say, these numbers do not bode well for the Republican Party within the West Coast, when Trump actually placed 3rd behind combined third party candidates, and in some instances actually placed 3rd or 4th....

I haven't really had a chance to fully digest the data yet on this Thanksgiving Day, but at least wanted to throw the graphs out and complete the PAC-12 North data drilled down to the University Precinct level.

PAC-12 South:

So, let's look at how the PAC-12 South Undergrad University Precincts voted in 2016 in a Graphical Format:

Dorm/Campus Vote:



Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:



So what meaning is there if anything delving into the weeds of Undergrad voting patterns within the PAC 12?

1.) Obviously the results from the University of Utah stand out dramatically, especially looking at the compare/contrast of the Campus Precincts vs Off-Campus Under-Grad Precincts, especially when looking at the numbers from Arizona State University off-campus precincts....

*** Maybe *** this is just an issue of which precincts were included in the "off-campus" precinct category, but even when looking at a much cleaner precinct level like the "Dorm Vote" as ASU, it's looking clearly as the most Republican student voters of the entire PAC-12 (24% Trump)....

The numbers are fairly consistent between ASU Campus and Off-Campus Precincts, which appears that this not a random outlier nor variable....

We can all certainly understand why the University of Utah results stand out, but what is even more interesting is why the ASU results stand out so much?

2.) One must certainly wonder UCLA and USC stand out as the most Democratic Universities within the Conference, even compared against traditionally Liberal / Democratic Universities like University of Colorado- Boulder and University of Arizona- Tucson???

What has changed in the composition of the student population over the past few decades that has shifted these number so dramatically?

3.) Regardless of these numbers, the trends to not appear well for Republicans in the Southwest, considering these are generally overwhelmingly Anglo Universities, where the student base appears to be voting very differently from the behavior of their parents....

PAC 12 Undergrad Consolidated:

So here are the overall number for the PAC-12 Student precincts including Campus and Off-Campus Student Votes...




Big 12 Campus/ Off Campus:

Ok--- Big 12 Conference summarized in a Graphical / Chart Format:

Big 12 Conference Cities--- 2016 Votes by Party:



Ok--- already summarized in a previous graph, but decided to modify the chart to name the City rather than the University, since these are the total vote numbers from the Municipality in which the Campus is located.

Big 12 Conference: Dorm Votes from precincts heavily based "On Campus":




Comments:

1.) Trump appears to have won the "Dorm Vote" at two Universities---  TCU and Texas Tech, which is perhaps not that surprising considering these both have student populations that are more likely to come from backgrounds less receptive towards voting Democrat (Private Christian University, and major Texas Science & Tech school) than many other White/Anglo Millennials in many other parts of Texas, and within the Conference overall.

2.) I was surprised to see Clinton win the Oklahoma State University Dorm Vote, not to mention the margins at KSU, Iowa State University, and Baylor

3.) Obviously the margins at places WVU and University of Oklahoma were much higher than one might have expected, as opposed to UT-Austin and University of Kansas/ Kansas University, where one could have made a reasonable supposition that these would be heavily HRC voters.

Big 12 Conference: Off-Campus Heavily Undergrad Precincts:



1.) So here the interesting thing is that HRC appears to have won the "Off-Campus" Undergrad vote in all of these Universities, even TCU and Texas Tech.... Now, tbh "off-campus precinct data" can be a bit trickier in some cases, as I noted in the various posts regarding these two Universities as well as others, so there is a higher potential MOE since sometimes these precincts might include a higher or lower percentage of grad students, and or locals not currently enrolled at the University.

Still, the Undergrad student votes from Texas Tech and TCU appear to be pretty close between the two major party candidates, once one includes the off-campus student population.

2.) The consistency between Campus and Off-Campus results at WVU, UT-Austin, and Oklahoma State University tend to reinforce the overall voting numbers of the Undergrad student voting population.

3.) We do see some significant variances between "Dorm Votes" and "Off-Campus" voters in several off-campus University towns, Iowa State and Kansas State stand-out as skewing quite a bit more Democratic with the "off-campus vote" and University of Oklahoma as skewing much more Republican with the "off-campus vote"....

These results are likely as a result of a mixture of factors, with off-campus undergrad students much more likely to be 20-22 + Years, working part-time jobs in the surrounding "Student Ghetto" communities on the edges of Campus, and mingling in a bit more with the local younger "Townies", many of whom are also working these same types of jobs on the edges of Campus.

Throw in a few Grad Students working in the "Sweatshops of Academia" getting paid crap wages to teach 100-200 level Undergrad Classes as a "Professor", a few townies mingled into the mix, but still these are heavily Undergrad student precincts selected to minimize data contamination.

Consolidated University City/Campus/Off-Campus Chart:



1.) So here we see HRC outperforming DJT Trump in every Big 12 City among the student population, with the exception of Fort Worth and possibly Ames, Iowa (Depending upon the Campus vs Off-Campus Undergrad student breakdown).

2.) TCU "Off-Campus" votes are interesting, considering they are actually pretty close to Fort Worth as a whole, despite the University being pretty heavily Anglo, compared to the City at large.... Similarly Texas Tech numbers are interesting, considering the Lubbock has an extremely large Latino population, as well as a decent sized African-American population, but still the University voted much more Democratic than the City as a whole....

3.) Numbers from Waco (Baylor), Manhattan (KSU), Norman ( Univ of Oklahoma) show an extremely sharp contrast between the "Townie Vote" vs the "Gownie Vote" especially considering that we don't have an easy methodology to subtract the University Vote from the City Vote, but still it looks pretty clear that the Student vote flipped Waco TX, Manhattan KS, Stillwater OK, and Norman OK....

4.) Votes from students added to Democratic margins in Morgantown WV, Austin TX, and Lawrence KS, although these Cities would still have voted Democratic by decent numbers regardless of the Undergrad Student Vote....










Ok--- Big 12 Conference summarized in a Graphical / Chart Format:

Big 12 Conference Cities--- 2016 Votes by Party:



Ok--- already summarized in a previous graph, but decided to modify the chart to name the City rather than the University, since these are the total vote numbers from the Municipality in which the Campus is located.

Big 12 Conference: Dorm Votes from precincts heavily based "On Campus":




Comments:

1.) Trump appears to have won the "Dorm Vote" at two Universities---  TCU and Texas Tech, which is perhaps not that surprising considering these both have student populations that are more likely to come from backgrounds less receptive towards voting Democrat (Private Christian University, and major Texas Science & Tech school) than many other White/Anglo Millennials in many other parts of Texas, and within the Conference overall.

2.) I was surprised to see Clinton win the Oklahoma State University Dorm Vote, not to mention the margins at KSU, Iowa State University, and Baylor

3.) Obviously the margins at places WVU and University of Oklahoma were much higher than one might have expected, as opposed to UT-Austin and University of Kansas/ Kansas University, where one could have made a reasonable supposition that these would be heavily HRC voters.

Big 12 Conference: Off-Campus Heavily Undergrad Precincts:



1.) So here the interesting thing is that HRC appears to have won the "Off-Campus" Undergrad vote in all of these Universities, even TCU and Texas Tech.... Now, tbh "off-campus precinct data" can be a bit trickier in some cases, as I noted in the various posts regarding these two Universities as well as others, so there is a higher potential MOE since sometimes these precincts might include a higher or lower percentage of grad students, and or locals not currently enrolled at the University.

Still, the Undergrad student votes from Texas Tech and TCU appear to be pretty close between the two major party candidates, once one includes the off-campus student population.

2.) The consistency between Campus and Off-Campus results at WVU, UT-Austin, and Oklahoma State University tend to reinforce the overall voting numbers of the Undergrad student voting population.

3.) We do see some significant variances between "Dorm Votes" and "Off-Campus" voters in several off-campus University towns, Iowa State and Kansas State stand-out as skewing quite a bit more Democratic with the "off-campus vote" and University of Oklahoma as skewing much more Republican with the "off-campus vote"....

These results are likely as a result of a mixture of factors, with off-campus undergrad students much more likely to be 20-22 + Years, working part-time jobs in the surrounding "Student Ghetto" communities on the edges of Campus, and mingling in a bit more with the local younger "Townies", many of whom are also working these same types of jobs on the edges of Campus.

Throw in a few Grad Students working in the "Sweatshops of Academia" getting paid crap wages to teach 100-200 level Undergrad Classes as a "Professor", a few townies mingled into the mix, but still these are heavily Undergrad student precincts selected to minimize data contamination.

Consolidated University City/Campus/Off-Campus Chart:



1.) So here we see HRC outperforming DJT Trump in every Big 12 City among the student population, with the exception of Fort Worth and possibly Ames, Iowa (Depending upon the Campus vs Off-Campus Undergrad student breakdown).

2.) TCU "Off-Campus" votes are interesting, considering they are actually pretty close to Fort Worth as a whole, despite the University being pretty heavily Anglo, compared to the City at large.... Similarly Texas Tech numbers are interesting, considering the Lubbock has an extremely large Latino population, as well as a decent sized African-American population, but still the University voted much more Democratic than the City as a whole....

3.) Numbers from Waco (Baylor), Manhattan (KSU), Norman ( Univ of Oklahoma) show an extremely sharp contrast between the "Townie Vote" vs the "Gownie Vote" especially considering that we don't have an easy methodology to subtract the University Vote from the City Vote, but still it looks pretty clear that the Student vote flipped Waco TX, Manhattan KS, Stillwater OK, and Norman OK....

4.) Votes from students added to Democratic margins in Morgantown WV, Austin TX, and Lawrence KS, although these Cities would still have voted Democratic by decent numbers regardless of the Undergrad Student Vote....









Big 10- East Campus/ Off Campus:

So, let's summarize the results from the Big 10- East in a graphical format....

Here are the results from the Cities/Towns that comprise the Conference...



Here are the results from the Dorm/Campus Vote by University...



Here are the results from Off-Campus heavily Undergrad Precincts:




So what to make of all this???

1.) Obvious outliar that stands out is Penn State, where 30% of the Undergrad Student population voted Trump....

What was it about this student population that caused it to be so heavily Republican, compared to so many other student populations in the region?

2.) We see Trump achieving over 20% of the vote in 5/7 Big 10-East campuses, but only at MSU did Trump hit 25% (Other than Penn State).

3.) Third Party support appears to be extremely low among University Students here, compared to most PAC-12 and Big-12 University campuses...

4.) At the "Elite" public Universities of Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan it appears that the Undergrad Millennial Student body overwhelmingly rejected the message of Trump, despite the massive swings towards Trump in the "Rust Belt" of the Upper Midwest....

5.) Again, I ask the question did the College kids in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania cost HRC the 2016 Presidential Election because of lack of turnout, defection to 3rd Party Candidates, and general complacency with a Dem Pres Candidate that was not particularly inspiring that nobody viewed as "The third Obama Term" (Despite the message HRC was trying to roll with).

Big 10-West Campus / Off-Campus:

Big Ten West--- University Precinct Results Completed!!!!

Here are how the Cities of the Big 10- West voted in 2016:



Here are how the Dorm/Campus voters of the Big 10- West voted in 2016:



Here are how the Off-Campus Undergrad precincts of the Big 10- West voted in 2016:



Here are the consolidated Dorm/Campus precincts and Off-Campus precincts of the Big 10-West and how they voted in 2016:



I'll let others comment in more detail, as I already made various comments running through the individual University campus communities, but hell at least here is a summary sheet for Christmas Day, for anyone out there that at least vicariously observes the Holiday, as well as something interesting to look at for those who don't celebrate the Holiday, but still want to check out something interesting on Atlas, even on a slow-posting day for the most part. Smiley



Anyways, tons more data on the thread and in my files in what was essentially an incomplete project that still provides some insights into how younger Millennial College Students voted in 2016 in most of the Public Universities that tend to be on the prestige radar because they happen to have a top tier College Ball Team.....

Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: April 11, 2018, 01:09:50 am »

So, started doing a review of some of the demographics of portions of CD-08 to see what if anything that might indicate.

If we look at the preceding information that I posted the other day, the Legislative District 1 portion of CD-08, with generally Democrats only receiving about 30% of the Vote and Republicans generally hitting 65-70%, with the exception of the '16 Sheriff race where it was 40% Dem and 60% Republican.

What is interesting is that despite it being a reliably Republican predominately Unincorporated part of the County, thus far we aren't seeing the Republican Turnout levels, nor turnout advantage that we might expect (This could still all obviously change.)

So here's a map that shows the borders of this area and some basic demographic information (Race/Ethnicity, Median Household Income, % of population 60+ and % of population with 4+ Yr Degrees.



So here several things jump out immediately.... even though this is a Republican stronghold it really isn't that old compared to many other parts of the district. It is generally Pretty Anglo and Upper Middle-Class by income, with a not especially dramatic level of education compared to what one might expect.

Note that the largest precinct within the district by Population, roughly aligns with the Census Data for a tract with a Median Household Income of $102k/Yr,

Also, although the Census tracts don't break down Occupation in as much detail, here is a chart of the Occupations that include the bulk of this portion of CD08.



So here we see an occupation breakdown that leans heavily White Collar and Professional.

Needless to say, these are exactly the types of suburban voters that a Democrat will need to make significant inroads with in order to win the district, considering relative age, occupation, and incomes.

We did see something similar in heavily Republican suburbs of South Allegheny among these types of voters that predominately resisted the major Democratic suburban swings between '12 and '16, so it is not completely out of the question that this could potentially occur within this portion of CD-08.

I would imagine that the Democratic Candidate would need to keep the Republican down to a +10 to +15 point lead in this portion of the district to have a shot at winning in CD-08.

Arizona Legislative District 4:

This is a relatively small sliver of the voting electorate within CD-08 only accounting for 2-3% of the total district vote, and is one of a only a small handful of consistently Democratic voting areas within the district.



Although we don't have a nice occupational chart, we see the occupational sectors skew much for Lower Middle-Class and Working Class occupations such as Sales, Administrative, Food Service and the like and only about 20% of the workforce employed in more "Professional" type occupations such as Management, Business, Computers, Engineering, etc....

So several things stand out here we have a population that includes a significant bloc of Democratic leaning constituencies since this part of the district is only 55% Anglo (Although likely a much larger share of Registered Voters) and a relatively young voting age demographic (32% of the entire population is 18-39 Years).

The key question for Democrats is will the ease of Vote-by-Mail in Arizona, the increased voter registration activities tied to the election to defeat Sheriff Joe, translate into both high turnout levels in the Special Election, and a high level of Democratic support?

There are plenty of other pockets similar to this scattered throughout CD-08 and Democrats will obviously need every vote they can get here.

Right now we're only seeing this Legislative District represent 1.5% of the total Early Vote, far below the 3% from the '16 GE, and Republicans are leaning 37-39% on the EV ballots cast thus far.

Democrats would likely need to hit 60% here to meet benchmarks, with 58% of the voters having rejected Sheriff Joe in November '16.

Will post more on some of the other Legislative Districts when I get a chance....
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: April 11, 2018, 01:11:39 am »

Arizona Legislative District 13:

This one is a bit tricky since it encompasses a wide range of Political and Demographic terrain, but it is one of those areas where Democrats will need to perform well to contest CD-08, since not only does it account for 8-9% of the total CD-08 Vote Share, and although it is probably the 4th most Republican Legislative District located within CD-08, Flake only received 54% of the vote here in '12, "Sheriff Joe" only won here by 2% in '16, and Trump received "only" 56% of the Vote here in 2016, and ran a few points below his CD-08 average.

So what does the Census and Demographic data tell us about this section of the district?

Note: Some of the Census Data I needed to amalgamate by various Block Tracts to try to get the best possible data, and there were a few precincts within the CD-08 legislative portion of the district where it was either too labor intensive to get the data, so please don't view this as the definitive statement on the demographics of all the CD-08 portions of this Arizona Legislative district.



So where to start? We see a handful of heavily Anglo and older precincts (Pebble Creek & Wigwam stand out), a couple precincts that are borderline Anglo majority with solidly Middle-Class household income levels, and a relatively younger population (Desert Vista and Rio Paseo stand out here), and then we have relatively exurban precincts (Waddell and Alsup) which is a place where I am least confident of the demographic data, since I needed to try to consolidate among multiple Census tracts from Citrus Grove, to a couple slivers of Glendale, and then some of the Uninc areas surrounding that don't have any type of CDP designation.....

Now, what do the election results by precinct show us in 2016 for the Arizona Legislative District 13 part of CD-08?



So we see 43% of the 2016 Sheriff results come out of just three precincts that voted for Sheriff Joe, versus 7 precincts that voted for the Democratic Candidate.

Pebble Creek, which must be a Senior Only Community (88% 60+ Yrs) and is 93% Anglo voted +26% Trump, +14% Sheriff Joe, but was +37% Romney in '12 (+11% Dem Pres Swing) accounted for 21% of the CD-08 AZ District 13 vote in 2016....

So interestingly enough these Upper Middle-Class Seniors (MHI of $65k/Yr in an overwhelmingly retirement community) appear to have swung more Democratic than Maricopa at large in the Presidential Election, while still backing the Sheriff.

Swing Chart by Precinct:



If we look at Wigwam (80% Anglo, 33% 60+) and 19% of CD-08 sections of AZ-LD 13, we see Trump only winning by 10 Points, but going 54-46% Dem for Sheriff.

So it is not inconceivable that Anglo Seniors in CD-08 might potentially swing increasingly Democrat in a Special Election where the Democratic Candidate has been pressing hard on Health Care related issues, where much of the dramatic support for ACA has been coming from Seniors that are digging it now that they see how it actually works for them, while the 'Pubs tried to kill ACA (Thanks to Senator McCain for their failure).

The other major Republican precinct within the district is Waddell (67-26 Trump), and 20% of the 2016 vote within LD 13 portion of CD-08 and also where I am least confident of the demographic data presented....

Although it's not really an "Old folks precinct" per se by Phoenix standards, I strongly suspect that the Anglo proportion of the voters are much higher than demographic data indicates, and that there's something about Desert Rats that want to live outside of any type of Municipal boundaries to lower their tax burden vs those that prefer to live within communities that provide a range of services from water/sewage/garbage/law enforcement, etc....

I don't really pretend to have an angle on this precinct, and it's a bit harder to read than most others within the district.

What about the rest of the Legislative District???

We don't really see much in the way of Democratic strongholds, Luke Field stands out as the only HRC precinct within the district, but I didn't run the demographic numbers here, but has long been the most Democratic precinct within the district even in 2014 for the Gov Election where the Dem candidate captured 43% of the Vote against the 'Pubs 50.7%.

Desert Vista obviously stands out here considering not only is it the least Anglo precinct that I pulled numbers from (48% Anglo, 31% Latino, 8% Black, 7% Asian), but also has the highest Median Household Income of any precinct surveyed $95k/Yr, AND 35% of the population is 18-39 Years old.

This precinct went 45-47 Trump, but 56-43 Dem for Sheriff, 42-57 Romney (+17% Dem Swing), and 45-52 Flake in '12.

Rio Paseo in theory be more Democratic than it is (43-49 Trump) but 54-46 Dem Sheriff, but still had the Highest Dem swing than any other precinct within this portion of district (+15% Dem Pres '12 > '16).

So, there's quite a bit more data out for this portion of CD-08, but one of the key things to look at since we don't really have much in the way of "Ancestral Democratic" places to look at here, are those places which swung hardest Democrat between '12 and '16.

Here we see a mixture of the greatest swings happening to largely Anglo and Senior precincts (Pebble Creek and Wigwam), and those places with the highest concentration of Ethnic Minorities (Desert Vista and Rio Paseo), even though there are significant differences in MHI and Demographics between these two Communities.

Although I still haven't fully processed all of the data compiled yet for this district, it's pretty clear that there is a potential path for a Dem in CD-08 Legislative District 13 that expands upon the gains among Senior Anglos, while simultaneously achieving high voter turnout within those precincts that are ground zero of the "New Emerging Democratic Coalition" within the 'Burbs of Phoenix.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: April 11, 2018, 01:13:13 am »

OK, here are the charts that I was trying to embed in my post yesterday to look at voter turnout by precincts through the April 5th Update (Yes, I know there is a new one out today, but haven't been able to get into updating the spreadsheet yet).

This includes the TOTAL precinct turnout through the 4/5/18 update for precincts where over 48% of the total ballots have been returned to date.

I sorted by % of ballots already received and color coded on the basis of '16 PRES and '16 Sheriff Margins, with the darker shades of Blue being the most Republican in a CD that went + 23 Trump and only + 5 "Sheriff Joe". The white cells in the PRES margins category are for those areas that voted Trump by less than his CD average.



What do these precincts where the highest level of turnout have been thus far in the Special Election share in common?

They are overwhelmingly Elderly, Anglo and fairly heavily Republican as well as concentrated within a relatively small slice of the CD-08 by Population.

The other common denominator is that they did not really experience the significant swings towards the Democratic opponent to Sheriff Joe, that much of the rest of the district did.

This is part of the reason why I consider them relatively inelastic, although it should be noted that Sun City itself (As opposed to Sun City West) is certainly a place where there might be a potential Democratic swing in '18/'20 in AZ.

Still, to follow to the point that I made yesterday, one must wonder to what extent Republicans have essentially cannibalized their EV margins by front-loading these areas. This means that by logical extension, the overall DEM-REP-IND EV % and ultimately TOTAL election results % will look very different than the current Party turnout %.  (More on that later in a subsequent post).

Which precincts so far have the lowest turnout levels?

Again tried to use a similar kind of coding system and just focus more on the color shading rather than a staggered margin fancy scaling system and all that.



So surprise, surprise precincts that have the lowest Early Voter Turnout levels to date, also happen to correspond to the most Democratic precincts (In General).

Republicans like to vote early and vote often to counterbalance perceived voting fraud from over-represented ethnic minorities....   (JOKE---- couldn't resist so please no offense my 'Pub friends and family out there).

Ok--- now really for the most part this list tends to correlate much more heavily with precincts with higher proportions of younger, Latino, and working-class populations than many other parts of CD-08.

El Mirage is perhaps the most observable, but as you can see from the list there are similar communities scattered all around the district with places in Goodyear and Surprise showing up heavily on the list, not to mention a couple precincts from Peoria.

So.... Arizona CD-08 is a "Tale of Two Districts" where the Older Anglo SoCal and Midwest retiree Republicans have traditionally been a dominant political force, with several newer generations, including the increasingly Multi-Ethnic Millennial Generation that tends to lean Democratic even here, with the Middling Turnout levels of the "Bridging Generation" being where most likely any election in this district will be decided....

(I did not post the 33% of the precincts that I consider to be in that swing category yet, but I'll give y'all of y'alls a hint to anyone that's been following my posts, it really comes down to how heavily key parts of Glendale and Peoria swing--- that are essentially more of your Middle-Aged and Middle-Class majority Anglo precincts, much more likely to have kids in public schools, registered Independents, and most importantly is where if we are going to see the district flip in a Special Election is where Democrats will turn out in high numbers, Republicans might be more likely to flip, and Indies can swing wildly.)

Something to chew on....
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: April 22, 2018, 07:14:12 pm »

Decided to shift focus slightly here, since it appears that we will have some updated results of Early Vote totals by Partisan Registration and Arizona State legislative districts to potentially provide us with some means of trying to interpret early voting results as they roll in from the Great State of Arizona...

People might want to file away or bookmark some of this data as a reference point over the next couple weeks....

So here is a chart I made that shows the current Early Voting numbers by legislative districts compared against the 2016 General Election and 2014 General Election that gives us an idea of the relative vote share by State Districts.



I'll try to keep updating this semi-regularly as we get updated results for EV numbers by district.

Now, the key caveat here is that the numbers for '14 and '16 are the total vote share by district (Including Election Day ballots, as well as all Early Voting ballots) and obviously the numbers on the left are constantly under development.

Although I don't pretend to be a fluent expert on the dynamics of Early Voting in Arizona, but in Oregon that has long been an all Vote-by-Mail State, we typically tend to see a massive surge of ballots show up in the last week on an election, and these frequently tend to come from younger and Middle-Aged voters, Cities/Suburbs, and tend to skew a bit more Democratic than some of the earliest wave of mail-in-ballots.

Thus far we are seeing one major trend in CD-08 vote share that stands out, which is the extremely lopsided numbers from State District 22, which has always been the largest "Vote Bank" in the district, and looking at an off-year election in 2014 tends to have an even heavier weight.

If we look at the next largest district State District 21 we see a relatively stable performance compared to '14 and '16.

Elsewhere thus far we are seeing significant drops in most other State Districts, with the exception of State District 13.

The largest % drop of EV in AZ-08 compared to total Vote Share by State District, is in District 20.

This is perhaps not surprising, considering that those districts that vote early early by mail, versus those areas with much higher rates of "Same Day" turnout are going to experience some variances, but it is still important to continue to observe going forward.

Now, how did these Arizona State Districts vote between 2012 and 2016 for some key races?



So what does this matrix that I generated tell us (If anything) about voting patterns in CD-08?

1.) Look closely at the 2012 US-SEN results by district to see how well a "New Republican Congressional Candidate" performed by State District in CD-08 in what was generally considered to be a favorable Republican election year.

      A.) We see really only three Republican State District strongholds (Districts 1, 15, and 22) and then some relative marginal numbers in Districts 13,20, & 21.

      B.)Some of the margins are explained by a 3rd Party Libertarian Candidate that performed quite well, but Trump still outperformed Flake in most of the State Districts as a % of Total 'Pub Votes, with the exception of State District 15, 29 & 30.

2.) The closest thing we have to a winning Democratic playbook in CD-08 would be the 2016 Maricopa County Sheriff Election where Sheriff Joe won by 5% within the CD.

    A.) We see a massive breakthough in House District 20 (Most of Glendale within the District), that was only +9 Flake in '12, and also where there was a significant drop in 'Pub support between the '12 and '16 Presidential Elections, but basically where even in the '16 Pres and '12 Sen election, only 52% voted 'Pub.

    B.) District 21 is starting to look like increasingly marginal 'Pub territory looking at the '12 US SEN results, Trump only capturing 54% in '16, and Sheriff Joe only winning in a squeaker here....

       As I previously stated, it's all about Peoria, Arizona and considering that Sun City didn't swing hard Dem on Sheriff, means that the part of the district in Peoria and Surprise likely played a key role here.

3.) Ok--- thus far we have seen much higher EV numbers come out of the most heavily Republican State Senate District within CD-08 (District 22) and also District 15 (One of the only other overwhelmingly 'Pub Districts), and much lower EV turnout among the handful of Dem leaning districts, and also within the key District 20, where Dem's need to win big in Glendale to make this anything close to a horserace).

4. Now, what do the early voting numbers tell us from CD-08 compared against previous margins from recent key elections?



So, interestingly enough the total Registered Republican vs Registered Democratic vote margins appear to be weakest in the most Republican Districts within CD-08.

The places where Republican vs Democratic EV turnout compared to previous elections is highest compared to total votes are in the most heavily Democratic or potentially Democratic leaning areas (Where there is much higher % of Same Day voting)....

There could be multiple explanations for the significant decline of Republican EV turnout in the most heavily Republican portions of the County, and certainly one could possibly be the explanation that I suggested earlier in this thread, that one can't automatically assume that Independents tend to Lean Democratic in this particular district, which could obviously perhaps explain why there appears to have been a bit of a collapse in the most heavily 'Pub Arizona districts, but that might well be a bit of a stretch.

At this point it's looking like the 'Pub numbers in State Districts (1,15, and 22) are starting to look fairly weak, district 20 (Must win heavily Dem area) strong, plus some relatively favorable early indicators from district 21 (Must flip Dem area)....

To be Updated and Continued accordingly, but still we now have some additional data points to watch the EV in "Real Time" without knowing how Dems/Reps/Indies will breakdown in final voting numbers within the district....


Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: April 22, 2018, 07:16:41 pm »

So, started doing a review of some of the demographics of portions of CD-08 to see what if anything that might indicate.

If we look at the preceding information that I posted the other day, the Legislative District 1 portion of CD-08, with generally Democrats only receiving about 30% of the Vote and Republicans generally hitting 65-70%, with the exception of the '16 Sheriff race where it was 40% Dem and 60% Republican.

What is interesting is that despite it being a reliably Republican predominately Unincorporated part of the County, thus far we aren't seeing the Republican Turnout levels, nor turnout advantage that we might expect (This could still all obviously change.)

So here's a map that shows the borders of this area and some basic demographic information (Race/Ethnicity, Median Household Income, % of population 60+ and % of population with 4+ Yr Degrees.



So here several things jump out immediately.... even though this is a Republican stronghold it really isn't that old compared to many other parts of the district. It is generally Pretty Anglo and Upper Middle-Class by income, with a not especially dramatic level of education compared to what one might expect.

Note that the largest precinct within the district by Population, roughly aligns with the Census Data for a tract with a Median Household Income of $102k/Yr,

Also, although the Census tracts don't break down Occupation in as much detail, here is a chart of the Occupations that include the bulk of this portion of CD08.



So here we see an occupation breakdown that leans heavily White Collar and Professional.

Needless to say, these are exactly the types of suburban voters that a Democrat will need to make significant inroads with in order to win the district, considering relative age, occupation, and incomes.

We did see something similar in heavily Republican suburbs of South Allegheny among these types of voters that predominately resisted the major Democratic suburban swings between '12 and '16, so it is not completely out of the question that this could potentially occur within this portion of CD-08.

I would imagine that the Democratic Candidate would need to keep the Republican down to a +10 to +15 point lead in this portion of the district to have a shot at winning in CD-08.

Arizona Legislative District 4:

This is a relatively small sliver of the voting electorate within CD-08 only accounting for 2-3% of the total district vote, and is one of a only a small handful of consistently Democratic voting areas within the district.



Although we don't have a nice occupational chart, we see the occupational sectors skew much for Lower Middle-Class and Working Class occupations such as Sales, Administrative, Food Service and the like and only about 20% of the workforce employed in more "Professional" type occupations such as Management, Business, Computers, Engineering, etc....

So several things stand out here we have a population that includes a significant bloc of Democratic leaning constituencies since this part of the district is only 55% Anglo (Although likely a much larger share of Registered Voters) and a relatively young voting age demographic (32% of the entire population is 18-39 Years).

The key question for Democrats is will the ease of Vote-by-Mail in Arizona, the increased voter registration activities tied to the election to defeat Sheriff Joe, translate into both high turnout levels in the Special Election, and a high level of Democratic support?

There are plenty of other pockets similar to this scattered throughout CD-08 and Democrats will obviously need every vote they can get here.

Right now we're only seeing this Legislative District represent 1.5% of the total Early Vote, far below the 3% from the '16 GE, and Republicans are leaning 37-39% on the EV ballots cast thus far.

Democrats would likely need to hit 60% here to meet benchmarks, with 58% of the voters having rejected Sheriff Joe in November '16.

Will post more on some of the other Legislative Districts when I get a chance....
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: April 22, 2018, 07:18:07 pm »

Arizona Legislative District 13:

This one is a bit tricky since it encompasses a wide range of Political and Demographic terrain, but it is one of those areas where Democrats will need to perform well to contest CD-08, since not only does it account for 8-9% of the total CD-08 Vote Share, and although it is probably the 4th most Republican Legislative District located within CD-08, Flake only received 54% of the vote here in '12, "Sheriff Joe" only won here by 2% in '16, and Trump received "only" 56% of the Vote here in 2016, and ran a few points below his CD-08 average.

So what does the Census and Demographic data tell us about this section of the district?

Note: Some of the Census Data I needed to amalgamate by various Block Tracts to try to get the best possible data, and there were a few precincts within the CD-08 legislative portion of the district where it was either too labor intensive to get the data, so please don't view this as the definitive statement on the demographics of all the CD-08 portions of this Arizona Legislative district.



So where to start? We see a handful of heavily Anglo and older precincts (Pebble Creek & Wigwam stand out), a couple precincts that are borderline Anglo majority with solidly Middle-Class household income levels, and a relatively younger population (Desert Vista and Rio Paseo stand out here), and then we have relatively exurban precincts (Waddell and Alsup) which is a place where I am least confident of the demographic data, since I needed to try to consolidate among multiple Census tracts from Citrus Grove, to a couple slivers of Glendale, and then some of the Uninc areas surrounding that don't have any type of CDP designation.....

Now, what do the election results by precinct show us in 2016 for the Arizona Legislative District 13 part of CD-08?



So we see 43% of the 2016 Sheriff results come out of just three precincts that voted for Sheriff Joe, versus 7 precincts that voted for the Democratic Candidate.

Pebble Creek, which must be a Senior Only Community (88% 60+ Yrs) and is 93% Anglo voted +26% Trump, +14% Sheriff Joe, but was +37% Romney in '12 (+11% Dem Pres Swing) accounted for 21% of the CD-08 AZ District 13 vote in 2016....

So interestingly enough these Upper Middle-Class Seniors (MHI of $65k/Yr in an overwhelmingly retirement community) appear to have swung more Democratic than Maricopa at large in the Presidential Election, while still backing the Sheriff.

Swing Chart by Precinct:



If we look at Wigwam (80% Anglo, 33% 60+) and 19% of CD-08 sections of AZ-LD 13, we see Trump only winning by 10 Points, but going 54-46% Dem for Sheriff.

So it is not inconceivable that Anglo Seniors in CD-08 might potentially swing increasingly Democrat in a Special Election where the Democratic Candidate has been pressing hard on Health Care related issues, where much of the dramatic support for ACA has been coming from Seniors that are digging it now that they see how it actually works for them, while the 'Pubs tried to kill ACA (Thanks to Senator McCain for their failure).

The other major Republican precinct within the district is Waddell (67-26 Trump), and 20% of the 2016 vote within LD 13 portion of CD-08 and also where I am least confident of the demographic data presented....

Although it's not really an "Old folks precinct" per se by Phoenix standards, I strongly suspect that the Anglo proportion of the voters are much higher than demographic data indicates, and that there's something about Desert Rats that want to live outside of any type of Municipal boundaries to lower their tax burden vs those that prefer to live within communities that provide a range of services from water/sewage/garbage/law enforcement, etc....

I don't really pretend to have an angle on this precinct, and it's a bit harder to read than most others within the district.

What about the rest of the Legislative District???

We don't really see much in the way of Democratic strongholds, Luke Field stands out as the only HRC precinct within the district, but I didn't run the demographic numbers here, but has long been the most Democratic precinct within the district even in 2014 for the Gov Election where the Dem candidate captured 43% of the Vote against the 'Pubs 50.7%.

Desert Vista obviously stands out here considering not only is it the least Anglo precinct that I pulled numbers from (48% Anglo, 31% Latino, 8% Black, 7% Asian), but also has the highest Median Household Income of any precinct surveyed $95k/Yr, AND 35% of the population is 18-39 Years old.

This precinct went 45-47 Trump, but 56-43 Dem for Sheriff, 42-57 Romney (+17% Dem Swing), and 45-52 Flake in '12.

Rio Paseo in theory be more Democratic than it is (43-49 Trump) but 54-46 Dem Sheriff, but still had the Highest Dem swing than any other precinct within this portion of district (+15% Dem Pres '12 > '16).

So, there's quite a bit more data out for this portion of CD-08, but one of the key things to look at since we don't really have much in the way of "Ancestral Democratic" places to look at here, are those places which swung hardest Democrat between '12 and '16.

Here we see a mixture of the greatest swings happening to largely Anglo and Senior precincts (Pebble Creek and Wigwam), and those places with the highest concentration of Ethnic Minorities (Desert Vista and Rio Paseo), even though there are significant differences in MHI and Demographics between these two Communities.

Although I still haven't fully processed all of the data compiled yet for this district, it's pretty clear that there is a potential path for a Dem in CD-08 Legislative District 13 that expands upon the gains among Senior Anglos, while simultaneously achieving high voter turnout within those precincts that are ground zero of the "New Emerging Democratic Coalition" within the 'Burbs of Phoenix.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: April 22, 2018, 07:20:43 pm »

Arizona LD-15 precincts located within CD-08: Social and Political Geography:

Continuing my series on the political and social demographics of CD-08, it's time to take a look at this district, which basically includes six precincts located within the City of Phoenix and accounts for roughly 6% of the total CD-08 vote in a typical General Election.



As we can see from looking at the demographic information by precinct, the fundamental characteristics of this district tend to skew fairly Middle-Aged, with a relatively small Senior population compared to many other parts of the district, Upper Income and Upper Middle-Class, fairly well educated, and a bit more Anglo than the district at large.

Politically, it tends to lean fairly reliably Republican:

2016 Pres: +24 Trump       (+6% D Swing)
2012 Pres: +30 Romney
2012 SEN:  +24 Flake

However, in the 2016 Maricopa County Sheriff race, it was only 48-52 Republican.

Several obvious points here, is that this is exactly the type of area where a Democratic candidate will need to perform well to make this a competitive election since these are precisely the types of voters that thus far in Maricopa County have been resistant to voting Democratic, even as many similar areas in the Country swung heavily towards HRC in 2016.

Let's take a look at how these six precincts voted in the 2016 General Election, as well as Turnout thus far in the 2018 Special Election, AND the 2012 PRES and SEN races....





Thus far we see the most Democratic precinct (Julie) with the lowest % of ballots returned to date for LD-15. This was the only precinct here to vote against Sheriff Joe, and where Trump only received 51% of the vote in 2016, and logically a place where one might expect a Democrat to perform fairly well within this election, considering it skews younger with a relatively large Minority component. Here we have the highest % of 3rd Party defections in 2016, with 10% supporting LIB, GRN, WI, etc.... This same precinct mirrors the overall 2012 to 2016 PRES swings within CD-08 LD-15 (+5% D), so is potentially a good composite of the precinct to look at as we move deeper into 2018, although 3rd Party defections likely played a major role in the numbers being much lower for HRC than the overall precinct profile might suggest.

Julie RV: (26 D- 38 R- 34 I)

The next lowest share of turnout is Creedence, which although it is also heavily younger in population, is much more Anglo than Julie, and also fairly Republican, excepting the '16 Sheriff Race. It is slightly less Republican than most of the other precincts in this portion of the LD, and the only place to swing towards Trump in 2016, which was likely mainly a result of 8% of voters defecting to 3rd Party Candidates.

RV: (22 D- 45 R- 31 I)

Now, lets shift focus to a couple other precincts where we are seeing the highest level of Turnout to date within CD-08 LD-15:

Pyramid Peak:

Accounted for 28% of the vote here in 2016, making it the largest precinct by vote share.

The wealthiest precinct within the district as measured by MHI, with a Median Household Income of $ 108k/Yr, 38% of the Population with at least a 4+ Yr College Degree,and also the 2nd largest Asian-American population within this portion of LD-15 (7%)....

Traditionally heavily Republican and current voter turnout is 37% (2nd Highest within LD-15), is also one of two precincts where we saw the greatest PRES swing '12 > '16 (+9.5% Dem).

As I suggested on previous posts on this thread, places where we saw the greatest '12> '16 Dem swings within CD-08, as well as places where we saw the greatest Trump/ Sheriff Joe swings, might well be the types of places where if a Dem will win an election in CD-08.

RV: (22 D- 48 R- 30 I)

Desert Sage:

This precinct is the one where I am least confident in the Demographic profile, because of US Census tract data doesn't cleanly overlap the way it does in the other precincts here.

Still, the basic demographic profile indicates that it has the 2nd lowest Anglo population within LD-15 (72% Anglo) and the highest Asian-American population (11%)....

Looks to be heavily Middle-Class and Middle-Aged voters with an extremely low proportion of the population aged 60+.

The biggest swings between the PRES numbers '12>'16 occurred here, with a +9.8% Dem swing.

Overall voter turnout to date skews towards the Middle Range of Ld-15 to date, AND it was "Sheriff Joe's" 2nd best precinct (+5.3% R).

It was the most Pub precinct in the '14 Governor race, the most Pub precinct in the '12 Pres race and Flake grabbed 63% of the vote in the '12 SEN race.

Really curious about this precinct, (Although honestly I'm always curious about most precincts in the US), because it is a bit unusual for CD-08 in many ways....

RV: (21 D- 48 R- 30 I)

OK--- we have two precincts left to check on with the Socio-Demographic data overlapped with Electoral Data....

Happy Valley:

The most 'Pub precinct in the '16 PRES GE election (30-64 Trump, 46-54 R Sheriff,). Also the 2nd most Pub precinct in '12, and most Pub precinct in the '12 US-Sen race.

The 2nd wealthiest precinct when it comes to Median Household Income ($104k/Yr). The highest % of population aged 60+ Yrs (24%), and the 2nd highest precinct with people that have a 4+ Year College Degree....

We see the highest % Turnout to Date within the LD, considering that it is the oldest is perhaps not surprising.

We also see only a +2.5% D PRES swing between '12 > '16, with only a 6% 3rd Party defection in '16.

Keep watching the turnout here, since it's one of those places where apparently the older Anglos are extremely heavily Republican, AND the upper-income Middle-Aged Anglos are also not especially "swingy" either.

RV: (21 D- 52 R- 26 I)

Lindner:

The last precinct within the district is a weird hybrid, with the Northern half of the precinct looking much more like Julie, and the Southern half appears to be one of those "Senior Only" type Phoenix area suburban places....

The Northern portion of the precinct tends to be much more Latino than the Southern Portion, and although the overall precinct MHI of $66.5k makes it look like more of Middle-Class community, the reality is that once you factor in the Senior Population the data starts to get murkier.

Overall this precinct looks like one of the least "Trump friendly precincts" (57.9% Trump), and one of the lowest '12>'16 Dem swings (+1.6%), but actually the 2nd best precinct for the Dem running against Sheriff Joe.

The key question here is the balance between the Senior Voters to the South and more varied demographic landscape to the North....

RV: (24 D- 44 R- 31 R)

Wish we had more data points to work with when it comes to a competitive Dem race in CD-08, but hey got to work with what we got, right?



To be continued with LD-20 (Must win big for a DEM in CD-08)....
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: April 22, 2018, 07:23:24 pm »

So we have some new EV Turnout numbers by Party Registration and PEVL Votes (Those voters pre-approved) to Vote-by-Mail) that includes data from Friday, Monday, and Tuesday, that was just updated today on the election website.

We're now up to ~ 144k Total Votes, or roughly 1/3 of the Registered Voters within CD-08.

The AZ Data Guru has been a bit over the map on turnout models, but currently has it at around 50% of the final total votes (280k Total Turnout), but posted a graph today as to why the uncertainty in total estimated voter turnout numbers.....

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer

If we look at the PEVL voters, already 45% of those that received Mail-in Ballots have them returned and "in the bank"!!!

Roughly 70% of Registered Voters have Mail-in-Ballots and 30% can only vote same-day, hence my multiple previous statements on this thread that we should have a much clearer idea of the potential partisan composition of the electorate by Election Eve Monday.



Now, the key thing to note here is that thus far, both Registered Democratic and Republicans appear to have already delivered 50% of their respective mail-in-base to the polls, whereas Indies are lagging at 37%.....

Another way of looking at it is that Dems basically have 34k Mail-In-Ballots outstanding, Pubs 72k, and Indies 65k!!!!

Obviously Dems should hope that these Indy Ballots start surging towards the endgame, and aggressively target various precincts and locations with last minute GOTV efforts in places where that would likely net a favorable outcome, since in a straight up DEM-REP fistfight in CD-08 with weak Indy voting, the math becomes increasingly problematic.

Time to look at EV voting numbers to date by LD...



So here we have perhaps a better sense of the changes within the state of the election a week after we started to get our first surge of early ballots....

The key item that I look at are the changing overall Vote Share between LD-20 and LD-22 precincts located within CD-08....

LD-22 generally accounts for the Largest chunk of CD-08 Voters (35% in '16 and 37% in the off-year '14 election).

It not only the largest LD within CD-08 by Vote Share, but also the 2nd most Republican District.....

LD-22 Vote shares within CD-08 have dropped from 42% to 40% between 4/5 and 4/17 posting numbers....

This is likely because of the early "vote banking" from overwhelmingly Republican Sun City West (Elderly overwhelmingly Anglo Upper Middle Class retirees marketed to SoCal Seniors thinking of making a move to Phoenix....)

The fact that these shares continue to drop is obviously an extremely positive sign for the Democratic Contender, considering that unless something completely bizarre happens like a +10 D win, THIS will be the CD-08 'Pub Firewall to protect against major Indy swings elsewhere...

This is why I monitor by LD as a Macro Level overview in the fast moving data flow of VbM elections....

We are now seeing LD-20 starting to getting closer to catching up with their 9% Vote Shares in the '16 and '14 GEs....

This is significant, since as I mentioned previously, this is a place where DEMs need HUGE % margins and Turnout to make this election close.

Meanwhile, what I consider the likely decided factor is LD-21 (26-28% of LD-08), hence my previous "How Will it Play in Peoria" references, that in many ways is this is really the closest thing to a "Swing District" within LD-08....

Current EV numbers are actually closely tracking historical patterns as a total district vote share.....

Trump only received 54% of the PRES vote here in '16, and Sheriff Joe only received 50.3% of the Vote in '16....  AND Flake only captured 52% of the Vote in '12.....

Although we don't have much in the way of objective modeling when it comes to D-R-I historical results, THIS is the LD that will likely provide the make-break for either the DEM or PUB in CD-08....


Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: April 22, 2018, 07:24:46 pm »

I'm starting to wonder if Republicans are running into some Turnout issues in LD-01 and LD-15....
basically Exurban Northern Phoenix Area and a few precincts in NW Phoenix....

Started to think about this since I found some odd numbers in both LDs earlier today, ran some numbers, and it does appear that Republican Early Voting in these relatively affluent Republican areas is way lower than one would expect from traditional Early Voting habits....

Here are the precinct numbers for turnout among Pre-Approved Early Voters, and we do see that Dems are well exceeding their Party Vote Share by PEVL, compared to Pubs in the vast majority of precincts....

One must certainly wonder to what extent this pattern also exists in the wealthier and educated precincts in places like North Glendale, North Peoria, etc....

Throw in a 60-40 Indy Scene in similar places, makes the district look extremely different from a political perspective...


Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: April 22, 2018, 07:25:51 pm »

So to expand upon an item that I first observed last night, it does appear that Republicans do appear to have a significant Early Voting Turnout Gap in many Upper-Income Middle-Aged Anglo precincts within CD-08....

This is potentially significant in terms of where we might observe major swings towards the Democratic Candidate on Election Night, since these are the types of places where voters tend to be heavily Registered Republican, and vote early by Mail...

After spending a bit of time reviewing CD-08, my current take is that this was not only designed as a "SAFE PUB" district, but more significantly designed to appeal to multiple different elements of the Maricopa County Republican Coalition, that include the following voting blocs:

1.) Senior Citizens
2.) Upper Middle-Class Anglo Professionals
3.) Fast Growing Exurban populations

Throw in a healthy dose of Middle and Working Class communities with a significant Latino population, but where the population is majority Anglo... and meet AZ CD-08....

So let's look at those places where the Democratic Party has been turning out their Registered Voters at a much higher % than Registered Republican Voters to see what the early vote turnout battle looks like To Date....



Although there is no question that these are overwhelmingly Republican Precincts, one must certainly wonder if Republican EV turnout is extremely low in places like this, to what extent we will see a higher level of swings among Registered Republicans, and most significantly Independent voters break hard Dem....



Now let's look at those precincts where EV REG DEM turnout is running in the Mid Range compared to EV REG REP turnout....



So here we are starting to see Democrats turning out their base in greater numbers in some Senior Citizen precincts in Sun City and Sun City West, combined with a mixture of relatively Upper-Income Anglo precincts...

Note the 2nd range down is heavily concentrated in LD-22, which is basically the most Republican LD within CD-08, excepting perhaps LD-01 (Where we saw disproportionate EV Turnout levels covered above)....

So, let's overlap that briefly with the 2016 GE numbers for PRES and Sheriff...

....

Obviously there is a flip side to the equation, which involves the much lower Turnout levels in more heavily Latino precincts among Early Voters, that I previously discussed especially in my LD-21 post, but is equally applicable to LD-04, LD-29, and LD-30, and to some extent parts of LD-20....

There are massive EV turnout gaps in some of the most Latino, Working-Class and heavily Democratic precincts within CD-08....

Look at the EV numbers from the following precincts: Butler, Dysart, Glencroft, Goodyear, and Surprise for example....

We can roll through various other precincts with relatively large Working-Class Latino populations, from places around El Mirage, Goodyear and the Southern precincts of Glendale within CD-08, and we similar patterns....

Sure, this election will be most likely won or lost on how heavily Anglo Seniors, Upper-Income, and Middle-Class voters swing in a special election, but at this point I'm not seeing the turnout from the relatively minor sliver of Working-Class Latino communities yet to indicate the same level of enthusiasm that we saw in the '16 General Election where Donald Trump and Sheriff Joe were both on the ballot....
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: April 28, 2018, 03:55:12 pm »

Now that the overwhelming majority of ballots have been counted in CD-08, excepting an extremely small number of ballots outstanding from active duty service members and Americans living overseas, we have pretty close to a complete picture of the election....

Let's start briefly with a few topics such as turnout and early voting:

1.) Based upon official results, it's looking like overall turnout was about 40.4% of Registered Voters, compared to roughly 49.9% in the 2014 November General Election....

Although this number sounds pretty impressive for a Special Election, it is significantly lower than early voter models had predicted based upon historical data.

2.) It appears that voters in Arizona are increasingly relying on Early Voting, rather than Election Day Voting, as the State increasingly transitions more towards a Vote-by-Mail (VbM) model.

In the 2012 GE roughly 70% of voters cast their ballots through Early Voting here, in 2016 roughly 80% did....

In the 2018 Special Election, roughly 90% of voters cast their ballots early....

3.) This explains some of the discrepancies we have seen in the various polls of the district, where trying to weigh EV vs ED numbers alongside of Party Registration Data becomes a bit problematic.

4.) A relatively low turnout election (By the historical standards of this CD) skewed the electorate heavily Senior, in a CD where Senior Citizens even in normal Presidential GE environments tend to be a pretty hefty chunk of the electorate.

5.) I already touched on EV turnout by Party Registration in previous posts, but what we do know is that EVs represented a much larger share of the total vote compared to RVs in terms of Registered Republicans, as well as to a somewhat lesser extent Registered Democrats, and Registered Independents comprised a much smaller share of the electorate than their Voter Registration status....

Unfortunately, I don't have the final numbers broken down by party registration by EV/ED but as of the official numbers posted Monday, there were 155.7k EV ballots that were cast by registered party ( 27.9 % D, 48.3% R, 23.8% I)....

6.) Considering that 90% of the electorate voted early, the actual Election Day numbers appear to indicate that not only did registered independents that voted swung hard Democrat, but additionally that there was a significant Republican defection as well towards the Centrist Democrat running in this district.

Ok--- now let's look at a few numbers and charts.

Here are the % of Vote Share by Arizona Legislate District (LD), results by LD for the special election, and historical results by LD for precincts located within this CD.



Several things to note here:

1.) LD-22 was disproportionately represented in this special election, accounting for 38.5% of the Vote share in the Special Election...  for historical standards it accounted for 36.6% in the "off-year" 2014 General Election, and only 34.9% in the 2016 General Election, much closer to the 34.1% RV share. Part of this might be explained by the fact that it contains some of the fastest growing exurbs within CD-08.

This is especially significant, as it is the 2nd most Republican LD of CD '08 and voted for Lesko by +10.

2.) Vote share was down, even compared to the 2014 GE in the handful of "Democratic Leaning" LDs (LD-4, LD-29, and LD-30), which although they contain a relatively small share of the total electorate, start to become more significant in a hypothetical close election within the district.

3.) Vote share was significantly down in LD-20, which in previous postings I described as not only a "must win" LD for Dems, but a "must win by double-digits" place.

4.) LD-21 vote share was roughly between '14 GE and '16 GE numbers, which I had described as a "must flip" Dem LD.

Now what interesting patterns stand out from the April 24th results by LD?

1.) Democrats achieved their best numbers ever in recent elections in LD-22.

The swing compared to the 2016 Sheriff Election was higher here than anywhere else within CD-08, and the fact that a "Generic Republican" only won it by +9.5 should obviously be of deep concern to any Republican observer of Arizona politics, as it was a + 32 Romney and + 28 Trump LD and 47% of Registered Voters are Republicans (and close to 50% of the EV).

2.) Other interesting record gains for Democrats are observable in the heavily Upper Middle-Class and educated areas North of Phoenix (LD-01) and Northwest Phoenix (LD-15).

LD-01 has long been a base Republican stronghold with not only a HUGE Republican voter registration edge, but also regularly a +35 to +40 R margin edge, so seeing only a +20 R edge for a 2nd Election (the only previous one was Sheriff Joe) is noteworthy.

LD-15 is an interesting bag.... one the one hand it has the 3rd highest % of Registered Pubs in CD-08, but increasingly appears to be flirting with the Democratic Party... Needless to say, there are plenty of other similar precincts in what is generally considered solidly Republican "North Phoenix".


3.) LD-21 is an interesting beast, and although it appears that this was a Republican HOLD based upon the top-line numbers, what is obscured is that extremely low turnout in heavily "Base Democratic" precincts around El Mirage, and parts of "South Peoria", is the main reason we didn't see a flip here, despite some pretty favorable swings towards the Dems in the more Upper Middle-Class neighborhoods, and to some extent in Sun City as well...

4.) We actually saw a drop in Democratic margins in three LD's compared to the 2016 Sheriff Election (LD-4, LD-29, LD-30)....

These are relatively small LD's (See note above on Vote Share by LD), but still elections are won and lost on the margins, as I frequently like to emphasize....

These areas all have an extremely higher number of Latinos, Younger, and more Working-Class voters...

Democrats would obviously want to see turnout levels in November in these areas be more like 2014 GE numbers (or higher), which is entirely plausible this November considering that Maricopa County residents will be barraged by TV ads for months with all of the competitive elections coming up.

Will be posting shortly with some additional nuggets, now that I have more raw data from the "final" results entered into the Excel Worksheet, just need to run a few formulas, do a bit of compare/contrast, and figure out which themes are the most relevant when examining this election.



Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: April 29, 2018, 06:37:58 pm »

Time to take a look at the Senior Vote in Cd-08....

We know from official AZ data that the average and median age of EV in CD-08 was close to 65 Years old...

In most congressional districts it starts to get tricky trying to examine the Senior Vote since the population is not distributed in a manner where we can examine the Senior Vote in greater detail.

Fortunately when it comes to data analysis, we do have some real data from Arizona, since the district not only reports EV by Age, but additionally we have massive clusters of Senior Only Communities, so at least we can look at the numbers in much more extensive detail than normal, without having to rely solely on Statewide exit polls, etc....

This is not exhaustive of the Senior Vote in CD-08, and essentially is only representative of the heavily Anglo Senior only planned communities, which generally tend to be from more Upper Middle-Class backgrounds, than the Senior electorate at large within the district.

Let's start by looking at the vote share for these Senior Only communities in recent Elections in CD-08...



So here we see these communities represented approximately 25% of the total vote in CD-08 in the April special election and a slightly higher share in the 2014 General Election.

If we look at Presidential Election years, these communities comprised roughly 19% of the vote in 2012, and only 17.2% in 2016 where there was overall higher voter turnout in Maricopa County, much likely caused by the combination of Trump and Sheriff Joe being on the ballot.

It will be interesting to observe if these distributions change in November '18, compared to the Special Election in '18 and GE '14...

Let's break down these communities into three categories Sun City, Sun City West, and Misc Other Planned Senior communities with both a chart and graph for each....

Sun City Historical Voting Chart:



Sun City Historical Voting Graph:



What does this data tell us?

Sun City is obviously pretty solidly Republican (Stating the obvious I know).

The +20% Voter REG edge is a killer here, regardless of 'Pub cross-over votes or heavy REG Indy swings towards the Dems.

Although there were marginal swings at the Presidential Election level between '12 and '16, most of this was a defection from the Pubs towards 3rd Party Voters, and there was only a 0.4% gain for the Dem '16 nominee.

Even in the '16 Sheriff election Sun City voted +16% for "Joe", despite the legal clouds and corruption charges racking up against him.

I posited a few pages back on this thread before the election, that if a Dem were going to make CD-08 a horse-race election, they would need to approach the '14 levels of support for a Democrat achieved by the candidate running for the Arizona Superintendent of Education race...

We saw that happen last week where the 'Pub only won Sun City by slightly less than 10%....

Sun City West Chart:



Sun City West Graph:



What does this data tell us?

Sun City West is even more Republican than Sun City, which kinda makes sense since Sun City first originated in 1960 and Sun City West sometime in the late '70s....

Over 50% of the EV here was cast by REG 'Pubs, and Dems only hit 40% of the Vote once here, during the '14 AZ Sup of Ed race.

We saw a lower increase in the DEM EV Vote Share than in Sun City, and higher IND EV vote share, and 'Pubs still only won by +14% and well outperformed their record 40.3% number from '14, achieving a remarkable 42.9% of the vote here.

Republicans are used to winning Sun City West by roughly 2:1 margins every election....

Let's look at results from the other planned retirement communities in CD-08:

This gets a bit trickier without delving extensively into Census Data, but fortunately for the purpose of this exercise, it's really easy to pinpoint those precincts that are exclusively "Senior Only" communities simply by looking at Turnout levels in off-year elections, and then pulling up the Census Data and finding out whoah  95% of the population is 55+ (etc....).

So here are the precincts that I included in the list of Senior Planned Retirement Communities...

Now a couple of these are obvious, such as Saddle Ridge which is split between Sun City and Peoria, although I didn't code it as "Sun City" and Kodiak split between Sun City West and Surprise.



Here is the chart for the "Other Planned Senior Retirement Precincts"



Here is a graph for the "Other Planned Senior Retirement Precincts:



So what does any of this tell us here?

The "Other" Senior Precincts category shows many similarities with Sun City West, except it has even a lower % of Registered Democrats (21.3%), slightly lower % of Registered Republicans, and a higher % of Registered Indies....

Again, we see a record level of support for a Democratic Candidate, even compared against the 2016 AZ-Sheriff race, and 2014 AZ-Sup of Ed Race....

Final thoughts:

1.) Anglo Senior Citizens in CD-08 swung hard Democrat in a national election, as opposed to relatively more localized elections (Maricopa County Sheriff '16, and AZ-Sup of Ed '14).

2.) Not only did AZ Anglo Seniors swing hard DEM on 4/24/18, but Democrats exceeded the highest benchmarks to date of a Democratic candidate among this population, with '16 Sheriff being a potential outlier because of Sheriff Joe's baggage and '14 AZ Sup of Ed being much more localized affair.

3.) The level of elasticity among the Anglo Senior population of the district exhibited by the Special Election is a bit mind boggling looking at historical election results, and part of the reason why I was generally skeptical about this being anything like PA-18.

4.) The thing that really has Senior 'Pub strategists, AZ 'Pub political leaders, crapping bricks is that this collapse of support happened among what was supposed to be one of their three core legs of the Arizona Republican Party.

In Non-Presidential Election Years (Where most of the Statewide races occur), turnout tends to be much lower among potentially Democratic leaning base voters....

Anglo Seniors account for a disproportionate share of the electorate during those off-year elections and they vote regularly....

Although there appears to be a "Crisis of Confidence" among these Anglo Seniors with the overall direction the Republican Party is taking, it still remains to be seen to what extent this will manifest in the upcoming Arizona Statewide Election contests.

Still, these numbers do not appear good for the Republican Candidate running for Flake's Senate seat in November, and it's entirely plausible that we will see some interesting numbers from similar type precincts come November '18 for the AZ-GOV race not to mention various AZ-LD SEN seats that Dems need to flip in November to take control of the AZ State Senate...
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: May 01, 2018, 11:18:43 pm »

Ok--- let's look at the overall 75% of the electorate in the Special Election that doesn't live in Senior Only Precincts, not that there aren't Seniors living throughout these places....

Here the total numbers thus far break down roughly 67k D (48.7%)- 70.2k R (51.0%)....

Let's start with the places where there was roughly a 25% Democratic Swing between the 2016 Presidential Election and the 2018 Special Congressional Election....

These communities represented roughly 11.2% of the CD-08 Vote in 2018 vs 12.9% in the '16 Pres Election, and 11.6% in the '14 GE....

Here is the raw precinct swing chart....



Now we look at how these precincts voted from '12 to '16....



So again, you have places with roughly a 2:1 Registered Republican Voting Edge, that voted +5% for Sheriff Joe, where typically Republicans will usually win by somewhere in the +30% Margin range, that actually voted to elect a Democrat to represent them in the US House....

Even the Early Vote breakdown disproportionately favors Republicans, where the vast majority of the ballots were cast early.

If we look at the 2014 GE numbers the total raw vote from these precincts was roughly equal to that of the 2018 Special Election....

One could perhaps make an argument that there was a bit of Republican and Republican-Leaning Indy disillusionment in these places, and as I mentioned before the election I was starting to notice a slight bit of turnout gap in the Dem's favor in these types of precincts based on EV numbers.....

Now Turnout gap is obviously not an issue when your electorate is looking +20 % R vs D, and Indies aren't really showing up as much in an off-year election....

There were a ton of "flip voters" in these precincts who voted Trump/Romney, and even some who voted for Sheriff Joe....

Now where are these precincts located?



I'm missing a few in the far Northern part of the CD.... Majesty and Westwing, as well as one in the far Southwest part of the District.... Litchfield because I couldn't snip the CD precinct map and still have the vast majority of precinct names present...

First thing that stands out is the geographical diversity of these massive swing precincts stretching from some of the far Northern Exurbs of Phoenix, to a couple precincts in Northwest Glendale, to some more Centrally located precincts in Peoria, down to the fast growing Exurbs of Surprise, and

So what do these precincts look like from a Social-Demographic perspective?

Let's start with a Median Household Income by Census Tract Map...



So here you a strong overlap between Highest Income populations and largest Democratic swings between the Presidential Election of 2016 and the Arizona 2018 Special Election....

Can't see the dark red precinct in the Southwest since it missed the snip is Litchfield Park, Arizona ("Old Money Republican")....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Litchfield_Park,_Arizona

Now, let's look at the Ethnic population Map by Census Tract in CD-08...

Anglo-American Population:



Latino-American Population:



Asian-American Population:



So what we see here is that these heavy swing precincts are overwhelmingly Anglo in terms of population, and in many of these precincts have a significant Asian-American population, and with the exception of the SW Exurban around Surprise have a relatively low Latino-American population....

VAP numbers are likely significantly lower for the Latino-American population in most of these precincts....

Now, I can follow-up with the 20-25% swing precincts, and we will see the same pattern, although to a slightly lesser extent....

Arizona Republicans appear to have a major Anglo problem, and not just in the in the collapse of support that they saw among Reliably Republican Senior Citizens, but now among the Second Leg of the Arizona Republican coalition, Upper-Income Anglos....

Although this population votes less frequently than Seniors in off-year elections, they swung much harder Democratic than ever before in precincts that voted almost 2:1 Romney in 2012.....

Phoenix we have a problem....

Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: May 04, 2018, 06:05:28 pm »

What about those precincts that swung heavily Democratic between the '16 Presidential Election and '18 CD-08 Special Election?

Here is a list of precincts that swung +20-25% Democratc, and represented roughly 20% of the CD'08 electorate in both 2014 and 2018, and 22% of the CD-08 electorate in 2016.... ( I omitted two "Senior Only" precincts since they were included in that previous breakdown)



Similarly to the +25% Democratic swing precincts, we see a wide geographical dispersion pattern, with Peoria, Glendale, Surprise, and Phoenix/ Uninc North Phoenix all represented.

Let's look at the maps of the District split into the Northern Part of CD- '08 and the numerically larger Central and Southern Part of the district.

Precincts highlighted in RED are +25% D swing '16 GE to '18, those in BLUE are +20-25% D Swing...

Northern CD-08:



Central/Southern CD-08:



Let's go back and look at the Median Household Income (MHI) by Census Tract Map...



So, I outlined three broad areas where MHI runs about $100k/Yr....

This includes broadly (Some Precincts highlighted in BOLD):

1.) Some Unincorporated Areas North of Phoenix (Majesty and Hastings)... Deadman Wash was split into two between '16 and '18, with a new precinct Tramonto created, so although this '16 precinct swung heavily Dem, I did not include on the map.

2.)Northern parts of Glendale/Peoria/Phoenix from Lake Pleasant in the NW going South-by-Southeast through West Wing, Desert Sage, to Creedence and stretching all the way down to Angela and heads back west towards Indian Wells....

3.) A significant cluster of precincts in more of the Central part of Glendale located within the district , and Peoria, essentially crunched between Sun City to the West and Phoenix to the East where you had roughly a dozen precincts that swung 20+% Dem between '16 and '18....

4.) You have that one pocket Litchfield in the SW Portion of CD-08 that I mentioned in my previous post regarding +25% D swing precincts....

5.) Now you have one major cluster of +20/+25 D Swing precincts that is not represented on the MHI Map with high concentrations of +100k/Yr Median Household Income....

These are in the rapidly growing Exurban city of Surprise, Arizona (+220% pop growth 2010 to 2018)...

MHI runs roughly more in the $67k/Yr range, the population tends to skew much younger than CD-08 in general somewhere in the early '40s, still tends to be heavily Anglo.

These types of areas will be especially interesting to watch in the General Election this November and in the 2020 GE as the Exurban share of CD- '08 continues to grow as first time home buyers move further and further out into newer housing developments in the desert and trade more house for lower cost and longer commutes....

Ok---- how what does the voting history of the +20-25% Dem Swing ('16 GE > '18 CD SE) look like?



What do these numbers show from 20-22% of the CD-'08 electorate?

1.) Again we have areas with an overwhelmingly Republican voting history that almost elected a Democrat in a Special Election....

The Registered Voter Numbers (24 D- 44 R- 32 I) tend to be closer to the RV numbers in CD-08 than the Senior Citizen Precincts and the +25% D Swing precincts....

2.) Once again there were gains on the margins for the '18 Dem candidate (48-51 R) compared to the '16 Sheriff numbers (47-53 R)....

3.) If we do a compare/contrast for the +25% Dem swing precincts vs the +20-25% Dem swing precincts, the +20-25% D Swing precincts actually tend to vote slightly more Democratic than the +25% Dem swing precincts, but in the Special Election that was not the case....

The obvious variance between the two is that Independents voted at a lower level in the +20% Swing Precincts in the '18 Special Election, AND the DEMs did slightly worse in reducing the EV DEM/REP voter gap in the former....

Without doing an exhaustive study comparing the +20% vs +25% Dem swing precincts, it appears that the turnout levels in the former was a bit more favorable to the Democrats than the latter, but regardless overall +20% swing precincts accounted for a whopping 30% of the AZ CD-08 SE vote.

Some of this might possibly be related to variations in age and education differentials on the margins, combined with a bit of statistical "noise", but regardless we can see that turnout differentials were slightly less worse for 'Pubs here than in the HUGE swing precincts....

Ok--- before I finish this, there are a few more items to examine....

Here is a chart that shows the precinct level results by Party for the '18 SE and '16 PRES and '16 Sheriff Election, as well as the Early Voting partisan gap compared to the PEVL (Pre-Approved Early Voting List) numbers....

This gives us an idea of to what extent the turnout enthusiasm gap may have played a role in the EV numbers, which were obviously an overwhelming majority of the votes cast in this election....



So on the Left side of the chart I randomly chose Blue for some reason rather than Red (Atlas faux pas) to code DEM/REP EV turnout gaps.... basically which Party was turning out a greater number of their base voters than the other, and essentially leaving the Indy vote to the sidelines....

What do these numbers tell us?

1.) Democrats overall were much better than Republicans in getting their Early Voters to turnout, despite the last minute RNC GOTV drive....

2.) Although generally the Democratic candidate in the Special Election outperformed the Democratic Candidate running for Maricopa County Sheriff against "Sheriff Joe", it is notable that there were a relatively small number of precincts where the Dem CD-08 candidate under-performed....

Earlier in the thread I had posited that since we didn't have any real example of a potential Democratic precinct level win model in this district, the best we could do for precinct modeling would be look that the '16 Sheriff Election, and to a lesser extent the '14 Arizona Superintendent of Education Election as potential narrow routes towards a Democratic WIN in this district.

3.) Interestingly enough we don't really see the PEVL gap being the major correlation between election results in CD-08 4/24....

It looks more like a mixture of improvement on Sheriff Joe election numbers for the DEM in certain precincts, combined with a larger collapse among Trump levels of support in many of these precincts even where the Lesko out-performed Sheriff Joe....

4.) The more I look at the data, it really is starting to look like the Democratic candidate won some 65% of Registered Independents that voted, as opposed to my "High-Dem" Model of 60-40 D....

I am still extremely skeptical about any polling numbers and discussions about how 15-17% of Registered Republicans voted Democrat in this election, since we really don't have any precinct data to indicate that by Party Registration....

What I *suspect* might be the case is that these polling questions asked about Party Identification and not Party Registration.

As all of us regular Atlas Election Geeks well know Registered Independents frequently tend to lean heavily one way or the other when it comes to their voting history....

*IF* Dem's are winning 2:1 among Registered Indies in a CD where typically Dems barely break 50-50 or 53-47, 'Pub Phoenix has a massive Anglo problem....

Gotta take a break from the project, but will need to check '12 > '16 GE PRES swings for these precincts at some point.... Wink





Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: May 05, 2018, 12:05:04 am »

Now let's shift gears and move towards the other side of the deck.... precincts where there was a '16 to '18 Dem Swing of less than 10%, and in a couple cases a reverse swing towards the Republican CD-08 candidate....

These precincts accounted for the vote share in CD-08:

Registered Voters: 9.9%
2018 Special Election: 7.1% of Total Vote
2016 General Election: 8.7% of CD-08 Total Vote
2014 General Election: 7.5% of Total Vote

Here's the list of precincts in CD '08 that had the lowest Democratic Swing between '16 PRES GE and '18 CD Special Election:



Here is how they voted in recent years (Filtered out Deadmanwash for reasons cited in my previous post)....



In theory these should be overwhelmingly Democratic Precincts compared to the RV numbers, Trump only narrowly won here (45-47 R), Sheriff Joe went down hard (56-44 D), the Dem Candidate for US SEN won in '12 (49-45 D), etc....

Reality is that in non-Presidential Year elections, these precincts start to become much more Republican as a result of turnout numbers among Registered Democrats and Indies....

Ok... here is the map of low Dem swing precincts in '18 compared to the '16 GE...



There a couple "Senior Only" precincts accidentally included in the final vote tally chart, Happy Trails, St Christopher and Lakeview (Sun City), that will move the numbers around a bit on the margins, but my fundamental point below still stands...

Let's look at the Latino Population of the District by US Census Tract...



So here we see the two precincts that swung Republican between '16 and '18 (Goodyear and San Miguel) both have fairly large Latino populations....

We also observe areas around the "Latino Belt" of CD-08 that runs South from Old Town Surprise down through El Mirage, and sweeps around to the SE portions of the district into "South Peoria" and into adjacent portions of Glendale....

El Mirage was featured in the seminal book: "The Patchwork Nation" published about eight years back as a key example of the "Immigration Nation" segment of Americana and voting habits...

http://www.patchworknation.org/Immigration-Nation



Although this district is not significantly Latino in terms of overall population, it is even much less so in terms of VAP and RVs, and Working-Class Latinos tend to vote less frequently in this part of the US in Non-Presidential Year elections....

Flake lost these precincts by + 1k Dem Total Votes in '12. the AZ Sup of Ed narrowly won by 100 Votes in 2014, Trump narrowly won these precincts by 450 votes in '16 (Inclusive of Senior Precincts), and Sheriff Joe lost by a huge 3.5k Votes in '16....

Hiral narrowly won these precincts by 500 votes in the Special Election, although voter turnout was only about 50% of 2016 numbers (Electorate much more Anglo and Middle-Class Latino and very few Working-Class Latino voters)...

Still, there are tons of places like this in Maricopa County, and with so many key elections on the line in Arizona in November 2018, the Special Election results from CD-08 thus far don't appear to indicate a massive Latino surge come November in Arizona...

This could easily change with extremely competitive US-SEN, AZ-GOV, races on the line not to mention pretty much all Statewide elections, and various Congressional Elections....

Still, despite the Republican Party's Maricopa County Anglo problem, the Democratic Party is facing an off-year election "Latino Problem" thus far when it comes to voter turnout and enthusiasm...

If Sheriff Joe is on the ballot as the Republican running in a GE to capture Flake's seat, this obviously won't be a problem, considering the massive Voter Registration Drives and grassroots organizing that happened in '16 against the racist a**hole.

Democrats can obviously win Arizona Statewide elections regardless of massive Latino turnout as results from CD-08 demonstrated in an off-year special election gig, but still votes are earned and not granted, AND without a significantly higher Latino turnout in the '18 AZ GE, numbers start to become much more complicated for Dems, regardless of whatever happens in the Nov '18 CD-08 rematch....




Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: May 19, 2018, 01:37:40 am »
« Edited: May 19, 2018, 04:51:37 pm by NOVA Green »

Now that we have most of the Oregon Election results in for the 5/'15 Primary, time to take a brief look at the Macro Level data....

Let's start with the total population of Registered Voters by County in the last reporting period prior to the 2018 Oregon Primary....

Light Gray= Counties that account for 0.0% - 0.5% of the Total Registered Voters within Oregon
Dark Gray = Counties that account for 0.6 % to 1.0 % of the Total Registered Voters in Oregon
Other colors are shaded and identified as a % of the total Statewide Registered Voting Population.



So the three main Counties of Metro- Portland (Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas) account for roughly 43% of RVs within Oregon.

As I noted previously I do not consider Yamhill and Columbia Counties to be primarily Metro Portland, despite a few heavily exurban communities located on the fringes of Metro-PDX, because the predominant population in these counties do not consist of Metro-PDX commuters.

"Downstate Oregon" accounts for roughly 57% of the RVs within Oregon, and is essentially the reason why occasionally Oregon is still competitive for Statewide Elections, despite being overwhelmingly Democratic at the Federal Level....

Where are the respective Registered Democratic and Republican voting bases located at within Oregon?

Registered Democrats as % off total Party Vote Share by County:



Here we see that roughly 53% of Registered Democrats are located within the three counties of Metro Portland....

We see a couple decent chunks in Oregon's 2nd Congressional District (Jackson and Deschutes Counties), which account for about 9 % of Registered Dems in Oregon....

Mid Valley accounts for about 18 % of Registered Dems (Marion, Linn, Benton, Yamhill, and Polk....

Lane County (Eugene-Springfield) alone accounts for 9.4% of Registered Democrats, which forms the rump of OR CD-04, while Southwest Oregon (Douglas, Coos, Curry, and Josephine) account for only about 8% of Registered Democrats collectively....

Registered Republicans as % of Total Vote Share by County:



So here we see how truly marginalized the state of the current Oregon Republican Party is...

1.) About 32.7% of Registered Republicans reside in the three Counties of Metro Portland....

2.) About 21% reside in the Mid-Willamette Valley Counties, which used to be the traditional "swing district" part of Oregon and heavily located in CD-05, with the Cities of Albany and Corvallis carved into CD-04 after redistricting in 2010 to balance out the population growth from Metro-Portland and Mid-Valley to add additional population into OR CD-04....

3.) Lane County give the 'Pubs 8.5% of their total RV Share, heavily concentrated in rural and small town parts of the County, not to mention a decent chunk of voters from Metro Eugene-Springfield.

4.) SW Oregon accounts for close to 10% of the total 'Pub Vote Share in Oregon, thanks to the Oregon Republican Party swapping the 'Burbs of Portland in an attempt to make to play for Timber Country during the "Jobs vs Environment" BS angle from the 1990s....

5.) Jackson and Deschutes Counties alone account for close to 13% of the RV Republican Vote Share by County, which creates major issues for the Oregon Republican Party and brand considering these counties are increasingly trending a bit purple as a result of changing demographics and retirees from California and elsewhere relocating to these Counties that tend to be much more Liberal on Social and Environmental issues ....

The Oregon Republican Party is increasingly becoming a "rump party" dominated by an internal echo chamber making it extremely difficult to sell a comprehensive brand to a statewide audience, even for Statewide level elections, where they used to be competitive regardless of whatever was happening within the National political environment....

Oregon is a closed primary State--- Indies can't vote for any partisan primary.... So what happens when we look at the vote share by County by Party for the May 2018 Primaries?

Democratic Party Vote Share for Gubernatorial Election:



Oregon really didn't have very many competitive Democratic Party elections, so overall Democratic Primary turnout was a bit lower than average for an off-year election, so vote share distribution dropped a bit in Metro Portland and increased overall in most of "downstate Oregon"....

I used the Gubernatorial Democratic and Republican Primary numbers as a measurement to compare against overall RV numbers by party.

Where were the Democratic Primary Votes concentrated?....

1.) We see Metro-PDX drop to only 46.5% of Registered Democrats

2.) Mid-Valley 15.4% of Dem Primary Voters

3.) Lane County jumps to 11.8% of Dem Primary Voters

4.) SW Oregon roughly 6.0% of Dem Primary Voters

5.) Jackson/Deschutes bop up to about 10% of Dem Primary Voters

This is not bad news at all for Oregon Democrats, considering the majority of the targeted Oregon State Senate & House Districts targeted in Nov '18 for a Democratic Party "Super-Majority" in the State Legislature are in Downstate Oregon...

Where were the Republican Party Primary Voters located?



1.) Metro PDX--- Almost 26% of the 'Pub Vote located here....

Massive drop from the 33% of their RV Vote Share, which obviously creates some major questions and issues as to the future of the Republican Party for Statewide Elections, considering this is a part of the State, where even traditionally Republican leaning suburbs and exurbs are starting to skew heavily Democrat, well before Trump became the National standard bearer of the Republican Party.

2.) Mid-Valley--- About 21% of the 'Pub Vote located here...

Holds steady for Party Vote Share by Region

3.) Lane County-- 8.6 % 'Pub Vote Share by County

 Holds steady for Party Vote Share by Region

4.) SW Oregon--- 13% of the 'Pub Vote Share....

Here's a chunk of the Republican Vote Share caused by the drop-off from Metro PDX

5.) Jackson/Deschutes--- 13.7% of the 'Pub Vote Share....

Increased numbers for 'Pubs as a share of their total vote share in some relatively fast growing "Minor Metro" Areas...

6.) Lion Share of the 'Pub increased Primary Vote Share came from heavily rural and small town areas in Eastern Oregon, as well as some numbers from NW Coastal Oregon....

Much of this information might well be completely irrelevant if one attempts to look the Oregon Primary Election and attempt to model for November '18 results considering the extremely high number of registered Independents and 3rd Party Candidates in Oregon.

Current Oregon Voter registration numbers show Registration by Party as being roughly 36% Registered Democrat, 26 % Registered Republican, and 38% Registered Independent / Other.

Still a +260k Dem RV edge is nothing to sneeze at in a relatively low population State such as Oregon with 2.684k RVs, where AVR and VBM have massively increased voter registration as % of the VAP...

This is worthy of a completely separate post, since AVR is a completely new phenomenon and has caused a major collapse in both Democratic and Republican Party Registration in Oregon alike, since the default voter registration is NAV, and most new voters don't really bother to tinker about with their voter registration until their are some major partisan primaries going on, most likely to occur in 2020 as a PRES GE year...

Now to briefly discuss the Oregon Gubernatorial Primary Elections:

1.) Kate Brown as expected performed extremely well among Registered Democrats....

There are definitely some warning signs from both the Left and Right wings of the Democratic Party if we take a brief peek at some of the County level results....

From the "Right" DINO wing of the Democratic Party you have this Ed Jones Bloke:

https://www.edjonesforgovernor.com/platform

He basically ran on a Republican platform, but managed to bag a huge chunk of Democratic Primary voters.... (8.5 %)

He hit about 20% of Democratic Primary Voters in a wide variety of Counties in Oregon, including some major populated centers such as Douglas, Linn not to mention 15+% some smaller counties throughout the State from Baker, Columbia , Coos, Crook, Umatilla, etc...

Many of these Registered Democrats will typically vote Democrat for Federal Elections and sometimes Democrat for Statewide Elections, but are voting in protest against where they see the direction of their Party going at the statewide level on issues such as Gun Reform, LGBT Equality, decriminalization of hard drugs in Oregon, and some of the other statewide programs that Kate Brown has successfully passed into law in her brief two year term as Governor.

From the Left, we have Candace Neville, who I might have considered voting for had we not had the most Progressive Democratic Governor ever in Oregon History.

Candace still managed to capture 7.3% of the Oregon GOV PRIM vote, although we don't really see a major Geographical variance in her vote distribution, with the exception of over-performing in the most heavily rural counties in the State.

I strongly suspect that most of the Neville voters will fall in line in November, with some minor defections to the Green or Working Family Party candidates for OR-GOV.

2.) I don't really have a decent take on the mindset of Republican Primary voters that went for Carpenter or Woolridge, but I strongly suspect that the vast majority of the Trumpistas and Evangelical Fundi's will fall in line behind Buehler, despite their major issues with an "establishment 'Pub" nominee since the vast majority literally despite Kate Brown to a level that we rarely see towards Democratic Governors of Oregon....

More to come....
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,816
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: May 19, 2018, 10:01:14 pm »

Ok---- now that we've talked a bit and reviewed the data on relative DEM/REP Registered Voters by County and looked at the 2018 Primary DEM/REP Vote Share by County, time to take a look at the TWO Party May '18 RV numbers vs the May '18 OR-GOV numbers to do a compare and contrast, since even if Indies split 50-50 in the November GE, Dems hold a +16% lead over Pubs among Registered Voters, and a +12% lead over 'Pubs among Primary Democratic/Republican voters....

MAY 2018: Registered Voters as a % of combined TWO Party Votes (DEM/REP)



So right here, in theory, this map should be absolutely terrifying for Republicans, especially considering the DEM % of RVs dropped between '16 and '18, as many people switched from Registered NAV / 3rd Party in order to vote in the '16 DEM PRES Primaries, and switched their REG back to IND/OTHER.

I mean if hypothetically in a "Wave Election" Indies vote 60-40 Dem in Oregon in 2018, not only will we see Kate Brown win comfortably by mid double digits, but additionally the Oregon State Legislature will be Ironclad Democratic with a Super-Majority that overcomes many of the restrictions of revenue generation in the form of changing taxation policy in a direction where Big Business and extremely High Income individuals might have to cough up a few extra bucks to pay their fair share towards education, infrastructure, and social services....

Although OR CD-02 is not in play in 2018, I would not be surprised to see some significant swings in the two largest population centers within the district (Jackson and Deschutes Counties) where Republicans only narrowly hold a lead in terms of TWO Party voter registration.

Now, we do have some Ancestral Democratic voting populations in places like Coos, Tillamook, Columbia, and Wasco that obviously stand out, and I would argue that although the map obscures it Linn County as well to some extent....

OK--- What was the TWO PARTY OR breakdown for the May Primary look like by County?Huh

I'll spare your eyeballs on this one and not code counties by color on this map, since the map that I used in MS Paint in previous posts hasn't worked as well as I would like....



So on the surface, again this map looks extremely positive for Democrats, especially considering that there extremely competitive Republican Primaries to challenge incumbent Democrats for a wide variety of races from OR-GOV, to OR-US-HOUSE, etc.... and on the Dem side we didn't have any real competitive primaries, other than a few races here and there for OR State SEN/HOUSE legislative districts to challenge incumbent 'Pubs....

Now what does the map look like if we take the May 2018 Two Party Margins among Registered DEMs/Pubs and contrast against the total May 2018 OR-GOV Primary Two Party numbers by County???



So we start to see an extremely interesting looking map, especially considering that there weren't really very many competitive Democratic Primaries in Oregon, compared to a huge number of competitive Republican Primary contests....

A few key items to note:

1.) Democratic Primary voters exceeded their Registered Voter numbers by +2.5% in the largest County and most reliable Democratic stronghold in Oregon.... Multnomah County

2.) We also see even more massive RV vs OR-GOV Two Party numbers in Benton and Clatsop Counties.

Although both are to various degrees Democratic strongholds. Clatsop County has a significant number of both retirees and Ancestral Democrats, along with a Regional Community College in Astoria. Benton County is heavily a University County, combined with a fairly educated population that works in the Tech Sector (HP), as well as massive regional Hospital that provides some of the highest quality Medical Services in Oregon outside of Metro Portland (OHSU)....

3.) Look carefully at the map along the Oregon Coast which is heavily retiree communities, and we see Dem margins doing extremely well, not only in the more Democratic Leaning retiree communities in the Oregon Coast, but even in more Republican leaning retiree communities along the Southern Oregon Coast (Coos County and Curry County)

4.) Obviously the +1.3% Dem margins in Lane County compared to RVs stands out as well, especially considering it is the major "anchor County" of OR-CD-04....

5.) Jackson County really stands out here (+0.8% Dem), considering that it increasingly looks like not only a "Flip County" but a "Flip Hard County" if the Oregon Republican Party AND the National Republican Party continues down their current trajectory....

Will need to further examine precinct level results here to see to what extent these changes are happening in Medford vs Rural Areas, and to what extent potentially high Dem turnout in Ashland and surrounding areas might be impacting these numbers.

6.) In the Portland Suburbs of Washington and Clackamas Counties we see some marginal 'Pub gains looking at RV numbers vs OR-GOV numbers by Party.

This is NOT an unexpected phenomemon considering the character and composition of the Democratic electorate in a non-competitive off-year Primary....

What is remarkable is how close these off-year primary numbers were compared to what we would normally expect historically speaking.

7.) We see significantly higher 'Pub RV vs GOV numbers in the Mid-Valley, which as I have stated before is the heartlands of the Evangelical Christian segment of the Republican electoral base.

Additionally, these same counties have some of the highest % of Latinos that are American Citizens compared to most parts of Oregon (Many Counties in Eastern Oregon have an extremely high % of Latinos that are "Guestworkers" in the farms, ranches, and agricultural processing plants in places from Umatilla to Malheur Counties).

Working-Class Latinos in Oregon tend to be more less likely to vote in off-year elections, just like in places like Texas and Arizona, especially when it comes to primary elections....

8.) SW-Oregon.... Josephine and Douglas Counties have long been the bedrock of Republican voters within Southern Oregon.... the former went for Goldwater in '64 and I don't believe has voted for a Democratic President since maybe once or twice for FDR...

There are no Timber mills left in Josephine County, in what used to be a major Timber Mill city in Oregon, where now "The Gut" a massive sprawling series of Mills has now been turned into shopping centers and discount food and apparel...

Grant's Pass accounts for a HUGE chunk of Total Voters within Josephine County and in the past few decades has transitioned from a Working-Class Republican Mill town to a retiree town.

Josephine County is probably the only place in Oregon where Democrats perform better in rural areas than the largest population center within the County.

Douglas County was ground zero in the Oregon "Timber Wars" of the late '80s to the present day...

It's a bit more of a Trip considering that it was only (47-53 R) in '88 and is now essentially the most Republican County in Oregon West of the Cascades.

There is still plenty of Timber to be logged, even without dipping into Old Growth in the National Forests of Douglas County....

There are still Timber Mills active in Roseburg, and other parts of the County, although the old Oregon Mantra goes: "Douglas County is where they harvest the Timber, and Lane County is where they Mill the Timber"

Still, this is a County where unemployment rates spike through the roof every time there is a National Recession and collapses of the Housing Market....

Can't remember offhand the exact numbers, but during the Bush Jr recession, thinking the unemployment rate spiked at something like 17% in '09....

9.) Deschutes County numbers look good for 'Pubs.... Turned out in high numbers to vote for the ("Moderate 'Pub) as opposed to the 'Fundi or the Trumpista candidate for OR-GOV.

10.) In the heavily Latino portions of Eastern Oregon (Morrow and Umatilla Counties) we see some of the greatest increases for the 'Pubs compared to the RV numbers for the Primary Election...

One could likely make an argument that Crook and Jefferson Counties were similarly impacted by low voter turnout among Latinos/ Native Americans...

More to come.....
Logged
FairBol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,580
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: June 05, 2018, 03:37:43 pm »

This is cool! Any analysis on how things might play out in CT?
Logged
FairBol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,580
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: June 05, 2018, 03:39:12 pm »

And I have to ask, where do you get all your stats from?
Logged
FairBol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,580
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: June 05, 2018, 06:53:02 pm »

So....I'm working on some analysis of the voting situation in CT.  This is going to take a while, but....here's a look at registered voters in Fairfield County, by party. 



As you can see, most voters in Fairfield County have no party affiliation (NPA).  Of voters that do have an affiliation, Democrats outnumber Republicans, 35-24.  As far as the "minor parties" go (Green, Libertarian, and a couple of others), about one percent of registered voters are Independents. 

More data and analysis of the seven other Connecticut counties coming soon. 
Logged
FairBol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,580
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: June 06, 2018, 12:14:28 pm »

A quick look at the numbers in Hartford County.  I'll post an explanation of this chart soon. 

Logged
FairBol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,580
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: June 06, 2018, 12:20:29 pm »

Briefly, the percentages in Hartford County are 41.8 Democratic, 18.2 GOP, 1.8 Independent, and 38.2 NPA. 
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC