2018 Irish 8th Amendment (Abortion) Referendum

[Tender Branson]

Tender, although your prediction was still 10 points off, you were the closest lol.

Don't count the chicken before they are hatched: the actual vote could still be narrower than what the exit polls show ... 60-40 or something.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hey all! I'm not quite back yet, but I'm checking in to relay a message from Nathan (who really isn't in the mood for the vitriol of this thread). So, there you have it:

"To snowclone a great man (the author of the seminal fanfiction "Harry Potter Becomes a Communist"), NOOOOOOOO HOW COULD IRELAND REPEAL THE 8TH oh well catholic ireland was an abusive carceral state anyways.

In all seriousness, even though the result itself is morally atrocious, it would be hard to find fault with the political and cultural process here were it not for the fact that the campaign was fought (yes, yes, on both sides) in bad faith in a theater of shameless bullsh**t pseudohistory (if I never hear about Brigid of Kildare, Compassionate Abortion Care Provider again it'll be too soon), naked emotional appeals, and fallacies of relevance galore.  God bless and keep Anglophone pro-choice rhetoric far away from us."

As for me, I'm obviously happy about the result, though honestly I'm also a bit worried about the tendencies of the pro-choice movement these days and hope that the Irish government won't overreach with this. Still, great victory for women's rights.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Also I think that we need to thank the American pro-life movement for encouraging voters to support Repeal; your help was greatly appreciated!

Thank you, abortion-obsessed Americans! Now you can slowly be left as the only nation where it's a major issue

"We're the modern-day abolitionists!" I frantically type as I watch my childish, reactionary crusade against an increasingly anodyne medical practice receive yet another unequivocal blow from the BEAUTIFUL voters of the 21st Century.

To be clear: History is not on your side, no matter how much mental gymnastics you perform to delude yourself into thinking otherwise.

This a thousand times.

Congrats Ireland on joining the civilized world by putting choice and those progressive feels over lives.

Quelle libertarien

Haven't you heard? You use the libertarianism card only when the poor want to live normally or the gays don't want to be discriminated by businesses or something.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

First results in:

81% YES in one box in a precinct in Cork South Central

Don’t worry. I’m not going to give second by second updates.

[cp]

YES! Chock one up for the good guys.

Some demographic breakdowns are coming in from the exit poll now. Only age group to vote 'no' was over 65s. Helps the interpretation that the fanatical resistance to abortion, at least in Ireland, is a product of a generation.

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1000275400495386625

[America Needs R'hllor]

Congrats Ireland on joining the civilized world by putting choice and those progressive feels over lives.

Quelle libertarien

Haven't you heard? You use the libertarianism card only when the poor want to live normally or the gays don't want to be discriminated by businesses or something.

Not true

Of course, not for all libertarians. But for some, like the quoted poster or Rand\Ron Paul? Definitely is.

YES! Chock one up for the good guys.

Some demographic breakdowns are coming in from the exit poll now. Only age group to vote 'no' was over 65s. Helps the interpretation that the fanatical resistance to abortion, at least in Ireland, is a product of a generation.

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1000275400495386625

Yep, proves once more that history is not on the side of the pro-life movement, and in a few decades, it might become a marginal force at best, maybe with some strength only in the U.S.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Cork North Central- 63% YES 37% NO

Cork South Central- 67% YES 33% NO

Final tallies

[TheSaint250]

According to an exit poll reported by EuropeElects, FG and SF voters voted 75% in favor of repealing the amendment, but only 50% of FF supporters did.

Is this to be expected? I would’ve expected the liberal party to be more in favor than the Christian democratic party, even with Varadkar supporting it.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

According to an exit poll reported by EuropeElects, FG and SF voters voted 75% in favor of repealing the amendment, but only 50% of FF supporters did.

Is this to be expected? I would’ve expected the liberal party to be more in favor than the Christian democratic party, even with Varadkar supporting it.

EU Parliamentary groups are meaningless. FF voters were always going to be Anti than FG ones due to the current demographic nature of both parties' support base.

[Oryxslayer]

Where you guys seeing results - The Irish Times referendum page has nothing yet. Are these just reports from people at the count, or state numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Where you guys seeing results - The Irish Times referendum page has nothing yet. Are these just reports from people at the count, or state numbers.

The reports are from the Irish TV and newspapers.

According to these results so far, the exit poll looks more or less accurate.

[sinngael]

Looking like my home constituency of Donegal is voting No, 52% at the moment, annoying but not unexpected, Lots of emigration in the last decade from this county so a much older age demographic than others, plus Donegal always seems to buck the national trend

[Oryxslayer]

Galway East 60.19% - 39.81%

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/abortion-referendum/results

[kph14]

Galway East is the first reporting constituency. 60-40 yes. Does not strike me as a particularly liberal area as it only voted 53-47 for marriage equality

[Tender Branson]

Galway East voted 80-20 against abortion back in 1983.

Now 60-40 in favour.

[sinngael]

Galway East is the first reporting constituency. 60-40 yes. Does not strike me as a particularly liberal area as it only voted 53-47 for marriage equality

Back in the 1983 referendum on abortion it voted 80% in favour of the 8th amendment so quite a turnaround

[sinngael]

Dublin central to declare next I believe so it should be interesting to see how high its vote goes

[sinngael]

Dublin central in, 76% in favour of repeal

[Oryxslayer]

Dublin Central 76.51% - 23.49%
Cork North Central 64.02% - 35.98%
Cork South Central 68.84% - 31.16%

[Tintrlvr]

Wexford 68.40%-31.60%

Was 73% in favor of the 8th amendment in 1983.

[Oryxslayer]

Wicklow 74.26% - 25.74%
Wexford 68.40% - 31.60%
Waterford 69.43% - 30.57%

Nation is 68.72% - 31.28% at 7/40 regions in

[Person Man]

I ate at a restaurant in Wicklow. Really good dough and fried cheese. The roads there were scary in the hills.

[Oryxslayer]

Clare 64.28% - 35.72%
Limerick County 58.08% - 41.92%
Laois 61.35% - 38.65%
Kildare South 70.66% - 29.34%

[EPG]

Wicklow approx. = Dublin's Connecticut?

The amount of handwringing in this thread for such a lopsided result, if the exit poll is anywhere remotely close to true...

This is pretty much how pessimistic Irish liberals are all the time, recall also that Ireland is the most affected EU country by the Brexit referendum.

 Were there many prominent people outside of the Catholic Church, say in media, law, business etc, who took an active part in the no campaign?  What I'm wondering is if say the electorate came in at say 65-35, how about the elites?  

If it follows social issue referenda in other Western countries/states/local governments, a 70/30 overall result implies something like 90/10 "elite" support.  However, could Ireland be a local exception (like Utah in the US?) where the elites are very, very religious?  The Dublin results suggest not.

No, the elite is not generally more conservative. Rigorous Catholic observance and conservatism is a little higher in the Dublin business and professional elite, but nowadays that's so international (lots of UK returners) that I doubt it will last. What is very different is that the "average" elite like a bureaucrat is more likely to be liberal than the "average" person in the street.

It's a beautiful day, 20C. I won't be wasting time analysing it online, sorry!

[Panhandle Progressive]

Social change in Ireland has been seismic.
1980: Contraception legalized by prescription for family planning purposes only.
1983: Constitutional ban on abortion introduced by referendum. Life of the unborn equals the life of the mother.
1985: Contraception becomes available at pharmacies for over 18s without prescription.
1986: Referendum to remove the constitutional ban on divorce fails.
1993: Condoms no longer classified as contraceptives and become widely available. Homosexual activity decriminalized.
1995: Divorce legalized by referendum -- 50.3% in favor.
2003: Morning after pill becomes available with a prescription only.
2011: Morning after pill becomes available without a prescription.
2015: Marriage Equality legalized by referendum.