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  Describe a Baker/Warren voter.
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Poll
Question: Predict the percentage of Bay Staters that will vote for both candidates.
#1≥ 5%
#2≥ 10%
#3≥ 15%
#4≥ 20%
#5≥ 25%
#6≥ 30%
#7≥ 35%
#8≥ 40%
#9≥ 45%
#10≥ 50%
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Describe a Baker/Warren voter.  (Read 2294 times)
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Hades
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« on: April 08, 2018, 05:31:23 am »

Describe a voter that is going to vote for Charlie Baker as governor and for Elizabeth Warren as senator.
How many Bay Staters do you think will have voted for both candidates?
Do you know if there is any exit poll that will ask that question?
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kyc0705
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« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2018, 08:20:02 am »

That's probably going to be a majority of the state.
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« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2018, 08:59:25 am »

That's probably going to be a majority of the state.

Given the current poll numbers (Baker: 60% / Warren: 55%), Warren would have to receive the votes of 83.3% of all Baker voters, and Baker would have to convince 90.9% of all Warren voters.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2018, 10:04:20 am »

My uncle.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
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« Reply #4 on: April 08, 2018, 10:38:45 am »

Describe a voter that is going to vote for Charlie Baker as governor and for Elizabeth Warren as senator.
How many Bay Staters do you think will have voted for both candidates?
Do you know if there is any exit poll that will ask that question?

There's going to be a massive number of them, considering both are likely to win reelection with >60% of the vote.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2018, 10:54:47 am »

That's probably going to be a majority of the state.

No? There was only about 30% of the state that did that in 1994 when Weld outran Mitt Romney by 30 points. Assuming of course that there was no significant amount of Romney-Roosevelt voters, which I suspect there wasn’t.

Yeah, I was assuming, through a combination of bad data prediction and bad math, that the respective opponents are just some Also Rans that barely make a dent—there's a difference between winning 60/40 and wiping somebody off the map, which means the required crossover vote is that much lower.
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TheBeardedOne
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« Reply #6 on: April 08, 2018, 01:11:44 pm »

That's probably going to be a majority of the state.

No? There was only about 30% of the state that did that in 1994 when Weld outran Mitt Romney by 30 points. Assuming of course that there was no significant amount of Romney-Roosevelt voters, which I suspect there wasn’t.


Romney-Roosevelt voters?
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Cynthia
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« Reply #7 on: April 08, 2018, 02:07:30 pm »

Me if I live in MA

I don't think the current Democratic field has someone who can govern the state better than Baker does--Baker didn't screw up yet so I think he deserves reelection.

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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #8 on: April 08, 2018, 02:45:15 pm »
« Edited: April 08, 2018, 06:10:29 pm by maineiac4434🌲 »

That's probably going to be a majority of the state.

No? There was only about 30% of the state that did that in 1994 when Weld outran Mitt Romney by 30 points. Assuming of course that there was no significant amount of Romney-Roosevelt voters, which I suspect there wasn’t.


Romney-Roosevelt voters?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_gubernatorial_election,_1994

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Massachusetts,_1994
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« Reply #9 on: April 08, 2018, 02:56:15 pm »


Bill Weld and Bob Massie? Man, this world is small...
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Bagel23
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« Reply #10 on: April 08, 2018, 08:36:17 pm »

Low iq voters who fall for Dastardly Duane's fake moderate image.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #11 on: April 08, 2018, 08:43:24 pm »

probably similar to Sander/Scott voters
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #12 on: April 09, 2018, 08:59:57 am »

I'm curious whether there will be any individuals voting GOP for senate and Dem for governor in MA this year.
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« Reply #13 on: April 09, 2018, 09:27:38 am »

I'm curious whether there will be any individuals voting GOP for senate and Dem for governor in MA this year.

If Setti Warren and Darius Mitchell win their respective nominations, I could see some African Americans with an electoral behavior utterly at variance with the majority.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2018, 12:24:06 pm »


Describe your uncle.
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Horus
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« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2018, 01:46:22 pm »

Me if I lived in Mass. Baker is an inoffensive moderate and I see no reason to replace him.
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« Reply #16 on: April 09, 2018, 01:54:38 pm »

A decent amount of Dems I'm sure.
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« Reply #17 on: April 19, 2019, 06:34:35 pm »

Does anyone know a statistic with regard to the question in the poll?

1,633,371 Massachusettsans elected Elizabeth Warren as their U.S. senator, and 1,781,341 Bay Staters elected Charlie Baker to the governorship.

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Roll Roons
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« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2019, 06:39:33 pm »

Perhaps a more interesting question: If they exist, what would a Diehl/Gonzalez voter look like?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2019, 07:16:08 pm »

If we assume the 36% of Diehl voters all voted for Baker and the 33% of Gonzalez voters all voted for Warren, then we have 31% left that was Baker/Warren. Of course, there ought to be some Gonzalez/Diehl voters, even if a minuscule amount, so the answer is around 30%.
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☑️Real Liberal KY Governor-elect Antifa Andy
LouisvilleThunder
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« Reply #20 on: April 20, 2019, 09:36:47 am »

Perhaps a more interesting question: If they exist, what would a Diehl/Gonzalez voter look like?
They are probably social conservative types who don't care for Baker but hate Warren.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #21 on: April 20, 2019, 05:37:02 pm »

Perhaps a more interesting question: If they exist, what would a Diehl/Gonzalez voter look like?

Maybe a couple family members.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #22 on: April 21, 2019, 08:58:36 am »

MA is a secular state, but moderate GOPers with Super Dems Assembly is the norm
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #23 on: April 21, 2019, 01:02:23 pm »

MA elects moderate Republican Governors on the strength of culturally liberal voters who do not approve of MA's high taxes.
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here2view
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« Reply #24 on: April 21, 2019, 05:17:58 pm »

Me. I voted for both Warren and Baker.
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