2018 TN Senate County Map
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Author Topic: 2018 TN Senate County Map  (Read 2751 times)
Dr. MB
MB
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« on: April 05, 2018, 06:12:00 PM »

What will it look like?

Obviously Bredesen will win Shelby, Davidson, and Haywood, but will he manage to bring back some of the ancestral D counties that were voting Democratic until 10 years ago?

Or will he go the other route and win Knox, Chattanooga, and the suburbs?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2018, 06:14:31 PM »

What will it look like?

Obviously Bredesen will win Shelby, Davidson, and Haywood, but will he manage to bring back some of the ancestral D counties that were voting Democratic until 10 years ago?

Or will he go the other route and win Knox, Chattanooga, and the suburbs?

I think a mix of both, honestly.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2018, 06:25:40 PM »

Something like this:


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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2018, 06:32:42 PM »


Jackson County voted for Obama in 2008. No way it votes for Blackburn over Bredesen.
Lauderdale and Madison are also likely to vote for Bredesen.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2018, 06:34:40 PM »


Jackson County voted for Obama in 2008. No way it votes for Blackburn over Bredesen.
Lauderdale and Madison are also likely to vote for Bredesen.
I'm not so sure about Lauderdale, but you're right about Jackson and Madison.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2018, 06:35:48 PM »

Some maps for those interested:







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TexArkana
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2018, 06:43:45 PM »

Can't see your maps, please fix them.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2018, 06:44:29 PM »


Log into your account on the main uselectionatlas website to see them.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2018, 08:55:42 PM »

This is what we're looking for in a potential win:



My above map was built off of a composite of his 2002 gubernatorial race, the 2006 Senate race and 2012/2016 presidentials (plus a bit of subjective gut instinct): basically everything either somewhat recent or somewhat competitive. He's definitely not going to pull 70% in the Senate race - and even if he did, the map would look quite a bit different than his win in '06 I imagine.

The GOP counties aren't as terribly unfavorable to him as they look in that map: basically Bredesen is getting around 42% of the vote in all of them combined (and 60% in the Democratic counties).
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #9 on: April 05, 2018, 09:10:32 PM »

This is what we're looking for in a potential win:



My above map was built off of a composite of his 2002 gubernatorial race, the 2006 Senate race and 2012/2016 presidentials (plus a bit of subjective gut instinct): basically everything either somewhat recent or somewhat competitive. He's definitely not going to pull 70% in the Senate race - and even if he did, the map would look quite a bit different than his win in '06 I imagine.

The GOP counties aren't as terribly unfavorable to him as they look in that map: basically Bredesen is getting around 42% of the vote in all of them combined (and 60% in the Democratic counties).
You don't think he'd win Houston and Humphreys?
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