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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  Make A CD Map for Your House, (and if eligible), Governor, and Senator Races.
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Poll
Question: Who Would You Vote For In A Two Way Matchup?
Bagel23 (D)   -16 (47.1%)
Dan Bongino (R)   -10 (29.4%)
Undecided   -1 (2.9%)
Abstain   -7 (20.6%)
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Total Voters: 34

Author Topic: Make A CD Map for Your House, (and if eligible), Governor, and Senator Races.  (Read 4229 times)
Prolocutor Bagel23
Bagel23
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« on: April 01, 2018, 07:59:10 pm »

Here is My Guess:

House:

Ps. The four 90-100% dem seats are running unopposed.

I think the GOP wins the statewide ballot here 55-43.

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Gubna:

I think Abbott wins 59-39.

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Senate:

I think Cruz wins 54-44

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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2018, 12:28:19 pm »

House (Gianforte +5):

Img


Senate (Tester +3):

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#KavanaughForPrison
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« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2018, 04:15:18 pm »

District 1 is Safe R for everything.

Districts 4, 5, and 7 are Safe D for everything.

District 3 and 8 are Likely D in the gubernatorial race, and Safe D in everything else.

District 2 is Lean D in the gubernatorial race, and Safe D in everything else.

District 6 is Lean R in the gubernatorial race, Likely D in the senate race, and Safe D in the house race.
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Alt-Male
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« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2018, 08:54:46 pm »

Nothing changes anywhere. Maybe Budd's district falls if the wave's strong enough.
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#KavanaughForPrison
Solid4096
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« Reply #4 on: April 02, 2018, 08:59:46 pm »

Nothing changes anywhere. Maybe Budd's district falls if the wave's strong enough.

Districts 02, 08, 09, and 13 could all fall depending on the size of the wave.
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whitesox130
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« Reply #5 on: April 02, 2018, 10:17:56 pm »

House (Gianforte +5):

Img


Senate (Tester +3):

Img

Wow, that looked difficult.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #6 on: April 03, 2018, 09:06:49 am »

Wow, that looked difficult.

I know, right?! Glad that you appreciate the effort I put into this.
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Lok
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« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2018, 01:01:28 am »

2016: Victoria
Red: Labor (35.58%) (2PP: 51.83)
Blue: Liberal (37.01%) (2PP: 48.16)
Dark Green: Nationals (4.75%)
Light Green: Greens (13.13%)
Dark Grey: Independent (2.72%)

Rural & Provincial: https://gyazo.com/b4298ab6a094d185a951738a6bfceb86
Melbourne: https://gyazo.com/3d3e7f033194608305df1058f28f0177
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#KamalaIsACop
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« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2018, 01:56:13 am »

if you think imma do maps for my 53 districts you tripping
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MB
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« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2018, 02:26:13 am »

All incumbents will (almost surely) keep their seats. Walden’s district will be closer than usual.

Brown will win districts 1, 3, and 4. The Republican will win 2 and 5.
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DTC
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« Reply #10 on: April 04, 2018, 03:43:08 pm »

No D gains in the house. Some districts get within 5-8% but that's about it.

Abrams has a small chance at beating Kemp, but not too confident about it right now.

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Ohio more D than Texas
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« Reply #11 on: April 15, 2018, 05:47:52 pm »

House: All districts vote for Democrats.

Senate: All go to Warren, except possibly 9 and 2.

