What counties would O'Rourke have to do well in for him to have a chance?
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Author Topic: What counties would O'Rourke have to do well in for him to have a chance?  (Read 598 times)
History505
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« on: October 24, 2018, 01:29:18 PM »
If O'Rourke wants to have a chance at winning, what Texan counties would he have to do well in and by what margin?
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2018, 01:52:14 PM »
I made county benchmarks for a narrow Beto win earlier on the TX-SEN thread

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261509.msg6407062#msg6407062



However, the turnout for this is probably too low in comparison to what we are seeing in the early vote, so I may go back and adjust it at some point prior to election day for higher turnout, after early voting is done and we see how high that turnout is.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2018, 02:11:56 PM »
Tarrant is pretty much the perfect bellwether.
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Badger
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2018, 07:48:13 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 24, 2018, 02:11:56 PM
Tarrant is pretty much the perfect bellwether.

Was just coming here to post that. If I had to guess this year it would go an extra percentage Point or two towards o'roarke. Yes it is conceivable in an ultra close race which this could very well be that he wins Tarrant County but loses Statewide. Still, that's the county I'm going to watch.
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Skye
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2018, 07:55:58 PM »
Probably every county that contains the important metro areas (Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio), since I don't think the swings will be that large in rural TX.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2018, 07:59:15 PM »
Nueces
Tarrant
Williamson

He'd need to win all of them outright to actually win. That is easier said than done.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2018, 08:00:31 PM »
Definitely Tarrent county
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Very Legal & Very Cool
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2018, 11:40:50 PM »
He needs to do some damage in Harris County
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