Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2019, 06:44:30 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  Why is Indiana so Republican?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Why is Indiana so Republican?  (Read 1678 times)
bronz4141
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,246
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 08, 2018, 09:39:45 pm »

Yes, I know Indiana voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in Barack Obama in 2008 for the first time since 1964,

https://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/05/indiana-the-obama-state-that-got-away-123907

Despite the conservatism of Mitch Daniels, Vice President Mike Pence, the affluent fiscal conservatism of Susan Brooks, why is Indiana so Republican?
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,951
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2018, 10:13:39 pm »

Indiana is strange as it used to be one of the most unionized states and is so far the only state that has repealed it's RTW law only to have the GOP trash reinstate it after 2010
Logged
Red Tory Indy
Rookie
*
Posts: 23


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2018, 01:17:13 am »

Indiana kind of votes like you would expect most states with its demographics to vote.
-Indiana contains one large city which votes heavily D cancelled out by the heavily Republican Indianapolis suburbs.
-Several Republican leaning small cities and rural areas that outvote  the heavily D NW Indiana Chicago Suburbs/exurbs (Gary) and couple small college towns.
Logged
Great Society
progressive85
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,497
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2018, 06:45:10 am »

I don't know how Barack won it in 2008.  It was a huge swing from 2004.
Logged
Bismarck
Chancellor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2018, 08:48:10 am »

I don't know how Barack won it in 2008.  It was a huge swing from 2004.

He brought tens of thousands of new voters out in Marion County, and he cut the margins in the doughnut counties (the suburban counties that ring Marion) to the point that for once they didnít outvote Marion. He also overperformed among rural midwesterners generally, and got a big turnout among folks in Lafayette/West Lafayette to flip Tippecanoe County, home of Purdue University.
Logged
RINO Tom
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,351
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2018, 10:23:29 am »

Indiana kind of votes like you would expect most states with its demographics to vote.
-Indiana contains one large city which votes heavily D cancelled out by the heavily Republican Indianapolis suburbs.
-Several Republican leaning small cities and rural areas that outvote  the heavily D NW Indiana Chicago Suburbs/exurbs (Gary) and couple small college towns.

And Indianapolis is actually a fairly moderate to conservative town when you look at the White vote.  Any Democrat trying to win Indiana will need massive minority turnout there.
Logged
Ἅιδης
Hades
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,797


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2018, 10:40:56 am »

In 1992 it only voted for Bush because Mr. Potatoe was his running mate.
Logged
RINO Tom
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,351
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2018, 10:46:20 am »

In 1992 it only voted for Bush because Mr. Potatoe was his running mate.

Citation needed.
Logged
Ἅιδης
Hades
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,797


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2018, 10:57:54 am »

In 1992 it only voted for Bush because Mr. Potatoe was his running mate.

Citation needed.

It's just a feeling. Just like I have a feeling that Clinton won Tennessee twice thanks to his running mate.
Logged
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,506
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2018, 10:58:18 am »

In 1992 it only voted for Bush because Mr. Potatoe was his running mate.

Citation needed.

Bush only won it by 6%, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that Clinton could have carried it without Quayle on the GOP ticket.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,070
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2018, 11:00:14 am »

You mean suburbs like Carmel and Fishers? They seem like the places that would turn on the GOP over Trump, but yeah, it's too rural and Indianapolis isn't big like Chicago or the Twin Cities to cancel that out and its suburbs are more conservative.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,070
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 09, 2018, 11:00:47 am »

In 1992 it only voted for Bush because Mr. Potatoe was his running mate.

Citation needed.

Bush only won it by 6%, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that Clinton could have carried it without Quayle on the GOP ticket.

Regardless that was a fluke because of Perot.
Logged
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,506
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 09, 2018, 11:06:44 am »

In 1992 it only voted for Bush because Mr. Potatoe was his running mate.

Citation needed.

Bush only won it by 6%, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that Clinton could have carried it without Quayle on the GOP ticket.

Regardless that was a fluke because of Perot.
I don't know about Indiana specifically, but nationally, Perot took equally from Bush and Clinton. the idea that Perot cost him the election is still a myth.
Logged
RINO Tom
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,351
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: April 09, 2018, 11:16:43 am »

In 1992 it only voted for Bush because Mr. Potatoe was his running mate.

Citation needed.

Bush only won it by 6%, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that Clinton could have carried it without Quayle on the GOP ticket.

Regardless that was a fluke because of Perot.
I don't know about Indiana specifically, but nationally, Perot took equally from Bush and Clinton. the idea that Perot cost him the election is still a myth.

He could have taken equally nationally and still cost Bush the election.
Logged
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,506
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2018, 11:26:21 am »

In 1992 it only voted for Bush because Mr. Potatoe was his running mate.

Citation needed.

Bush only won it by 6%, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that Clinton could have carried it without Quayle on the GOP ticket.

Regardless that was a fluke because of Perot.
I don't know about Indiana specifically, but nationally, Perot took equally from Bush and Clinton. the idea that Perot cost him the election is still a myth.

He could have taken equally nationally and still cost Bush the election.
This is true, I would love to see state-by-state exit polls if they exist.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,791
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2018, 11:28:07 am »

In 1992 it only voted for Bush because Mr. Potatoe was his running mate.

Which is also why Clinton lost the state decisively in 1996 despite winning in an EC landslide and with Perot taking votes away from Dole?
Logged
Ἅιδης
Hades
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,797


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: April 09, 2018, 11:35:13 am »

In 1992 it only voted for Bush because Mr. Potatoe was his running mate.

Which is also why Clinton lost the state decisively in 1996 despite winning in an EC landslide and with Perot taking votes away from Dole?

Maybe the Hoosiers were still mad at Clinton for defeating their favorite son.
Logged
Chateaubriand Pact
AMB1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,870
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: April 09, 2018, 03:35:29 pm »

In 1992 it only voted for Bush because Mr. Potatoe was his running mate.

Citation needed.

Bush only won it by 6%, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that Clinton could have carried it without Quayle on the GOP ticket.

Regardless that was a fluke because of Perot.
I don't know about Indiana specifically, but nationally, Perot took equally from Bush and Clinton. the idea that Perot cost him the election is still a myth.

He could have taken equally nationally and still cost Bush the election.
This is true, I would love to see state-by-state exit polls if they exist.

Also worth noting that the "Perot costs Bush '92" has more to do with narrative than final results.

For much of the early race polling showed Bush and Perot fighting at about 35-45% of the vote each with Clinton well behind at ~25%. Perot's decision to leave the race in July (immediately after the DNC) forced his supporters to choose Bush or Clinton at the very moment that Clinton had the momentum. Clinton took a commanding lead in the polls and never looked back, even once Perot re-entered the race.

I'm not saying the narrative is accurate, but just looking at polling results to ask who Perot's supporters would have voted for if he never existed doesn't really acknowledge that he ran a full campaign (that was largely negative/anti-Bush) for a year.
Logged
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,110
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: April 10, 2018, 02:14:45 pm »

- Very conservative suburbs
- Largely rural
- White and Protestant, and of German origin
- Not many college towns
- Low minority population
Logged
RINO Tom
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,351
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: April 10, 2018, 03:19:38 pm »

- Very conservative suburbs
- Largely rural
- White and Protestant, and of German origin
- Not many college towns
- Low minority population

What would you consider "many" college towns?  You have Indiana, Purdue, Notre Dame, Indiana State, Butler, Ball State, etc. all in Indiana.
Logged
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,110
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: April 10, 2018, 04:46:20 pm »

- Very conservative suburbs
- Largely rural
- White and Protestant, and of German origin
- Not many college towns
- Low minority population

What would you consider "many" college towns?  You have Indiana, Purdue, Notre Dame, Indiana State, Butler, Ball State, etc. all in Indiana.
Well, clearly I just didn't know.
Logged
khuzifenq
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 270
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: April 10, 2018, 06:12:07 pm »

- Very conservative suburbs
- Largely rural
- White and Protestant, and of German origin
- Not many college towns
- Low minority population

Why is having a large German American community relevant? Iíve heard its early settlement by people from more southern colonies like Virginia has led to IN voting more like a southern state.
Logged
RINO Tom
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,351
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: April 10, 2018, 08:03:08 pm »

- Very conservative suburbs
- Largely rural
- White and Protestant, and of German origin
- Not many college towns
- Low minority population

Why is having a large German American community relevant? Iíve heard its early settlement by people from more southern colonies like Virginia has led to IN voting more like a southern state.

Voting Republican is not just analogous with voting like a Southern state, LOL.
Logged
Bismarck
Chancellor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: April 10, 2018, 08:17:17 pm »

- Very conservative suburbs
- Largely rural
- White and Protestant, and of German origin
- Not many college towns
- Low minority population

Why is having a large German American community relevant? Iíve heard its early settlement by people from more southern colonies like Virginia has led to IN voting more like a southern state.

Actually the southern (and more southern/Appalachian influenced) part of the state is traditionally more democratic. In 2016 rural southern Indiana voted more or less the same as rural northern Indiana but this has not usually been the case, especially for statewide elections.
Logged
khuzifenq
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 270
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: April 10, 2018, 09:24:51 pm »

- Very conservative suburbs
- Largely rural
- White and Protestant, and of German origin
- Not many college towns
- Low minority population

Why is having a large German American community relevant? Iíve heard its early settlement by people from more southern colonies like Virginia has led to IN voting more like a southern state.

Voting Republican is not just analogous with voting like a Southern state, LOL.

Someone on Atlas once said that was a factor in Indiana historically voting differently from Ohio and Illinois, I don't remember who. Maybe they said "conservative" instead of "Republican".
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC