CA-SEN: Feinstein has two GOP endorsements

[I’m not Stu]

Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon endorses Feinstein.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Polls show Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily. Which counties might de Leon win? I can only think of 3 de Leon likely wins: Imperial, Mendocino, and Humboldt.

Imperial is a very obvious one for him to win. Mendocino and Humboldt, I could see as well. Maybe some of the heavily Hispanic Central Valley counties as well? Merced, perhaps?

[I’m not Stu]

Polls show Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily. Which counties might de Leon win? I can only think of 3 de Leon likely wins: Imperial, Mendocino, and Humboldt.

Imperial is a very obvious one for him to win. Mendocino and Humboldt, I could see as well. Maybe some of the heavily Hispanic Central Valley counties as well? Merced, perhaps?

He could win Merced, but I'm not sure. It's only 54% Hispanic, and polls show Feinstein easily winning the Hispanic vote. Maybe Santa Cruz? Possibly Trinity if Republicans stay home instead of voting for Feinstein (Trinity Democrats are very liberal)?

[Dr. MB]

Polls show Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily. Which counties might de Leon win? I can only think of 3 de Leon likely wins: Imperial, Mendocino, and Humboldt.

Imperial is a very obvious one for him to win. Mendocino and Humboldt, I could see as well. Maybe some of the heavily Hispanic Central Valley counties as well? Merced, perhaps?

He could win Merced, but I'm not sure. It's only 54% Hispanic, and polls show Feinstein easily winning the Hispanic vote. Maybe Santa Cruz? Possibly Trinity if Republicans stay home instead of voting for Feinstein (Trinity Democrats are very liberal)?

I’d actually guess more Republicans vote de Leon, simply as an anti-DiFi vote.

[I’m not Stu]

Polls show Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily. Which counties might de Leon win? I can only think of 3 de Leon likely wins: Imperial, Mendocino, and Humboldt.

Imperial is a very obvious one for him to win. Mendocino and Humboldt, I could see as well. Maybe some of the heavily Hispanic Central Valley counties as well? Merced, perhaps?

He could win Merced, but I'm not sure. It's only 54% Hispanic, and polls show Feinstein easily winning the Hispanic vote. Maybe Santa Cruz? Possibly Trinity if Republicans stay home instead of voting for Feinstein (Trinity Democrats are very liberal)?

I’d actually guess more Republicans vote de Leon, simply as an anti-DiFi vote.

Do Trinity Republicans tend to be business conservatives (who would vote for Feinstein) or Tea Partiers who loathe Feinstein? De Leon likely wins Trinity Democrats easily.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

If it does come down to D vs D, I think a lot of conservatives will just leave the senate line blank like they did in 2016.

[I’m not Stu]

If it does come down to D vs D, I think a lot of conservatives will just leave the senate line blank like they did in 2016.

Wouldn't that mean de Leon likely wins Trinity?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

If it does come down to D vs D, I think a lot of conservatives will just leave the senate line blank like they did in 2016.

I imagine most Conservatives/Republicans outside of OC  strongly dislike Feinstein as she is the epitome of the "coastal elite" that Republican so strongly oppose  and will thus vote for De Leon just to stick it to the Dem. establishment

[I’m not Stu]

If it does come down to D vs D, I think a lot of conservatives will just leave the senate line blank like they did in 2016.

I imagine most Conservatives/Republicans outside of OC  strongly dislike Feinstein as she is the epitome of the "coastal elite" that Republican so strongly oppose  and will thus vote for De Leon just to stick it to the Dem. establishment

Does Feinstein win OC?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Yes Feinstein wins OC even if she loses re-election. A winning coalition for De Leon includes: much of the Republican inland region and other Trump counties, LA County, Alameda, Imperial, Kern,Sacramento, Fresno, San Bernardino,Riverside, and San Fransisco county.

[I’m not Stu]

Yes Feinstein wins OC even if she loses re-election. A winning coalition for De Leon includes: much of the Republican inland region and other Trump counties, LA County, Alameda, Imperial, Kern,Sacramento, Fresno, San Bernardino,Riverside, and San Fransisco county.

Feinstein has a solid lead in LA County in the polls. Doug Ose (R) endorses Feinstein. A large majority of CA House Democrats endorse Feinstein, even most Progressive Caucus members.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Yes Feinstein wins OC even if she loses re-election. A winning coalition for De Leon includes: much of the Republican inland region and other Trump counties, LA County, Alameda, Imperial, Kern,Sacramento, Fresno, San Bernardino,Riverside, and San Fransisco county.

Feinstein has a solid lead in LA County in the polls. Doug Ose (R) endorses Feinstein. A large majority of CA House Democrats endorse Feinstein, even most Progressive Caucus members.

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I wouldn't really call that an endorsement at this point.

[I’m not Stu]

Yes Feinstein wins OC even if she loses re-election. A winning coalition for De Leon includes: much of the Republican inland region and other Trump counties, LA County, Alameda, Imperial, Kern,Sacramento, Fresno, San Bernardino,Riverside, and San Fransisco county.

Feinstein has a solid lead in LA County in the polls. Doug Ose (R) endorses Feinstein. A large majority of CA House Democrats endorse Feinstein, even most Progressive Caucus members.

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I wouldn't really call that an endorsement at this point.

It will be when the race is D vs. D.

[I’m not Stu]

Yes Feinstein wins OC even if she loses re-election. A winning coalition for De Leon includes: much of the Republican inland region and other Trump counties, LA County, Alameda, Imperial, Kern,Sacramento, Fresno, San Bernardino,Riverside, and San Fransisco county.

Feinstein probably wins LA, Sacramento, San Bernardino, and Riverside. Polls indicate de Leon's chances of winning are slim. He would need to win the Hispanic vote (unlikely) and do far better with non-Hispanics in order to win.

[Canis]

If it does come down to D vs D, I think a lot of conservatives will just leave the senate line blank like they did in 2016.

In 2016 it was
14,181,595 votes in the presidents race
12,244,170 votes in the senate race
so 1,937,425
left the senate part blank which is actually not that much its more than 10% of the presidential vote so it won't be that significant tbh whats more likely is most voters turn out to vote for the governor or senator if its two dvd state wide races its likely many republicans won't turn out in the first place significantly helping us downballot in tight house races

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

If it does come down to D vs D, I think a lot of conservatives will just leave the senate line blank like they did in 2016.

In 2016 it was
14,181,595 votes in the presidents race
12,244,170 votes in the senate race
so 1,937,425
left the senate part blank which is actually not that much its less than 10% of the presidential vote so it won't be that significant tbh whats more likely is most voters turn out to vote for the governor or senator if its two dvd state wide races its likely many republicans won't turn out in the first place significantly helping us downballot in tight house races

I think that some ballot propositions could still bring out conservative voters. I can't keep track of them all, but I believe that there's one that would repeal the recent 12¢ gas tax increase. That would bring out rural conservatives.

I guess I hadn't actually looked at statewide numbers. It's a much more noticeable difference when you look at conservative counties like Modoc and Lassen.

[I’m not Stu]

There's a slight chance de Leon fails to make runoff. If he doesn't, would it have an impact on House races or not? If a Republican advances instead, all that money could be saved for important House races against Republicans instead of a D vs. D Senate race.

[Canis]

There's a slight chance de Leon fails to make runoff. If he doesn't, would it have an impact on House races or not? If a Republican advances instead, all that money could be saved for important House races against Republicans instead of a D vs. D Senate race.

All the republicans in the senate race are no names with no backing from the party i doubt the car gop would waste money to help them when the house is at stake

[Mike Thick]

That De Leon winning only Humboldt and Imperial is a serious possibility is a great reflection of how bizarre this race is

[I’m not Stu]

That De Leon winning only Humboldt and Imperial is a serious possibility is a great reflection of how bizarre this race is

He could win Mendocino, Santa Barbara, Merced, Santa Cruz, and Trinity.

[Mr. Smith]

That De Leon winning only Humboldt and Imperial is a serious possibility is a great reflection of how bizarre this race is

He could win Mendocino, Santa Barbara, Merced, Santa Cruz, and Trinity.

I wouldn't discount Yolo or Lake either

[Canis]

Can we just have one thread for the CA senate race?
anyway
California Labor Foundation a huge group has endorsed Kevin and Gavin
https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Gavin-Newsom-Kevin-de-Leon-win-backing-of-major-12830269.php

[I’m not Stu]

Will Orange County vote for more establishment candidates, or will it vote for insurgent Berniecrats (like Delaine Eastin)?

[Canis]

They will support whoever is the most business friendly so they will likely support Feinstein a republican has a decent chance at winning it but if they don't campaign at all which is likely Feinstein will win it so OC is pretty much almost Safe Difi

[I’m not Stu]

They will support whoever is the most business friendly so they will likely support Feinstein a republican has a decent chance at winning it but if they don't campaign at all which is likely Feinstein will win it so OC is pretty much almost Safe Difi

Does this mean Newsom, Villaraigosa, or Chiang would win OC in a runoff against Eastin?