Is Doug Ducey (AZ) threatened at all?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Given the Dems are hyping up their potential gains in Arizona, I was wondering whether Ducey is under any danger? I don't really know much about the Dems opposing him, or really how he is seen in the state, but I am curious.

[Webnicz]

Only one poll released has shown Ducey with a lead and it was against Farley, the Garcia v Ducey matchups show Garcia leading. What I find interesting is that Ducey hasn't released any internal polling of his own. This isn't surprising considering Ducey likely has the same people Flake had, and that same team did not release any internal polling for Flake because it likely had bad numbers for Ducey.

This would explain why the Republican Governors Association reserved such a hefty ad buy in AZ, they probably know Ducey is more vulnerable than Cook/Sabato believe.

Lets not forget the past few months have not been great for Ducey starting from the raises he gave his staff, the death from a self driving Uber that he allowed to be tested in Arizona, and his reaction to the upcoming teacher shortage. A teacher strike is also on the horizon.

Not sure why some are rating him as far as Safe

[TheSaint250]

lolno

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

lolno

?

Arizona was only Trump + 3 (and dems did surprisingly well on the statelevel) and Ducey isn't exactly popular (teachers are paid terribly in the state thanks to low taxes). He could still win, but you're deluding yourself if you think he isn't threatened in any way.

[TheSaint250]

lolno

?

Arizona was only Trump + 3 (and dems did surprisingly well on the statelevel) and Ducey isn't exactly popular (teachers are paid terribly in the state thanks to low taxes). He could still win, but you're deluding yourself if you think he isn't threatened in any way.

Ah, my mistake, I thought Ducey had higher approval ratings, though 42-36 isn't too bad news (though you're right in saying that the strikes will probably have some effect on him).

He probably won't lose in the end unless the wave is bigger than expected, though.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

lolno

?

Arizona was only Trump + 3 (and dems did surprisingly well on the statelevel) and Ducey isn't exactly popular (teachers are paid terribly in the state thanks to low taxes). He could still win, but you're deluding yourself if you think he isn't threatened in any way.

Ah, my mistake, I thought Ducey had higher approval ratings, though 42-36 isn't too bad news (though you're right in saying that the strikes will probably have some effect on him).

He probably won't lose in the end unless the wave is bigger than expected, though.

Yeah we'll see how he handles the teacher strikes. Hopefully it goes well and teachers get the pay they feel they deserve. Teachers pay has been cut across America because of the Great Depression and only some of the states have put funding back since. Oklahoma raised teacher pay after the threat of strike but it was a lot less than people wanted.

[Progressive]

I think he's cautious but not yet threatened. He's definitely favored, but a very energetic base for Democrats could threaten re-election. I think of it as the opposite of North Carolina 2016.

Cooper won by a smidgeon (think Sinema), Trump won by 4 points and Burr won by 6 points. I think Ducey thinks that this election could emerge on this spectrum, from a narrow Dem win to a solid but not sweeping mid-single-digit win.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

He seems more likely to lose than not.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Probably not but it could happen. Only if the potential Demcoratic wave is big enough and if the Senate election gives Sinema some coattails for whoever the Democratic Gubernatorial nominee is.

[Cactus Jack]

Garcia leads him in all polling released so far, though it's super-narrow. With Arpaio almost a lock to be at the top of the ticket this year, no Republican is safe.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'd rate it lean R at the moment, but closer to toss-up than likely R. Maybe Sinema winning the senate by four or five points is just barely enough for the Democrats to win the governorship if there isn't a lot of vote splitting.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'd rate it lean R at the moment, but closer to toss-up than likely R. Maybe Sinema winning the senate by four or five points is just barely enough for the Democrats to win the governorship if there isn't a lot of vote splitting.

If Arpaio gets nominated, we might see more vote-splitting than normal. But maybe not.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The field strikes me as a pack of B-listers, and Ducey has been a pretty bland, Generic R type Governor, so probably not. Granted, if the Senate Race ends up being Sinema vs. Arpaio, we'll have to do a serious reevaluation of not only this race, but every race in the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, the closeness of the Sinema campaign running against the GOP in the Fall will make this a close race, after all.  And Dems come Nov, if its a blue wave will make AZ a Democratic state.

[Orser67]

I'm surprised Sabato/Cook/IE all have AZ at Likely R. I guess they give the incumbent the benefit of the doubt, Dems have a lot of other targets, and the Democratic candidates for governor aren't particularly impressive, but this still seems more like a Lean R race to me.

[Cactus Jack]

I'm surprised Sabato/Cook/IE all have AZ at Likely R. I guess they give the incumbent the benefit of the doubt, Dems have a lot of other targets, and the Democratic candidates for governor aren't particularly impressive, but this still seems more like a Lean R race to me.

It seems that way on paper, but actually Garcia has been surprisingly solid for someone whose only experience with public office is nearly beating Diane Douglas in 2014. He's a fantastic fundraiser and he has the absolutely critical charisma factor that Farley lacks.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Do you think Sinema could create a coattail effect for the Democratic nominee in November? I can see that happening.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Yes, he is the underdog.

[Oryxslayer]

Do you think Sinema could create a coattail effect for the Democratic nominee in November? I can see that happening.

Based on the (Present) fundamentals there need to be some Sinema coattails for Ducey to be threatened. Obviously if Arpaio or Ward are the senate nominees, there is even less incentive for Rep's to show up and vote, and more incentives for those that do to cast dem votes. Now these fundamentals may change, a teachers strike for instance can tank approvals, but Sinema walking away on the back of her moderate credentials is key to dem chances.

[Devils30]

Could AZ be like Wisconsin was in 2010 and take a left turn this year?

[Skill and Chance]

Could AZ be like Wisconsin was in 2010 and take a left turn this year?

I think this is a reasonable interpretation of the election results and polling we have seen so far.

[NOVA Green]

Could AZ be like Wisconsin was in 2010 and take a left turn this year?

I think this is a reasonable interpretation of the election results and polling we have seen so far.

Dems would def need to up their game dramatically with irregular and off-year election voters that tend to skew quite a bit younger and more Latino than the electorate at large...

Still, one must certainly wonder if "Generic Rep" only narrowly won against "Generic Dem" in CD-08, to what extent a "Generic Rep GOV" is going to get hit hard....

Also a few things such as the effort to overturn the Lesko "school vouchers" bill that she sponsored and the GOV signed into law will be on the NOV ballot as part of a Citizens Referendum...

Not sure if Legal Weed will be on the ballot in '18...  (Increased Millennial Turnout)

We have a US-SEN race going on, where the 'Pub brand appears to be going rapidly down the toilet even in their ancestral Maricopa County heartlands....

Let me ask you, what could possibly go wrong for a "Generic Republican" Governor in an off-year election in Arizona come November 2018?

[KingSweden]

Do you think Sinema could create a coattail effect for the Democratic nominee in November? I can see that happening.

Based on the (Present) fundamentals there need to be some Sinema coattails for Ducey to be threatened. Obviously if Arpaio or Ward are the senate nominees, there is even less incentive for Rep's to show up and vote, and more incentives for those that do to cast dem votes. Now these fundamentals may change, a teachers strike for instance can tank approvals, but Sinema walking away on the back of her moderate credentials is key to dem chances.

[Maxwell]

Polling shows this race as a tossup. Obviously ducey is threatened.

[Webnicz]

This past week has probably been Ducey worst week ever.

Also today the RGA announced even more ad buys. I think this goes to show that the RGA and Ducey have more information than we do that indicate that he is more vulnerable than we think. This is further noted by the lack of polling that would have been released showing Ducey blowing out any of his gen election match ups.

This is a similar situation that Jeff Flake was in, and AZ republicans usually use the same people, I assume they are the ones telling them to not release their internal poll numbers because they likely aren't good.