Governor: Baker wins 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, and 9, Democrat wins 1, 5, and 7.
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Chateaubriand Pact
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« Reply #12 on: April 15, 2018, 06:47:12 pm »

My most optimistic predictions (rough estimates):

District 1: Donald Norcross 85%, Menendez 75%
District 2: Jeff Van Drew 59%, Hugin 55%
District 3: Tom MacArthur 49%, Hugin 52%
District 4: Chris Smith 59%, Hugin 56%
District 5: Josh Gottheimer 55%, Menendez 51%
District 6: Frank Pallone 70%, Menendez 67%
District 7: Leonard Lance 52%, Hugin 55%
District 8: Albio Sires 80%, Menendez 85%
District 9: Bill Pascrell 85%, Menendez 80%
District 10: Don Payne 90%, Menendez 90%
District 11: Jay Webber 50.5%, Hugin 55%
District 12: B. Watson Coleman 70%, Menendez 70%
Statewide: Menendez 57%-42% (due to lower urban turnout)

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Jimmie
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« Reply #13 on: April 17, 2018, 05:46:52 pm »

Missouri Senate

CD 1 80 to 18 McCaskill
CD 2 48 to 48 Toss Up (McCaskill probably needs to carry this district to win statewide)
CD 3 61 to 36 Hawley
CD 4  59 to 38 Hawley
CD 5 61 to 37 McCaskill (McCaskill probably needs to get close to 2/3 of the vote her to win)
CD 6  57 to 41 Hawley (This district will be interesting. Hawley wins obviously but margin is critical. district has parts of KC suburbs and previous degrees of elasticity.
CD 7 65 to 32 Hawley
CD 8  64 to 34 Hawley (We better hope this district retains a degree of elasticity)
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Lok
lok1999
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« Reply #14 on: April 18, 2018, 05:13:05 am »

2016 Senate, coloured by party who got the highest first preference vote in the electorate

https://gyazo.com/57287705b2bab1f7825525d60e596670
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #15 on: April 19, 2018, 01:50:23 pm »

Nothing happens in the House (tho if Walden somehow loses I will be so happy Kiss)

Kate Brown wins with CD's 1,3, but loses 2. 4 and 5 will be contested, though 4 leans Brown.

No one wins anything for senate cuz there's no election
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Frenchy
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« Reply #16 on: April 20, 2018, 12:49:22 pm »

House
CD1: Crawford landslide over Desai
CD2: Tucker +1.5 over Hill
CD3: Womack landslide over Mahony
CD4: Westerman +15-+20 over Shamel
Governor
CD1: Hutchinson sweep
CD2: Hutchinson wins by 15
CD3: Hutchinson sweep
CD4: Hutchinson sweep
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Former President Weatherboy1102
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« Reply #17 on: April 20, 2018, 01:51:49 pm »

House:
01: Sanford wins by a good margin against some random dem
02: Wilson wins by 20% over Dem
03: Duncan wins by 40% over Geren
04: Random greenville R wins by 10% over Dem
05: Parnell wins by 1.5% over Norman
06: Clyburn wins by 20% or more
07: Rice wins by 10%

Governor: basically the same margins except 05 goes very narrowly for McMaster
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #18 on: June 20, 2018, 11:38:59 pm »

House:
01: Sanford wins by a good margin against some random dem
02: Wilson wins by 20% over Dem
03: Duncan wins by 40% over Geren
04: Random greenville R wins by 10% over Dem
05: Parnell wins by 1.5% over Norman
06: Clyburn wins by 20% or more
07: Rice wins by 10%

Governor: basically the same margins except 05 goes very narrowly for McMaster

Care to change this?
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Lok
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« Reply #19 on: June 21, 2018, 12:57:35 am »

Victoria, Australian 2019
Liberal: Blue
National: Dark Green
Green: What do you think Tongue
Independent: Grey
Labor:
-slightly lighter red: notional retain
-much lighter red: Gain

Regional Victoria
Img


Melbourne
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #20 on: June 21, 2018, 05:52:32 am »

I can't see anything other than the 7-2 map in Tennessee this year in any race.  Maybe, TN-2 (Knoxville) or TN-8 (ancestrally Dem rural West Tennessee plus rich GOP Memphis suburbs)  could flip in the Senate race, but only if Bredesen is winning by at least a few points.  All 7 GOP districts are more Republican than TN as a whole.
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