2018 Irish 8th Amendment (Abortion) Referendum

[IceAgeComing]

I have friends who live in Ireland, some of whom were campaigning for the Repeal side.  Their attitude to this poll seems to be that its wrong in the size of the result but not the overall outcome and although I'm not there I'm probably inclined to agree.  While this poll has made me a lot more confident that Yes will win (if No wins then Ipsos may as well shut down immediately) I would be stunned if more people voted to repeal the eighth amendment than voted to legalise marriage equality.  There is an RTE exit poll dropping in an hour; I'm going to wait until that before I get too confident.

If it is correct though then not only is it a very good result for Ireland but its also an outlier when it comes to Irish elections - typically when it comes to referendums to liberalise laws on topics like this the polls are significantly better for Yes than the actual results turn out to be while this would suggest the opposite.  That's why people were pessimistic on the thing passing: history in Ireland suggested that it wouldn't.

[Wisconsin+17]

End result is that Ireland is doomed. Very sad.

[IceAgeComing]

Also I think that we need to thank the American pro-life movement for encouraging voters to support Repeal; your help was greatly appreciated!

[Gass3268]

Also I think that we need to thank the American pro-life movement for encouraging voters to support Repeal; your help was greatly appreciated!

Haha, love this!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Also I think that we need to thank the American pro-life movement for encouraging voters to support Repeal; your help was greatly appreciated!

Haha, love this!

I hope Ben Shapiro makes a video of him crying in response to this.

[YE]

I just can't be happy that abortion is being legalized. If I lived in Ireland, I would vote yes but abortion isn't an ideal practice that should get one upbeat over.

[TheSaint250]

I just can't be happy that abortion is being legalized. If I lived in Ireland, I would vote yes but abortion isn't an ideal practice that should get one upbeat.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I just can't be happy that abortion is being legalized. If I lived in Ireland, I would vote yes but abortion isn't an ideal practice that should get one upbeat over.

I'm happy for the women whose painful decision to have an abortion will no longer be complicated by the fact they have to run away from their home and to a different country just to get one.

Many women who can't afford to travel were forced to rely on more dangerous techniques to terminate the abortion. And many of them died.

The freedom for women to finally be able to (safely) choose and be happy is something to celebrate

[Wisconsin+17]

Apparently the Irish are so happy about Ireland that the solution for Ireland is to kill off the Irish.

What's next, Thanos killing off half because you've got too many Irish?

[IceAgeComing]

That is actually one of the questions that will be asked following the result if this is anything close to true: the No campaign moved in a very... distasteful way towards the end of the campaign and if that exit poll is anything close to the result you would have to think that it demonstrates that the No campaign strategy heavily backfired.  It also demonstrates the power of a positive message in a referendum campaign; in the general area the referendum campaigns that won or did significantly better than they were expected to have been the ones that managed to broadly campaign in a positive light; while those who went negative all of the time tended to struggle.

I still don't believe that it will break the 61% that the Marriage referendum got but even that would be an impressively large figure and demonstrates the overwhelming change that has happened in the country - remember that its only been twenty years since Divorce was legalised and that was as close a referendum as you could get.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

That is actually one of the questions that will be asked following the result if this is anything close to true: the No campaign moved in a very... distasteful way towards the end of the campaign and if that exit poll is anything close to the result you would have to think that it demonstrates that the No campaign strategy heavily backfired.  It also demonstrates the power of a positive message in a referendum campaign; in the general area the referendum campaigns that won or did significantly better than they were expected to have been the ones that managed to broadly campaign in a positive light; while those who went negative all of the time tended to struggle.

I still don't believe that it will break the 61% that the Marriage referendum got but even that would be an impressively large figure and demonstrates the overwhelming change that has happened in the country - remember that its only been twenty years since Divorce was legalised and that was as close a referendum as you could get.

I have been following numerous pro-life campaign Facebook pages and none of them have been negative.

[IceAgeComing]

That is actually one of the questions that will be asked following the result if this is anything close to true: the No campaign moved in a very... distasteful way towards the end of the campaign and if that exit poll is anything close to the result you would have to think that it demonstrates that the No campaign strategy heavily backfired.  It also demonstrates the power of a positive message in a referendum campaign; in the general area the referendum campaigns that won or did significantly better than they were expected to have been the ones that managed to broadly campaign in a positive light; while those who went negative all of the time tended to struggle.

