Any thought from Texans re: Cruz vs Beto?

[SCNCmod]

ie- Does Beto seem to be gaining unusually high support for a Dem? .... Is Cruz stronger (or weaker) than many outside of Texas perceive?  ... or any other general thoughts of the mindset of texas voters heading into November?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely GOP

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

1. To some extent. There is no yes or no answer here, but if I must, I would say probably, especially comparatively to previous dunce sacrificial lambs here in the past, so yes.

2. Slightly stronger. Don't get me wrong, he is weaker than ever, and will underperform his previous races, but many outsiders make this look like prime #resistance territory, it is not.

3. Expect Cruz to win by anywhere from mid single digits to low double digits, barring a video of him committing statutory rape, or having relations with a Stormy Daniels (non zero chances).

[Theodore]

Safe R

[CatoMinor]

Unless Cruz completely collapses in the exurbs of Houston and Dallas, he still has this. 

[Blair]

Cruz has quite low favourability ratings if I recall correctly; he's clearly not as popular as Abbott but equally he's not going to run an awful campaign. His 2016 campaign was one of the only to actually have some degree of competence (outside his idiotic strategy to wait too long to attack Trump) and he can raise money/get conservative voters to turnout.

Generally for Democrats to win in Texas they need both a very good campaign themselves, and an weak campaign from their opponent.

[Red Tory Indy]

1. In a year with not a lot of great pickup opportunities for Democrats your naturally going to see Dems focus more energy on long shot pickup opportunities then they normally would. Hence the unusually great Dem fundraising
2.Ted Cruz is fairly conservative even somewhat for Texas which makes him more vulnerable then your typical Republican.
3. Democrats have a fair amount of untapped potential in Texas if they can get significantly better turnout with Hispanic and Millennial voters who have significantly lower turnout then older Anglo voters. Also with Trumps unpopularity and strong dem enthusiasm  their is a better chance of point number three happening.

Democrats still have a very uphill climb even in a dem wave year though and I would expect Cruz to win by 8–10 points in 2018.

[CatoMinor]

Generally for Democrats to win in Texas they need both a very good campaign themselves, and an weak campaign from their opponent.

Generally for Democrats to win in Texas the year has to be 1994 or earlier.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Democrats will continue their 130 election losestreak in Texas as Cruz wins by 25. Texas is full of conservative patriots who reject socalism and love our president.

[Skye]

The race is Likely R for now. It would probably take a D tsunami and an impeccable campaign by O'Rourke to bring down Cruz.

[Canis]

Beto gave a speech at the texas democratic partys convention looks like his main target of the campaign will be Tarrant County
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/06/22/beto-orourke-vows-show-up-for-all-texans-thrills-delegates-texas-democratic-party-convention
really solid piece

[DFL]

Beto gave a speech at the texas democratic partys convention looks like his main target of the campaign will be Tarrant County
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/06/22/beto-orourke-vows-show-up-for-all-texans-thrills-delegates-texas-democratic-party-convention
really solid piece

He's also been doing more outreach to the black community of Dallas as well. Looks like now that his 254 county campaign is done that he's focusing back on the Dem base

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Beto gave a speech at the texas democratic partys convention looks like his main target of the campaign will be Tarrant County
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/06/22/beto-orourke-vows-show-up-for-all-texans-thrills-delegates-texas-democratic-party-convention
really solid piece

He's also been doing more outreach to the black community of Dallas as well. Looks like now that his 254 county campaign is done that he's focusing back on the Dem base

First: wew you aren't dead

Second: I think that O'Rourke has a good shot. I remember one guy going in depth into a poll that showed the race getting CLOSER after those polled were told about the positions of each candidate on gun control, from Cruz+7 I think to Cruz+1. I'll find the video soon.

(btw the tabs on that poll said that those polled voted Trump+8 which is just about what happened)

[TheSaint250]

I really think it'll just come down to the national environment in the end, and that's what's annoying since that can be somewhat hard to predict.

For example, key 2014 Senate races were expected to be much closer than they were. Will we see the reverse? Will the wave be equalized by unexpected Republican turnout?

Now, I doubt Cruz will lose, but I could see him winning from anything from +10 to +2 (maybe even +1) based on the national environment.

[Galaxie]

I really think it'll just come down to the national environment in the end, and that's what's annoying since that can be somewhat hard to predict.

For example, key 2014 Senate races were expected to be much closer than they were. Will we see the reverse? Will the wave be equalized by unexpected Republican turnout?

Now, I doubt Cruz will lose, but I could see him winning from anything from +10 to +2 (maybe even +1) based on the national environment.

Same in thinking Cruz will win, but I think it'll be more of a turnout game than not. GOP still has more people turning out than Dems even in the primaries -- and Dems had WAY more going on then. The Beto campaign is going to have to pull off some sort of turnout miracle in the persuadable suburbs and with the Latino community to get close to Cruz

[CatoMinor]

I think O'Rourke has potential to make this close, and if any Democrat could beat Cruz it is him, however I am just not convinced that Beto can flip the Dallas/Houston suburbs. Of course things can change but I think at best he has a 47% ceiling.

[here2view]

Not from Texas of course, but I think Cruz wins by around 8 (likely 54-45 with 1% or so for third parties.) I could see him winning by only 5/6 if the national environment improves in O'Rourke's favor, or Cruz wins by 10/11 if the opposite happens and O'Rourke doesn't run an overly effective campaign. Likely R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My sister just saw a truck with both a come and take it and beto sticker on it just a few minutes ago. This is not a normal race.

[Galaxie]

My sister just saw a truck with both a come and take it and beto sticker on it just a few minutes ago. This is not a normal race.

The underrated but important "Come and Take It" voting bloc could be more competitive than once thought. hmmmmm

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My sister just saw a truck with both a come and take it and beto sticker on it just a few minutes ago. This is not a normal race.

The underrated but important "Come and Take It" voting bloc could be more competitive than once thought. hmmmmm

Lol, maybe an anomaly, but it sure is interesting. We got a Allred and Beto sign in our yard.

[Galaxie]

My sister just saw a truck with both a come and take it and beto sticker on it just a few minutes ago. This is not a normal race.

The underrated but important "Come and Take It" voting bloc could be more competitive than once thought. hmmmmm

Lol, maybe an anomaly, but it sure is interesting. We got a Allred and Beto sign in our yard.

I've still got an Andrew White sign, sitting sad and alone inside my house

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My sister just saw a truck with both a come and take it and beto sticker on it just a few minutes ago. This is not a normal race.

The underrated but important "Come and Take It" voting bloc could be more competitive than once thought. hmmmmm

Lol, maybe an anomaly, but it sure is interesting. We got a Allred and Beto sign in our yard.

I've still got an Andrew White sign, sitting sad and alone inside my house

Lol, I am from Dallas, so my family supported Valdez, we did not get a sign though.