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  NOVA GREEN's Election Analysis Thread
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #75 on: September 23, 2018, 05:01:05 pm »

Coos County, NH is the poorest County in NH with an MHI of $ 40.3k /Yr, 16.1% of the Population living in poverty, and the largest % of the population on Food Stamps, and the lowest % of employment of working-aged Males in the State (64.7%)

Of the single poorest County by State, it had the largest swing towards the Republican Presidential candidate between 2012 > 2016, with a whopping +27% R swing.

Here's a link to a thread that I started on how the poorest Counties in each state voted between '12 . '16

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267947.msg5743056#msg5743056

One thing that obviously stands out here is the extremely large French / French-Canadian population (40% by Ancestry) and much lower proportions of English and Irish by Ancestry.

In general, poverty in the three Northern States of New England (VT,NH, and ME) were most pronounced within those counties and communities with high numbers of French / French-Canadians, as well as massive swings towards Trump in '16.

If we look at the age of the residents, we see approximately 22% of the entire population in Coos County was 65+, and 39% 55+, which makes it significantly older than most other Counties in NH.

The largest Industries are Health Care, Retail, and Hospitality, which combined account for 42% of the work-force, and with the exception of the former, tend to skew towards relatively low paid service sector jobs.

The educational profile of the County of those 25+/Yrs (28.3% Degree > HS Diploma, 59.6% HS Diploma, 12.1% No HS diploma) place it as having a much lower educational attainment rate than NH at large.

The economic challenges to the "North Country" part of NH are steep, as the once influential pulp and paper industries have collapsed in recent years leaving behind a much smaller pool of decent paying jobs.



https://stateimpact.npr.org/new-hampshire/tag/north-country/

https://www.berlinnh.gov/sites/berlinnh/files/uploads/economic_development.pdf

Given the citys long relationship with the wood and paper
processing industry, the closure of the Fraser Pulp Mill in Berlin and the subsequent
ripple through other sectors largely contributed to a loss of 1,120 private sector jobs,
including 970 goods producing and 150 service-related jobs, over ten years.


http://www.gorhamnh.org/Pages/GorhamNH_Selectmen/Chapters/8.pdf

So, to go back to your original question(s):

How would you characterize the people of Cos County? Are they liberal or more conservative. Why do the love Trump and Paul so much?

1.) I would characterize the people of Coos County as economically liberal, but protectionist at the same time. Socially a bit more conservative than NH as a whole (High Catholic population), fairly rural / small-town dominated, with significant outdoors activity tied to hunting and fishing, foreign policy fairly isolationist / non-interventionist.

2.) Trump's popularity has less to do with his character I suspect, and more to do with the fundamental economic conditions of the County, and his promises to crack down on unfair foreign trade competition. The themes and frequent references to the paper and pulp industry and Canadian competition strongly resonate in these types of communities, as they do in many communities in Oregon that have also seen a significant loss of jobs directly as a result of competition from Canada (Saw Mill jobs lost from significant growth in Canadian processed timber importation) and (pulp mill jobs lost from exportation and re-importation of paper products produced in China from raw logs exported out from Oregon).

Much of the reason for this was the Great Recession, which changed global trade patterns within the pulp/paper and processed timber sector, to the significant detriment of places like Coos County, NH.

I strongly suspect that Trump will fail to deliver on his promises to the Mill Workers in these communities, and we will likely see a correction back to support for the Democratic Party possibly in 2020, and if not then almost certainly in 2024.






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NOVA Green
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« Reply #76 on: September 23, 2018, 05:03:33 pm »


Ugh, that's a very lengthy disquisition.
So basically you're saying, it is such a populist county due to its poorness and their remoteness that its inhabitants want to express their anti-mainstream attitude by giving their vote to "alternative" candidates?

Not exactly what I was saying at all, but still you're getting closer to where I was going with this:

1.) We have communities like this across the United States of America

2.) Systematic poverty is partially a result of massive economic dislocation caused as a direct result of the "Great Recession" in recent years, and even previously as a "peripheral" part of the US economic structure for decades under various political Administrations in both DC and within NH.

3.) The alienation that many locals feel is exacerbated by decades of systematic discrimination against French / French-Canadians in both New England and within Canada as well, partially as a result of religious affiliation, but more broadly as a result of WASP dominance of the political and economic structure of the region.

It's a complicated history in Canada, let alone a much less studied history in heavily French / French-Canadian regions of Northern New England.

https://www.amazon.com/Prelude-Quebecs-Quiet-Revolution-Neo-Nationalism/dp/0773504249

4.) The collapse of the Pulp and Paper industry in places such as Northern Maine (CD-02) and Coos County, NH created a massive need for solutions to deal with what was essentially a complete destruction of the largest traditional economic base of the region.

When the Frasier Mill closed down, it completely devastated an entire small rural community (Coos County), and most of the job losses were directly attributed to unfair trade competition from Canada.

5.) Trump rolls in and suddenly plays on the job losses in pulp and paper mills, as well as Timber imports from Canada, to appeal to workers in the Industry in Northern New England, Northern Midwest, and the Pacific Northwest....

6.) Where was HRC on this topic?Huh

Essentially the Dem PRES nominee in '16 ceded ground to the Trumpistas on the "Trade War" topics in peripheral communities destroyed by decades of Neo-Liberal economics going back to Reagan > Bush Sr > Bill Clinton > Bush Jr > Obama (Huh) and now.....Huh?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #77 on: September 23, 2018, 05:06:53 pm »

So, politicalmasta PM'd me a week or so back asking if I was interested in taking a look at TX CD-23....

Told him I would consider taking a look at it, but wasn't sure how well my usual style of analysis would translate into a low-turnout "off-year" election in Texas, let alone being able to look at detailed precinct level analysis overlapped with Demographics, etc....

However, what caught my attention is that this district was basically designed to be a "swing district" despite the TX 'Pub Gerrymandering of the Lone Star State way back in '10 > '13, and although there are quite possibly a few other Texas CDs that will likely flip before CD-23 in '18, based upon patterns we observed in '16, the reality it is still very much a flip district with an extremely large Latino VAP, despite traditionally low turnout levels among Texans in general, and Tejanos in particular....

Let's start with the vote share by County.... instead of doing my typical NOVA GREEN deal where I use PRES or GOV numbers, instead I decided to focus initially on votes for Congressional Representation, considering a general significant drop-off in support for down-ballot Democrats within this district.

Vote Share by County in CD-23:

2016:



2014:



2012:



Ok--- fun charts---- what does all this mean???

Obviously Bexar County represents roughly slightly under 50% of the County Vote Share in CD-23 from '12 > '16.

El Paso County runs from 6-9% of County Vote Share '12> '16

Medina and Val Verde counties are pretty much ~ 8% in the former and 6% in the latter....

Maverick County runs about 5-6%.

Cool--- now let's look at the vote share trends so we can see overall shifts from '12 > '16 for US House Elections.



So here we see that Bexar Counties vote share has been steadily increasing from '12 > '16.... 

It certainly makes sense considering the massive population growth in Metro SA (San Antonio) compared to most other parts of the district....

El Paso County part of the CD-23 is fascinating, since it appears that it represents a much higher % of the CD Vote share in Presidential Election Years (7.6% in 2012, 6.0% in 2014, and 9.0% in 2016 (!!!)   )

Now, let's look at it from another perspective:

What are the RAW VOTE MARGINS by County for CD-23 Elections from '12 > '16?Huh



So here we see how Republican the portions of Bexar County are and have historically been in CD-23 from '12 > '16.

Ok--- fine, let's take a look at '12 > '16 vote margins and swings in the largest Counties within TX- CD-23 at the Congressional Level.....



It's a pretty confusing chart/graph for anyone that hasn't been following my train of thought here, but bottom line we see a negative swing towards the DEM candidate for CD-23 in most the largest Counties in CD-23, with the exception of Bexar and El Paso Counties....

I'll be posting a lot more data as I shift through these numbers, going down to precinct level analysis, compare / contrast with PRES '12 / '16 numbers, US SEN '12, etc....

One of the questions that I was asked, was do I believe that Gina Ortiz-Jones might be able to mobilize enough support in certain parts of SouthTex considering her Sexual Orientation, despite her military background, and I strongly suspect that this is essentially a non-issue for the overwhelming majority of Latino and Anglo voters in CD-23....

Si se Puede....


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« Reply #78 on: September 23, 2018, 05:10:01 pm »

Ok--- So started to delve a bit deeper into the Bexar County numbers, since after all it accounts for not only close to 50% of the Vote Share of the County (As well as an increasing chunk of vote share from '12/'14/'16, but also is essentially the "breadbasket" of Republican votes within TX CD-23 at the Congressional Level....

Let's take a slight walk and look at an historical compare/contrast between US-PRES vs US-REP results within Bexar County precincts located within CD-23 to see what the Tea Leaves show....

Here are the 2012 to 2016 Votes for US President by Political Party:



Now let's look at the US-PRES Vote '12 > '16 by Place as a % of Partisan Votes...



Very interesting...

We see an overall +11.4% D swing at the Presidential level ('12 >'16) within the precincts of CD-23 in Bexar County, with a +10.9% D Swing within the precincts of San Antonio and +14.2% in the smaller portion of CD-23 located elsewhere.

Romney won the SA portions of Bexar by +6 % R in '12 and Trump lost it by 5% in '16.
Romney won the "Non-SA" portions of Bexar by 26% in '12 and  Trump only won them by 12% in '16.

Meanwhile we had a significant increase of "New Voters" between the '12 and '16 Presidential Elections in the CD-23 portions of Bexar County, and this is how they voted...



If we look at it from another perspective, we see the % changes when we take the entire vote change by place within CD-23 portions of Bexar County from these "New Voters", in the fastest growing VAP and Vote Share region of the Congressional District...



So, when we examine the largest chunk of voters in the CD-23 portion of Bexar County, we see the HRC capturing ~ 72% of the New Voters in San Antonio, and in Non-SA voters at 55-28 D...

Still, the largest swings between '12 > '16 for US-PRES happened in the CD-23 parts of Bexar County that are growing much faster in terms of overall population compared to San Antonio....

The 23% of "New Voters" supporting 3rd Party Candidates is astounding, SA (32% Other) even in the Non-SA areas of Bexar County, not to mention HRC bagging (55 D-29 R- 17 Other).

Something tells me many of these "new voters" in Bexar County that voted "other" are not inherently predisposed to vote Republican in November '18 at any level.

Now we need to take a look at US-PRES vs US-REP numbers in '12/'16 to do a slight compare/contrast model....

Here are the Raw Vote Comparison Numbers:



Here are the numbers looking the "Vote Gap" as a % of US PRES vs US REP numbers in '12 and '16...



Interestingly enough, we saw a dramatic collapse of support for the DEM candidate for TX CD-23 between '12 and '16, especially compared to US-PRES numbers, at a time where this portion of Bexar County was swinging "Hard DEM" at the PRES level....

The key question is how will many of these Republican leaning voters in precincts of Bexar County CD-23 swing in 2018???

Many of y'all might suspect that this was a "Latino Surge" vote gap in these precincts, but I looked at the raw Total Vote (TV) numbers, and it doesn't appear that voter drop-off was unusual at all when comparing Presidential Elections ('12 > '16) in terms of down-ballot drop-off.

What does appear to be the reality is that many voters that supported the DEM CD-23 candidate in '12 decided to switch sides and vote PUB CD-23 in '16 for whatever reason....

How will it play come November in Anglo suburban parts of Texas, where we are starting to see some interesting polling numbers come out, combined with a marquis election for US-SEN with a Beto vs Cruz wrestling match???

I suspect that Bexar County CD-23 '18 numbers might well be closer to '16/'14 numbers, and most significantly much of the benefit will accrue in favor of the Democratic Candidates for US-SEN and TX-CD 23.

Next Stop, more detailed look at political demographics and precincts of Bexar County, classic NOVA Green style....




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NOVA Green
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« Reply #79 on: September 23, 2018, 05:12:13 pm »

Time to delve a little deeper into the CD-23 portions of Bexar County, but first a brief recap of the data already presented:

1.) Bexar County accounts for ~ 50% of the Vote Share in CD-23, and is a fast-growing part of the District in terms of overall % of Vote Share.

2.) It is the most consistently Republican population center of the district, and one of the only places where there was a net swing towards the DEM CD-23 Candidate between '14 and '16.

3.) At a Presidential Level, there were significant swings towards the Democratic Candidate between '12 and '16 (+11.4%).

4.) "New Voters" between '12 and '16 at the Presidential level voted overwhelmingly Democratic.

5.) There tends to be a significant "Vote Gap" between the performance of Democrats for US-House CD- '23 vs US Pres results (Most visible in 2016).

OK--- Now it's time to look at a few other items for Bexar County CD-23....

First, let's start by taking a deeper look at the Congressional Elections between '12 and '16.



So what this tells us is that even though there was a visible swing towards the Democratic Candidate for CD-23 between '14 and '16, it was much less than the swing towards the Republican Candidate between '12 and '14.

In a Non-Presidential Election Year, such as 2018 this is obviously significant...

Now let's look at this from another perspective:

What can we ascertain from the changes in total votes for Presidential/US Senate Races by Party, using the 2014 Congressional Election as a baseline "controlled variable"?

The goal here is to look at:

1.) Drop-Off in Total Votes by Party between '12/'14/'16 for CD-23.

2.) Drop-Off in Total Votes by Party compared to "Headline Elections" contrasted against US CD-23 House Elections.



What does this tell us?

1.) There were 40% fewer votes cast in CD-23 in 2014 than in 2012.
     There were 50% fewer votes cast in CD-23 in 2014 than in 2016.

2.) Pubs tend to experience a lower drop-off in Total Votes for CD-23 in Bexar County, than Democrats do. The drop-off in DEM vs PUB US-REP votes in '16 compared to '14 was much lower than in '12, indicating a narrowing vote gap by Party, at least for Presidential Year Elections.

3.) Overall, there is a relatively small drop-off in Total votes from the "top-ticket" races (US-PRES '12/'16 and US-SEN '14) compared to US CD-23 races. Approximately 1% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2012 and 2016.

It doesn't appear that voters in off-year elections tend to vote only "top-ticket" and not down-ballot for US-REP to any significant extent compared to Presidential Election Years in Bexar County CD-23.

4.) It will be interesting to see if "Off-Year" election turnout increases in Bexar County in '18 compared to '14, considering the Texas US-SEN race is much more fiercely contested this Year.

5.) The Republican Candidate performance in Bexar CD-23 in '16 almost looks like an outlier, considering the Dem CD-23 Candidate out-performed the Dem "Top-Line" candidate in both '12 and '14.

How much of this was a result of HRC Anglo voters swinging hard DEM, but still wanting to keep a PUB in Congress as a "check on Trump" is unknown, but certainly something to consider as a potential wildcard in the 2018 TX GE, with US SEN race on the ballot, especially with the "surge" of new voters between '12 and '16, many of whom are likely inclined to vote for BETO this coming November....

Next stop, probably will be delve a bit further into the respective Party "Vote Banks" within Bexar County CD-23 and maybe some Socio-Demographic overlaps....

Fuel for thought.

 



 
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« Reply #80 on: November 19, 2018, 12:22:13 am »

Taking a deeper dive into the UT-CD-'04 numbers in '18 starting with the vote share by place in Salt Lake County 2016 to 2018...



Here is a visual representation... 



As you can see virtually every City within Salt Lake County lost vote share between Nov '16 and Nov '18.

The exception was Millcreek, which gained a whopping +6.8% of the SLC CD '04 Vote share (from 5.3% to 12.1% making it the 3rd largest vote bank, only narrowly behind South Jordan and a few points behind West Jordan.

This is likely a direct result of incorporation from this area from an uninc CDP into a City in December of '16.

It also appears to be one of the main factors as to why this race is so close (we'll get back to that a little later).

Now, let's look at the Registered Voters by Place 2016 to 2018:



Now let's look at that same data in a graphical format:



So what we see here is a massive increase in total registered voters in the CD-04 portion of Salt Lake County, with roughly 26k new registered voters added between Nov '16 and Nov '18....

Almost 19k of these were in Millcreek alone (roughly 70% of new RVs)... South Jordan gained 2k and Herriman gained 3.2k.

Now let's look at the Turnout by Place between the 2016 Presidential Election and 2018 Congressional Election (Based on Friday's Salt Lake County Vote Numbers)...



Here is a graphical version of the same data:



What does this tell us?

Turnout was significantly lower in Bluffdale, Herriman, and South Jordan than the overall turnout gap between these two elections to date...

Turnout was only marginally down in Millcreek, Salt Lake City, West Jordan, and West Valley City.

Although this does not necessarily portend that remaining ballots will skew Republican, it is still noteworthy.

Now, let's look at the raw vote numbers by place and party in the 2016 PRES election vs the 2018 CD-04 election.



Here's a graphical representation:



Let's look a slightly more simplified graph that removes the total vote, in order to make it easier to see how the Democratic Candidate for CD-04 REP increased DEM vs REP raw vote totals just about everywhere, compared to the 2016 Presidential Election.



DEMs gained a net +43.3 votes over HRC, while the PUBs gained a net +22.2k votes over DJT.

Both DEMs and PUBs gained raw votes everywhere, except for Kearns, where the PUBs lost 43 votes between NOV 16 GE and NOV 18 GE.

In terms of NET DEM vs REP gains between '16 and '18, DEMs gained more votes in every municipality compared to PUBs with the exception of Herriman (+76 R).

The net gain numbers that stand for DEMs:

1.) Millcreek: +6k DEM
2.) West Jordan: +2.6k DEM
3.) Murray: + 2.3k DEM
4.) Taylorsville: + 2.0k DEM
5.) West Valley City: +1.8k DEM


ok... I could go on, but I suspect y'all get the picture.

What is most remarkable about these numbers, is that it appears in many places, the Democratic vote gains between 2016 PRES and 2018 CD-04 REP, appears to have occurred as a direct result of McMullin and Gary Johnson voters, voting DEM in 2018....

So now, we need to look at the % of Vote by Place between the Nov '16 PRES election and Nov '18 Congressional election....



Let's look at this in a graphical format, and a stacked chart probably works best here, especially considering the 3rd Party Vote in 2016 out in Salt Lake County...



Wow--- this helps provide a greater context in what appears to be a relative collapse of Republican Party strength, even among voters predisposed to vote for Liberal/Moderate Republicans in the era of Trump, especially among many communities with relatively large Mormon populations.

Something strange is going on here...

Now, in order to understand more fully the impact of the McMullin/ Johnson cross-over voters, as well as potential impacts of population growth within this part of Salt Lake County, we need to look at the % margins and swing by place...



Here is a graph that might perhaps more clearly indicate the numbers from the raw data chart....



So basically DEMs increased raw % share in every community except for Riverton, Herriman, and South Jordan.

DEM swings were most remarkable in Kearns (+21.5% D Swing '16 > '18), South Salt Lake (+ 16.8% DEM swing '16 > '18), Midvale (+16.1% DEM swing '16 > '18), West Valley City / Salt Lake City (+13.3% DEM swing '16 > '18). 

Murray, Sandy, Taylorsville, and Other also saw +10% DEM swings from '16 to '18....

Interestingly enough Millcreek only saw a +5.8% DEM swing between '16 and '18, but the massive increase in new voters added some +6k DEM NET VOTE MARGIN between '16 and '18....

Although the 2018 CD-04 elections in Salt Lake County might well simply be an anomaly, it might also be the "Canary in the Coalmine" when it comes to the future of the Republican Party in Salt Lake County Utah, considering they were effectively slaughtered within the most Republican parts of the County, with a few exceptions.....

Thoughts anyone???
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« Reply #81 on: November 19, 2018, 01:03:41 am »

UT-04 is trending towards democrats, but McAdams was a very solid candidate.
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« Reply #82 on: November 20, 2018, 11:25:26 pm »

So now that we have the final numbers in from Utah CD-04 Time to go back and review what happened in Salt Lake County CD-04.

Let's Start with Turnout by Place compared to the 2016 Presidential Election....

So here's the Table:



Here's the Graphical version:

 

So as expected overall voter turnout fell from 82% in the US-Presidential Election, and dropped down to a still impressive 79% for the CD-04 House Election.

We see the biggest Turnout drop in the heavily Republican communities of South Jordan, Herriman, Riverton, and Bluffdale.

The only place where voter turnout increased versus the 2016 Presidential Election is in the fast growing, and potentially a future Democratic Stronghold within Salt Lake County of Millcreek.

We also saw only minor drops in Turnout in the overwhelmingly Democratic precincts in Salt Lake City, and South Salt Lake City, which although they account for a relatively small chunk of the Vote Share within the District and County, do start to add up once you get heavily DEM margins.

Many of the other Cities where Trump lost to HRC by a plurality with a huge McMullin/Johnson 3rd Party Vote, such as Midvale, West Valley City, and Murray, saw a relatively minor drop-off in Turnout.

Holladay, which other than SLC and SSL, and Millcreek, was the only place where HRC gained over 50% of the Vote, had a relatively low drop in Turnout.

Now, let's look at something I mentioned a few days back, but most of you that were just skimming through wouldn't have necessarily caught it....

The fundamental composition of voters by Place within Salt Lake County CD-04 has changed dramatically since Millcreek went from an UNINC CDP to a CITY in DEC '16.



Basically what we see here is a City that came virtually out of nowhere, that virtually doubled it's vote share between '16 and '18, and additionally was already a 53-24 HRC City in '16, where RV surged, as well as DEM swings and Turnout.

This is likely something that caught PUBS in CD-04 unawares, regardless of whatever enthusiasm gap may have existed in Republican strongholds within the overall district.

Here's a 2016 to 2018 RV Graph I posted a few days back that more visually shows what population changes has been taking place in the Salt Lake County portion of the District....



Ok--- now let's take a look at the 2016 PRES vs 2018 CD-04 REP in an Excel Table for raw numbers:



What is fascinating here, is the only place where Republicans actually gained raw vote margins in CD-04 compared to the 2016 PRES election was, * drum roll* a dramatic + 92 NET PUB voters in Herriman....

Even in the heavily PUB communities of Bluffdale, Riverton, and South Jordan, DEMS managed to actually increase their Net Vote Totals....

What that means is likely some of the McMullen voters might have set out the election rather than vote DEM, compared to other parts of the Salt Lake County (IDK Huh I'll let some of my comrades and Mormon DEMs speak to that subject).

So let's look at the 2016 Presidential Results by Place to see where the 3rd Party Votes were most heavily concentrated with Salt Lake County CD-04:



Interesting, so the places with the highest 3rd Party Votes for US-PRES in '16 also had some of the lowest Turnout numbers (Huh?)

I could post an updated swing stacked column graph by place to represent, the changed results from the final Salt Lake County vote dumps Yesterday and official numbers from today, and it will likely look much worse for Republicans....

Here is the chart I posted after the Friday 11/16 Update, and quite frankly will look less favorable to the PUBs once the final raw numbers from a traditionally heavily Republican district in South Salt Lake Suburban / Exurban start to kick in...



Gray is McMullen / Johnson/ Stein / Pink etc, but it does appear that in most of CD-04 in Salt Lake County 3rd Party voters swung overwhelmingly McAdams, while some voters that could not bring themselves to vote for a Democrat, sat out the CD-04 election (Haven't run over-vote under-vote by precinct and municipality yet).

For any of those out there, the only reason, I have spent so much time on Salt Lake County, is simply, that it is one of those Counties that posts detailed election results by precinct on a regular basis (This is what Democracy looks like folks), whereas I have virtually zero visibility on Utah County.... Still looking forward to pulling the precinct data from all of Utah here in a few short weeks, and looking at a few numbers.

I could do a grand finale... but I will allow the raw data to speak for itself, and "let everyone jump to their own conclusion map" (Office Space ref), but more interested in what observations those closer to the street in Metro SLC have about what is really an extraordinary event.



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« Reply #83 on: November 20, 2018, 11:30:21 pm »

UT-04 is trending towards democrats, but McAdams was a very solid candidate.

Sure candidate quality counts 100% agreed....

Obviously one of the biggest questions in Utah Congressional Elections, were the results in CD-04 a fluke, or perhaps something that portends a larger and longer term shift, among educated and Middle-Class Voters in Metro SLC (Including Mormon Voters that used to be much more predisposed to Vote DEM back in the '70s, became overwhelming PUB starting in the '80s, and now you have a ton of young Mormon Millennials that don't see eye to eye with their parents on a variety of issues. (Huh).

2020 could be extremely interesting in Utah with Trump on the ballot....
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« Reply #84 on: November 20, 2018, 11:45:24 pm »

UT-04 is trending towards democrats, but McAdams was a very solid candidate.

Sure candidate quality counts 100% agreed....

Obviously one of the biggest questions in Utah Congressional Elections, were the results in CD-04 a fluke, or perhaps something that portends a larger and longer term shift, among educated and Middle-Class Voters in Metro SLC (Including Mormon Voters that used to be much more predisposed to Vote DEM back in the '70s, became overwhelming PUB starting in the '80s, and now you have a ton of young Mormon Millennials that don't see eye to eye with their parents on a variety of issues. (Huh).

2020 could be extremely interesting in Utah with Trump on the ballot....
Utah is a very interesting state. I would actually argue it is trending "normal republican" statewide, due to high levels of growth in Utah County and further solidification of rural areas into the republican coalition. With that being said, Salt Lake County is trending towards democrats, and this redistricting committee will be huge for democrats in Utah. They are essentially gaining a seat for sure, unless This commission was more like the Florida commission and less like the California commission.

As for Utah 2020, I suspect a result where Trump cracks 55%, democrats taking 30%, and various third parties taking the rest. Utah county, which, as preciously mentioned, has major growth compared to the rest of Utah, will be one to watch. Do democrats break 20%? are they going to make a dent into mormons? I am excited to see, and for your detailed analysis!
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« Reply #85 on: November 24, 2018, 01:08:24 pm »

UT-04 is trending towards democrats, but McAdams was a very solid candidate.

Sure candidate quality counts 100% agreed....

Obviously one of the biggest questions in Utah Congressional Elections, were the results in CD-04 a fluke, or perhaps something that portends a larger and longer term shift, among educated and Middle-Class Voters in Metro SLC (Including Mormon Voters that used to be much more predisposed to Vote DEM back in the '70s, became overwhelming PUB starting in the '80s, and now you have a ton of young Mormon Millennials that don't see eye to eye with their parents on a variety of issues. (Huh).

2020 could be extremely interesting in Utah with Trump on the ballot....
Utah is a very interesting state. I would actually argue it is trending "normal republican" statewide, due to high levels of growth in Utah County and further solidification of rural areas into the republican coalition. With that being said, Salt Lake County is trending towards democrats, and this redistricting committee will be huge for democrats in Utah. They are essentially gaining a seat for sure, unless This commission was more like the Florida commission and less like the California commission.

As for Utah 2020, I suspect a result where Trump cracks 55%, democrats taking 30%, and various third parties taking the rest. Utah county, which, as preciously mentioned, has major growth compared to the rest of Utah, will be one to watch. Do democrats break 20%? are they going to make a dent into mormons? I am excited to see, and for your detailed analysis!

Well, it will be interesting to observe at least 2 (probably - more) countertendencies, which may go on in near future in Utah. Basic principles of Mormon religion tend to make most of them (mormon people, who are a majority of Utah population, and usually have large families, so it's more likely, then not, will be in a future too) a conservatives (i am well aware of many exceptions, but say that in statistical sense of this word). But, at the same time, Mormons value education a lot, and, generally, tend to be rather well-educated himself (those Mormons i met during my stay in US were good examples). And, as we know, the better educated public is - the more it tends to vote Democratic of late. Mormons value traditional families, and that pushes them to conservative camp again. But - they value families, and that makes a Trump-style womanizers unpopular among them. And Trump now is an unquestionable "face" of Republican party. And so on. Which factors will prevail in different parts of Utah - open question.
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« Reply #86 on: November 29, 2018, 11:03:50 pm »

Now we are starting to see State Election offices officially certifying election results, so naturally in some States, this starts to give us opportunities to pull raw precinct level data for our Atlas pleasure, hobby, and past time of minutely dissecting election results in much more detailed level of analysis...

*** 11/29/18 EDIT: Now I will bookend updates at the First Page of the Thread and also in the last page, to make for an easier ability to link to the official State Election websites posting results, regardless for new visitors to the thread, or those that have been following (Although some folks have their Atlas preferences to show last posts at the top, especially in the Mobile App era). ****

I will also be deleting extraneous posting links and updates that I made between the bookends (Excepting links to County level Sites, which might contain precinct data not available on the Statewide Election Sites).

Currently we have the following States that have uploaded Precinct Level Data to their Election Websites....



2018 Precinct Results that are accessible from State Election Offices at present in a Centralized manner (Although ease of access varies from click a button to grab an entire precinct data set for a state to much more cumbersome methods....).

Alaska:

http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/18GENR/

http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/18GENR/data/resultsbyprecinct.txt

*** Need to scroll down to the bottom Statement of Votes Cast and pull precinct data by State district individually into a PDF format ****

*** Updated 11_25_18 to include link to Text based download as per Cynics comment...

"Alaska finally does have Excel-readable precinct data. You need to go to your link, RIGHT click on "Text by Precinct", and select save."

Arizona:

https://azsos.gov/precinct-level-results-county-2018-general-election

Colorado:

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/91808/Web02-state.222648/#/rpt


Delaware:


https://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect18/elect18_general/html/index.shtml

Georgia:

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/91639/Web02-state.221451/#/access-to-races

*** Need to Download County by County ****

Hawaii:

https://elections.hawaii.gov/wp-content/results/precinct.pdf

Idaho:

https://sos.idaho.gov/elect/results/index.html

Minnesota:

https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/Select/Download/115

Nebraska:

https://electionresults.sos.ne.gov/resultsCTY.aspx?type=SW&rid=8862&osn=102&map=CTY

*** Click on the export precinct results to Excel for your selected Contest, and it will generate a really nice spreadsheet with tabs for each County in the State (Awesome!) ***

New Mexico:

http://electionresults.sos.state.nm.us/resultsCTY.aspx?type=FED&rid=4898&osn=180&map=CTY

North Carolina:

https://er.ncsbe.gov/index.html?election_dt=11/06/2018&county_id=9&office=ALL&contest=0

*** THANKS Sorenroy for sharing this on another thread regarding the 2018 NC-09 potential Republican voter fraud.... Wink  ***

North Dakota:

https://results.sos.nd.gov/ResultsSW.aspx?text=All&type=SW&map=CTY

*** per cinyc... "(Click on Export --> Precinct for each race) ****


Oklahoma:

https://www.ok.gov/elections/Election_Info/2018_November_General_Election.html

South Carolina:

https://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/92124/Web02-state.222648/#/cid/21500/c/Sumter

*** This one's virtually useless for the sake of exporting data, but you can pull up individual counties by race and see a map and raw precinct votes ***

South Dakota:

Updated to include Cinyc links...

http://electionresults.sd.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY (Statewide row races)
http://electionresults.sd.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=BQ&map=CTY (Statewide Ballot Intiatives)
http://electionresults.sd.gov/ResultsExport.aspx? (By-county exports of all races in the county by precinct)


Virginia:

https://apps.elections.virginia.gov/SBE_CSV/ELECTIONS/ELECTIONRESULTS/

Wyoming:

https://soswy.state.wy.us/Elections/Docs/2018/2018GeneralResults.aspx

*** Have to download precinct results individually by County ***



Obviously we tons of County level precinct data that looks official floating out there, but if I want to go out and grab a County, I would rather just grab precinct data for an entire State whenever possible....

Am I missing any Statewide Precinct level official dumps on my map thus far?








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« Reply #87 on: December 02, 2018, 07:44:35 pm »

So, before starting to delve into the wealth or Oregon Precinct results available for 2018, I decided it would be interesting to look briefly at the Oregon State House and State Senate elections and compare against the previous elections for those districts.

Firstly, the Democrats maintained a Super-majority in the State Senate, holding an 18-12 majority in the State Senate.

OR- Senate district #26 (Hood River County and Parts of fast growing Exurban SE PDX portions of Clackamas County was a near pickup with only ~ 200 Votes separating the two Candidates.



Secondly, Democrats gained (3) States in the State House, maintaining their super-majority going from a (35-25 D) majority to a (38-22 D) Majority.

Let's take a deeper look at the results....

1.) First let's look at the OR-State Senate Results in 2014 and 2018 and then the Swings between 2014 and 2018 for those races that were contested by both major political parties in both elections....

The numbers are broken down as DEM-REP for elections contested by both Parties, and for Elections not contested by one of the major parties a Dem-REP-Other number appears with a 0 representing the Major Party not contesting the Seat.

Additionally the color coding Socialist Red, means that DEMs won the Seat, and a European Conservative Blue represents PUBs won the seat.

2014--- Oregon Statewide Map--- (Not Metro PDX)Sad



So looking at this map, obviously there are certain places that in a normal Mid-term election, might well have been targets of Republican pickups, especially with lower turnout among DEM base voters, and the Election being localized as more of a Statewide Election without Trump on the ticket.

SD #3: Medford / Ashland and Rural South JackCo might have looked interesting, considering that the DEM only won it 52-44 in 2016, and it was an open seat.

Still Medford, although it is the largest City in Oregon to vote for Trump, actually swung against the PUB PRES compared to 2012 support for Romney (This was heavily driven by major swings among more affluent and educated voters in East Medford).

Senate District #8: (Corvallis/Albany/ and heavily PUB parts of rural LinnCo) might have been a long-shot pickup, considering that Albany traditionally tends to vote PUB for both Fed and Statewide Elections, college students in Corvallis might have lower voter turnouts in a Non-PRES Year).

Senate District #11: (Heavily DEM precincts in NE Salem and heavily PUB precincts elsewhere) might have been competitive, especially considering that the most Democratic precincts in the district are heavily Latino parts of Salem, where turn-out in an non-pres year election according to Atlas CW, might be expected to be significantly low).

For the DEMs, the only real pickup opportunity in this map was OR- Senate District #26.

Now let's look at the results by State Senate District in "Downstate Oregon" in 2018:



So what do we see here?....

State Senate District #10: We see the PUB Senate Minority leader Jackie Winters almost voted out (46-54 R), despite running unopposed in 2014 by a DEM and bagging 87% of the Vote, and having a strong reputation as a Liberal Republican in a heavily Democratic part of Marion County.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jackie_Winters

State Senate District #13: Looks a bit closer than expected, despite including the marginal Republican City of Keizer, and heavily PUB rurals, and slivers of Exurban PDX.

State Senate District #26: Almost falls, we'll get back to that later.

Now let's look at the swings between 2014 and 2018 for those OR-State Senate Districts contested by both major parties in both 2014 and 2018...



So, we see a relatively minor swing in OR State Senate District #3 (Ashland/Medford/So JackCo) towards the DEMS.

No swing in OR SSD # 6 (Heavily PUB rural LinnCo, fairly PUB rural LaneCo, but enough heavily DEM parts of Metro Eugene-Springfield to keep things inelastic.

Massive swing in OR SSD # 8 (Corvallis-Albany and rural PUB LinnCo)--- +19% DEM swing !!!

So the interesting thing here is that the Benton County portion of the district is heavily DEM, with Corvallis being one of more Democratic Cities in Oregon, and the next largest community being North Albany (Marginal PUB), the Linn County portion of Albany +10% Trump and overwhelmingly PUB rurals elsewhere within the district (Excepting Uninc East Corvallis portion of LinnCo).

Both Linn and Benton added about 5k votes for this election (SSD Cool between '14 and '18....

Benton went from (64-35 D) in '14 to (73-25 D) in '18.    +19% D Swing
Linn went from (42-57 R) in '14 to (48.6% D- 48.7% R) in '18.   +15% D Swing

It appears that Democrats convincingly won the City of Albany for a Statewide contest for the first time in (Huh), and most significantly the Linn County portion of Albany.....

SD #11: (NE Salem, Woodburn, and large sections of rural Marion County).

+ 12% DEM swing....

This will be an interesting race to look at once I get a chance to look at precinct level results, since there is pretty large Latino population within this District, and I'm curious about *where* the swings happened....

SD #12: (Hood River County, small # of voters in East MultCo, heavily Exurban PDX ClackCo) +13% DEM swing....

This District almost flipped, and interestingly enough it includes what used to be a heavily Republican Exurban part of Metro PDX (Happy Valley) not to mention Sunnyvale, etc, which used to be strongly PUB parts of ClackCo, but started to swing heavily against the PUBs in PRES elections between '12 > '16....

More to look at here, once I get a chance to check out precinct results.

METRO PDX:

2014 State Senate Results:



2018 State Senate Results:



2018 State Senate Metro PDX Swing Results:



Not much to see here, considering almost all of the districts did not face any Republican competition in either/or 2014/2018....

The +10% DEM swing in State Senate District #15....

This perhaps not particularly surprising considering that it is heavily based around the City of Hillsboro, although it does include more rural and Exurban areas such as Forest Grove and North Plains....

Hillsboro is a hidden story about the massive shifts in Democratic voting patterns in Washington County Oregon (Pop 100k+).

The Corp HQ of Intel is based in the City, and includes the best world class semi-conductor Fabs in Oregon, with perhaps the exception of B-2 or B-3 fabs in HP-Corvallis....

Hillsboro is only 59% Anglo, 11% Asian, and 23% Latino....

It will be extremely interesting to look at precinct level swings in Hillsboro in 2018.

Enough for OR-State Senate, next stop OR-State House....


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« Reply #88 on: December 02, 2018, 09:27:55 pm »

Now time to look at the OR-State House Election Results from 2018, and contrast against performance in 2016....

Here are the results for OR State House Races in "Downstate OR (Excepting Metro Salem and Metro PDX).

2016:



The first thing that stands out on this Map is how many potential PUB flips there were in "Downstate Oregon:....

Obviously OR House District # 9, 11 & 14 obviously jump out as potential PUB pickups in "Downstate OR:....

Fine... let's look at the results in "Downstate Oregon" State House results in 2018:



Hmm, these numbers don't actually look that bad for DEMs in "Downstate Oregon"....

So fine what do the swings show between 2016 and 2018 by Downstate House Districts where both of the Two major Political Parties contested both elections?



This map is perhaps much more fascinating than the OR-SEN map, since we actually have a direct compare/contrast for every OR-State House district between '16 and '18 in a fairly high turnout election....

The first thing that stands out here are:

1.) The Significant swings towards DEM OR-House Candidates in the major population centers of the Rogue River Valley in Jackson/Josephine Counties....

LD #5 we can likely ascribe to high Democratic Turnout in an off-year election within Ashland.

LD #6 starts to become more problematic, considering that Medford was a +10% Trump town in '16, albeit slightly shore of a majority of the vote (Huh Need to double-check numbers)...

If Medford starts to become a Democratic City, then Jackson County will become a LEAN DEM County, and let's put it this way, it's not too long before Curry and Josephine Counties start to become more like toss-up Counties...

Now, let's roll through some of the other State House Districts in Downstate OR...

OR HD #7: +19% DEM SWING..

I get that there are parts of rural Lane County that are LEAN DEM, and most of the Douglas County parts of the District that are Overwhelmingly PUB, but it's one of those instances where it appears that overwhelmingly small-town and rural Timber Country swung heavily DEM for a Statewide Candidate...

OR HD #9: +4% DEM Swings....

Includes an Ancestral DEM area of Coos Bay/ North Bend, Reedsport, and Florence, and some areas out in the hills between the Southern Oregon Coast and the Coast Range....

OR HD # 14: +18% DEM Swings....

(West Eugene and Junction City, and some Rurals)....

Outer West Eugene has historically been a fairly PUB part of Eugene, and Junction City is an historic Mill Town + RV MFG jobs.... Without looking at exact swings within precincts, it still is likely the case that these results are likely a mixture of increased DEM swings in West Eugene, combined with Obama '08 / Trump '16 WWC Voters coming home....

OR HD # 15:  (Albany plus rural LinnCo).

One of the largest swings in the OR House between '16 and '18....

Part of it is likely the DEM hit a floor in '16, and there was a huge bounce back in '18.

Still, Albany, Oregon has long been on my radar as a place that will increasingly start to swing heavily Democratic, as Younger and Working-Class Families are forced to relocate to cheaper places to live as the cost of housing has exploded over the past Five Years within the Linn-Benton County economic community.

We see additional crazy DEM swings in House Elections in Downstate Oregon, from HD # 59 (Wasco and Jefferson Counties)... + 16% DEM

Roll down into HD # 53: (Rural Deschutes plus places like Black Butte, and the other elite retirement resort communities)....  +22% DEM

There were a few bright spots for PUBs in the 2016 > 2018 State House Election swings in Downstate Oregon...

DEMs saw their losing margins decrease by 29% in Bend between 2016 and 2018....

This was an election in HD # 54 that should have been a DEM pickup in a wave year, but the DEM candidate basically caused a huge % of voters to vote 3rd Party, although the PUB only won with 54% in a District which logically should have flipped in 2018....

OR- HD-32 is something that deserves further examination, but it's really looking this might be one of the only parts of the State where Buehler was able to gain some action on down-ballot elections....

Now let's look at Metro-SALEM 2016-2018:

2016:



2018:



2016 to 2018 Metro Salem Swings:



So.... here we start to see more interesting data develop...

In every State House District in Metro Salem, we saw a ~ +10% DEM swing between 2016 and 2018, with the exception of House District #20....

Now let's take a look a Metro PDX House Districts:

2016:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=21887

2018:



2016 > 2018 Election Swings:



So what do we see here???

The Republican Party is now eliminated from representing any OR-House Districts in Metro-PDX after this past election....

Their last House Districts in Metro PDX (HD # 26 and HD #37) were eliminated.

Additionally places like HD # 40 and #51 in precisely the types of Exurban State Senate Districts that PUBs need to be competitive in, and additionally when you see +19% D swings in HD # 30, +10% D swings in HD # 35, +14% in HD # 39, +13% in HD #33, it's no wonder that Knute Buehler likely suffered heavily as part of being associated with a Toxic Republican brand, where even the Exurbs of Metro PDX are starting to vote DEM on Downstate ballots, despite the relative popularity of their "Moderate PUB Represenatives..."...

Dominos have yet to fall for the Republican Party in Oregon, unless they start to grow a pair and effectively become an independent party from the National Republican Party, since it's pretty clear that the Emperor has no Clothes, and that Oregonians running under a Republican banner are schills for a much deeper and darker agenda....
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« Reply #89 on: December 27, 2018, 08:55:12 pm »

Now that we are starting to see some precinct level results flowing in some Counties within this Congressional District, it is time to go back and take a look at these results in further detail....

Let's start with the Vote Share by County from 2012 to 2018 for the US-House Race to see what that tells us when it comes to the overall distribution of voters by Place....



Perhaps not surprisingly, especially in a Midterm Election Bexar County continued to expand their vote share, now accounting for 51.4% of Ballots Cast and Accepted for the CD-23 election....

The next largest Vote Bank within CD-23 (a sliver of El Paso County), has continued to oscillate when it comes to Presidential Election Years versus Midterm elections, but still finished +2.5% greater total CD-23 House Vote share compared to 2014.

Although El Paso County lost 0.5% of Vote Share compared to the 2016 GE House Vote, it's the only other County other than Baxter, which has actually gained Vote Share compared to 2012...

Medina County did narrowly gain vote share compared to 2016 GE Results, although still 0.8% lower than the 2014 Midterms.

Ok--- now let's look at the raw vote margins by County for CD-23 House Elections between '12 and '18....



So we see the Republican stronghold within CD-23 of Bexar County, have the best performance for a Democratic House Candidate since before 2012....

We see El Paso County precincts of CD-23 well out-perform the 2014 CD-23 election, and even 2012 Presidential Year Election US-House Election numbers within the District (!!!).

We see heavily Republican Medina County, come close to their 2016 CD-23 House Election margins (!!!).

We see Democratic Margins collapse in Val Verde County, which has been traditionally even in the 2014 Midterm Election, been a reliable DEM RAW VOTE MARGIN BANK....

This is extremely odd, especially if we contrast against 2014, but unfortunately I haven't been able to smoke out the precinct results yet for that County, but certainly something we all need to examine in much more detail....

Maverick County still performs much better than their 2014 CD-23 performance for a DEM candidate...

Uvalde County: Again something weird going on there (See Val Verde County above)....

Zavala County: Holds their own and DEM margins increase significantly compared to 2014.

Meanwhile, DEM RAW VOTE MARGINS take hits in many of the small rurals and "OTHER Counties" category (We'll get back to that later once I start going through County level detail).

Now let's look at the raw margin swing by County '16 to '18 for the US-House Race in TX-CD-23



What we see here are the types of swings the DEM Candidate needed to hit in the right places....

Those Bexar County swings are crazy....

I will be going back and taking a look at this in greater detail, starting with the precincts of Bexar County, but it's pretty clear the DEM had a major issue among a handful of overwhelmingly DEM Counties in the Rio Grande Valley, even after adjusting for lower voter turnout in some of these heavily Latino border Counties, although this pattern was not universal which raises the question as to why....




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« Reply #90 on: December 28, 2018, 01:12:42 am »

Let's go back to Bexar County precincts of TX-CD-23 and take a look at how the relatively affluent Anglos that dominate the voting population have historically voted (Although there are certainly plenty of Latino populations within the Bexar portion of the District)....

Although many of these voters are "Anglo Water Park Moms" that take their kids down to mingle with the heavily Tejano and 2nd and 3rd Generation Mexican-Americans all trying to beat the heat of the hot Central Texas sun, people retreat to their neighborhoods, and the temp cools off quicker in the Hills around SA, and plus Central AC helps out (Although it comes with a massive cost, especially the bigger the house).

I digress:

Here are how voters within TX CD-23 have voted for Federal Elections between 2012 and 2016 in a Chart Form:



ok--- that's a bit of a crap graph....

Let's look at it from another angle....



WOW---this is absolutely Crazy---- !!!

Blue is Democrat and Orange is Republican....

BETO won the Anglo 'Burbs of SA in CD-23....

Next stop delving further into the Weeds of this mystery, to see *** WHERE *** all of this occurred so maybe we can decipher the *** WHY ***

I do know that there are CD-23 precincts where Ortiz-Jones did better than BETO and the contrary, but regardless these are some pretty devastating numbers for PUBs in TX....

As I observed in the late '80s and early '90s in Oregon / Washington, once the 'Burbs start to flip and see themselves as a "Metro United" vs "Metro Divided", things start to shift....

We some something similar in NorCal in the early / Mid 1990s, and a bit later on in SoCal....

Still, not enough data points, but if DJT is the PUB PRES candidate, I suspect there is a good chance his numbers will collapse further in out here, and a decent chance he will drag down Hurd with him....
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« Reply #91 on: December 28, 2018, 03:28:56 pm »

Time to shift gears a little bit and start to break down Bexar County CD-23 into slightly greater detail....

Let's start with looking at the most Republican part of the County, the Northeastern Part of the District....

It consists predominately of precincts located within the City of San Antonio, as well as some Unincorporated areas, that are effectively suburban in nature.



These precincts collectively accounted for 33.0% of the US REP '16 CD-23 part of Bexar County, and 39% of the US REP '14 CD-23 part of Bexar County....

Let's take a peak at how they voted in recent elections....



So we see that at the Congressional Level, this part of the District tends to vote 2:1 Republican, but that there was a huge 17% gap between 2016 PRES results vs 2014/2016 US-REP results....

Although Trump still won here convincingly, there was a +19% D Swing at the Presidential Level between 2012 and 2016....

If the ~ +20% Dem Pres swing number doesn't ring a bell with anyone, the Atlas Collective can provide a comprehensive list of places where these types of swings occurred.

Now, what is interesting here is that we didn't really see any impact between '14 and '16 at the US-House level....

One of the key questions that surely occurs to many of us, are the midterm polling and special election results we are seeing simply a lagging indicator in many districts where among certain populations there was a massive swing at the Presidential Level, but no real movement at the Congressional Level?

Will voters in TX CD-23 NE Bexar County vote Democratic for their local Representative at the same levels they did for US President in 2016?

If so, that could obviously make the difference, even in a Non-Presidential Election Year.

Social-Demographics of the Republican Strongholds of CD-23 Bexar County Northeast....

This gets tricky, because of the heavily distorted Pub Gerrymandered map makes it difficult to align Census Tract data with Precinct data, without spending hours and hours of time....

Let's start with the canary in the coalmine...

Here is a map of "White Non-Latino Population" by Census Tract...

The oval black outline roughly corresponds to the Anglo Population within Bexar County CD-23 NE.



So, here we see one of the more heavily Anglo portions of Bexar County... I could pull a graphic of the Latino % of total population, African-American, Asian-American, etc, but without really delving into the details of individual precincts, I'm not sure the labor-hours invested would be worth the ROI.

Still, it is important to remind folks out there that Latino % of Total Population does not equal Latino % of VAP.... This is a result of multiple factors, but one of the biggest is simply that the Latino population tends to be lower in age than other communities, including many under the age of 18.

Let's look at the big picture when it comes to MHI within this portion of the District...



So what we see here is that "generally" these places tend to have a much higher Median Household Income than most other places within Bexar County....

Now, I could post multiple maps of Educational Attainment (Would have to be multiple since the source I use splits the Census Maps by levels of Attainment).... but once again, you will see that same correlation....

So.... Will the most Republican Voters in TX CD-23 (Outside of smaller rurals---) pull a ballot for Ortiz-Jones (D) vs. Hurd (R-Incumbent)? It doesn't take a massive swing, basically these types of folks voting US-House closer to how they voted for US-PRES, to flip this seat.



Now that we have the precinct results available for Bexar County, I went back and reviewed the 2018 numbers for US House CD-23 and US-SEN-TX for this part of the district.

Let's go back to the Vote Share for US-REP from these NE Precincts...

2018: 33.5% of Bexar County CD-23
2016: 33.0% of Bexar County CD-23
2014: 39.0% of Bexar County CD-23

Essentially what this tells us here is that these precincts reverted to more of a typical vote share of a Presidential Election Year in 2018, rather than a Midterm Election Year (As the abysmal Turnout in 2014).

Now what do the Raw Votes tell us for Federal Elections between 2012 and 2018?



So here we see the total vote looking like the following:

2012: 33.5k to 34.0k  (US-House to PRES)
2014: 22.0k               (US-House)
2016: 38.0k to 38.5k  (US-House to PRES)
2018: 36.1k to 36.5k  (US-House to US-SEN)

Pretty impressive Turnout in 2018, considering that it was roughly 95% of the 2016 PRES numbers, and 7% higher than the 2012 PRES numbers, even if we account for some population growth here.

If we look at the Raw Vote by Party, we see BETO hit 15k raw Votes, for a +1.4k gain over HRC in 2016, and essentially created a new record performance for a DEM in this part of the District.

We see the DEM candidate for CD-23 gain a raw +1.7k Votes compared to the performance in 2016, which was the next highest raw DEM vote here.

On the PUB side, we see Cruz lose 2k votes compared to 2012, while BETO gained 6k votes compared to the DEM in 2012.

The PUB candidate for US REP lost 2.7k votes compared to 2016, but still well out-performed Cruz, and even beat Trump's 2016 Votes, still while losing a significant number of votes!

PUBs will typically bag a net +12k to +14k raw vote lead over their DEM challengers alone from these precincts, so a +6k to +10k lead is less than impressive regardless.

Now, let's look at that same data as a % of support for Federal Candidates 2012 to 2018 by Party:



So here we see that Republicans typically grab 67% to 70% of the vote, while Democrats have struggled to hit 30%.

Something changed for the 2016 Presidential Race, however as Republican support plummeted to 58.8%, and HRC garnered 35.4% of the Vote (With 5.8% going to 3rd Party Candidates).

For the US-SEN race in 2018, the DEM managed to capture 41.2% of the Vote, and Cruz numbers dropped to 58.0%.

For the CD-23 House race, the DEM came just slightly under HRCs numbers with 35.3% support, and the PUB sank to 63.2%.

One interesting item to look at here, is that appears that BETO benefited from 3rd Party voters (Combined with winning some Trump '16 Voters), but for the US-House race, that does not appear to have been as much the case.

Let's close with looking at the Swings compared to some previous elections...



If we look at the 2018 Senate Race we see a +25% DEM swing compared both the 2012 PRES race and the 2012 TX-SEN race!

If we compare the 2018 SEN race against the 2016 PRES race we see a +6.6% DEM Swing.

If we compare the 2018 CD-23 race against the 2016 PRES race, we see a +4.5% PUB swing.

If we compare the 2018 CD-23 race against the 2016 CD-23 race, we see a + 9.8% DEM swing.

So in closing, although BETOs performance we impressive, it's pretty clear the collapse of PUB support at the Federal level started at the Presidential Election of 2016, and that the 2018 TX-SEN race was simply a continuation of that trend.

If we look at the DEMs performance for CD-23, although PUB support was still higher than Trump's support, there was a significantly larger swing towards the DEMs contrasted against the Senate Race. As I suggested prior to the 2018 election, the US-House race was likely going to be a lagging indicator of a process that started for PUBs in these parts at the time of '16 PRES election.

It would not be surprising to see these trends continue in 2020 if Trump is still the de facto leader of the Republican Party.


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« Reply #92 on: December 28, 2018, 10:56:51 pm »

Time to take a trip down to the "Democratic Heartlands" of Bexar County CD-23, down to Southeast, South, and Southwest San Antonio....



Now some of you might say, wait why was this precinct in SE or South SA not included, but reality was that I was trying to focus on more heavy population dense precincts, since there are some additional precincts, not included in my outline that are technically part of the City, but don't appear to have high pop density....

Let's start with the SE Portion of San Antonio located within the CD-23 portions of Bexar County....



County Vote Share: 2016 US-House 4.9% of Bexar Co CD-23, 2014 US-House 4.9%, 2012 9.6% of US-REP vote Share....

So right there we have multiple questions:

1.) Why did the Vote Share of these precincts drop 50% between 2012 and 2014/2016?

       A.) The obvious answer is that other parts of Bexar County CD-23 are growing more rapidly in
            population, especially since the variance between '12/'16 US-REP numbers can't be
            explained by a low turnout '14 US-REP election.

      B.) An alternative hypothesis might be that for whatever reason, VAP population growth increased here between '12 and '16 roughly equivalent to elsewhere within the Bexar County CD-23 SE San Antonio precincts, but voters were less motivated than in other parts of the District within the County.

2.) Why was 2014 such a hot year for a Democratic House Candidate in the District compared to 2012 and 2016 (Which should be contrary to conventional political wisdom)?

3.) Why was there a +15.9% swing towards Trump in an overwhelmingly Democratic Neighborhood(s) of San Antonio?

    A.) 3rd Party Voting does not appear to be the primary reason at the Presidential Level,
         considering Dems lost 9.2% between '12 and '16 and Trump gained 6.7%.

    B.) Drop-Off of Down-Ballot Voters did play a factor in the margins between the 2014 and 2016 in
         the US House Race, but even there only account for maybe 30% of the -15% Dem numbers
         for that race and the +10% Rep numbers for that race when we compare 2014 to 2016.

Ok--- Let's take a look at the Demographics of Bexar CD-23 SE:

Let's start with the % of population that is African-American for the three Census Tracts overlapping these precincts.



Note that the African-American population is even higher for the 0-17% age range than the overall population of these Census Tracts...

Now what about the Latino population for these three Census Tracts?



And of course we need to look at the Anglo population by Census Tract:



Ok a few more data points:

Census Tract: 131200 (Far West Tract)-
MHI: $30.4k /Yr
ED Level: 7.6% > HS Diploma, 58.8% HS Diploma, 33.6% No HS Diploma
Relative Occupations: Construction (11.0%), Transportation (10.5%), Food Service (9.4%)
Relative Industries: Health Care (22.7%), Construction (14.3%)

Census Tract: 131300 (Middle Tract)-
MHI: $36.0k/Yr
ED Level: 27.4% > HS Diploma, 17.9% No HS Diploma
Rel Occupations: Administrative (25%)
Rel Industries: Retail / Construction

Census Tract: 131401 (Eastern Tract)-
MHI: $ 65.5k/Yr
ED Level: 31.8% > HS Diploma, 51.8% HS Diploma, 16.4% No HS Diploma
Rel Occupations: Administrative (16.9%), Repair (11.1%), Construction (10%)
Rel Industries: Health Care (14.5%), Hospitality (11.4%), Education (11.0%).

Whew--- Ok so basically the far Western area has an extremely large working-class African-American and Latino population, with the same rough pattern in the Central Area, and the Eastern Area is much more Middle-Class Latino...

So what does this tell us about the results of recent elections within the district?

In order to try to more closely overlap the Census Tract data with the precinct data, I needed to consolidate the precincts on the Western Part of the Loop 410 from the Eastern Part...

Let's look at the total Vote by Region by Party by Election from 2012 to 2016:



What are some key takeaways here?

1.) There was an increase in approximately 700 voters between the 2012 and 2016 Pres Election.

This growth was entirely concentrated in the Eastern portion.

2.) The Eastern portion, although it is still heavily Democratic, is much less so than the Western Portion, which accounted for the bulk of the total margin swings here between '12 and '16.

3.) In the more heavily African-American precincts of Western SE Bexar CD-23, there was no visible drop-off in support at the Presidential level between '12 and '16 for the Democratic Candidate (Obama 1,943 Votes 2012 and HRC 1,942 Votes 2012). Conversely on the Republican side (Romney 614 Votes and Trump 615 Votes) !!!

4.) The Republican Candidate for CD-23 gained an additional 120 votes between '12 and '16, which appear to have pretty much all come from DEM CD-23 Voters....

It could well be that Will Hurd is performing significantly better among African-American voters within the District than Republicans typically tend to perform.

5.) It will be interesting to see what turnout will look like here in Nov '18 with marquis elections for TX-SEN and TX-GOV attracting attention, compared to 2014....

6.) The Eastern portion of Bexar County CD-23 is where the growth is at, and Trump gained +224 Votes over Romney, whereas HRC gained only + 296 Votes over Obama. 3rd Party Candidates garnered 114 Votes.

7.) If we look at the '12 to '16 results in the Eastern Precincts for US-REP-CD 23, we see the PUB gain + 360 votes and the DEM gain + 101 votes.

Although I haven't looked at Population growth rates within this Census Tract, it's pretty clear there were a significant number of HRC > Hurd Voters in the Middle-Class and more heavily Latino precincts of the Eastern portion of this part of the District.

How will Middle-Class Latinos vote in November 2018 for TX-SEN and US-House- TX- CD 23?












Now time to take a look at a small handful of Precincts in South-East San Antonio that account for one of the largest concentrations of African-American Voters within CD-23.

This small neighborhood is basically on the edge of a relatively large historically Black Community in Eastern San Antonio, where Racist "Red-Line" real estate policies dictated who could live where as part of systematic policies practiced from the Northern States to the Deep South....

With the end of Racist Housing policies in the '60s, like many other Metro Areas in the Country, gradually Younger Residents relocated elsewhere, while older Residents stayed behind.

With the dramatic increase in Mexican Migration to America, many of these historically Black neighborhoods in Texas started to take on a more varied population, as newer immigrant populations created businesses and homes in small family neighborhoods.

TX CD-23 is not a major Black Community, if we look at it within the traditional context of the African-American experience, but yet within the Latino-American experience it is not unusual at all to have Black-Latinos from South America and the Islands living among Mexican and Central-American communities (As I experienced first hand with friends and co-workers in Houston Texas).

So, let's take a look at how this neighborhood has voted in Federal Elections from 2012 to 2018...



TOTAL VOTES:

1.) Obviously a significant decrease from '16 > '18

2012: Total Votes ran from 4.8k to 4.9k
2014: Total Votes--- 2.7k
2016: Total Votes---  5.5k to 5.6k (US-HOUSE to US-PRES)
2018: Total Votes--- 4.9k to 5.0k (US-HOUSE to US-SEN)

DEMS in '18 held steady at their 2012 numbers of +2.3k DEM > +2.6k DEM numbers in the TX-SEN race ( + 2.3k DEM) close to the +2.4k DEM numbers in the PRES race in '16.

DEM raw vote numbers in CD-23 dropped to +2.0k DEM, which matched the '16 HOUSE numbers, despite a much lower Turnout than in a PRES Election Year...

Still a pretty impressive performance compared to the 2012 GE overall, and certainly nothing to sneeze at in the TX-SEN and CD-23 Raw Vote Margins....

Now let's look at the % by Party for FED races 2012 to 2018:



William Hurd actually captured the highest % of a FED PUB in these precincts since before 2012, with 28.4% of the Vote (!!!).

Although these numbers might not sound impressive, he only won 27.7% in 2016, and the PUB only got 26.1% in 2014, and 21.3% in 2012. (!!!).

Although these aren't tons of votes, Turnout and Margins matter in close elections....

Meanwhile BETO captured 72.5% of the Vote, which although respectable, was still below Obama's 73.2% Vote in 2012, and the DEM HOUSE REP's 74.0% in that same Year....

We could blame it all on a Midterm Turnout deal, but in fact Ortiz-Jones actually lost 6% compared to the 2014 Mid-Term election.

Although the DEM margins of victory overall have relatively minor shifts for most of these elections, it is interesting that DEMs were winning with + 46-53% Margins in 2012 and 2014, and now only BETO hits the +46% Margin number....

Still relatively small chunk of the vote in Bexar, but important nonetheless, especially considering swings in some of the Anglo Neighborhoods within the CD in Bexar.

Next Stop South SA (San Antonio for those of you not familiar with Texas).


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« Reply #93 on: December 29, 2018, 09:58:35 pm »

Now it's time to take a look at a part of Bexar County CD-23 that I wasn't able to hit prior to the 2018 Midterm Elections: WEST SAN ANTONIO:

The precinct map outline looks slightly different than my first go-around for this part of the district, since after reviewing the Demographics, it made sense to lump these heavily Latino Precincts into one basket....

Let's start with a Map of the Precincts included in this exercise....



If we look at the overall Census Tract Data we see something like the following....

Anglo Population by % of Census Block Groups:



So basically Anglos run between 14% and 20% of the total Population....

Latino Population by % of Census Block Groups:



The Latino population runs between 62% and 74% depending upon which Block Group you are looking at...

Now, let's take a look at the Black Population of West SA living within these precincts by Census Block Tracts...



Time to take a look at the Median Household Income by Census Block Tract....



I could go into Educational Attainment, Occupations, and other such items, but unfortunately these take quite a bit of time to pull at a Micro level, but roughly it looks like 13% of the Pop has a Bachelor's Degree, and 25% has a Post-Secondary Degree, with these numbers higher in the Western Portion of the "Neighborhood".

So, I think this gives us something to work off of Demographic wise....

Now let's take a look at Election Results !!!!

First Let's start with the Bexar County Vote share of this part of CD-23 for US-House Elections between 2012 and 2018....

2012: 15.1 % of Bexar County CD-23 Vote Share
2014: 13.5 % of Bexar County CD-23 Vote Share
2016: 17.2 % of Bexar County CD-23 Vote Share
2018: 16.8 % of Bexar County CD-23 Vote Share

So apparently it's not just some of the Anglo 'Burbs that are increasing in vote share, with these precincts now accounting for roughly 17% of the County Vote in both '16 and '18 (I would not be surprised to see it higher in 2020)...


Here are the raw votes between 2012 and 2018 for Federal Elections in Bexar County--- West San Antonio Precincts....



So.... what does this tell us???

TOTAL VOTES:

1.) There was a massive surge in new voters between '12/'14 and '16 /'18 in this part of CD-23.

This may well have been driven by a multiplicity of factors:

A.) Expansion of Housing in a Fast Growing Metro Area with close proximity to the Freeways.

B.) Increase in voters coming of voting age (In this area more likely to be Latino).

C.) Dramatic increase in voter Registration and Turnout starting in 2016 compared to previous Elections in the notoriously low-turnout State of Tejas.

2.) Although without much more Political Electoral Forensics, we can't speak to the exact reason for the growth in total voting numbers, the outcome of voting in Federal elections is apparent.

A.) There has been a significant increase in Democratic Vote margins associated with these trends...

DEMs are now banking +5k Raw Vote Margins from this part of Bexar County....

HRC beat DJT by + 5.9k here in 2016....

BETO bear Cruz here by + 6.8k in the 2018 TX-SEN Election

B.) If we look at the CD-23 Race:

2012: + 4.4k DEM
2014: + 1.6k DEM
2016: + 3.9k DEM
2018: + 5.8k DEM

So, Gina Ortiz-Jones adds another +1.7k Votes into her bag in Bexar County...

Now let's look at the % support for Federal Candidates between '12 and '18 out here...



1.) Democrats hit record levels of support in 2018---

US-SEN: 67.9% DEM
US-HOUSE: 64.5% DEM

Republican numbers were 32% for US-PRES in '16 and only between 31-33% for (TX-SEN and CD-23) in '18....

Now let's look at the swings for selected races:



Quite a bit to digest with all of this, but again looking at the Bexar County CD-23 numbers, it's starting to look increasingly clear that at least in the 2018 US-SEN and CD-23 elections, Democrats performed quite well in a variety of different parts of the County.










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« Reply #94 on: December 31, 2018, 08:29:33 pm »

Now let's take a look at "Far South" San Antonio areas, basically most of the precincts in the district South of the 410 Loop.

It is a heavily Latino and predominately working-class part of the district with a population of roughly 35,000, albeit with a much much lower number of voters.

Here is a Precinct Map with some Census data thrown in:

So for example a 20/75 would indicate that it is 20% Anglo and 75% Latino.
The $ number indicates the Median Household income of the precinct.

Granted it is not 100% precise simply because Census tracts do not always cleanly align with precinct boundaries, and also MHI data isn't always able to be broken down by Census tracts.



Now let's take a look at these precincts vote share from 2012 to 2018 for US-REP CD-23 within the Bexar County portion of the district.

2012:  5.9%
2014:  5.4%
2016:  6.0%
2018:  6.0%

The vote share within these precincts has been remarkably consistent with the exception of the 2014 US-House race, which suggests that population growth / new voter registration is holding steady with the CD-23 portions of Bexar County at large.

Now let's look at the raw votes in these precincts between 2012 and 2018 for Federal Elections:



So, lot's to observe here... let's start with the Total Vote.

1.) The Total Vote appears remarkably low considering the number of people living within these precincts. Granted, likely over 30% of the Population is under the age of 18, roughly based upon the San Antonio South Bexar "neighborhood" Census data available. Roughly 75% of the population under the age of 18 are Latino, and these numbers drop to roughly 66% for the 18-44 age cohort, down to 57% for the 45-54, and 51% for the 55-74 group.

2.) These numbers would suggest that the Anglo proportion of voters is significantly higher than the Demographic data would indicate if we were to simply look at the overall Latino % of the population by precinct.

3.) If we look at the Total Votes between 2012 and 2018, we have roughly 1.5k more voters here in 2018 than in 2012.

One of the obvious questions would be how much of this increase in voters came from innate population growth of younger Latino voters coming of voting age, how much came from people moving into the area, where at least looking at the map, there's some pretty decent room for population growth, and easy access to freeways.

The 2018 US-SEN numbers were only (150) votes fewer than the 2016-US-PRES numbers, which would suggest either a significant increase in population between '16 > '18 and/or unusually high voter turnout numbers in a Midterm.

4.) The increase in Total Votes worked significantly to Democratic advantage in 2018, with Dems taking a record raw vote margin for US-SEN of 1,074 votes, with exceed Pete Gallego (D) margins of 1,036 in 2012.

Ortiz-Jones managed to squeeze a 790 vote margin out of these precincts in 2018, adding 352 votes to the DEM margins here in 2016, which exceeded HRCs 728 vote margin for US-PRES.

5.) That being said, Republicans also hit record raw vote numbers in these precincts in 2016 (~2.9k Votes) and 2018 (2.75k Votes), which suggests opportunities for Republicans in low election turnout years.

Now let's look at the % of Support for DEM and PUB Federal Candidates between 2012 and 2018.



Interesting:

1.) For an overwhelmingly Latino part of Bexar County, these are not impressive Democratic margins...

Democrats will typically take 53-55% of the vote, versus Republicans 42-43% in most elections.

2.) The outliers where DEMs performed better was 2018-SEN (57.5%) a record, and 2012-REP (56.2%).

The outlier where PUBs performed better was 2012-PRES (43.5% Romney).

3.) The DEM % Margins typically float in the 10-12% range, with 2012-House standing out, partially as a result of strong 3rd Party voting ( + 19.4% DEM), and 2018-SEN ( + 16.1% DEM), and on the flip side 2016-HOUSE ( + 6.6% DEM), with a high amount of 3rd Party Voting.

To what extent are these disappointing Democratic % numbers a result of low voter registration among a heavily Working-Class Mexican American population?

92% of the Population are US Citizens, and as I mentioned previously ~ 30% of the population is under voting age (75% Latino), but still it's pretty clear there are a large number of eligible voters that are not registered to vote.

Now to examine this a bit further, I thought it might be interesting to look again at the precinct map by Demographics to see what voter turnout numbers looked like 2018 and decrease of voter turnout between 2016 and 2018, to see if there appeared to be a significant drop-off of working-class Latinos between these two elections.

I skipped some of the extremely small precincts, with relatively small numbers of voters, but this should at least help convey the results.



What if anything does this tell us?

1.) Voter Turnout was highest in the relatively Middle-Class precincts of 4073 and 1089.

2.) It was also high in precinct 1123, where MHI data is difficult to obtain because of how it is split over multiple Census Tracts....

3.) Voter Turnout appears to have dropped the lowest between 2016 and 2018 in the most heavily Latino Precincts and Working-Class 1056 and 1124

4.) Voter Turnout appears to have dropped the most between '16 and '18 in Precincts with the highest % of Anglos.   (Precincts 4073, 1058, and 1063).

Although we don't know which voters in these precincts didn't show up between '16 and '18, we do have some Precinct Election Results available:

1.) Precinct 4073 (42% Anglo, 55 % Latino, MHI $ 63.9k /YR)

2012 PRES--- (42.8% Obama--- 54.9 % Romney)     + 12.1% REP
2016 PRES--- (47.2% HRC--- 47.2% Trump)             + 0 %      ( +12.1% DEM SWINGS '12 > '16)
2016 CD-23--- (40.8% DEM- 50.4% REP)                 + 9.6% REP
2018 TX-SEN-- (47.7% DEM- 50.8% REP)                 +3.1% REP   (+3.1 REP SWINGS PRES '16)
2018 CD-23--- (44.7% DEM- 51.3% REP)                  +6.6% REP   (+3.0% DEM SWINGS '16 > '18)

So it looks like drop-off in Turnout here likely impacted BETO and ORTIZ-JONES more than the PUBs.

