Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 26, 2019, 04:58:06 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MO-Mason/Dixon: McCaskill +1
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: MO-Mason/Dixon: McCaskill +1  (Read 3770 times)
The Other Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,884
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 11, 2018, 04:28:20 pm »

Claire McCaskill - 45%
Josh Hawley - 44%

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/hawley-mccaskill-in-tight-poll-match-but-hawley-relatively-unknown/article_3248fa57-69c0-58f8-9cc1-194362766e0b.html
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,280
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2018, 04:29:07 pm »

Itís gonna be a close one!
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,577
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2018, 04:31:53 pm »

Hawley ain't winning
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,453


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2018, 04:32:37 pm »

For reference, Akin led McCaskill in every poll from March to August in 2012: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2012#Polling_2
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,280
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2018, 04:52:16 pm »


she wonít beat Hawley by that margin, of course, but thatís actually a pretty positive sign
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,453


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2018, 04:58:12 pm »


she wonít beat Hawley by that margin, of course, but thatís actually a pretty positive sign

Yep. By my count, McCaskill has posted (1-2 point) leads in recent-ish PPP, Mason-Dixon, and Gravis polls, while Hawley led by 3 in the most recent Remington survey and by 8 in the trashy Axios poll. So the average is something like 45-44 Hawley, but that's obviously positively skewed.
Logged
Pittsburgh For Kamala
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,933
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2018, 05:18:13 pm »

Yeah, McCaskill should pull this off. Aikin was leading her in the vast majority of the polls in 2012, while Hawley is currently struggling, both financially and in the polls.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,003
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2018, 05:20:31 pm »
« Edited: April 11, 2018, 05:28:48 pm by Devout Centrist »

She's leading in a Mason-Dixon poll?! By god, the GOP really is going to blow it again!
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,280
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2018, 05:34:41 pm »


she wonít beat Hawley by that margin, of course, but thatís actually a pretty positive sign

Yep. By my count, McCaskill has posted (1-2 point) leads in recent-ish PPP, Mason-Dixon, and Gravis polls, while Hawley led by 3 in the most recent Remington survey and by 8 in the trashy Axios poll. So the average is something like 45-44 Hawley, but that's obviously positively skewed.

Whatís the average without Axios?
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,777
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 11, 2018, 05:38:22 pm »

Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,777
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2018, 05:39:11 pm »


This is a pre-labor poll within the MoE. Hold your load.
Logged
Lean Branson
Doctor Imperialism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,038


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2018, 05:39:55 pm »

She's leading in a Mason-Dixon poll?! By god, the GOP really is going to blow it again!
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,453


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 11, 2018, 05:40:46 pm »


she wonít beat Hawley by that margin, of course, but thatís actually a pretty positive sign

Yep. By my count, McCaskill has posted (1-2 point) leads in recent-ish PPP, Mason-Dixon, and Gravis polls, while Hawley led by 3 in the most recent Remington survey and by 8 in the trashy Axios poll. So the average is something like 45-44 Hawley, but that's obviously positively skewed.

Whatís the average without Axios?

It's 46-44 Hawley with the Axios and 44-44 w/o.
Logged
Spenstar
Spenstar3D
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,124
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -7.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: April 11, 2018, 06:06:24 pm »

This is a pure, weapons-grade tossup.
Logged
DTC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,132


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: April 11, 2018, 06:07:06 pm »

Yeah I have this race as McCaskill + 1 too
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,280
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: April 11, 2018, 06:27:45 pm »


she wonít beat Hawley by that margin, of course, but thatís actually a pretty positive sign

Yep. By my count, McCaskill has posted (1-2 point) leads in recent-ish PPP, Mason-Dixon, and Gravis polls, while Hawley led by 3 in the most recent Remington survey and by 8 in the trashy Axios poll. So the average is something like 45-44 Hawley, but that's obviously positively skewed.

Whatís the average without Axios?

It's 46-44 Hawley with the Axios and 44-44 w/o.

Thank you.

This is a pure, weapons-grade tossup.

My new favorite description
Logged
Spiral
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,314
Bosnia and Herzegovina


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: April 11, 2018, 08:05:51 pm »


Yeah, it's been evident for a while. That's especially considering the national climate and our evil rapist governor.
Logged
Pittsburgh For Kamala
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,933
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: April 11, 2018, 08:08:29 pm »


Yeah, it's been evident for a while. That's especially considering the national climate and our evil rapist governor.

Why is Missouri such a hotbed for the nation's worst male politicians?
Logged
Gass3268
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,521
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: April 11, 2018, 08:13:26 pm »

Logged
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,252
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: April 11, 2018, 09:02:49 pm »

tilt R.
Logged
Canis
canis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,293


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -7.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: April 11, 2018, 09:45:49 pm »



McCaskillís still got plenty of material to tie him to Greitens
Yeah if he thinks this will save him hes got another thing coming Mccaskill is our version of Mcconnell a absolute brutal campaigner
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,573
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: April 11, 2018, 11:05:37 pm »


Honorable move from a great future senator!
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,003
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: April 11, 2018, 11:29:46 pm »


Honorable move from a great future senator!
"""""Honorable""""""
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: April 12, 2018, 03:42:23 am »

Wait until she starts airing ads tying her 'Pub opponent to supporting Trump Trade policies against China targeting rural MO areas heavily dependent upon farming where the collapse of international agricultural commodity pricing led farmers to attempt to "export" their way out of the financial hole in the early 2010s, and are now at the front lines of a potential Trade War with China....

I suspect various local aspects on this theme are going to emerge as move towards November 2018.

Even though I tend to be a bit more "Protectionist" on Trade Policies than many, I thought it strange that in Nov 16 there were massive swings towards Trump in Farm Country" within the Grain Belt, considering his economic platform was one where smaller farmers would be inherently hit hard if he were to fulfill his economic policy platform (If you could call it that)....

Chickens will likely come home to roost in November in parts of the US most directly impacted by a reckless style of international trade negotiations....
Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,625
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: April 12, 2018, 04:54:03 am »

McCaskill is certainly putting up a far better fight than I originally expected. At the end of the day it is tough to see the votes coming together for any Democratic Senate Candidate to reach 50% in a lockstep R+22 state, but if there is a way to do it, McCaskill appears poised to find it.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC