2018 Irish 8th Amendment (Abortion) Referendum

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

When undecideds were excluded the results were

Repeal: 63%
Retain: 37%

I think it's safe to say that the repeal side is going to win but it will be closer than SSM.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

U2 endorsed the Yes campaign

https://twitter.com/U2/status/991432734710132737

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Any updates?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This article seems to paint a morbid picture for the No campaign:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/no-sign-of-shift-in-abortion-referendum-that-no-campaigners-need-1.3495143

What it's basically saying is that the No side probably doesn't have the numbers to win. Their campaigning strategy of screaming "dead babies" is probably not going to appeal to the undecideds and that if we were to see a large shift of momentum that signaled a No win it would've happened by now.

The undecideds sympathize more with the Yes campaigners because they too want to relax Ireland's abortion laws, just not exactly the extent to which the government is proposing. They also talk about how the Yes side has been far better campaigning for the referendum and have chosen a better path at appealing to the middle ground.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The numbers are going to tighten but I still expect a 4-6 point win for Yes.

God forbid the No side wins...

A group of people deciding to restrict an individual's bodily autonomy makes sick.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tetro do you have a prediction?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I initially thought it would be a 'No' and now I'm not so sure. Anything from a 57-43 Yes win to a 60-40 No win wouldn't surprise me. A lot of voters don't have firm opinions on the issue but are generally not warm to the idea of elective abortion but aren't precisely warm to the Pro-Life Movement or the 8th generally.

I agree that a 57-43 Yes win is possible, but I can't really imagine the Yes side's support slumping to 40% in your No scenario. The polls seem to show the Yes at around 46%-48%. But of course, you're the one on the ground.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New polls coming in. It looks increasingly likey the Yes side is going to win.


Sunday Business Post/Red C poll-

Yes: 56% (+3)
No: 27% (+1)

B&A-

Yes: 52% (+5)
No: 24% (-5)

What the polls are showing is that the undecideds are breaking for the Yes campaign.

If a "Brexit" moment for this referendum were to show, now would be the time.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That isn't what those polls show.

The polls are very similar to the gay marriage referendum, so there will probably be a similar range of error. In that case, I predict about 53-47 for Yes.

Well, I just posted the polls

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Predicting a 54-56% vote for Yes.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This guy is giving the turnout reports. Dublin turnout appears to be higher now than it was at this time during the Marriage Referendum.

https://twitter.com/raymcadam/status/1000035016871735296?s=21

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This Central Dublin precinct is at a whopping 66% turnout

https://twitter.com/raymcadam/status/1000003900756430849?s=21

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

At this point, turnout might actually exceed GE figures... at least in Dublin.

https://twitter.com/joanburton/status/1000038691103035392?s=21

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Turnout in parts of Dublin hitting 40% as of 4:30 PM

https://twitter.com/irishtimes/status/1000041644949897216?s=21

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

With two and a half hours left of voting, turnout is hitting 55% in parts of Dublin.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

With two and a half hours left of voting, turnout is hitting 55% in parts of Dublin.

What is turnout in the rest of the country though?

Its pretty high, especially in Dublin. It’s projected to be higher than the 2015 marriage referendum (if Twitter is to be believed).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Roscommon, the only area to vote No in the 2015 marriage referendum, is reporting a rather low turnout of 40.2%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It’s actually kind of funny. The accounts with actual statistics on the turnout are reporting it to be really high in Dublin, while the Pro-Repeal side is freaking out because it’s not at 100%.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wicklow at 67% turnout. This is an expected YES constituency.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Might these turnout figures indicate a bigger than expected win for Yes, should that transpire? I.e., something more like 60/40 or 70/30? *fingers crossed*

Maybe, from the looks of it, the ubran area turnout is far outpacing rural. The Yes campaign is probably feeling far more optimistic and confident than the No camp. I’m cautiously optimistic.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

RTE is reporting that turnout is beginning to hit 70% in some regions.

Turnout for Kerry, a NO region is only at 50%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

We don’t need an RSS feed; Twitter does exist

Just trying to bring a little life to this thread. Isn’t this what it’s for? Discussing the referendum? Honestly, if it bothers you, nobody is forcing you to click on this thread.

Anyways, Malahide, a town on the north side of Dublin is at 71%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Reported turnout higher on East Cost and Cities than in Rural areas. Signs are pointing to a Yes victory.

https://twitter.com/anmailleach/status/1000116332103372800?s=21

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

BREAKING: Irish Times Exit Poll shows that Repeal has won in a landslide

Yes: 68%
No: 32%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

BREAKING: Repeal wins in landslide!

Yes: 68%
No: 32%

Should note this is an exit poll, but this is the only figure we will get until tomorrow.

Counting starts tomorrow at 9AM in Ireland. 3AM EST