2018 Irish 8th Amendment (Abortion) Referendum

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm unfortunately predicting a victory for Yes, but the graphic on the last slide gives me some hope and I have heard positive things from people I know in Ireland.  Time to pray.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

59.3% Yes, for abortion rights
40.7% No

[Dr. MB]

I think it’ll very narrowly pass.

[Tender Branson]

I think the absolute worst-case-scenario would be a slight NO-win, with exit polls showing women voting YES by a good margin and men voting strongly against ...

[Hydera]

I think the absolute worst-case-scenario would be a slight NO-win, with exit polls showing women voting YES by a good margin and men voting strongly against ...

In most polls ive seen, Men are supporting yes at higher margins than women which is probably because for older more religious women its an issue that pertains to them. In the US for example, its usually older religious women 55+ who are backbone of the anti-choice campaigns.

[DC Al Fine]

I think the absolute worst-case-scenario would be a slight NO-win, with exit polls showing women voting YES by a good margin and men voting strongly against ...

In most polls ive seen, Men are supporting yes at higher margins than women which is probably because for older more religious women its an issue that pertains to them. In the US for example, its usually older religious women 55+ who are backbone of the anti-choice campaigns.

Yeah Tender. You're listening too much to your own side's rhetoric about "controlling women's bodies". Most polling indicates that the sexes are evenly split or that women are marginally more pro-life.

[Gass3268]

I'm unfortunately predicting a victory for Yes, but the graphic on the last slide gives me some hope and I have heard positive things from people I know in Ireland.  Time to pray.

I'm praying to God for Yes!

[_]

53.6% Yes
46.4% No

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This guy is giving the turnout reports. Dublin turnout appears to be higher now than it was at this time during the Marriage Referendum.

https://twitter.com/raymcadam/status/1000035016871735296?s=21

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This Central Dublin precinct is at a whopping 66% turnout

https://twitter.com/raymcadam/status/1000003900756430849?s=21

[rob in cal]

   the male female vote breakdown will be interesting, also social class breakdown, and married vs non married.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

At this point, turnout might actually exceed GE figures... at least in Dublin.

https://twitter.com/joanburton/status/1000038691103035392?s=21

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Turnout in parts of Dublin hitting 40% as of 4:30 PM

https://twitter.com/irishtimes/status/1000041644949897216?s=21

[100% pro-life no matter what]

According to a friend of mine in Ireland, results will probably start coming out between 1 and 2 PM tomorrow Irish time, which is 8-9 AM ET/ 5-6 AM PT.  Not sure why it takes so long.

[EPG]

This Central Dublin precinct is at a whopping 66% turnout

https://twitter.com/raymcadam/status/1000003900756430849?s=21

"Supplementary register" is the late applications for votes and there is hard evidence* that they turn out more than people who register in time for the main February register. In Dublin, where most polling places have 2-6 boxes, they all go to the same ballot box at their polling place no matter their address. Those boxes have systemically higher turnout.

Tiny detail, this supplement also contains the under-18s at the time of compiling the register who will be over-18 on polling day and apply for a vote; more anecdotally, lots of people who have turned 18 since the last election.

* a rarity in Gaelopsephology!

According to a friend of mine in Ireland, results will probably start coming out between 1 and 2 PM tomorrow Irish time, which is 8-9 AM ET/ 5-6 AM PT.  Not sure why it takes so long.

Incredibly, every Irish vote involves leaving the ballot papers uncounted from 10pm until the following morning. This is a bizarre but pragmatic practice. You can tell Ireland has has pretty fair elections for over 90 years straight, from the fact that it is not a cause of outrage. Good news is that there will also be exit polls after 2200 local time, which is 1700 in NY and Tallahassee, etc.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Why does Ireland have such very anti-abortion laws?

[_]

Why does Ireland have such very anti-abortion laws?

Because the stereotype of them being super Catholic is real in this case. 

[ON Progressive]

Why does Ireland have such very anti-abortion laws?

Catholic tradition. Ireland was super socially conservative until very recently. They had a constitutional ban on divorce until 1995, and that was only removed after a referendum won by only 8000 votes because of Dublin going heavily for repeal.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

With two and a half hours left of voting, turnout is hitting 55% in parts of Dublin.

[ON Progressive]

With two and a half hours left of voting, turnout is hitting 55% in parts of Dublin.

What is turnout in the rest of the country though?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

With two and a half hours left of voting, turnout is hitting 55% in parts of Dublin.

What is turnout in the rest of the country though?

Its pretty high, especially in Dublin. It’s projected to be higher than the 2015 marriage referendum (if Twitter is to be believed).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Roscommon, the only area to vote No in the 2015 marriage referendum, is reporting a rather low turnout of 40.2%

[EPG]

Why does Ireland have such very anti-abortion laws?

Well, it's because there is a constitutional amendment, isn't it? The proximate cause of that amendment being Roe v Wade and the fear of similar rights being discovered, so don't blame the Catholics for that one.

[ON Progressive]

Roscommon, the only area to vote No in the 2015 marriage referendum, is reporting a rather low turnout of 40.2%

Yeah, repeal should win. Very high turnout in Dublin (which always votes very socially liberal in these referendums) and really bad turnout in the most socially conservative part of the country basically guarantees a win for repeal.