Did immigration effect the results of the 1996 election?

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I actually think Dole outperformed in 1996

Clinton really should have won over 400 electoral votes in 1996 (which he would have if he held GA CO and MT)

I agree. I remember reading that during the final weeks of the 1996 camapign, Clinton was ahead in Colorado, Montana, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, South Dakota, Texas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Alabama, but instead focused most of his attention on Florida and Arizona, two states that he desperately wanted to win.

Source? The bolded states seem like a stretch to me.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I actually think Dole outperformed in 1996

Clinton really should have won over 400 electoral votes in 1996 (which he would have if he held GA CO and MT)

I agree. I remember reading that during the final weeks of the 1996 camapign, Clinton was ahead in Colorado, Montana, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, South Dakota, Texas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Alabama, but instead focused most of his attention on Florida and Arizona, two states that he desperately wanted to win.

Source? The bolded states seem like a stretch to me.

There was a huge turnout collapse for Clinton in 1996. In hindsight people are impressed by his 9 point win, but he was ahead in the polls by 15-20 points nationally. That would have been closing in a Reagan 1984 or Ike like win.

The 15-20 point lead was months before the election..it had narrowed to the low double digits as Republicans came home.  Maybe the best case scenario for Clinton was adding MT, CO, GA, VA, and maybeeee NC.

I agree that given the fundamentals, the race should've been an even bigger blowout, but we can start to see polarization in this election. And a lot of people just didn't like Clinton's character while Dole was noncontroversial.