Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 07, 2019, 07:25:51 am
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Tegridy Farms, Apocrypha)
  Social Conservative Star
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Social Conservative Star  (Read 475 times)
Barron
adamevans
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 926
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 12, 2019, 09:55:02 pm »
« edited: April 13, 2019, 09:48:13 am by Barron »


2008 Primaries Begin; Huckabee, Obama win upsets in Iowa Caucuses

In a big blow to Governor Mitt Romney and Senator Hillary Clinton, former long-shot candidates capsized a major upset in last night's Iowa Caucus, the first caucus in the nation. Governor Huckabee won a large victory of 10% over Governor Mitt Romney, despite competitive polling, and Senator Obama blew Hillary Clinton to 3rd place, winning by 8% over Senator Edwards. Governor Huckabee's message of social conservatism, with a hint of economic populism, seemingly resonated with enthusiastic caucus-goers in Iowa, while Senator Obama's change-oriented message grasped him his massive upset. It's yet to be seen if they can sustain this momentum and win the nomination in what was once a long-shot candidacy.
Logged
Barron
adamevans
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 926
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2019, 10:41:06 pm »
« Edited: April 13, 2019, 09:44:47 am by Barron »


Election Analysis: CNN

The wins for Huckabee & Obama last night are huge, what does it mean for the direction of both parties?

With respect to Obama's win, it certainly means the Democratic Party is moving more towards the anti-establishment left. With New Hampshire coming up, Hillary Clinton does not look like the favorite there. If she suffers two massive blows in both of the first contests, her campaign may be over before it began. Secretary Clinton will have to capsize a comeback of her own to make this primary competitive again.

And the Republicans?

Unlike Obama, Huckabee doesn't look favored at all in New Hampshire, but his win tonight does indeed come as a shock and puts his candidacy from long-shot status to a serious contender. A win in South Carolina would certainly catapult him to the front-runner, but he'll have to suffer a blow in New Hampshire before-so. Governor Huckabee, the social conservative candidate, would pull the GOP's status as a more conservative party on social issues, though his more moderate stance on economic issues aligns him slightly to the left of President Bush.

And how would these two square up in a general election?

Senator Obama seems to lead in all swing states in hypothetical polls, with exceptions in Missouri and North Carolina. Mike Huckabee would certainly turn out evangelicals and other religious voters in droves whilst improving Republican margins in the south. Huckabee's alignment with civil rights and religious African-American organizations might cut slightly into Obama's appeal to southern African-Americans should he be the nominee, but it's no doubt Barack Obama would carry African-Americans by a wide margin in a general.

And what are the chances for McCain & Romney to make their own comeback?

New Hampshire will certainly be a crossroads for their campaign to make comebacks. While Romney is the favorite, McCain is certainly giving the Massachusetts Governor a run for his money. McCain would also have to eke out a win in South Carolina to capsize a comeback. It remains to be seen how Huckabee's momentum plays out after New Hampshire and if it is large enough to make a considerable presence in the first primary.

Logged
Barron
adamevans
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 926
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2019, 03:02:12 am »
« Edited: April 13, 2019, 03:23:15 am by Barron »


McCain highlights maverick record, independence at GOP debate

At a crucial debate before the New Hampshire primary, Senator John McCain claimed victory as he highlighted his record as a conservative maverick and touted plans to 'fundamentally shut down terrorism,' while slamming Romney for not having the 'credentials nor experience' to be Commander-in-Chief. With the debate mostly a brawl between McCain and Romney, both took 1st and 2nd in post-debate polls, though McCain easily emerged as the winner, giving him a critical boost before the New Hampshire primary. With the primary only in a few days, Senator McCain especially emphasized what brought him to victory in this debate while campaigning. As McCain edges up on Romney in this primaries, it seems like his to win.

Who won the GOP Debate?
McCain - 37%
Romney - 24%
Huckabee - 15%
Paul - 10%
Thompson - 10%
Hunter - 4%


Obama holds momentum, wins New Hampshire; McCain scores upset

Despite strong efforts from the Clinton campaign to perform an upset in the New Hampshire primary, Obama managed to pull out a win, though by a smaller margin than expected, in the New Hampshire primary, while McCain managed to pull off what Clinton could not. Catapulted by large turnout from independents, Senator McCain scored a 6-point upset in the New Hampshire primary trouncing Governor Romney and Iowa Victor Mike Huckabee, putting him into serious contender status, though just short of being a front-runner. His supporters enthused, he delivered a fiery victory speech, pledging to 'bring an end to special interest grab over Congress.' Contenders Huckabee and Romney promised to take the fight to South Carolina and other primary states. Romney came out wounded after two major losses, though the Huckabee campaign appeared to shrug it off as they gear up for a fight in South Carolina, still flexing their own upset in Iowa.

And the less mentions of poor Rudy Giuliani, the better.

Obama's supporters were monumentally enthused as the Illinois Senator told the crowd that Iowa 'was not a fluke' and doubled down on his message of change. Senator Clinton attempted to enthuse supporters by claiming a comeback, only losing by a few points, and reminded voters of President Bill Clinton's near-upset in the New Hampshire primary that threw him to the nomination. While Senator Clinton's supporters are much less enthused than was before the Iowa Caucus, they certainly aren't giving up any time soon, and while Obama has solidified his status as front-runner, it's almost certain to be a contested primary season.



McCain Strongest Against Obama, Poll Suggests

As South Carolina etches up, good news came in for the McCain campaign with their momentum growing. A poll between all major GOP contenders and front-runner Barack Obama showed McCain only losing by two points, with Huckabee and Romney both losing by five respectively. McCain has attempted to paint himself as the most electable candidate. With primaries only growing closer, McCain must capsize his comeback with a win in the South Carolina primary, which has been neck-and-neck between Governor Huckabee and Senator McCain.

