MN-Gov: Pawlently in

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/TimPawlenty/status/981984828466741248

http://www.startribune.com/tim-pawlenty-makes-it-official-he-s-running-for-governor-again/478905653/

Didn't see a thread, so might as well create one.

Tossup for me. Also:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/981985190481448961

[MasterJedi]

Trump is President, Likely D.

[Mr. Smith]

Bayh Bayh

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Bayh Bayh

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bayh Bayh

[Doimper]

Bayh Bayh

[NewYorkExpress]

Move this one from Likely D to Tossup tilt/D.

Democrats still are a narrow favorite, but Pawlenty is a strong recruit. However, Republicans probably would refer to have him running in either Senate race, Paulsen in the other Senate race, and maybe Norm Coleman for Governor.

[Ebsy]

Yawn.

[Holmes]

Toss up? Really?

[LimoLiberal]

It's fairly hackish that Kondik keeps TN-Sen at Likely R even as the highly popular former democratic governor who won every county is polling ahead, but immediately moves MN-Gov to tossup as the unpopular former republican governor who never got a majority enters.

[Torrain]

The real atlas question is: who’s the stronger recruit, Pawlenty or Bredesden? (Discuss with maps)

Edit: darn, Limo beat me to it.

[NewYorkExpress]

The real atlas question is: who’s the stronger recruit, Pawlenty or Bredesden? (Discuss with maps)

Edit: darn, Limo beat me to it.

Pawlenty

Trump almost won Minnesota. Clinton didn't come close in Tennessee.

However, I can see a scenario where both Pawlenty and Bredesden win in November.

[LimoLiberal]

The real atlas question is: who’s the stronger recruit, Pawlenty or Bredesden? (Discuss with maps)

Edit: darn, Limo beat me to it.

Pawlenty

Trump almost won Minnesota. Clinton didn't come close in Tennessee.

However, I can see a scenario where both Pawlenty and Bredesden win in November.

Ummm, the strength of a recruit is not dependent on how democratic their state is.
 

[Adam Griffin]

There is, of course, a pathway for the GOP in Minnesota, but it's a very strained one under even neutral conditions and almost always requires a significant vote-split (if I recall correctly, the GOP hasn't won any statewide majority since 1994). Given the national climate at the moment, winning seems highly improbable now.

At best, perhaps Pawlenty as a candidate could negate the effects of the wave for his contest alone, but even then, the natural lean of the state would still be present. I think it will take some sort of major internal event in the state to give Pawlenty any chance. MN's beginning to shift, though, and it won't be this way forever.

[Virginiá]

Doesn't seem like a big recruiting success imo. His post-politics lobbying career (which has doomed other politicians), combined with his plurality wins and near loss in 2006, and his bad approval ratings towards the end of his tenure, suggest that he may be a weak opponent in a year that is shaping up to be very unfavorable for Republicans.

http://editions.lib.umn.edu/smartpolitics/2010/03/07/tim-pawlenty-job-approval-rati/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_gubernatorial_election,_2002
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_gubernatorial_election,_2006

[_]

Lean D

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I've always had this at Lean D, Gov races have never not been competitive in the last couple of decades or so. Dayton's six point 2014 victory was actually a relative landslide Gubernatorially, and Dems are fools if they think this race will be easy.

That being said, his governorship is remembered as a collective "meh". There's no #resistance that's going to crop up against him, but no one jerks off to him either. Also, his Presidential candidacy was a prequel to Jeb!, and this is a late entry by what this state is used to. I get the whole "He won in 2006, he'll win this time" argument but if it's true let's see a pollster reflect it. No rating change for now.

[Pandaguineapig]

Tilt D, if he can raise enough money through his contacts he could pummel whoever gets through the democratic primary. On a side note, why did he wait until now? It likely would have made much more sense for him to run for governor or senate in 2014 than a Trump midterm this year, unless of course he views a return to the governorship as his chance at 2024

[MAINEiac4434]

Likely D --> Safe D

Retreads are always terrible. See Bayh, Evan; Feingold, Russ (); Thompson, Tommy.

Also are we forgetting he never won a majority, left office with abysmal approval ratings, and the blue wave is coming?

[MAINEiac4434]

It's fairly hackish that Kondik keeps TN-Sen at Likely R even as the highly popular former democratic governor who won every county is polling ahead, but immediately moves MN-Gov to tossup as the unpopular former republican governor who never got a majority enters.

I like the new, less concern-trollish you.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Likely D --> Safe D

Retreads are always terrible. See Bayh, Evan; Feingold, Russ (); Thompson, Tommy.

Also are we forgetting he never won a majority, left office with abysmal approval ratings, and the blue wave is coming?

And embarrassed himself with a pathetic run for President in 2012. He's old news though he is also probably the best that the Minnesota GOP could get. I still don't see him winning. Likely D.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Cool! He's not gonna win.

[Free Bird]

You’re all conveniently forgetting that he won in 2006 when Minnesota was more blue.

[Dr. Arch]

Likely D --> Safe D

Retreads are always terrible. See Bayh, Evan; Feingold, Russ (); Thompson, Tommy.

Also are we forgetting he never won a majority, left office with abysmal approval ratings, and the blue wave is coming?

 

[KingSweden]

It's fairly hackish that Kondik keeps TN-Sen at Likely R even as the highly popular former democratic governor who won every county is polling ahead, but immediately moves MN-Gov to tossup as the unpopular former republican governor who never got a majority enters.