2018 Irish 8th Amendment (Abortion) Referendum

[EPG]

Ireland is having a referendum in late May on whether to repeal the 8th Amendment, which constitutionally protects unborn babies from abortion.

Nope, only in cases where the life of the mother is not at risk. So not permitted in cases where the health of the mother is at risk, or where risk to life is not certain, or incest, rape, etc. or for any other reason.

Everybody expects the poll numbers to tighten, but that's based on historical experience and conventional wisdom, rather than anything particular to this issue. Furthermore, almost any poll can be made fit the tightening narrative, if you fiddle with the voter turnout certainty numbers. Much more relevant is the risk that the polls are just bafflingly wrong, which happens often. The gay marriage referendum polls were quite accurate by the end, though not at all precise. Many more times, the polls were just completely wrong by large double-digits (even in the week prior to polling).

[EPG]

A poll has been released: with the caveat that polling referendums is frequently, but unpredictably, inaccurate, the main figures are 47 Yes to 28 No, with 20 explicitly undecided. More surprising than the headline figures, which agree with recent polls, is that the undecided voters claim to be more sympathetic to Yes than No, suggesting a Yes result comparable to the marriage referendum. This I find very hard to believe, but there you go.

FYI, votes are cast on 25 May.

[EPG]

To take a hypothetical, if Northern Ireland were part of the Republic of Ireland, would that hurt or help efforts to repeal the abortion law?    

It's very hard to say, given that we don't even know how ROI will vote, and turnout in NI can also vary by issue. The historical facts are that as part of a larger state, with occasional pressure from a minority in Westminster to harmonise abortion law to the rest of the UK, NI has retained the same prohibition-in-practice as ROI, in part through anti-abortion agitation and community pressure against abortion clinics to close them down. All the grand sociological facts about different demographics don't matter here: the DUP and SDLP in particular are strongly pro-life, whereas in Alliance and the UUP it's a matter for legislator conscience, while SF naturally agrees with whatever the leadership says or they quit the party.

[EPG]

Well, the Yes posters are very clear what they support: expand medical care and give women choice. Almost nobody is "pro-abortion", supportive of abortion as a systemic policy, in any country actually; I suppose some anti-natalist governments were. But this is a distinction many are content to miss in order to promulgate the usual myths about politicians being lyin' Hillarys, or a psycho Jewish Soros conspiracy.

[EPG]

Well, the Yes posters are very clear what they support: expand medical care and give women choice. Almost nobody is "pro-abortion", supportive of abortion as a systemic policy, in any country actually; I suppose some anti-natalist governments were. But this is a distinction many are content to miss in order to promulgate the usual myths about politicians being lyin' Hillarys, or a psycho Jewish Soros conspiracy.

Other than by the Trots, choice isn't being mentioned and the focus is pretty exclusively on hard cases. I'm pointing out that support for the principle of abortion without restrictions among the general population is fairly weak (21% in an Irish Times opinion poll last year with 67% opposed) so the messaging is necessarily circumspect to the point of avoidance.

I'm not an anti-semite or even a decided voter yet, by the way, but thanks for the guilt by association.

Apologies, I see now how you interpreted it that way. I don't think that and have respect for you as an "observer". I mean the Justin Barrett types who staff the permanent No campaign. Your interpretation of socially progressive causes tends to be ungenerous; mine of the opposite side is equally so.

[EPG]

My short-range radar record is poor. But I expect -
If the vote were today, Dublin Yes would not fall far from the 71% in 2015.
Yes outside east Leinster, Cork and Galway would be significantly lower than 2015, and may not carry any such constituency - maybe Waterford.

[EPG]

I'm not part of either media or the Yes campaign, but the evidence doesn't support any Dublin figure below 65%, if the vote were to be called today. My starting point is not really 2015 but 2002: subtract a few percent from Yes for the intransigent pro-life/No voters, a few more for 12 weeks being too much (let's be realistic about the size of this demographic, people will always find a reason to vote Yes or No). But add a lot for demographic shift away from 1970s estates toward 90s housing, add a little for social attitudes and decline in religious observance (please, let's don't pretend this doesn't matter), add some for the undoubted Dublin-heavy Yes campaign apparatus. I wonder whether Dublin Rathdown with its concentration of late 1960s-80s estates won't be the biggest Dublin No this time. It was pretty good for No in 2015.

[EPG]

B&A raw "Yes" figure was bang-on in 2015, albeit I'd guess due to luck or accident, given their record is not hot.

[EPG]

There's a huge weight on the "social conservative" bar on citizenship, without which it'd be negative too. Citizenship passed with nearly 80% Yes and support from the vast majority of politicians; it's not such a good comparison, only a few really partisan people voted against ending birthright citizenship. I would instead say all nos are under-stated by polls, but everyone nowadays prices that in, and the actual problem is that they are so volatile.

[EPG]

This Central Dublin precinct is at a whopping 66% turnout

https://twitter.com/raymcadam/status/1000003900756430849?s=21

"Supplementary register" is the late applications for votes and there is hard evidence* that they turn out more than people who register in time for the main February register. In Dublin, where most polling places have 2-6 boxes, they all go to the same ballot box at their polling place no matter their address. Those boxes have systemically higher turnout.

Tiny detail, this supplement also contains the under-18s at the time of compiling the register who will be over-18 on polling day and apply for a vote; more anecdotally, lots of people who have turned 18 since the last election.

* a rarity in Gaelopsephology!

According to a friend of mine in Ireland, results will probably start coming out between 1 and 2 PM tomorrow Irish time, which is 8-9 AM ET/ 5-6 AM PT.  Not sure why it takes so long.

Incredibly, every Irish vote involves leaving the ballot papers uncounted from 10pm until the following morning. This is a bizarre but pragmatic practice. You can tell Ireland has has pretty fair elections for over 90 years straight, from the fact that it is not a cause of outrage. Good news is that there will also be exit polls after 2200 local time, which is 1700 in NY and Tallahassee, etc.

[EPG]

Why does Ireland have such very anti-abortion laws?

Well, it's because there is a constitutional amendment, isn't it? The proximate cause of that amendment being Roe v Wade and the fear of similar rights being discovered, so don't blame the Catholics for that one.

[EPG]

BREAKING: Irish Times Exit Poll shows that Repeal has won in a landslide

Yes: 68%
No: 32%

Hahahahahahahahaha

[EPG]

Wicklow approx. = Dublin's Connecticut?

The amount of handwringing in this thread for such a lopsided result, if the exit poll is anywhere remotely close to true...

This is pretty much how pessimistic Irish liberals are all the time, recall also that Ireland is the most affected EU country by the Brexit referendum.

 Were there many prominent people outside of the Catholic Church, say in media, law, business etc, who took an active part in the no campaign?  What I'm wondering is if say the electorate came in at say 65-35, how about the elites?  

If it follows social issue referenda in other Western countries/states/local governments, a 70/30 overall result implies something like 90/10 "elite" support.  However, could Ireland be a local exception (like Utah in the US?) where the elites are very, very religious?  The Dublin results suggest not.

No, the elite is not generally more conservative. Rigorous Catholic observance and conservatism is a little higher in the Dublin business and professional elite, but nowadays that's so international (lots of UK returners) that I doubt it will last. What is very different is that the "average" elite like a bureaucrat is more likely to be liberal than the "average" person in the street.

It's a beautiful day, 20C. I won't be wasting time analysing it online, sorry!

[EPG]

Hmm, it's a good story, but the margin was 2,500, and as there are about 6,500 adults in the Bundoran - Ballyshannon area, that probably means less than 3,000 voters.

[EPG]

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0526/966120-eighth-amendment-referendum/

Exit Polls. What's the divergence with finna fail and every other party?

Older voters, and, the only parliamentary party to majority-oppose the law. As for why there is an age gap, it's hard to explain succinctly but Catholic observance and affinity have collapsed in each generation.

Social change in Ireland has been seismic.
1980: Contraception legalized by prescription for family planning purposes only.
1983: Constitutional ban on abortion introduced by referendum. Life of the unborn equals the life of the mother.
1985: Contraception becomes available at pharmacies for over 18s without prescription.
1986: Referendum to remove the constitutional ban on divorce fails.
1993: Condoms no longer classified as contraceptives and become widely available. Homosexual activity decriminalized.
1995: Divorce legalized by referendum -- 50.3% in favor.
2003: Morning after pill becomes available with a prescription only.
2011: Morning after pill becomes available without a prescription.
2015: Marriage Equality legalized by referendum.

There is no doubt this will be called a revolution in the history books.

Varadkar already referred to a 'quiet revolution' yesterday, which is a delightful formulation for what's been going on. I'd never put it together before, but Ireland in the 00s really does look like Quebec in the 60s.

He's such a wonk that he almost certainly knows that, or hires someone who does (Patrick Geoghegan?).

[EPG]

So say the exit polls (that overstated Yes by more than the Margin of Error). It may even be true, but what a hyperbolic interpretation.