McCain vs. Obama: General Election
Obama - 47%
McCain - 45%
Undecided - 8%

Romney vs. Obama: General Election
Obama - 50%
Romney - 45%
Undecided - 5%

Huckabee vs. Obama: General Election
Obama - 45%
Huckabee - 40%
Undecided - 15%
Logged
Ishan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,244
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2019, 06:28:08 am »


Election Analysis: CNN

The wins for Huckabee & Obama last night are huge, what does it mean for the direction of both parties?

With respect to Obama's win, it certainly means the Democratic Party is moving more towards the anti-establishment left. With New Hampshire coming up, Hillary Clinton does not look like the favorite there. If she suffers two massive blows in both of the first contests, her campaign may be over before it began. Secretary Clinton will have to capsize a comeback of her own to make this primary competitive again.

And the Republicans?

Unlike Obama, Huckabee doesn't look favored at all in New Hampshire, but his win tonight does indeed come as a shock and puts his candidacy from long-shot status to a serious contender. A win in South Carolina would certainly catapult him to the front-runner, but he'll have to suffer a blow in New Hampshire before-so. Governor Huckabee, the social conservative candidate, would pull the GOP's status as a more moderate party on social issues, though his more moderate stance on economic issues aligns him slightly to the left of President Bush.

And how would these two square up in a general election?

Senator Obama seems to lead in all swing states in hypothetical polls, with exceptions in Missouri and North Carolina. Mike Huckabee would certainly turn out evangelicals and other religious voters in droves whilst improving Republican margins in the south. Huckabee's alignment with civil rights and religious African-American organizations might cut slightly into Obama's appeal to southern African-Americans should he be the nominee, but it's no doubt Barack Obama would carry African-Americans by a wide margin in a general.

And what are the chances for McCain & Romney to make their own comeback?

New Hampshire will certainly be a crossroads for their campaign to make comebacks. While Romney is the favorite, McCain is certainly giving the Massachusetts Governor a run for his money. McCain would also have to eke out a win in South Carolina to capsize a comeback. It remains to be seen how Huckabee's momentum plays out after New Hampshire and if it is large enough to make a considerable presence in the first primary.


I was thinking of Huckabee TL yesterday!
Logged
jakobisgood
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 277
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.16, S: -2.26

P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2019, 12:48:28 pm »

very good very good
Logged
Barron
adamevans
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 926
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 13, 2019, 12:52:50 pm »


Looks can be deceiving
Logged
Barron
adamevans
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 926
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 13, 2019, 02:13:48 pm »


Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton win Michigan easily, after devastating losses

With Michigan's primary rolled back to January, Governor Romney and Senator Clinton coasted to easy victories despite major losses in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney and Clinton were both expected to win easily here, Obama not even appearing on the ballot, but it makes the win no less sweet as both contenders attempt to rebound after early state losses. Romney thanked the state his father governed for 'proving that the campaign was still alive' while Clinton slammed Obama for 'ignoring the voices of Michigan' and vowed a fight in Nevada and South Carolina. Huckabee managed to perform only slightly worse than McCain, and claimed that he was 'heavily out-fundraised' in Michigan. Both campaigns are easily shaking off this loss and supporters are still heavily enthused after wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.


Mike Huckabee makes strong final impression before critical primaries

In the final days before the South Carolina primary, the Huckabee campaign put their candidate on a series of local and national media interviews to bid a strong final impression on voters, appealing to socially-conservative minded voters and touting his career as a pastor. Putting a focus on the sanctity of abortion and marriage, the Huckabee campaign released a series of campaign ads and other media outreaches to finally solidify the Arkansas Governor's status as the candidate for religious voters. In interviews, he would affirm his commitments to tax cuts, a balanced budget, and other economically conservative proposals. He branded himself as a conservative outsider, stealing McCain's anti-special interest campaign.

This, all while Governor Romney neglected South Carolina, hoping to lock up the Nevada caucus as he attempts to make a comeback.



McCain gaffes: "I voted against the Bush Tax Cuts before I was for it."

Holding an unscripted town hall in South Carolina, McCain attempted to backpedal on his vote against Bush's tax cuts and distinguish himself as a maverick, but made a major gaffe in the process. Answering an audience member, he said he 'voted against the Bush Tax Cuts before' he 'was for it' reminiscent of John Kerry's slip-up a few years prior. As the Arizona Senator planned for a fight in South Carolina by appealing to more conservative-minded voters, this quote is sure to ring in the heads of voters on headlines just days before the primaries.

The McCain campaign is already clapping back at the media by saying it was 'out of context' in a press release, claiming that the Senator voted for them in 2006 and touting his Senate votes being aligned with the President 95% of the time. With the primary approaching in only a few days, polls continue to show both candidates neck-and-neck, and only the final tally will show the effects of this gaffe. If the McCain camp hopes to win in this critical primary and solidify a comeback, they better hope that the primary is too close for the gaffe to have any considerable effect on voter's minds.


RCP: South Carolina GOP Primary
Huckabee - 27%
McCain - 27%
Romney - 15%
Thompson - 15%
Paul - 5%
Giuliani - 3%
Undecided - 8%
Logged
Representative LouisvilleThunder
LouisvilleThunder
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,806
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.55, S: 0.70

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 13, 2019, 04:49:47 pm »

This looks cool.
Logged
Grassr00ts
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,666
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: 0.70

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2019, 09:27:59 pm »

Continue.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC