2018 Irish 8th Amendment (Abortion) Referendum
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  2018 Irish 8th Amendment (Abortion) Referendum
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Author Topic: 2018 Irish 8th Amendment (Abortion) Referendum  (Read 22342 times)
MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #25 on: May 14, 2018, 08:19:47 PM »

The numbers are going to tighten but I still expect a 4-6 point win for Yes.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #26 on: May 14, 2018, 08:23:21 PM »
« Edited: May 14, 2018, 08:31:25 PM by PittsburghSteel »

The numbers are going to tighten but I still expect a 4-6 point win for Yes.

God forbid the No side wins...

A group of people deciding to restrict an individual's bodily autonomy makes sick.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #27 on: May 15, 2018, 07:05:56 AM »

There hasn't been a poll in over a week now and referendums on this nature regularly see sudden shifts at the end of the campaign.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #28 on: May 15, 2018, 07:17:47 AM »

Ftr, I'm increasingly unsure what's going to happen in this, but either way, come at the very latest 5pm on May 26th a lot of people are going to be in complete hysterics.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #29 on: May 15, 2018, 02:27:04 PM »

Tetro do you have a prediction?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #30 on: May 15, 2018, 02:31:12 PM »

I initially thought it would be a 'No' and now I'm not so sure. Anything from a 57-43 Yes win to a 60-40 No win wouldn't surprise me. A lot of voters don't have firm opinions on the issue but are generally not warm to the idea of elective abortion but aren't precisely warm to the Pro-Life Movement or the 8th generally.
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EPG
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« Reply #31 on: May 15, 2018, 02:45:02 PM »

Well, the Yes posters are very clear what they support: expand medical care and give women choice. Almost nobody is "pro-abortion", supportive of abortion as a systemic policy, in any country actually; I suppose some anti-natalist governments were. But this is a distinction many are content to miss in order to promulgate the usual myths about politicians being lyin' Hillarys, or a psycho Jewish Soros conspiracy.

Other than by the Trots, choice isn't being mentioned and the focus is pretty exclusively on hard cases. I'm pointing out that support for the principle of abortion without restrictions among the general population is fairly weak (21% in an Irish Times opinion poll last year with 67% opposed) so the messaging is necessarily circumspect to the point of avoidance.

I'm not an anti-semite or even a decided voter yet, by the way, but thanks for the guilt by association.

Apologies, I see now how you interpreted it that way. I don't think that and have respect for you as an "observer". I mean the Justin Barrett types who staff the permanent No campaign. Your interpretation of socially progressive causes tends to be ungenerous; mine of the opposite side is equally so.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #32 on: May 15, 2018, 02:53:03 PM »

I initially thought it would be a 'No' and now I'm not so sure. Anything from a 57-43 Yes win to a 60-40 No win wouldn't surprise me. A lot of voters don't have firm opinions on the issue but are generally not warm to the idea of elective abortion but aren't precisely warm to the Pro-Life Movement or the 8th generally.

I agree that a 57-43 Yes win is possible, but I can't really imagine the Yes side's support slumping to 40% in your No scenario. The polls seem to show the Yes at around 46%-48%. But of course, you're the one on the ground.
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EPG
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« Reply #33 on: May 15, 2018, 03:10:14 PM »

My short-range radar record is poor. But I expect -
If the vote were today, Dublin Yes would not fall far from the 71% in 2015.
Yes outside east Leinster, Cork and Galway would be significantly lower than 2015, and may not carry any such constituency - maybe Waterford.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #34 on: May 15, 2018, 03:17:32 PM »

I initially thought it would be a 'No' and now I'm not so sure. Anything from a 57-43 Yes win to a 60-40 No win wouldn't surprise me. A lot of voters don't have firm opinions on the issue but are generally not warm to the idea of elective abortion but aren't precisely warm to the Pro-Life Movement or the 8th generally.

I agree that a 57-43 Yes win is possible, but I can't really imagine the Yes side's support slumping to 40% in your No scenario. The polls seem to show the Yes at around 46%-48%. But of course, you're the one on the ground.

As it's an issue with a huge amount of undecided voters (all posters note this, which wasn't the case in 2015) that could easily respond en masse to signals in the campaign. I cite you the 1986 referendum on Divorce.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #35 on: May 15, 2018, 03:20:55 PM »

The assumption that there will be a big landslide in Dublin - while likely - is far too idly assumed by the Yes campaign and Media. There isn't that much campaign infrastructure and a lot of it is being driven by people unused to political campaigns. I now live in the Dublin Bay North constituency (which will probably be the best constituency for No in Dublin, but should be comfortably Yes in any result) and it's noticeable how much more No posters there are than Yes ones, and the No has actually been more visible around where I live. Now that may not say much, but does suggest that they are more active knocking on doors and trying to get to attention of its core vote.
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EPG
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« Reply #36 on: May 15, 2018, 03:47:27 PM »

I'm not part of either media or the Yes campaign, but the evidence doesn't support any Dublin figure below 65%, if the vote were to be called today. My starting point is not really 2015 but 2002: subtract a few percent from Yes for the intransigent pro-life/No voters, a few more for 12 weeks being too much (let's be realistic about the size of this demographic, people will always find a reason to vote Yes or No). But add a lot for demographic shift away from 1970s estates toward 90s housing, add a little for social attitudes and decline in religious observance (please, let's don't pretend this doesn't matter), add some for the undoubted Dublin-heavy Yes campaign apparatus. I wonder whether Dublin Rathdown with its concentration of late 1960s-80s estates won't be the biggest Dublin No this time. It was pretty good for No in 2015.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #37 on: May 15, 2018, 04:34:34 PM »

Rathdown - where I will be voting - is a distinct possibility for the biggest Dublin No. I agree that 60-65% is likely, and 2002 is a better comparison in some ways than 2015 we are very likely to see much bigger turnout this time than in 2002, and I'm not 100% sure who that will benefit.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #38 on: May 20, 2018, 12:02:40 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2018, 12:10:04 PM by PittsburghSteel »

New polls coming in. It looks increasingly likey the Yes side is going to win.


Sunday Business Post/Red C poll-

Yes: 56% (+3)
No: 27% (+1)

B&A-

Yes: 52% (+5)
No: 24% (-5)

What the polls are showing is that the undecideds are breaking for the Yes campaign.

If a "Brexit" moment for this referendum were to show, now would be the time.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #39 on: May 20, 2018, 04:04:12 PM »

That isn't what those polls show.

The polls are very similar to the gay marriage referendum, so there will probably be a similar range of error. In that case, I predict about 53-47 for Yes.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #40 on: May 20, 2018, 06:28:48 PM »

That isn't what those polls show.

The polls are very similar to the gay marriage referendum, so there will probably be a similar range of error. In that case, I predict about 53-47 for Yes.

Well, I just posted the polls
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EPG
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« Reply #41 on: May 21, 2018, 09:11:02 PM »

B&A raw "Yes" figure was bang-on in 2015, albeit I'd guess due to luck or accident, given their record is not hot.
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« Reply #42 on: May 23, 2018, 09:12:57 PM »

Poll from last week: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-repeal-has-large-but-reduced-lead-1.3497830





see thread for comments on possible reasons for discrepancies.
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EPG
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« Reply #43 on: May 24, 2018, 12:59:37 PM »

There's a huge weight on the "social conservative" bar on citizenship, without which it'd be negative too. Citizenship passed with nearly 80% Yes and support from the vast majority of politicians; it's not such a good comparison, only a few really partisan people voted against ending birthright citizenship. I would instead say all nos are under-stated by polls, but everyone nowadays prices that in, and the actual problem is that they are so volatile.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #44 on: May 24, 2018, 03:22:48 PM »

The numbers are going to tighten but I still expect a 4-6 point win for Yes.
The events of the past few weeks have further solidified this prediction in my mind.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #45 on: May 24, 2018, 03:58:11 PM »

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #46 on: May 24, 2018, 04:16:43 PM »

Predicting a 54-56% vote for Yes.
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JGibson
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« Reply #47 on: May 24, 2018, 05:57:11 PM »

I predict the YES (repeal the 8th) side will win, and by a 3%-7% margin.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #48 on: May 24, 2018, 06:06:03 PM »

I predict the YES (repeal the 8th) side will win, and by a 3%-7% margin.

That sounds about right. No will come close but not quite pull it off
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #49 on: May 24, 2018, 07:25:08 PM »

VOTE NO!!! Stop the baby killers!
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