I still don't believe that it will break the 61% that the Marriage referendum got but even that would be an impressively large figure and demonstrates the overwhelming change that has happened in the country - remember that its only been twenty years since Divorce was legalised and that was as close a referendum as you could get.

I have been following numerous pro-life campaign Facebook pages and none of them have been negative.

I don't see what random Facebook pages have to go with the official No campaign?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That is actually one of the questions that will be asked following the result if this is anything close to true: the No campaign moved in a very... distasteful way towards the end of the campaign and if that exit poll is anything close to the result you would have to think that it demonstrates that the No campaign strategy heavily backfired.  It also demonstrates the power of a positive message in a referendum campaign; in the general area the referendum campaigns that won or did significantly better than they were expected to have been the ones that managed to broadly campaign in a positive light; while those who went negative all of the time tended to struggle.

I still don't believe that it will break the 61% that the Marriage referendum got but even that would be an impressively large figure and demonstrates the overwhelming change that has happened in the country - remember that its only been twenty years since Divorce was legalised and that was as close a referendum as you could get.

I agree. A lot of people consider themselves "Pro-Life" in Ireland, but it makes sense that a lot of them were driven to vote yes just because of how odious the No campaign was.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's actually a fascinating view for liberals. What are your thoughts on Wilberforce? Do you believe that his campaign was 'distasteful'?

What about PETA? What about the Mideast? See, the left is always using dead bodies in their campaigns - when it suits their agenda.

And why? Because they are attempting to appeal to the essential humanity of the victims. Slavery isn't real unless people get to see the slaves. Same with abortion.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

That is actually one of the questions that will be asked following the result if this is anything close to true: the No campaign moved in a very... distasteful way towards the end of the campaign and if that exit poll is anything close to the result you would have to think that it demonstrates that the No campaign strategy heavily backfired.  It also demonstrates the power of a positive message in a referendum campaign; in the general area the referendum campaigns that won or did significantly better than they were expected to have been the ones that managed to broadly campaign in a positive light; while those who went negative all of the time tended to struggle.

I still don't believe that it will break the 61% that the Marriage referendum got but even that would be an impressively large figure and demonstrates the overwhelming change that has happened in the country - remember that its only been twenty years since Divorce was legalised and that was as close a referendum as you could get.

I have been following numerous pro-life campaign Facebook pages and none of them have been negative.

I don't see what random Facebook pages have to go with the official No campaign?

"Pro-Life Campaign Ireland" is one of them, as well as SaveThe8th, the Students Against Repeal, and the LoveBoth Project.  American non-profit Let Them Live has been in Ireland and has been great as well.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Does anyone remember what the exit polls for the Marriage Ref were again?

[rob in cal]

  Were there many prominent people outside of the Catholic Church, say in media, law, business etc, who took an active part in the no campaign?  What I'm wondering is if say the electorate came in at say 65-35, how about the elites? 

[Clyde1998]

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1000139277689393153

[YE]

I just can't be happy that abortion is being legalized. If I lived in Ireland, I would vote yes but abortion isn't an ideal practice that should get one upbeat over.

I'm happy for the women whose painful decision to have an abortion will no longer be complicated by the fact they have to run away from their home and to a different country just to get one.

Many women who can't afford to travel were forced to rely on more dangerous techniques to terminate the abortion. And many of them died.

The freedom for women to finally be able to (safely) choose and be happy is something to celebrate

I get that but abortion just isn't a topic over which people should be celebrating. It's a disgusting procedure but also a necessary evil.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1000139277689393153

WHHHAAAAAAAAA

[ON Progressive]

I can’t say I saw this coming. Well done Ireland!

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1000139277689393153

WHHHAAAAAAAAA

Need to get some Irish beer tonight to celebrate!

[JGibson]

It feels so good that the 8th Amendment in Ireland is likely dead.

[Skill and Chance]

  Were there many prominent people outside of the Catholic Church, say in media, law, business etc, who took an active part in the no campaign?  What I'm wondering is if say the electorate came in at say 65-35, how about the elites? 

If it follows social issue referenda in other Western countries/states/local governments, a 70/30 overall result implies something like 90/10 "elite" support.  However, could Ireland be a local exception (like Utah in the US?) where the elites are very, very religious?  The Dublin results suggest not.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MOE for RTE is 1.6%, for Irish Times 1.5%