2018 Irish 8th Amendment (Abortion) Referendum

[Tetro Kornbluth]

There hasn't been a poll in over a week now and referendums on this nature regularly see sudden shifts at the end of the campaign.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Ftr, I'm increasingly unsure what's going to happen in this, but either way, come at the very latest 5pm on May 26th a lot of people are going to be in complete hysterics.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I initially thought it would be a 'No' and now I'm not so sure. Anything from a 57-43 Yes win to a 60-40 No win wouldn't surprise me. A lot of voters don't have firm opinions on the issue but are generally not warm to the idea of elective abortion but aren't precisely warm to the Pro-Life Movement or the 8th generally.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I initially thought it would be a 'No' and now I'm not so sure. Anything from a 57-43 Yes win to a 60-40 No win wouldn't surprise me. A lot of voters don't have firm opinions on the issue but are generally not warm to the idea of elective abortion but aren't precisely warm to the Pro-Life Movement or the 8th generally.

I agree that a 57-43 Yes win is possible, but I can't really imagine the Yes side's support slumping to 40% in your No scenario. The polls seem to show the Yes at around 46%-48%. But of course, you're the one on the ground.

As it's an issue with a huge amount of undecided voters (all posters note this, which wasn't the case in 2015) that could easily respond en masse to signals in the campaign. I cite you the 1986 referendum on Divorce.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The assumption that there will be a big landslide in Dublin - while likely - is far too idly assumed by the Yes campaign and Media. There isn't that much campaign infrastructure and a lot of it is being driven by people unused to political campaigns. I now live in the Dublin Bay North constituency (which will probably be the best constituency for No in Dublin, but should be comfortably Yes in any result) and it's noticeable how much more No posters there are than Yes ones, and the No has actually been more visible around where I live. Now that may not say much, but does suggest that they are more active knocking on doors and trying to get to attention of its core vote.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Rathdown - where I will be voting - is a distinct possibility for the biggest Dublin No. I agree that 60-65% is likely, and 2002 is a better comparison in some ways than 2015 we are very likely to see much bigger turnout this time than in 2002, and I'm not 100% sure who that will benefit.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

That isn't what those polls show.

The polls are very similar to the gay marriage referendum, so there will probably be a similar range of error. In that case, I predict about 53-47 for Yes.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Literally completely amazed. I was worrying about this vote for months and this happens. Beyond incredible.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

According to an exit poll reported by EuropeElects, FG and SF voters voted 75% in favor of repealing the amendment, but only 50% of FF supporters did.

Is this to be expected? I would’ve expected the liberal party to be more in favor than the Christian democratic party, even with Varadkar supporting it.

EU Parliamentary groups are meaningless. FF voters were always going to be Anti than FG ones due to the current demographic nature of both parties' support base.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Does Ireland publish results by electoral divisions or anything smaller than the 40 constituencies?

Sadly no. There is data collected by the various political party/groupings/organizations and some of it does come public, but not officially published and often released sporadically and not consistently.