2.) Precinct 1089 (17% Anglo, 77% Latino, MHI $ 74.9k/Yr)

2012 PRES: (54.9% DEM- 43.2% PUB)       +11.7% DEM
2016 PRES: (51.6% DEM- 42.7% PUB)       + 8.9% DEM     (+2.8% PUB SWINGS '12 > '16)
2016 CD-23: (45.9% DEM- 45.9% PUB)      + 0 %
2018 TX-SEN: (59.0% DEM- 40.6% PUB)    +18.4% DEM    (+9.5% DEM SWINGS '16 > '18)
2018 CD-23: (54.5% DEM- 42.0% PUB)      +12.5% DEM    (+12.5% DEM SWINGS '16>'18)

3.) Precinct 1056 (13% Anglo, 81% Latino, MHI $ 45.2k/Yr)

2012 PRES: (69.4% DEM- 29.0% PUB)       +40.4% DEM
2016 PRES: (63.6% DEM- 31.6% PUB)       + 32.0% DEM     (+8.4% PUB SWINGS '12 > '16)
2016 CD-23: (60.0% DEM- 32.7% PUB)      + 27.3% DEM
2018 TX-SEN: (67.6% DEM- 30.6% PUB)    +37.0% DEM    (+5.0% DEM SWINGS '16 > '18)
2018 CD-23: (64.5% DEM- 32.2% PUB)      +32.3% DEM    (+5.0% DEM SWINGS '16>'18)

4.) Precinct 1124 (8% Anglo, 83% Latino, MHI $ 45.2k/Yr

2012 PRES: (65.9% DEM- 32.4% PUB)       +33.5% DEM
2016 PRES: (61.2% DEM- 33.9% PUB)       + 27.3% DEM     (+6.2% PUB SWINGS '12 > '16)
2016 CD-23: (57.4% DEM- 32.8% PUB)      + 24.6% DEM
2018 TX-SEN: (65.0% DEM- 33.3% PUB)    +31.7% DEM    (+4.4% DEM SWINGS '16 > '18)
2018 CD-23: (62.8% DEM- 34.1% PUB)      +28.7% DEM    (+4.1% DEM SWINGS '16>'18)

So, I can keep rolling through the numbers, but appears that in many of the heavily Latino precincts in this part of Bexar, there was actually a swing towards Trump between 2012 and 2016 at the Presidential Level.

As I posted elsewhere quite a few years back, I suspect that part of the reason was there was a backlash against Obama (and by association against HRC in '16) because of the mass deportation policies that most directly impacted Working-Class Mexican-American populations.

What appears initially to be the case is that BETO was able to regain many of those Obama '12 Voters that sat out or voted 3rd Party for PRES in '16, as well as making inroads into Anglo Middle and Upper-Middle Class Texans.

What also appears to be the case, is that Ortiz-Jones was able to add enough support from Working-Class Latinos in Metro Bexar County, to be able to eat away at Will Hurd's margins, despite his relative popularity  among the Community, likely caused by distancing himself from some of the more unpopular policies of Trump....

I could roll through the rest of the precincts, but for now I think we're starting to see a clearer picture of what happened in Bexar County within CD-23 precincts, especially with only focusing on Federal Level Elections....
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« Reply #95 on: January 02, 2019, 07:35:15 pm »

Now to wrap up the remainder of Bexar County CD-23 precinct data, it's a bit of a smorgasbord, but still accounts for 16.5% of the CD-23 House Vote in 2018 within Bexar County.

It basically includes some fast growing heavily Anglo Upper Middle-Class Precincts in the NW, and some more heavily Latino and more Middle-Class precincts to the West and SW of San Antonio.

Let's look at the raw votes of these precincts.



So, several observations:

1.) The Total Vote has been increasing dramatically since '12 / '14, and the '18 numbers even surpassed '16 GE numbers.

There were +1.5k more votes in the 2018 TX-SEN race than there were in the 2016 PRES race, and (800) more votes for TX-CD-23 than in 2016.

2.) The Democratic candidate for TX-SEN received 2k more votes than HRC, and the candidate for CD-23 (500) more votes than HRC.

3.) The DEM candidate for CD-23 in '18 received 1.5k more votes, than the DEM in '16, while Hurd lost (40) votes.

4.) BETO actually won these precincts by (200) votes, contrasted against 1.2k DEM losses in the '12 CD-23, '16 PRES, and '18 CD-23 races, and ~ 2k DEM losses for '12 TX-SEN and '12 PRES, and 2.9k for '16 CD-23 REP.

Now let's look at this same data from a % of support for Federal Candidates 2012 to 2018:



So, what stands out here?

1.) We see Democratic support stuck at barely 40% in '12/'14 and even below that for CD-23 races in '14 and '16.

2.) We see Republican support ranging from 55-60% in 2012/2014, and even 2016 for CD-23. The only exception was 2012.

3.) Something changed at the 2016 PRES race, where the Republican Candidate only captured 50.6% of the Vote, and HRC garnered a record 43.6%.

4.) As mentioned before BETO actually won by 1% in the 2018 TX-SEN race, and Ortiz-Jones captured a record 45.2% for Rep from CD-23.

5.) If we look at this from the margins perspective, PUBs only won the '16 PRES and '18 CD-23 vote here by 7%, where typically they could bag 17% margins in a Presidential Election Year (2012) and the CD-23 election in (2016).

Let's look at a few selection margin swings to see how this worked out:



1.) Almost +10% DEM swings CD-23 REP 2016 to 2018.
2.) About +17-18% DEM swings TX-SEN '18 vs 2012 PRES and 2012 TX-SEN
3.) About +8% DEM swings TX SEN '18 vs '16 PRES
4.) Slight PUB swings CD-23 '18 vs '16 PRES

So, if these numbers look familiar they should, since it tends to mirror those in more Upper-Middle Class Anglo, and more Middle-Class suburban parts of Bexar County over the past 6 Years.

Now, the key question is since we have a fairly decent chunk of the Bexar County vote share here, can we narrow it down a bit more?

So, I'll roll through a few of the different areas and we'll do a quick peak of what's going on...

Let's start with a few of the NW Bexar County precincts not previously covered:


1.) Far NW (Precincts 3012 and 3126)

Here is a Census Tract map of the Anglo % of the population in these two precincts....

The non-shaded (White colored) areas on the map are likely nature preserves, or privately owned ranches up in the hill country part of NW S.A.

Best guess is these precincts are roughly 62% Anglo and 33% Latino, but much of the Latino population is under the age of 30, so Anglos represent a much higher share of the voting population.

MHI is $ 118k /Yr....

2012 PRES: (918) Total Votes    (24.7% DEM)--- (73.9% PUB)  + 49.2% PUB
2012 CD-23:                            (26.6% DEM)--- (69.2% PUB) + 42.6% PUB
2016 PRES: (1487 Total Votes) (33.3% DEM)--- (61.1% PUB)  + 27.8% PUB (+21.4% DEM SWING)
2016 CD-23:                           (27.2% DEM)--- (68.0% PUB)  + 40.8% PUB
2018 TX-SEN (1696 Votes)       (39.0% DEM)--- (60.7% PUB)  + 21.7% PUB
2018 CD-23:                           (33.9% DEM)--- (65.2% PUB)  + 31.3% PUB

Now let's take a brief look at some additional precincts in NW and Far Western Bexar County in CD-23:



These account for roughly 8.7% of the Bexar County portion of CD-23.

The Northern precincts are heavily Anglo Upper Middle-Class (53-38) with an MHI of $119k/Yr (At least the Census Block Group obviously overlapping with these precincts).



The Southern precincts still have a decent Anglo population, but are plurality Latino with a relatively large Black Population (9.2%), compared to many other parts of Metro San Antonio.

The MHI is $95.5k / Yr making this a solidly Upper Middle-Class part of Metro S.A.



Since, I'm trying to wrap up the Bexar County portion of CD-23, I'm not going to go as far into the Weeds and Seeds as I normally do, but instead consolidate the numbers from North and South Far West precincts....

Here are the raw votes from Far West Bexar:



So we see +3.3k votes added between the '12 and '16 Presidential election, and an additional (800) votes between the '18 TX-SEN and '16 PRES elections....  (Obviously a pretty fast growing part of Bexar).

DEM's flip the raw vote from + 900 Trump to + 35 BETO...

DEM's shave 1.1k vote margins off Hurd between '16 and '18 for CD-23.

Now let's look at the raw percentages....



We see a +24% Romney '12 area go to +10% for PRES in '16 and +22% for CD-23 turn around.

There was roughly a 10.4% swing towards BETO compared to HRC in '16, and +14.1% DEM swing from '16 to '18 for CD-23....

Apologies for the brief synopsis here, but would like to wrap up Bexar and then jump over to El Paso and maybe a few of the Rio Grande Counties, since there are other projects on the horizon...   Smiley
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« Reply #96 on: January 14, 2019, 10:39:08 pm »

I'm going to cross-post this from my 2018 General Election Precinct Level Results Posted by Government Sites thread, mainly because there are some folks that follow some of my posts on Atlas that aren't regular Forum users, or in many cases not even members of the Forum...

Here's a link to the thread for those of y'all out there to look at links to my State Posts with links to County Election Offices if you want to go grab data from some of those States with a more decentralized "County Level" precinct reporting mechanism....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=307483.msg6626000#msg6626000

I'll be periodically replacing this post as new Precinct level sources emerges....

2018 GE Precinct Results Posted by State and County Websites--- 1/14/19 Update:

Updated to include the following:

1.) Vermont now added for comprehensive Precinct Results from a Single Statewide Election Agency
(See below for list of States with a Centralized State Reporting Location). (14/14 Counties Reporting).

2.) Updated National Map for States, where I have official Precinct results from County offices, but not currently posted on County Websites. This includes (4) Counties in Oregon and (9) in Utah. PM me if interested in these precinct results....

3.) Updated California post to include Kings County (54/58 Counties Reporting).

4.) Updated Utah post and state numbers to include Morgan and Wayne Counties (29/29 Reporting--- (20 Officially on County Websites and 9 via alternative reliable sourcing).

5.) Updated Kansas to include Leavenworth County (41/105 Counties Reporting Precincts).

YES--- another decent sized Pop center and fairly Middle Class KC 'Burbs (!!!)

6.) Updated Michigan Post to include Missaukee County links... (77/83 Counties Reporting Precincts).

7.) Updated Kentucky Post to include Wayne County available via State Election Reporting Site (107/120 Counties Reporting Precincts).

8.) Updated Indiana post to include Tipton, Fountain, and Vanderburgh County links (55/92 Counties reporting precinct results).

Vanderburgh was a nice score as a County of 182,000 folks and critical battleground in the 2018 IN-SEN race (!!!)

9.) Updated Florida post to include Sumter and St Lucie County links. (65/67 Counties Reporting Precincts).

St. Lucie was a nice score as a County of 280,000, but I could only get it to work in Internet Explorer....

10.) Updated Pennsylvania post to include Armstrong and Juniata County Links (61/67 Counties Reporting Precincts).

My major issue with PA at this point is Delaware County (Pop 562,000). You can get results by Township and Municipality, but not by Ward / Borough which is going to be the closest thing to a "precinct" in PA....

11.) I did not go through County by County for Kansas, Texas, and Missouri yet to see if there are updates not already available on my State posts that link to County Election precinct data.

Here is the current state of the Map:

These are the Color Conventions Used (Although I'm testing out a different Map using 3-D Paint)

DARK GRAY = States where Precinct level Results are available from one Statewide Reporting Agency

DARK BLUE= States where Precinct level Results will likely be fully or partially available from a Statewide Reporting Agency.

CYAN / SKY BLUE = States without Precinct level results available from a Statewide Reporting Agency, so we have to turn to the Counties for relief.

LAVENDER = States where we have no precinct level results from State or County Reporting agencies, nor should we expect that to be the case.

NUMBERS by STATE= Number of Counties with precinct results available on either State or County links posted below or in independent posts on this thread.



Links to State Centralized Election Reporting Surfaces for Precinct Results:

Alabama:

https://www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/election-data

*** This one is SWEET and truly representative of Southern Hospitality.... simply click on the "Download Link" to the right by the election you want, and then you get a Zip file, which you then extract. Now you have a folder in Excel for each individual county, where you can open and view the precinct results.... ***

Alaska:

http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/18GENR/

http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/18GENR/data/resultsbyprecinct.txt

*** Need to scroll down to the bottom Statement of Votes Cast and pull precinct data by State district individually into a PDF format ****

*** Updated 11_25_18 to include link to Text based download as per Cynics comment.. :

"Alaska finally does have Excel-readable precinct data. You need to go to your link, RIGHT click on "Text by Precinct", and select save."

Arizona:

https://azsos.gov/precinct-level-results-county-2018-general-election

Arkansas:

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AR/92174/Web02-state.216038/#/access-to-races

*** See Arkansas Post on how to pull up precinct level results ***

Colorado:

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/91808/Web02-state.222648/#/rpt


Delaware:

https://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect18/elect18_general/html/index.shtml

Georgia:

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/91639/Web02-state.221451/#/access-to-races

*** Need to Download County by County ****

Hawaii:


https://elections.hawaii.gov/wp-content/results/precinct.pdf

Idaho:

https://sos.idaho.gov/elect/results/index.html

Illinois:

https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionResults.aspx?ID=jwAfLjnmELI%3d

Iowa:

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/results/precinctvotetotals2018general.html

***Select your County and download into Excel.... it's a bit annoying to have to do this County by County, but I'll take it ***

Kentucky:

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/91996/220209/Web01/en/summary.html

*** See Kentucky Post on how to pull up precinct results.... ***

Louisiana:

https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/Graphical

*** Then select election date, then select your election type, then click on Parish, and then precinct results (Any questions go up-thread and see my screenshots for LA on the Louisiana Post) ***

Maryland:

https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2018/election_data/index.html

*** This is a comprehensive result so ignore the name when you click on the GOV Election by Precinct... will add a post regarding how to d/l the data if there are any questions ***

Massachusetts:

http://electionstats.state.ma.us/

*** See my MASS post for detailed instructions on how to pull up precinct data ***

Minnesota:
[/b]
https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/Select/Download/115


Mississippi:

http://www.sos.ms.gov/Elections-Voting/Pages/2018-General-Election.aspx

*** Click on the Official County Recapitulation Sheet you are looking for ***


Montana:

http://mtelectionresults.gov/

*** Updated 2018 Precinct Level Results--- Select FED/STATE/Etc and then scroll over the right and then select the Export button, and then select "By Precinct".

Nebraska:

https://electionresults.sos.ne.gov/resultsCTY.aspx?type=SW&rid=8862&osn=102&map=CTY

*** Click on the export precinct results to Excel for your selected Contest, and it will generate a really nice spreadsheet with tabs for each County in the State (Awesome!) ***

Nevada:

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/election-information/precinct-level-results

*** Click on the now activated buttons to the top right "2018 GE... under the Statewide--- General Excel.zip or csv.zip ***


New Hampshire:

http://sos.nh.gov/18GenResults.aspx

*** Credit to Nyvin ***

New Mexico:

http://electionresults.sos.state.nm.us/resultsCTY.aspx?type=FED&rid=4898&osn=180&map=CTY

North Carolina:


https://er.ncsbe.gov/index.html?election_dt=11/06/2018&county_id=9&office=ALL&contest=0

*** THANKS Sorenroy for sharing this on another thread regarding the 2018 NC-09 potential Republican voter fraud.... Wink  ***

North Dakota:

https://results.sos.nd.gov/ResultsSW.aspx?text=All&type=SW&map=CTY

*** per cinyc... "(Click on Export --> Precinct for each race) ****

Ohio:

https://www.sos.state.oh.us/elections/election-results-and-data/2018-official-elections-results/

*** Thanks Trajan for letting us know this is publish and providing the 2018 link ***


Oklahoma:

https://www.ok.gov/elections/Election_Info/2018_November_General_Election.html

Rhode Island:

https://www.ri.gov/election/results/2018/general_election/west_warwick/3801/

*** See my detailed post on how to locate RI precinct Results ***


South Carolina:

https://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/92124/Web02-state.222648/#/cid/21500/c/Sumter

*** This one's virtually useless for the sake of exporting data, but you can pull up individual counties by race and see a map and raw precinct votes ***

South Dakota:

Updated to include Cinyc links...

http://electionresults.sd.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY (Statewide row races)
http://electionresults.sd.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=BQ&map=CTY (Statewide Ballot Intiatives)
http://electionresults.sd.gov/ResultsExport.aspx? (By-county exports of all races in the county by precinct)

Tennessee:

https://sos-tn-gov-files.tnsosfiles.com/Nov%202018%20General%20by%20Precinct.pdf

Vermont:

https://vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us/Index.html#/federal

*** basically it looks like you click on Contest Details and can export to Excel by race and see for example how the two precincts in Bennington Vermont voted for US-SEN in 2018 ***


Virginia:

https://apps.elections.virginia.gov/SBE_CSV/ELECTIONS/ELECTIONRESULTS/

Washington:


(This link includes precinct detail for every County in Washington State, excepting King County on one giant spreadsheet)

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Export.html

Now, wait we're missing the most populous county? Simple solution, go to the King County election site and grab your precinct data from here:

https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/2018/201811.aspx

*** Scroll down to the bottom to the "Final Precinct Level Election Results" and click on the comma delimited file, and next thing you know you'll have a file you can easily convert in Excel and do all the great stuff Excel can do to help sort and organize your data ***

West Virginia:

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/WV/92360/Web02-state.222648/#/access-to-races

*** ENR Engine... Scroll Down and click on County name, head over to right and download results for all races in the County by preferred file format (Including Excel--- YES!!!!). I could post some screens caps here, but most of y'all should be somewhat familiar by this now, if you've spent much time looking up precinct results and followed previous instructions from other State / County Precinct Reporting agencies ***


Wisconsin:

https://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/results

*** NOTE- Scroll Down to the Bottom and select the "Ward by Ward" Excel Spreadsheet for either US-SEN, US-HOUSE, State Sen, or GEN ASSEMBLY----    Thanks Gass for the source! ***

Wyoming:

https://soswy.state.wy.us/Elections/Docs/2018/2018GeneralResults.aspx

*** Have to download precinct results individually by County ***


There are a few States where in theory we will see Centralized Election Precinct Reporting at some point.... I'll believe it when I see, and will keep checking, but I don't like waiting for my precinct data when I'm researching a project....

Florida:

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/elections-data/precinct-level-election-results/

*** Tick Tock, Still waiting for FL, go to my Florida Post for links to County Level Precinct Results. NOTE: I cannot guarantee these links include recount numbers ****


Kansas:

http://www.kssos.org/elections/elections_statistics.html

*** This one is weird--- it appears that they only post precinct data for non Presidential Year elections??? (Precinct Data for 2010 and 2014 for example). Still check out my Kansas Post for detailed links to County Level Official Precinct Results ***

Michigan:

https://miboecfr.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cfr/precinct_srch.cgi

*** Go to my Michigan Post for links to County available precinct results ***

Oregon:

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Pages/electionhistory.aspx

*** Go the Right-hand Site and pull a Zip fill by precinct, but at this point only includes 2017 and 2018 Primary date... Go to my Oregon Post for links to County Level Election Results ***

I'll be going through and doing some housekeeping so don't be surprised if some of my posts disappear, I just don't want to lose any critical data, especially stuff like updates which helps give a timeline of how quickly we can expect to see results posted....
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« Reply #97 on: January 21, 2019, 05:27:59 pm »

I was wondering if anyone knows more about the voting pattern in Louisiana especially around urban / suburban areas. I don't know Louisiana at all, but for an area that has a fairly significant city (New Orleans) I am surprised there was no discussion of any swing towards Hillary in 2016 or possible shifts in congressional seats. Are there any of the high-education / high-income suburbs that swung towards Democrats in 2016 or 2018 in Louisiana?

I only ask because it seems that there was discussion about the Little Rock-based seat in Arkansas moving towards Democrats, in Mississippi Espy had a relatively close election thanks in part to swings in the Jackson area, and obviously Georgia, Texas, and even Oklahoma had some pretty impressive results for Democrats.

So what's up in Louisiana? Can someone with more knowledge explain in more detail what happened in 2016 there? And what are the best pathways forward for Democrats? Also what was John Bel Edwards's path to victory and hopefully to re-election?


I thought this might be interesting to take a peek at and look at some precinct level results for the 2012 and 2016 Presidential Elections in Upper-Income parts of Louisiana....

Haven't made it to New Orleans yet, but pulled the data for the three wealthiest places in Metro Baton Rouge....

Now, the caveat here is that Louisiana does not break down early voting by precinct for a given Parish, so there is always a chance that data could be distorted if there were shifts in early voting patterns in these communities.

Wealthiest Places in Metro Baton Rouge:

1.) Prairieville---- MHI- $ 95.8k/ Yr (Ascension Parish)--- Pop 29.7k

47% of 25+ > 4 Year Degree, 46% HS Degree. 78% Anglo, 10% Black, 5% Latino

2012: 2,643 Obama  (18.7%) , 11,272 Romney (79.5%)             +60.8% R
2016: 2,756 HRC      (18.8%),  11,228 Trump   (76.7%)             +57.9% R

+2.9% D Swing 2012 > 2016

2.) Westminster--- MHI $ 91.3k/Yr  (East Baton Rouge Parish)--- Pop 3.1k

68% of 25+ > 4 Year Degree, 32% HS Degree. 73% Anglo, 12% Black, 11% Asian,

2012: 347 Obama   (22.1%), 1,186 Romney     (75.4%)            +53.3% R
2016: 383 HRC       (27.8%),    872 Trump       (63.2%)             +35.4% R

+ 17.9% D Swing 2012 > 2016

3.) Shenandoah--- MHI $ 86.5k /Yr   (East Baton Rouge Parish)--- Pop 20.0k

53% of 25+ > 4 Yr Degree, 43% HS Degree. 73% Ango, 13% Black, 5% Asian, 4% Latino

*** Calculating the exact precincts are trickier because of the GiS mapping app, but I'm including precincts 3-3 A/B, 3-15 A/B, 3-38 A/B, 3-41 A/B, 3-43 A/B, 3-53 A/B ***

2012:  1,213 Obama (19.0%), 5,059 Romney (79.3%)             + 60.3% R
2016:  1,403 HRC     (23.5%), 4,201 Trump   (70.5%)              +47.0% R

+ 13.3% D Swing

So what does all of this tell us?

1.) There was minimal shifts in the fast growing exurban Baton Rouge Community of Prairieville between 2012 and 2016. HRC did not gain any increase in % over Obama 2012, and the marginal shifts in Republican vote margins were a result of voters shifting to 3rd Party Candidates.

Although the Democrats gained an additional 113 Votes between '12/'16 and the 'Pubs lost 44 Votes, the overall election day voter pool expanded by 463 Votes.

2.) There was a significant swing in the relatively small and highly educated community of Westminster between '12 and '16, although a good chunk of this came from a relatively high 3rd Party Voting % for an educated and affluent community (9.0% Others)...

Overall in addition to 3rd Party Candidates total election day votes dropped between '12 and '16, which in addition to the 3rd Party Votes accounted for a significant chunk of the '12 > '16 margin swing.

In terms of occupations there is an extremely high % of workers within Westminster in occupations such as Management / Business / Computers,Science & Math / Engineering.

3.) Shenandoah is a cross between Westminster & Prairieville in terms of Ethnic Demographics and Educational attainment, but did experience visible swings between '12 and '16 election day support for the Democratic Presidential candidate.

It does have a significantly higher % of the population working in the Manufacturing Industry (11.9%) and lower % in "Professional" Occupations.

There was a +200 increase in Dem votes between '12 and '16 and a drop of 800 'Pub votes in that same time range. Total election day votes dropped 420 between that time....

4.) So here's where it gets tricky.... without knowing EV /ED combined votes by precinct we don't really know the exact swings in these places.

Shenandoah and Prairieville both have significantly larger Black Populations than many other educated, suburban/exurban Metro areas in parts of the Country outside of the South, so to what extent if any were there variations in EV/ED votes by Ethnicity, since it appears odd that total votes would decrease between '12 and '16 in highly educated upper middle-class communities....

5.) Metro Baton Rouge is interesting, and was the key example of one of the breakdowns Chinni and Gimpel made in their book "Our Patchwork Nation", which they used to dissect the results of the 2008 Presidential Election, as representative of the category they called "Minority Central".

https://www.csmonitor.com/Books/Book-Reviews/2010/1027/Our-Patchwork-Nation

http://www.patchworknation.org/Minority-Central

6.) Obviously any extensive dissection of the 2016 Presidential Election results in Louisiana, should also look at the return of the "Katrina Refugees", including LA residents from a wide variety of backgrounds, and between '12 and '16 there was a huge number of these residents returning, especially from places like Metro Houson, DFW, etc....

Anyways--- hopefully this adds to a starting discussion to swings among Educated / Upper Middle-Class voters in Louisiana between the 2012 and 2016 Presidential Elections....

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