How does Alabama trend in 2020?
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Poll
Question: Pick one
#1
More Republican		  
#2
More Democratic		  
#3
Remain fairly stable		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 73

Author Topic: How does Alabama trend in 2020?  (Read 3100 times)
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« on: March 22, 2018, 03:55:48 PM »
How does it trend in 2020?
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2018, 03:59:06 PM »
I think it'll swing and trend Democratic, but not by a large margin.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2018, 05:03:56 PM »
Slightly D, by maybe two or three points. I don't expect any trend to be permanent, and there's no evidence it's headed strongly in either direction.
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TML
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« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2018, 09:13:32 PM »
My best guess is that it will trend D slightly, with a final margin of R+20 to R+25.
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twenty42
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« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2018, 11:09:58 AM »
Trump is going to win the PV by 2-3 points, which will lead to a lot of states trending D simply by technicality.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2018, 02:48:24 PM »
Quote from: twenty42 on March 23, 2018, 11:09:58 AM
Trump is going to win the PV by 2-3 points, which will lead to a lot of states trending D simply by technicality.
I don't think Trump wins the national popular vote.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2018, 05:53:13 PM »
Quote from: twenty42 on March 23, 2018, 11:09:58 AM
Trump is going to win the PV by 2-3 points, which will lead to a lot of states trending D simply by technicality.
If he wins the PV I don't see how there would be a D trend.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2018, 06:49:03 PM »
Quote from: twenty42 on March 23, 2018, 11:09:58 AM
Trump is going to win the PV by 2-3 points, which will lead to a lot of states trending D simply by technicality.
Firstly, that makes no sense.
Secondly, there's no way Trump will win the PV simply because he hasn't gotten any more popular in states like California, Texas, and New York. the Sun Belt is still just as dissatisfied with him as they were on election day and he can't squeeze out too many more rural whites living in sparsely populated counties, certainly not enough to win the Popular Vote.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2018, 05:41:26 PM »
Almost surely Dem.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #9 on: March 27, 2018, 12:42:21 PM »
Really?
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Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
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« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2018, 01:55:41 PM »
Quote from: MB on March 23, 2018, 05:53:13 PM
Quote from: twenty42 on March 23, 2018, 11:09:58 AM
Trump is going to win the PV by 2-3 points, which will lead to a lot of states trending D simply by technicality.
If he wins the PV I don't see how there would be a D trend.
That's not how trend works.
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2018, 02:01:50 PM »
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on March 23, 2018, 06:49:03 PM
Quote from: twenty42 on March 23, 2018, 11:09:58 AM
Trump is going to win the PV by 2-3 points, which will lead to a lot of states trending D simply by technicality.
Firstly, that makes no sense.
Secondly, there's no way Trump will win the PV simply because he hasn't gotten any more popular in states like California, Texas, and New York. the Sun Belt is still just as dissatisfied with him as they were on election day and he can't squeeze out too many more rural whites living in sparsely populated counties, certainly not enough to win the Popular Vote.
exactly, twenty 42 is on some bulls*t again
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2018, 02:26:07 PM »
Quote from: fluffypanther19 on March 27, 2018, 02:01:50 PM
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on March 23, 2018, 06:49:03 PM
Quote from: twenty42 on March 23, 2018, 11:09:58 AM
Trump is going to win the PV by 2-3 points, which will lead to a lot of states trending D simply by technicality.
Firstly, that makes no sense.
Secondly, there's no way Trump will win the PV simply because he hasn't gotten any more popular in states like California, Texas, and New York. the Sun Belt is still just as dissatisfied with him as they were on election day and he can't squeeze out too many more rural whites living in sparsely populated counties, certainly not enough to win the Popular Vote.
exactly, twenty 42 is on some bulls*t again
Maybe he means there'll be enough African-Americans, white liberals, and college students to skew Alabama's popular vote relative to the national popular vote to make it "trend" Dem.
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twenty42
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« Reply #13 on: March 30, 2018, 10:05:17 AM »
Quote from: MB on March 23, 2018, 05:53:13 PM
Quote from: twenty42 on March 23, 2018, 11:09:58 AM
Trump is going to win the PV by 2-3 points, which will lead to a lot of states trending D simply by technicality.
If he wins the PV I don't see how there would be a D trend.

Did you know that 23 states and DC trended R in 2008 despite a D near-landslide? You see, when there is a large national swing, it leads to a number of safe states “accidentally” trending the opposite way due to maxing out. For example, if there is a 5-point R swing and WV swings R by 3-4, it technically trended D despite even though R’s improved their performance there. In the same vein, NC trended D in 2012 despite it flipping from D to R.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #14 on: March 30, 2018, 11:48:49 AM »
Quote from: MB on March 23, 2018, 05:53:13 PM
Quote from: twenty42 on March 23, 2018, 11:09:58 AM
Trump is going to win the PV by 2-3 points, which will lead to a lot of states trending D simply by technicality.
If he wins the PV I don't see how there would be a D trend.

Because you are clearly forgetting to adjust for the "millions of fraudulent" Hillary votes. Once you take those out Trump clearly won anywhere from 55%-60%. So him winning by 2%-3% would mean a large D shift and trend. Tongue
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2018, 10:07:21 AM »
It will vote close to the same as it did in 2016, so it'll "Trend" opposite of the way the popular vote moves.
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UncleVolodya
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« Reply #16 on: May 10, 2018, 07:49:58 PM »
Mildly Democratic.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2018, 11:36:50 AM »
One thing to consider is that Jones will be on the ballot, giving some Dems a competitive race to vote for. Turnout will be better than 2016.
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2018, 11:53:04 AM »
I think it will vote slightly more Democratic than in 2016. Jones being on the ballot will help the Dems and I believe Republicans have basically maxed out in Alabama.
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christian peralta
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« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2018, 06:38:23 PM »
slightly democrat, but trump (or another republican) will still win by a comfortable margin
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2018, 07:05:28 PM »
Slightly Democratic is possible, as with many safe Republican states for 2020 since Trump may have finally maxed out the white Republican vote in those states. Then again, people said that about Romney in 2012 and Trump somehow managed to improve on him.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #21 on: May 11, 2018, 10:29:22 PM »
Does Trump break 90% in Winston County or not?
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