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December 12, 2019, 04:41:12 pm
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Kutasoff Hedzoff, Apocrypha)
  Four More Years II- the Third Obama Administration
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Solid4096
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« Reply #50 on: April 26, 2018, 02:41:52 pm »

So is there going to be a WI-07 special election now?
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2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable
Solid4096
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« Reply #51 on: April 26, 2018, 02:44:47 pm »

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mistake spotted?
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #52 on: April 26, 2018, 02:54:49 pm »

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mistake spotted?

Yep. Thanks!

So is there going to be a WI-07 special election now?

I guess. Also special elections coming for Ros-Lehtinen's and Scott's House seats.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #53 on: April 27, 2018, 05:02:57 am »

May 7th, 2017

Emmanuel Macron elected French President, easily dispatching far-left opponent



JEFFERSON CITY - The healthcare clash is approaching an end, as White House Press Secretary confirmed that the bill will be presented before the Senate "in the coming days". With at least 49 votes secure for the Guaranteed Healthcare Act and at least 46 secure against it, the fate of the most ambitious healthcare reform in decades hinges upon the shoulders of three Senators, all of whom are up for a difficult reelection in 2018: Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL), Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and Senator Jon Tester (D-MT). With the President losing approval over the healthcare battle and Obamacare 2.0 holding negative ratings in all three of the states in question, and as conservative Super PACs and politicians barrage them with pressure, the three Senators stand before a tough dilemma- vote for the GHA and risk losing their seats in 2018, or vote against it and face the fury of Democrats. Nelson, a Democrat from a state Obama won in the last three Presidential races, is considered the likeliest vote for the bill, however he's facing the tough prospects of a battle against Governor Rick Scott (R-FL) in 2018. McCaskill and Tester have always been fairly liberal for their deeply-Republican states, but with Republicans ready to challenge them in 2018, they'll find it hard to vote for the bill. There's also an outside chance that the Obama administration will manage to gain the support of two Senators who have walked back from their definitive refusal to support the GHA in recent days- Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), who called it "a difficult choice" because "healthcare in my state is in a bleak situation", and Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) who said that the bill "might have some merits" despite the "atrocious process of its creation".
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contra toda autoridad excepto mi mamá
razze
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« Reply #54 on: April 27, 2018, 09:22:10 am »

Nelson will support it!!!
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #55 on: April 28, 2018, 06:52:00 am »
« Edited: June 02, 2018, 05:09:50 am by Parrotguy »

May 25th, 2017

BREAKING: Obamacare 2.0 passes Senate in a 53-47 vote; Obama administration proclaims victory on healthcare



WASHINGTON, D.C. - In a big victory for President Obama's administration, the Guaranteed Healthcare Act, its signature healthcare reform bill, passed the Senate today by a safe margin- 53 Senators voted for it, and 47 Senators opposed. The measure was ushered in through a budget reconciliation process, allowing it to bypass filibuster. The key votes for the GHA, dubbed by many Obamacare 2.0, were from four Democratic Senators facing tough reelection prospects in 2018. Senators Bill Nelson (D-FL), Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and Jon Tester (D-MT) all voted for the bill, which is considered a testament to the skills Vice President Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) and HHS Secretary Howard Dean (D-VT) displayed by collecting the votes in congress. But the biggest surprise came from Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), who was considered a fairly reliable vote against the GHA but in the end changed his tune, saying that the bill "would cover tens of thousands of West Virginians who are suffering and have no other way to get themselves insured", reasoning that his state is suffering "a terrible drug epidemic" and that it was his "duty to support West Virginians who are out of job and don't have a way to protect their and their children's health".

AYE: 53 Senators ✓
Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)
Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Michael Bennet (D-CO)
Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)
Chris Murphy (D-CT)
Tom Carper (D-DE)
Chris Coons (D-DE)
Bill Nelson (D-FL)
Gwen Graham (D-FL)
Jason Carter (D-GA)
Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
Brian Schatz (D-HI)
Dick Durbin (D-IL)
Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
Tom Vilsack (D-IA)

Angus King (I-ME)
Ben Cardin (D-MD)
Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)
Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Ed Markey (D-MA)
Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)
Gary Peters (D-MI)
Amy Klobucher (D-MN)
Al Franken (D-MN)
Claire McCaskill (D-MO)
Jason Kander (D-MO)
Jon Tester (D-MT)
Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)
Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)
Maggie Hassan (D-NH)
Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
Cory Booker (D-NJ)
Tom Udall (D-NM)
Martin Heinrich (D-NM)
Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
Kay Hagan (D-NC)
Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Betty Sutton (D-OH)
Ron Wyden (D-OR)
Jeff Merkley (D-OR)
Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA)
Joe Sestak (D-PA)
Jack Reed (D-RI)
Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)
Patrick Leahy (D-VT)

Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
Mark Warner (D-VA)
Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Patty Murray (D-WA)
Maria Cantwell (D-WA)
Joe Manchin (D-WV)
Russ Feingold (D-WI)


NAY: 47 Senators
Richard Shelby (R-AL)
Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
Dan Sullivan (R-AK)
John McCain (R-AZ)
Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
John Boozman (R-AR)
Tom Cotton (R-AR)
Cory Gardner (R-CO)
David Perdue (R-GA)
Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Jim Risch (R-ID)

Joe Donnelly (D-IN)
Evan Bayh (D-IN)

Joni Ernst (R-IA)
Pat Roberts (R-KS)
Jerry Moran (R-KS)
Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Rand Paul (R-KY)
Bill Cassidy (R-LA)
John Neely Kennedy (R-LA)
Susan Collins (R-ME)
Roger Wicker (R-MS)
Thad Cochran (R-MS)
Stever Daines (R-MT)
Deb Fischer (R-NE)
Ben Sasse (R-NE)
Joe Heck (R-NV)
Thom Tillis (R-NC)

Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)
John Hoeven (R-ND)
Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
James Lankford (R-OK)
Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Tim Scott (R-SC)
John Thune (R-SD)
Mike Rounds (R-SD)
Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
Bob Corker (R-TN)
John Cornyn (R-TX)
Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
Mike Lee (R-UT)
Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV)
Sean Duffy (R-WI)
Mike Enzi (R-WY)
John Barrasso (R-WY)


Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell launched an attack on the Senators who voted for the bill. "Mark my words", McConnell said in a press conference today, "we will take all of them down next year". McConnell's junior Senator, Rand Paul (R-KY), also attacked the bill, lamenting that the Obama administration has brought America to "a more authoritarian era with bad healthcare and no freedom". Democrats, however, could finally celebrate- President Obama proclaime that "we finally won a big victory on healthcare for the American people", and promised to pass the measure through the House and sign it as soon as possible. HHS Secretary Howard Dean, whose role just became outsized with the need to create a whole, nationwide public health insurance agency, said that he's "ready to face the challenges ahead and make sure every American has the best healthcare possible". Finally, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) praised the Obama administration for "a bold, progressive measure" and, smiling in a press conference with Schumer, Durbin and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), which was considered a display of unity between the Demcoratic progressive and establishment wings, thanked the President for "finally bringing an unfair system to an end".

May 29th, 2017

Virginia gubernatorial Democratic primary heats up as Obama, Sanders wade into Northam vs Perriello race



RICHMOND - The 2017 race for Virginia governor is heating up as the primaries for the nominations of both parties get closer. On the Republican side, fmr. RNC Chairman and establishment favourite Ed Gillespie is being challenged by Supervisor Corey Stewart, a far-right candidate running on a Trumpian, some would say racist platform and by State Senator Frank Wagner, but Gillespie is widely expected to win. On the Demcoratic side, the race appears closer- Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam, a favourite of the Virginia Democratic establishment, including an endorsement from term-limited Governor Terry McAuliffe and unofficial support from Senators Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, is being challenged by former U.S. Representative Tom Perriello. The former congressman, who served as special envoy under Obama, is being supported by an odd alliance- progressives, lead by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and his Our Revolution organization, and Obamaworld, which sees Perriello as a close ally. While the President didn't explicitly endorse Perriello, he and his aides are making their support very clear- in a recent press conference, Obama called Northam's challenger "an excellent candidate who would make a great Governor". Sanders, meanwhile, is actively campaigning for Perriello, and has called him "a progressive who will bring real results to Virginia". The primary has gotten tighter in recent weeks, and the Obama\Sanders favourite seems to have a real chance of victory. Virginia is not the only place where President Obama is supporting insurgent allies- in New York City, fmr. OMB Director and Secretary of HUD under Obama, Shaun Donovan, is rumoured to consider an Obama-supported challenge to incumbent Mayor Bill de Blasio, a Clinton ally.

Who will you vote for in the Virginia Gubernatorial Democratic Primary?
Ralph Northam- 46%
Tom Perriello-  44%
Unsure- 10%

June 5th, 2017

House of Representatives passes Obamacare 2.0; Speaker Pelosi praised for strong hold on caucus



WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Obama administration has completed its final step in passing the Guaranteed Healthcare Act, a major victory for Democrats who passed their signature bill in a smooth process. The orderly process was largely attributed to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who showed her skills at moving bills through congress and holding the Democratic caucus by getting the votes of a strong majority amongst Democrats, letting only a few endangered ones vote against- 221 U.S. Representatives, all Democrats, voted for the bill, while 212 voted against, 9 amongst them Democrats and the rest, the entire Republican caucus. Two seats are currently vacant- the Democratic seat of Education Secretary Bobby Scott and the Republican seats of Trade Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and new Senator Sean Duffy. Now, the bill moves to President Barack Obama's desk for signing.

AYE: 221 U.S. Representatives ✓
221 Members of the House Democratic Caucus

NAY: 212 U.S. Representatives
All 202 Members of the House Republican Caucus
Dan Lipinski (D-IL)
Shelli Yoder (D-IN)
Monica Vernon (D-IA)
Stephen F. Lynch (D-MA)
Collin Peterson (D-MN)
Brad Ashford (D-NE)
Steve Santarsiero (D-PA)
Henry Cuellar (D-TX)
Pete Gallego (D-TX)


June 7th, 2017

President Obama officially signs Guaranteed Healthcare Act into law



WASHINGTON, D.C. - History was made today in the White House, as President Barack Obama officially signed the Guaranteed Healthcare Act into law, creating a national health insurance agency, called NAHI, expanding and combining Medicare and Medicaid and making enrollment in some health insurance plan mandatory. The CBO, Congressial Budged Office, has confirmed that the bill's reduction of buearocracy will reduce deficits in the long term, and experts agree that the plan would mean that most, if not all Americans will eventually have health insurance. While Republicans kept condemning the bill- Senator Rand Paul lamented today as "the day our freedom and choice on healthcare was taken away by a bloated government"- Democrats and progressives celebrated the victory. Speaker Nancy Pelosi called it "a great day for Americans in all states" and progressive Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) proclaimed that "finally, we have achieved a fair healthcare system in our country". Republicans are expected to challenge the bill in the courts, but judicial experts agreed that the attempt has a "very low chance" to succeed. Following the victories in the Senate and House, Obama's approvals saw an uptick:

President Obama Job Approval
Approve- 50%  (+1)
Disapprove- 42%  (-2)
Not Sure- 6%  (+1)
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mvd10
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« Reply #56 on: April 28, 2018, 09:57:52 am »

SGP losing 2 seats in the Dutch election is completely impossible (2% of voters always votes SGP, 98% will never vote SGP), but other than that: great TL!
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #57 on: April 28, 2018, 10:19:54 am »

Great TL so far! may I ask what the current 2018 GCB Polling and senate polling  look like in (Indiana, West Virginia and Pennsylvania) please?
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #58 on: April 28, 2018, 11:43:17 am »
« Edited: April 28, 2018, 11:54:58 am by Old School Republican »

Great TL, looks pretty realistic to what I would expect from a third Obama term in which the Democrats control both houses of Congress


On the other hand I hope there is a gop wave in 2018 (in both house and senate)
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #59 on: April 28, 2018, 11:56:19 am »
« Edited: April 28, 2018, 11:59:32 am by Parrotguy »

SGP losing 2 seats in the Dutch election is completely impossible (2% of voters always votes SGP, 98% will never vote SGP), but other than that: great TL!

I guess I let my deep dislike of religious extremism get ahead of me Tongue Won't fix it because editing Wikipedia is effort, but thanks!

Great TL so far! may I ask what the current 2018 GCB Polling and senate polling  look like in (Indiana, West Virginia and Pennsylvania) please?

Thank you! Just like in our timeline, there aren't many polls for 2018 races yet at this point, but you're right- it's time to release some. I'll add them to my next post, but for now, I'll say that Manchin and Donnelly are in serious trouble while Casey Jr. is leading pretty confidently. Curiously, you've hit two of my most interesting planned races for 2018- West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Of course, I won't reveal yet why they're so interesting Wink In the Generic Ballot, Republicans have a moderate lead of about 3-5 points at this point.
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2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable
Solid4096
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« Reply #60 on: April 28, 2018, 12:56:55 pm »

I wonder if Missouri could end up being interesting. If Eric Greitens lost in 2016, it would be likely that he would have attempted to then run for the Senate seat in 2018. There would then be a large unpredictable variable in when the allegations came out.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #61 on: April 28, 2018, 01:02:44 pm »

I wonder if Missouri could end up being interesting. If Eric Greitens lost in 2016, it would be likely that he would have attempted to then run for the Senate seat in 2018. There would then be a large unpredictable variable in when the allegations came out.

If he lost an open seat in 2016 , there is no way he would win the gop nomination to face an incumbent democrat.
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2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable
Solid4096
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« Reply #62 on: April 28, 2018, 01:06:54 pm »

I wonder if Missouri could end up being interesting. If Eric Greitens lost in 2016, it would be likely that he would have attempted to then run for the Senate seat in 2018. There would then be a large unpredictable variable in when the allegations came out.

If he lost an open seat in 2016 , there is no way he would win the gop nomination to face an incumbent democrat.

Ted Bessell did that in one of his timelines
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #63 on: April 28, 2018, 03:05:31 pm »

I wonder if Missouri could end up being interesting. If Eric Greitens lost in 2016, it would be likely that he would have attempted to then run for the Senate seat in 2018. There would then be a large unpredictable variable in when the allegations came out.

If he lost an open seat in 2016 , there is no way he would win the gop nomination to face an incumbent democrat.

Greitens was not the Republican nominee for Governor in 2016. It was Peter Kinder. In fact, Greitens' political fortune was destroyed back in the Republican primaryb for Governor, when his affair scandal emerged to destroy his chances. I looked back at the first part of the TL, and after a slight edit (I mentioned in election night someone losing to Kinder because of a scandal but forgot to write Greitens' name), this is the official version:

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President Johnson
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« Reply #64 on: April 29, 2018, 03:42:32 am »

Oh if that just was true Wink Hope something similar happens from 2021 onward. Obama-Macron is also a great international coalition.
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augbell
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« Reply #65 on: May 01, 2018, 10:01:26 am »

I don't see Mélenchon loosing that much. He would have had appeal on Le Pen's voters.
And the map seems also unrealistic: why would Pyrénées-Orientales vote for him (it's not a lefty region at all), while historic lefty departments like Ariège, Martinique or Val-de-Marne (the last department that communists run)...

Nevermind, great TL !
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #66 on: May 01, 2018, 11:31:41 am »
« Edited: May 02, 2018, 09:03:38 am by Parrotguy »

I don't see Mélenchon loosing that much. He would have had appeal on Le Pen's voters.
And the map seems also unrealistic: why would Pyrénées-Orientales vote for him (it's not a lefty region at all), while historic lefty departments like Ariège, Martinique or Val-de-Marne (the last department that communists run)...

Nevermind, great TL !

The margin is fairly realistic imo, it's closer than the irl matchup but I do believe Mélenchon would lose fairly strongly because of depressed turnout from right-wingers. Macron was believed to be center to center-left back then iirc, so I could see many of the PS voters supporting him, all of the LR voters who bother to turn out, and at least some of the FN voters, which means Mélenechon doesn't have a path to a much higher percentage. I guess he could, but I don't think 37% is completely unrealistic.

As for the map- you're most likely correct, since you understand way more than me. I just took the first round results and checked where Mélenchon won or did well Tongue I'll probably refain from doing non-U.S. or Israel maps from now on.
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« Reply #67 on: May 02, 2018, 06:56:13 am »

Senate races for 2018 should be... interesting. Does anyone think that President Obama will pay more attention to issues dear to rural voters? 
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #68 on: May 04, 2018, 05:59:16 am »
« Edited: May 04, 2018, 05:23:10 pm by Parrotguy »

June 8th, 2017

British snap election results in hung parliament; next government uncertain



LONDON - The snap parliamentary election called by British Prime Minister Theresa May turned quite sour for her, as her Conservative Party suffered a net loss of seats for the first time since 1997 and could not achieve a majority in the next parliament. While it was originally called by May in order to earn herself a stronger mandate for Brexit negotiations, her campaign proved insufficient and Labour Leader Jermey Corbyn overperformed, leading to a gain of seats for his party. The Liberal Democratic Party gained a few seats as well, while the separatist Scottish National Party lost many seats to Labour's surge.

Results of the United Kingdom General Election, 2017
Conservative Party (Leader: Theresa May)- 306 Seats (41.2%)
Labour Party (Leader: Jeremy Corbyn)- 268 Seats (40.6%)
Scottish National Party (Leader: Nicola Sturgeon)- 34 Seats (2.9%)
Liberal Democratic Party (Leader: Tim Farron)- 18 Seats (8.1%)
Democratic Unionist Party (Leader: Arlene Foster)- 10 Seats (0.9%)
Sinn Féin (Leader: Gerry Adams)- 7 Seats (0.7%)
Plaid Cymru (Leader: Leanne Wood)- 4 Seats (0.5%)
Green Party (Leaders: Caroline Lucas and Jonathan Bartley)- 1 Seat (1.6%)
Independent- 1 Seat (0.5%)
Speaker (John Bercow)- 1 Seat (0.1%)
UK Independence Party (Leader: Paul Nuttall)- 0 Seats (1.8%)

The results leave May and Britain in a tough situation- no party holds a majority in the parliament, and the Prime Minister will have to build a coalition. However, that might get complicated- an idea of a deal with the right-wing Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) was suggested, but would not hold quite enough seats for a majority. The only option, then, is for May to get the support of the Liberal Democratic Party- which would mean significant concessions. While Tim Farron campaigned on a second Brexit referendum, pundits speculate that he'll agree to support May even without it, but it would require making Brexit much softer than the Conservatives would be comfortable with. In a post-election speech, May confirmed that negotiations with the Liberal Democrats will begin soon, which might take some time considering the leadership election triggered by Tim Farron's resignation following an underwhelming showing in the election.

June 14th, 2017

Perriello wins Virginia Democratic nomination for Governor in an upset, Gillespie to be Republican nominee



RICHMOND - Former U.S. Representative Tom Perriello defeated Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam in last night's Democratic primary, becoming the party's nominee for the gubernatorial election to be held in November of this year. Perriello, supported by both President Obama and his allies and progressive Democrats, defeated the favourite and frontrunner in the race, Northam, who was supported by the Virginia Democratic establishment. This is considered a victory for President Obama, and also for Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and the progressive wing of the Democratic party. Northam graciously conceded the race and endorsed Perriello in the general election, calling his opponent "a great choice for Virginians". Perriello, a former congressman and diplomat, will face former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie in the general election. Gillespie was generally considered a moderate Republican who can win in the state after almost unseating popular Senator Mark Warner in 2014, but has moved to the right during the primary in order to defeat his opponent, Corey Stewart, which he only managed to do by a surprisingly narrow margin. The narrow primary victory and Gillespie's move to the right has reportedly worried Republicans in Virginia, a state trending to the Democrats. Currently, Perriello is holding a narrow lead in the polls.

Virginia Gubernatorial Election, 2017- Democratic Primary Results
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello- 50.7% ✓
Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam- 49.3%

Virginia Gubernatorial Election, 2017- Republican Primary Results
Fmr. RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie- 42.7% ✓
County Supervisor Corey Stewart- 41.4%
State Sen. Frank Wagner- 15.9%

Virginia Gubernatorial Election, 2017- General Election Polling
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello - 47%
Fmr. RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie- 45%
Undecided- 8%

June 17th, 2017

Details of TPP finalized; Obama administration prepares to bring trade deal for ratification in House, Senate



TOKYO - After several months of additional negotiations, U.S. Trade Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and representatives of the other signatories have presented the newly-minted final version of the Trans Pacific Pact. The re-negotiated version is fairly similar to the old one, prompting disappointment amongst some progressive Democrats and conservative Republicans. The changes include small reductions in tariffs cut, from over 18,000 to 17,000, more regulations to online commerce which are expected to benefit small businesses, and even more robust environmental regulations than originally, a change probably meant to appeal to progressive Democrats. Storng intellectual property regulations were slightly relaxed, while labour rights and standards, already meant to be improved and standarized in the old TPP, were increased- according to Commerce Secretary Dean Heller, "countries like Malaysia and Vietnam will now crack down on child labour and forced labour, and take labour and human rights much more seriously", making the agreement, according to Heller, "historic". Lastly, cooperation in the agricultural sector was expanded, allowing for more exports from the U.S. agricultural sector to countires like Japan and South Korea, and at the same time imports from east Asian countries to America.

June 19th, 2017

Progressives, Conservatives attack TPP as Obama, Heller attempt to forge majority for trade deal



WASHINGTON, D.C. - Reactions in the U.S. to the unveiling of the newly-minted version of the free-trade Trans Pacific Pact were mixed. While Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) endorsed the agreement as "a good deal that will help American small businesses and our standing in the world" and promised to try and push it through the Senate, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) criticized it as "the same old lie that will only help large corporations and hurt American workers", Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) warned that it will "leave thousands out of job" and Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) claimed that the TPP will "do great harm to my state". Notably, Vice President Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) refused to explicitly endorse the deal, saying that she had misgivings about the agreement and "some disagreements with the President". Though some conservative Senators like John McCain (R-AZ), Jeff Flake (R-AZ), John Boozma (R-AR) and Lamar Alexander (R-TN) expressed support for the deal, with the latter of them saying that it will help "revitalize growth and economic strength in the U.S. and drastically lower prices", others were not as supportive. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) criticized the TPP from the right, claiming that it was "full of regulations and tedious big govenrment that will only bog down the economies of those involved". This sentiment was joined by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), who also added that the agreement was "tilted against simple Americans". And, of course, 2016 Republican nominee Donald Trump was one of the most vocal in opposition to the bill:





Nontheless, the agreement is expected to pass with the support of both Republicans and Democrats from the more moderate side of the aisles.

June 20th, 2017

De la Portilla, a Republican, wins special election in Florida's 27th congressial district, upsetting favourite Democrat Donna Shalala



MIAMI - In a special election that Democrats hoped to win for a gain in the House of Representatives, Republican Miguel Díaz de la Portilla upset the favourite, Donna Shalala, an important hold for the Republican Party. The seat in Florida's 27th district was held by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen before her appointment as U.S. Trade Representative under the Obama Administration this year, and in recent years appears to be rapidly moving towards Democrats- President Obama won it against Romney in 2012 with 53%-46%, and against Trump and Huntsman in 2016 with 52%-24%-21%. In light of the trend, Democrats hoped to make a rare House gain in a special election, but their hopes were foiled due to a number of factors. A political moderate who often supported gun control, lgbtq rights and a path to amnesty for illegal immigrants, Miguel Díaz de la Portilla, the Republican, was a member of the Miami-Dade County Commission before serving six years in the Florida State Senator. Now, he will replace Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Capitol Hill. Meanwhile, former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala, the Democrat, was bogged down by her image as an establishment creature, intensified by how easily she won the Democratic nomination and by her tenure as President of the Clinton Foundation. Republican leaders celebrated the victory as a success, with Speaker Paul Ryan claiming it showed "Americans everywhere are sick of the Obama administration's rampaging, bloated government policies" and fmr. Senator Marco Rubio, rumoured to be contemplating a 2018 run for the other Senate seat in Florida, said it "spoke volumes" about the "deep unpopularity of the Democratic Party right now". The victory comes a week after a loss, albeit an expected one, for Republicans, when the election for Virginia's 3rd Congressial District, vacated by Secretary of Education Bobby Scott, was won by his niece and State Delegate Marcia Price, a Democrat, over her colleague, Republican State Delegate David Yancey, with a closer-than-expected 58%-41% result.

Florida 27th Congressial District Special Election (100% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
State Sen. Miguel Díaz de la Portilla - 52.3% ✓
Fmr. Sec. of Health and Human Services Donna Shalala- 47.5%
Other- 0.2%
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #69 on: May 04, 2018, 06:28:19 am »

FL-27 special should say Republican Hold, not Republican Gain, as Ileana Ros-Lehtinen was the former representative.

Correct. Thanks.
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« Reply #70 on: May 04, 2018, 08:32:40 am »

I wonder if there be in this case a third term curse for Obama.
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« Reply #71 on: May 04, 2018, 05:11:04 pm »

The Diaz de la Portillas are one of the most despised political families in Miami ahahahaha. Love this TL
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« Reply #72 on: May 04, 2018, 05:15:38 pm »

Obama only won FL-27 53.0 to 46.3 in 2012.

You have it listed as 53 to 36 why?
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« Reply #73 on: May 04, 2018, 05:22:22 pm »

Obama only won FL-27 53.0 to 46.3 in 2012.

You have it listed as 53 to 36 why?

Typo.
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« Reply #74 on: May 11, 2018, 05:03:06 am »

June 22nd, 2017

POLLING UPDATE: several Democrats in trouble for 2018, Presidential primaries in 2020 remains unclear



CHARLESTON - While the midterms are still more than a year away, several polls are starting to trickle in, providing a first look at the key 2018 races- and beyond. The polls, conducted for both primaries and general elections for the Senate, show several Democratic incumbents in states considered hard for Democrats to win struggling, as GOP primary fields appear likely to be large and close, with many top-level candidates hoping to ride on what's shaping up to be a strong year for Republicans. Some, like Senate Minority Leade Mitch McConnell, have predicted "a Republican wave" after special election victories for the party, in the face of "a failing administration taxing our nation and destroying our freedom". However, Democrats point to the relative popularity of recent measures like the healthcare bill, and claim that the damage in the midterms can be mitigated.

Indiana Senate Election (Republican Primary)- Polling
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Todd Young- 26%
U.S. Rep. Todd Rokita- 20%
U.S. Rep. Susan Brooks- 18%
U.S. Rep. Luke Messer- 16%
Fmr. State Rep. Mike Braun- 5%
State Sen. Mike Delph- 2%
Undecided/Other- 13%

Indiana Senate Election (General)- Polling
Republican Candidate- 46%
Senator Joe Donnelly*- 39%
Undecided/Other- 15%

Missouri Senate Election (Republican Primary)- Polling
State Att. Gen. Josn Hawley- 22%
U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner- 21%
Businessman John Brunner- 14%
Fmr. Navy SEAL Eric Greitens- 11%
Businessman Austin Petersen- 8%
Fmr. Speaker Catherine Hanaway- 4%
Undecided/Other- 11%

Missouri Senate Election (General)- Polling
Republican Candidate- 46%
Senator Claire McCaskill*- 40%
Undecided/Other- 14%

West Virginia Senate Election (Republican Primary)- Polling
U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins- 30%
State Att. Gen. Patrick Morrisey- 28%
Businessman Don Blankenship- 21%
Undecided/Other- 21%

West Virginia Senate Election (General)- Polling
Republican Candidate- 45%
Senator Joe Manchin*- 37%
Undecided/Other- 18%

As we can see, Democratic incumbents in Republican states are facing an uphill climb in the 2018 midterm elections. In a midterm where a Democrat is sitting in the White House, Republicans were always expected to make gains, but with so many vulnerable Democrats, it might get tough for the President's party. The most surprising poll is likely the one from West Virginia- Senator Joe Manchin was considered a popular moderate Democrat in his state, but is trailing a generic Republican candidate by eight points. However, Republicans are worried that the one facing him will be businessman Don Blankenship, a man jailed for a year for his role in a mine explosion that killed 29 people, who's running as a Trumpist, right wing populist. Other polls conducted checked races in states considered swing states- where Democratic incumbents are also facing a potentially tough reelection, and also a curious primary poll in Utah.

Florida Senate Election (Republican Primary)- Polling
Governor Rick Scott- 29%
Fmr. Senator Marco Rubio- 28%
State Att. Gen. Pam Bondy- 11%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. David Jolly- 10%
U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis- 4%
Undecided/Other- 18%

Florida Senate Election (General)- Polling
Senator Bill Nelson*- 43%
Republican Candidate- 41%
Undecided/Other- 16%

Ohio Senate Election (Republican Primary)- Polling
Governor John Kasich- 38%
State Trs. Josh Mandel- 21%
Fmr. Sec. of State Ken Blackwell- 18%
U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci- 10%
Undecided/Other- 13%

Ohio Senate Election (General)- Polling
Senator Sherrod Brown*- 45%
Republican Candidate- 41%
Undecided/Other- 14%

Pennsylvania Senate Election (Republican Primary)- Polling
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum- 26%
Fmr. Governor Tom Ridge- 24%
U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent- 14%
U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta- 14%
State Rep. Rick Saccone- 3%
Undecided/Other- 19%

Pennsylvania Senate Election (General)- Polling
Senator Bob Casey Jr.*- 45%
Republican Candidate- 39%
Undecided/Other- 16%

Utah Senate Election (Republican Primary)- Polling
Fmr. Governor Jon Huntsman Jr.- 23%
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney- 22%
Senator Orrin Hatch*- 20%
U.S. Rep. Mia Love- 11%
U.S. Rep. Jason Chaffetz- 9%
Undecided/Other- 15%

Utah Senate Election (General)- Polling
Republican Candidate- 58%
Democratic Candidate- 28%
Undecided/Other- 14%

While all three Democratic Senators from Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania are currently leading, there is trouble in the water in the shape of possible high-profile Republican candidates challenging them. Casey Jr. from Pennsylvania is not expected to lost even if he runs against popular former Governor and Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, and is expected to easily defeat the conservative former Senator Santorum or Congressman Lou Barletta. Meanwhile, Ohio's Sherrod Brown is leading too, but he could face a problematic race if popular Governor and 2016 Presidential contender who refused to endorse Trump, John Kasich, decides to run. Florida's Republican primary appears to be potentially very contentious- Governor Rick Scott is widely expected to run, but rumour has it that former Senator Marco Rubio, after losing his seat in 2016, is contemplating another run for a Senate comeback. However, sources inside the Rubio sphere also claim that he's contemplating another option- running in the gubernatorial race to replace the term-limited Scott. Republican leaders are reportedly urging this option, potentially sending two high-profile contenders to two separate races, but it is unknown if Rubio is willing to give up the national standing provided by a Senate seat for a gubernatorial role. In Utah, longtime incumbent Orrin Hatch, who promised to retire but is now reportedly re-considering, is facing a potentially very tough reelection primary bid. He's placing second against two high-profile candidates who are reportedly considering a run- former Governor, Ambassador to China and wildly successful 2016 third party candidate Jon Huntsman, who, according to inside sources, whishes to keep his voice relevant, and former Massachusetts Governor and 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney. It remains to be seen if Hatch retires and either or both of the two decide to run.

Another poll provides a first look at a race further down the road- the 2020 Presidential election.

Who would you vote for if the 2020 Republican Presidential Primary in your state was held today?
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)- 17%
Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ)- 14%
Governor John Kasich (R-OH)- 11%
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)- 8%
Fmr. Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT)- 8%
House Minority Leader Paul Ryan- 6%
Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR)- 5%
Governor Scott Walker (R-WI)- 5%
Fmr. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)- 4%
Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)- 3%
Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE)- 2%
Governor Charlie Baker (R-MA)- 2%
Fmr. Governor Rick Perry (R-TX)- 1%
Undecided/Other- 18%

Who would you vote for if the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary in your state was held today?
Secretary of State Joe Biden (D-DE)- 21%
Vice President Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)- 17%
Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)- 16%
Senator Elizabetn Warren (D-MA)- 9%
Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 5%
Senator Jason Kander (D-MO)- 4%
Senator Al Franken (D-MN)- 3%
Fmr. Governor Deval Patrick (D-MA)- 2%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)- 2%
Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)- 2%
Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)- 1%
Secretary of HUD Julian Castro (D-TX)- 1%
Senator Amy Klobucher (D-MN)- 0.5%
Fmr. Governor Martin O'Malley (R-MD)- 0.5%
Undecided/Other- 16%

The primary polls don't provide much more than uncertainty. Name recognition appears to have large impact, as well-known candidates like Senator Cruz, the 2016 runner-up, Governor Christie, who served as Trump's running mate, and John Kasich, the 2016 third-place finisher, lead the Republican field. Jon Huntsman does surprisingly well despite his perceived betrayal of the party, as does Senator Rand Paul, whose previous campaign crashed back in 2016. On the Democratic side, the titans seem to be sucking all the oxygen from the air- Joe Biden, former Senator, Vice President and current Secretary of State, who hadn't ruled out a run, is leading, followed by the currently not-extremely-visible Vice President Tammy Baldwin and progressive leader Bernie Sanders is a close third. Another progressive firebrand, Senator Elizabeth Warren, is fourth, and other potential contenders with less name recognition are polling in low single-digits. It remains to be seen if any of them can break through.

June 24th, 2017

President Obama has sitdown with Senator Sanders (I-VT) on trade, other issues; Sanders still "strongly against current version of TPP" after meeting



WASHINGTON, D.C. - In light of the fiery opposition by progressives in the Democratic party to the Trans Pacific Pact trade agreement, which, in the words of Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH), they consider "a very bad deal that will hurt American workers and leave thousands unemployed in already suffering areas of our country", President Barack Obama has surprisingly invited Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), his former primary opponent and a leader of the party's progressive wing, to a sitdown in the White House. The meeting was an attempt by Obama to reconcile differences days before the TPP is brought before the House. According to Press Secretary Josh Earnest, the meeting was "friendly and productive", and the two discussed various issues other than trade, including healthcare, the environment and a possible infrastructure bill. However, Senator Sanders, apparently, remained unconvinced- in a CNN interview a day after the meeting, Sanders said that, while he appreciated the invintation, the environmental and labour regulations added to the TPP in recent negotiations are "too little" to compensate for "a disastrous blow to our workers". In addition to progressives, some more moderate Democratic Senators from midwestern and applachian states have also declared their opposition to the bill, including Joe Manchin (D-WV), Joe Donnelly (D-IN), Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA), Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and Tom Vilsack (D-IA). Others, like Jason Kander (D-MO), Joe Sestak (D-PA) and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) are still on the fence.

June 27th, 2017

Trans Pacific Pact passes House in tense vote; differences spark between Democratic leaders



WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Obama administration's signature trade deal, the TPP, won a majority in the House of Representatives today, passing one of its biggest obstacles before arriving at the President's desk for official ratification. The vote in the House was tense, and resulted in a fairly strong victory for President Obama- 228 U.S. Representatives voted for the deal, while 206 voted against it. But the partisan breakdown of the vote was even more interesting- 164 Democrats voted for the bill and 67 voted against it, while 64 Republicans voted for the bill, with the rest, 139 U.S. Representatives, opposing it. The strong Republican support is considered a result of hard lobbying by Commerce Secretary Dean Heller and U.S. Trade Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, both Republicans and among the architects of the newly-negotiated trade agreement. They helped convince enough moderate Republicans from the Main Street Partnership Caucus, as well as pro-free trade conservatives, to essentially pass the deal. On the Democratic side, the split is a result of progressives believing it hurts workers, as well as rural and midwestern Democrats fearing the loss of their seats come 2018, as the TPP is unpopular in these areas. Particularly interesting was the split inside the Democratic leadership itself- while Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Majority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) supported President Obama's efforts to whip Democratic votes in the House and voted for the deal, Majority Leader Tim Ryam voted against and even addressed to House to voice his opposition. This is yet another sign of conflict between Pelosi and Ryan, who has become a counterweight to the Speaker.

July 1st, 2017

Senate ratifies Trans Pacific Pact, giving another a victory for the Obama administration; President officially signs deal



WASHINGTON, D.C. - In a vote anticipated for several months, the Senate has officially ratified the Trans Pacific Pact today. President Obama's trade deal was passed with 62-38 majority, avoiding a filibuster mainly thanks to pro-trade Republican Senators joining their Democratic colleagues and supporting the deal, making it one of the least partisan major Senate votes in recent years. It's considered a victory for the Obama administration, who now hope to move on from the TPP and regain the trust of progressives opposing the deal, and particularly a victory for Commerce Secretary Dean Heller, who worked on the deal and lobbied hard, and as we saw today, successfully, for Republicans to support it in the Senate. The responses in the political world were mixed- while Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer celebrated the passage of "a great agreement", and Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) said that he was happy to vote for "a solid trade deal that will stimulate our economy", others were less thrilled- Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) gave a short, curt comment about "a bad deal to our workers", while 2016 Republican nominee Donald Trump tweeted that the agreement is "A TOTAL DISASTER" and that it was "a very, very sad day for all good Americans". President Barack Obama quickly signed the TPP, officially ratifying it, and now, the other signatories are expected to start a quick process to ratify it too and get the deal to finally take effect.

AYE: 62 Senators ✓
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
Dan Sullivan (R-AK)
John McCain (R-AZ)
Jeff Flake (R-AZ)

Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)
Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Michael Bennet (D-CO)

Cory Gardner (R-CO)
Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)
Chris Murphy (D-CT)
Tom Carper (D-DE)
Chris Coons (D-DE)
Bill Nelson (D-FL)
Gwen Graham (D-FL)
Jason Carter (D-GA)
Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
Brian Schatz (D-HI)

Jim Risch (R-ID)
Dick Durbin (D-IL)
Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
Evan Bayh (D-IN)

Jerry Moran (R-KS)
John Neely Kennedy (R-LA)

Ben Cardin (D-MD)
Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)

Susan Collins (R-ME)
Amy Klobucher (D-MN)
Roger Wicker (R-MS)
Jason Kander (D-MO)
Jon Tester (D-MT)

Steve Daines (R-MT)
Deb Fischer (R-NE)
Ben Sasse (R-NE)

Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)
Joe Heck (R-NV)
Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)
Maggie Hassan (D-NH)
Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
Cory Booker (D-NJ)
Tom Udall (D-NM)
Martin Heinrich (D-NM)
Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)

Thom Tillis (R-NC)
Kay Hagan (D-NC)
James Lankford (R-OK)
Ron Wyden (D-OR)
Joe Sestak (D-PA)
Jack Reed (D-RI)
Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)

Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Tim Scott (R-SC)
John Thune (R-SD)
Mike Rounds (R-SD)
Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
Bob Corker (R-TN)
John Cornyn (R-TX)
Orrin Hatch (R-UT)

Mark Warner (D-VA)
Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Patty Murray (D-WA)
Maria Cantwell (D-WA)


Safe NAY: 38 Senators
Richard Shelby (R-AL)
Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
John Boozman (R-AR)
Tom Cotton (R-AR)
David Perdue (R-GA)
Mike Crapo (R-ID)

Joe Donnelly (D-IN)
Joni Ernst (R-IA)
Tom Vilsack (D-IA)
Pat Roberts (R-KS)
Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Rand Paul (R-KY)
Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

Angus King (I-ME)
Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Ed Markey (D-MA)
Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)
Gary Peters (D-MI)
Al Franken (D-MN)

Thad Cochran (R-MS)
Claire McCaskill (D-MO)
Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)

John Hoeven (R-ND)
Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Betty Sutton (D-OH)

Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
Jeff Merkley (D-OR)
Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA)

Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Mike Lee (R-UT)

Patrick Leahy (D-VT)
Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
Joe Manchin (D-WV)
Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV)
Russ Feingold (D-WI)
Sean Duffy (R-WI)
Mike Enzi (R-WY)
John Barrasso (R-WY)
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